Around The League V.2

[true2form]

4 hours ago, big_palooka said:

That was my point. The AFC is now stacked with QB talent and it's very competitive.

You said it wasn't as competitive.  I'm pointing out it was and probably more so.

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, true2form said:

You said it wasn't as competitive.  I'm pointing out it was and probably more so.

Could be recency bias on my end. But I feel like the balance of power at QB has shifted to the AFC dramatically. 

[Jerry]

7 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

 

I have never placed all the blame on Carr but after the 2017 WFT game, more so than the injury, he started playing scared.  Weeks 1 and 2 he had 2 of his top 3 games for the year and the only other good game was against KC before December which he usually played well in.

Playing off script going back to 2016 he averaged just over 60 pass attempts outside of the pocket and in 2016 he got out of the pocket 69 times.  Not a big difference.  

Derek Carr Year-by-Year Outside-the-Pocket Stats
Year	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT	Comp%	Y/A	ANY/A	Sack%
2016	69	32	291	3	0	46.4%	4.2	4.7	6.8%
2017	66	31	287	3	0	47.0%	4.3	4.6	5.7%
2018	51	25	215	2	2	49.0%	4.2	3.1	1.9%
2019	58	42	344	4	0	72.4%	5.9	6.1	2.9%
2020	65	32	341	5	0	49.2%	5.2	6.3	5.8%
2021	63	30	338	2	1	47.6%	5.4	4.1	12.5%
2022	50	26	280	1	0	52.0%	5.6	4.5	10.7%

As for 2016 I do not even think he was a great QB that year.  I would say he was a great game manager and took care of the football.  I have already gone over the stats over and over again but the biggest indicator of our team success was being at a +15 TO ratio.  Theme for 2016 was Carr throwing a late TD but needing the defense to close out the game with more than enough time for the opposing offense to score.

As for blaming JMD for players for quitting when the play breaks down that has been happening the entire time.  In fact I would say last year was the first time I say players not quitting all the time.  Maybe that had more to do with DA than JMD but I do not know.

Carr is more than capable physically of going off script and running but he just does not know how or does not show it.  How many times have you seen Carr tuck the ball to run and force the LBer or S to commit?  He almost never does.  He will generally run parallel to the sideline.  If he just started up field it would open up the pass or he has an easy running lane.  No reason that every QB in the league should not know this when it is taught to high school QBs.

Now setting up Carr for success was done in 2015 and 2017 if it was done in 2016.  They were very similar rosters. 2015 they were young and growing together and this includes Carr also.  2016 it all came together and the ball bounced their way repeatedly.  2017 started off hot but then I believe the team quit on JDR and Carr week 3.  The defense in 2017 actually allowed less points than in 2016.

 

2015 roster differences came on the OL and defense.  We added KO at LG and moved Gabe Jackson to RG.  We had 3 probowlers with one of them making 1st team all-pro (KO).  We added Bruce Irvin and Sean Smith who were both very significant upgrades from Aldon Smith and DJ Hayden.  Reggie Nelson had a great year as well but it's kind of a wash when you consider the fact that C. Woodson had 5 INTs in 2015 as well.

Like you said, 2016 it all came together.  Derek Carr the game manager had 7 game winning drives fwiw.  I'm not going to bring them all up.  At least he got us there.  The defense having to close it out wouldn't have ever even been a thing if we never took the lead.

2017 we changed OCs.  Bill Musgrave had Carr running like a well-oiled machine.  Todd Downing was overhyped and underperformed.  Our offense suffered because of the change.  Defense couldn't create turnovers at the same level.  Reggie Nelson was no longer in the right place at the right time.  David Amerson missed games and Sean Smith went to jail.  I think I recall us all seeing Crabtree had lost a step too.  He was gone after 2017.  

Coaching matters.  Gruden told him to run, he ran, for six TDs in the 3 years he was coached by him.  McDonald's probably tells Carr to run parallel to the line of scrimmage because he's trying to find a WR open.  I don't think McDonald's wants Carr to run.  Like I previously stated I believe McDonald's wants him to pass because he believes every play he runs should have a WR open.  

I wonder how Jimmy G is going to fair in this system when plays breaks down and he has to extend plays and go off script.  I don't think it's going to go well.  I'm sure if he tries to run for a first down he'll probably end up needing shoulder and foot surgery again.

[Jerry]

42 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Could be recency bias on my end. But I feel like the balance of power at QB has shifted to the AFC dramatically. 

