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2018 Draft RB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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I just finished my first ranking of some of the RBs in this class from a bit of film study. It's pretty unconventional, but I thought I'd share anyway.

1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Barkley is a rare, explosive talent. The one problem I have with Barkley is the odd occurrence where he doesn't fight for extra yardage, but he's otherwise an elite prospect.

2. Damien Harris, Alabama - I said it was unconventional. To me, Harris has shown ability as a pass protector, which will garner huge interest from many teams. He also has an underrated explosive short-area burst and very good vision.

3. Mark Walton, Miami - The one thing that'll really hurt Walton is that teams will be concerned with his injury. Otherwise, he's a solid prospect. He has an explosive burst and can stick his foot in the ground and go. He also flashes some serious talent in the receiving game and some as a pass protector, but you can sometimes question his motor. With Harris and Walton, it's pick-your-poison: Harris is a better pass protector, and Walton is a better receiver. 

4. Sony Michel, Georgia - Michel has a good combination of power and elusiveness to me. He doesn't use his power much, but he has solid leg drive. He can be a liability in pass protection and isn't a great receiver, but he's very explosive and is dangerous in the open field.

5. Bryce Love, Stanford - Love is an explosive but undersized back with elite speed. He's an agile runner with decent receiving experience, but gets docked for being relatively easy to tackle. 

6. Nick Chubb, Georgia - If Chubb can develop in the other areas of the game besides just a runner, he could be the top of this class. He's a powerful, fast back with a good second gear and burst. He can break tackles more easily than some of his peers, but he displays only moderate agility at times. With a good championship performance, he'll certainly leapfrog Love.

7. Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Penny is an explosive athlete who can do damage as a running back and in the return game. However, he displays stiff hips sometimes and may be relegated to a one-cut back. Penny has elite potential with great burst and vision.

8. Myles Gaskin, Washington - I'll get to some of the more popular RBs later. Gaskin is an underrated back. He scored 19 TDs in 2017! Gaskin is an explosive runner with experience as a receiver who displays great vision. Surprisingly, Gaskin is also a good pass protector despite his size. The one major question mark with Gaskin is his size and thereby ineffectiveness on inside runs. However, Gaskin is an explosive athlete who could be a good centerpiece if he lands in the right offense.

9. Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - I know I'm low on Johnson. He's a fluid athlete who is capable of creating for himself when nothing is there in front of him. He's adept at manipulating his stride lengths as a tool to distract defenders or generate power from different angles. However, I don't see an elite second-level gear or elite burst to Johnson, and to me that really hurts his stock, as the NFL scouting process nowadays is all about "explosiveness." Johnson will be a successful back, but I don't think he's an explosive back between the 20's and he falls for that reason.

10. Ronald Jones II, USC - Jones impressed me with his experience as a receiver and with a good second gear. He's a well-rounded back with receiving ability, physicality, and elusiveness, but, like Johnson, he falls in my rankings because he's not quite as explosive as some of the higher-up-the-list backs.

11. Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Wadley is a small back who doesn't do well in pass protection or running up the middle. However, he features eye-popping acceleration, good short-area burst, and good agility that will make him  valuable asset to an NFL team. Wadley is also docked for his size.

12. Derrius Guice, LSU - This is the guy who dropped off a cliff in my rankings compared to common ideas. He's a good all-around back, but he lacks some ability receiving and in pass protection, and sometimes fails to reach the second level. He's a solid short-yardage running back with average explosiveness who lacks elite acceleration, and I'm concerned that may hinder his NFL potential. However, Guice's mix of physicality and elusiveness will make him a good option if he can become even more well-rounded.

13. Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Scarbrough is a bruising runner who I docked for a variety of factors. First of all, he has underdeveloped vision and will sometimes just attack the defender. He also lacks home-run ability and isn't a very good pass blocker, which is concerning given his bulky frame and power. 

14. Martez Carter, Grambling State - Carter is an undersized back with elite speed who plays against shaky competition. He has unbelievable burst and track speed, making him a home-run threat, but he doesn't often gear up at the second level. He usually hits his (very, very high) top speed when he hits the hole and just coasts at the second level, pulling away by virtue of his initial speed. Carter is also inexperienced as a pass protector and rarely runs through the middle, which will hurt his draft stock as it shows he isn't overly versatile as a runner. I also docked Carter, as his competition often left him running through gaping holes and without having to break many tackles or hit small holes.