This offseason absolutely.  The arguably best QB in the NFC (A. Rodgers) just went to the Jets.  Tom Brady just retired.  M. Stafford played terribly last season and missed games.

 

[drfrey13]

4 hours ago, Jerry said:

2015 roster differences came on the OL and defense.  We added KO at LG and moved Gabe Jackson to RG.  We had 3 probowlers with one of them making 1st team all-pro (KO).  We added Bruce Irvin and Sean Smith who were both very significant upgrades from Aldon Smith and DJ Hayden.  Reggie Nelson had a great year as well but it's kind of a wash when you consider the fact that C. Woodson had 5 INTs in 2015 as well.

Like you said, 2016 it all came together.  Derek Carr the game manager had 7 game winning drives fwiw.  I'm not going to bring them all up.  At least he got us there.  The defense having to close it out wouldn't have ever even been a thing if we never took the lead.

2017 we changed OCs.  Bill Musgrave had Carr running like a well-oiled machine.  Todd Downing was overhyped and underperformed.  Our offense suffered because of the change.  Defense couldn't create turnovers at the same level.  Reggie Nelson was no longer in the right place at the right time.  David Amerson missed games and Sean Smith went to jail.  I think I recall us all seeing Crabtree had lost a step too.  He was gone after 2017.  

Coaching matters.  Gruden told him to run, he ran, for six TDs in the 3 years he was coached by him.  McDonald's probably tells Carr to run parallel to the line of scrimmage because he's trying to find a WR open.  I don't think McDonald's wants Carr to run.  Like I previously stated I believe McDonald's wants him to pass because he believes every play he runs should have a WR open.  

I wonder how Jimmy G is going to fair in this system when plays breaks down and he has to extend plays and go off script.  I don't think it's going to go well.  I'm sure if he tries to run for a first down he'll probably end up needing shoulder and foot surgery again.

None of those changes made that big of a difference.  Some where not really improvements.  Sean Smith use to get smoked.  The biggest difference is the one I always point to.  The TO difference.  KO was an improvement but that was just one OG.  The reason why we had 3 pro bowlers was they got the attention of the league because we were winning.  We had better line play in 2015 than in 2017 but we still had the same 3 make the pro bowl in 2017.  Carr's numbers where better in 2015 than 2016 with the exception of interceptions which points to what I said about TOs.

As for game winning drives I will go 1 by 1.

Saints:  Carr gets all the credit in the world along with the run game.  This was the opposite of the TB game.

Ravens:  We get the ball back and instead of taking a methodical approach and running down the clock we score in under 1:30 giving the ball back to Baltimore with over 2 minutes down by 1.  It was great to take the lead but in close games you do not want to give the ball back with that much time.

Tampa:  The game nobody wanted to win.  Carr's stats look all world but it really was not a good game for anybody.  Just go back and watch the game.  We needed 3 tries in OT and on the last play it was a 4th down that 2 TB players did a better job of tackling each other that allowed Roberts to walk in.  I will give him the comeback win here because we should have been able to kick a short FG but both teams should have taken an L in this game.

Texans:  They score the winning TD with 4:43 left.  Technically a game winning drive but once again I do not consider it that when you leave that much time on the clock.  It should be called a game winning stop by the defense.  Just personal opinion.

Panthers:  We kick a FG after getting to the 5 with 1:43 remaining.  Close enough but it is once again the defense that comes up with a big stop.  Mack with a FF and FR with 1 minute left.

Bills: We go up for good with 14:15 in the 4th.  On the next drive the defense holds them to 2 yards and a punt.  The offense then gets 19 yards and a punt. Then the defense gets a TO in the redzone for Carr to go 17 yards for the go a double digit lead and then cause another TO on the Bills next drive again.  All Carr does for the last 3:20 is hand the ball off and watch the defense.

SD:  The defense gives the offense every chance to score. The game tying FG in the forth was from a FR at the SD 14.  and the GW FG the offense got the ball back at mid field.  The defense held the Charges to 23 net yards in their last 4 drives.

I am not saying any of this to defend the current team.  Just addressing my opinion that Carr, although good, was overrated in 2016.  Like I said the roster difference was not that great.  The biggest difference was TO ratio which went from +1 to +16 in 2016.  Most of which was from Carr having 23 TOs in 2015 and getting that down to 11 in 2016.  The defensive improved but went from 25 to 30.  The scoring difference was from extra FGs(8 extra) and rushing TDs(10 extra).