15. Royce Freeman, Oregon - Freeman is a thickly-built running back with good burst but who lacks home-run ability. In addition, he lacks some lateral agility and doesn't have elite speed. He doesn't have well-developed technique as a pass protector and doesn't really display many special traits as a running back. He's a well-rounded runner but may struggle to find playing time in the NFL without improving in other areas.

Honorable Mention: Josh Adams, Notre Dame - Adams has good burst but I can't get away from the fact that he plays for Notre Dame. He's rarely tested at the line thanks to ND having the best left side of an offensive line in college football (LT Mike McGlinchey and LG Quenton Nelson). He doesn't have to anticipate small gaps and bust through them or have to break many tackles. Simply, a lot of his work is cut out for him. He's a powerful runner with good burst, but I don't know how his tools would really match up with an average college offensive line.

Update: I haven't looked at Arizona State RB Kalen Ballage yet, but have heard mixed reviews. L.J. Scott is going back to MSU, so he's ineligible for the list.

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2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

I just finished my first ranking of some of the RBs in this class from a bit of film study. It's pretty unconventional, but I thought I'd share anyway.

1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Barkley is a rare, explosive talent. The one problem I have with Barkley is the odd occurrence where he doesn't fight for extra yardage, but he's otherwise an elite prospect.

2. Damien Harris, Alabama - I said it was unconventional. To me, Harris has shown ability as a pass protector, which will garner huge interest from many teams. He also has an underrated explosive short-area burst and very good vision.

3. Mark Walton, Miami - The one thing that'll really hurt Walton is that teams will be concerned with his injury. Otherwise, he's a solid prospect. He has an explosive burst and can stick his foot in the ground and go. He also flashes some serious talent in the receiving game and some as a pass protector, but you can sometimes question his motor.

4. Sony Michel, Georgia - Michel has a good combination of power and elusiveness to me. He doesn't use his power much, but he has solid leg drive. He can be a liability in pass protection and isn't a great receiver, but he's very explosive and is dangerous in the open field.

5. Bryce Love, Stanford - Love is an explosive but undersized back with elite speed. He's an agile runner with decent receiving experience, but gets docked for being relatively easy to tackle.

6. Nick Chubb, Georgia - If Chubb can develop in the other areas of the game besides just a runner, he could be the top of this class. He's a powerful, fast back with a good second gear and burst. He can break tackles more easily than some of his peers, but he displays only moderate agility at times.

7. Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Penny is an explosive athlete who can do damage as a running back and in the return game. However, he displays stiff hips sometimes and may be relegated to a one-cut back. Penny has elite potential with great burst and vision.

8. Myles Gaskin, Washington - I'll get to some of the more popular RBs later. Gaskin is an underrated back. He scored 19 TDs in 2017! Gaskin is an explosive runner with experience as a receiver who displays great vision. Surprisingly, Gaskin is also a good pass protector despite his size. The one major question mark with Gaskin is his size and thereby ineffectiveness on inside runs. However, Gaskin is an explosive athlete who could be a good centerpiece if he lands in the right offense.

9. Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - I know I'm low on Johnson. He's a fluid athlete who is capable of creating for himself when nothing is there in front of him. He's adept at manipulating his stride lengths as a tool to distract defenders or generate power from different angles. However, I don't see an elite second-level gear or elite burst to Johnson, and to me that really hurts his stock, as the NFL scouting process nowadays is all about "explosiveness." Johnson will be a successful back, but I don't think he's an explosive back between the 20's and he falls for that reason.

10. Ronald Jones II, USC - Jones impressed me with his experience as a receiver and with a good second gear. He's a well-rounded back with receiving ability, physicality, and elusiveness, but, like Johnson, he falls in my rankings because he's not quite as explosive as some of the higher-up-the-list backs.

11. Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Wadley is a small back who doesn't do well in pass protection or running up the middle. However, he features eye-popping acceleration, good short-area burst, and good agility that will make him  valuable asset to an NFL team. Wadley is also docked for his size.

12. Derrius Guice, LSU - This is the guy who dropped off a cliff in my rankings compared to common ideas. He's a good all-around back, but he lacks some ability receiving and in pass protection, and sometimes fails to reach the second level. He's a solid short-yardage running back with average explosiveness who lacks elite acceleration, and I'm concerned that may hinder his NFL potential. However, Guice's mix of physicality and elusiveness will make him a good option if he can become even more well-rounded.

13. Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Scarbrough is a bruising runner who I docked for a variety of factors. First of all, he has underdeveloped vision and will sometimes just attack the defender. He also lacks home-run ability and isn't a very good pass blocker, which is concerning given his bulky frame and power. 

14. Martez Carter, Grambling State - Carter is an undersized back with elite speed who plays against shaky competition. He has unbelievable burst and track speed, making him a home-run threat, but he doesn't often gear up at the second level. He usually hits his (very, very high) top speed when he hits the hole and just coasts at the second level, pulling away by virtue of his initial speed. Carter is also inexperienced as a pass protector and rarely runs through the middle, which will hurt his draft stock as it shows he isn't overly versatile as a runner. I also docked Carter, as his competition often left him running through gaping holes and without having to break many tackles or hit small holes.

15. Royce Freeman, Oregon - Freeman is a thickly-built running back with good burst but who lacks home-run ability. In addition, he lacks some lateral agility and doesn't have elite speed. He doesn't have well-developed technique as a pass protector and doesn't really display many special traits as a running back. He's a well-rounded runner but may struggle to find playing time in the NFL without improving in other areas.

Honorable Mention: Josh Adams, Notre Dame - Adams has good burst but I can't get away from the fact that he plays for Notre Dame. He's rarely tested at the line thanks to ND having the best left side of an offensive line in college football (LT Mike McGlinchey and LG Quenton Nelson). He doesn't have to anticipate small gaps and bust through them or have to break many tackles. Simply, a lot of his work is cut out for him. He's a powerful runner with good burst, but I don't know how his tools would really match up with an average college offensive line.

I'm impressed you have 15 ranked already. I need to watch more tape. But Chubb developing in other areas still wouldn't make him the top of the class over Barkley. I am a UGA fan.

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I think you'll find 100% of the draft picks who become great players in the NFL love to compete, and the last thing they would think about is skipping a bowl game. Barkley and others "get it", they understand the very tiny injury risk of playing in these games, and realize the potential for improving their draft stock. While Barkley's draft stock was already high, he wanted to see Penn State triumph in a major bowl game. I'm not a PSU fan, but that was important to the program, several years removed from the scandal.

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15 hours ago, Counselor said:

I'm impressed you have 15 ranked already. I need to watch more tape. But Chubb developing in other areas still wouldn't make him the top of the class over Barkley. I am a UGA fan.

Yeah I meant outside of Barkley, sorry. Wasn't sure if that would be implied by how good Barkley is.

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5 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Barkley plays against teams that take worse angles? Chubb plays against teams that take better angles? Pretty bold to predict how well NFL defenders will take angles against them. 

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On 1/1/2018 at 8:27 AM, LaserFocus said:

I think you'll find 100% of the draft picks who become great players in the NFL love to compete, and the last thing they would think about is skipping a bowl game. Barkley and others "get it", they understand the very tiny injury risk of playing in these games, and realize the potential for improving their draft stock. While Barkley's draft stock was already high, he wanted to see Penn State triumph in a major bowl game. I'm not a PSU fan, but that was important to the program, several years removed from the scandal.

Nah there has been literally no correlation showing that skipping the bowl game means that a prospect doesn't "get it", and won't be a great NFL player that loves to compete

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I'm one of the few people here that really love Chubb at RB. I like his balance, vision, and ability to break arm tackles. He's faster/more explosive than most give him credit for, but he's not a burner. I think that he's one of the few RB's out there with vision and cutback ability to play in either a gap or zone scheme at the NFL level.

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5 hours ago, MWil23 said:

I'm one of the few people here that really love Chubb at RB. I like his balance, vision, and ability to break arm tackles. He's faster/more explosive than most give him credit for, but he's not a burner. I think that he's one of the few RB's out there with vision and cutback ability to play in either a gap or zone scheme at the NFL level.

I'm already on record as liking Michel more - but that's more from a fantasy perspective.  Dual-threat guys are just more valuable these days.  In real life, Chubb looks like he would be a really strong bellcow, with decent (but not elite) pass-catching skills.   That's actually somewhat undervalued these days - everyone is looking for the David Johnson, Leveon Bell, even Zeke Elliott, who is seen as the do-it-all back.   

Michel was my favorite value back because before last night, I didn't see him going before Rd 3 - that's probably out the window lol.

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I'm a Penn State fan and certainly biased. But there really seems to be something special about Barkley. He's also a really good person off the field as well. 

I really would prefer he didn't go the Browns or the Giants, but it looks like a solid bet at this point.

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