2017 it is true that the defense could not get TOs they went from 30 to 14.   The offense also increased their TOs by 14 with 9 of those coming from Carr.  As for injuries they happen every year.  As for the OC change that is Carr's fault.  From what I remember Downing was Carr's guy.

I highly doubt JMD teaches to run parallel to the LOS.  Even Brady does not do that.  Sometimes you have to help the WR get open.  One way is to let them know you will run.  Another way is to make the defender come up and stop you leaving your guy alone.

[raidr4life]

35 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

None of those changes made that big of a difference.  Some where not really improvements.  Sean Smith use to get smoked.  The biggest difference is the one I always point to.  The TO difference.  KO was an improvement but that was just one OG.  The reason why we had 3 pro bowlers was they got the attention of the league because we were winning.  We had better line play in 2015 than in 2017 but we still had the same 3 make the pro bowl in 2017.  Carr's numbers where better in 2015 than 2016 with the exception of interceptions which points to what I said about TOs.

As for game winning drives I will go 1 by 1.

Saints:  Carr gets all the credit in the world along with the run game.  This was the opposite of the TB game.

Ravens:  We get the ball back and instead of taking a methodical approach and running down the clock we score in under 1:30 giving the ball back to Baltimore with over 2 minutes down by 1.  It was great to take the lead but in close games you do not want to give the ball back with that much time.

Tampa:  The game nobody wanted to win.  Carr's stats look all world but it really was not a good game for anybody.  Just go back and watch the game.  We needed 3 tries in OT and on the last play it was a 4th down that 2 TB players did a better job of tackling each other that allowed Roberts to walk in.  I will give him the comeback win here because we should have been able to kick a short FG but both teams should have taken an L in this game.

Texans:  They score the winning TD with 4:43 left.  Technically a game winning drive but once again I do not consider it that when you leave that much time on the clock.  It should be called a game winning stop by the defense.  Just personal opinion.

Panthers:  We kick a FG after getting to the 5 with 1:43 remaining.  Close enough but it is once again the defense that comes up with a big stop.  Mack with a FF and FR with 1 minute left.

Bills: We go up for good with 14:15 in the 4th.  On the next drive the defense holds them to 2 yards and a punt.  The offense then gets 19 yards and a punt. Then the defense gets a TO in the redzone for Carr to go 17 yards for the go a double digit lead and then cause another TO on the Bills next drive again.  All Carr does for the last 3:20 is hand the ball off and watch the defense.

SD:  The defense gives the offense every chance to score. The game tying FG in the forth was from a FR at the SD 14.  and the GW FG the offense got the ball back at mid field.  The defense held the Charges to 23 net yards in their last 4 drives.

I am not saying any of this to defend the current team.  Just addressing my opinion that Carr, although good, was overrated in 2016.  Like I said the roster difference was not that great.  The biggest difference was TO ratio which went from +1 to +16 in 2016.  Most of which was from Carr having 23 TOs in 2015 and getting that down to 11 in 2016.  The defensive improved but went from 25 to 30.  The scoring difference was from extra FGs(8 extra) and rushing TDs(10 extra).

2017 it is true that the defense could not get TOs they went from 30 to 14.   The offense also increased their TOs by 14 with 9 of those coming from Carr.  As for injuries they happen every year.  As for the OC change that is Carr's fault.  From what I remember Downing was Carr's guy.

I highly doubt JMD teaches to run parallel to the LOS.  Even Brady does not do that.  Sometimes you have to help the WR get open.  One way is to let them know you will run.  Another way is to make the defender come up and stop you leaving your guy alone.

It's like he handicapped himself, teams didn't even have to practice for Carr running they knew he never leaves the pocket, he would have start making them pay some games look a lot different.

[Jerry]

2 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

None of those changes made that big of a difference.  Some where not really improvements.  Sean Smith use to get smoked.  The biggest difference is the one I always point to.  The TO difference.  KO was an improvement but that was just one OG.  The reason why we had 3 pro bowlers was they got the attention of the league because we were winning.  We had better line play in 2015 than in 2017 but we still had the same 3 make the pro bowl in 2017.  Carr's numbers where better in 2015 than 2016 with the exception of interceptions which points to what I said about TOs.

As for game winning drives I will go 1 by 1.

Saints:  Carr gets all the credit in the world along with the run game.  This was the opposite of the TB game.

Ravens:  We get the ball back and instead of taking a methodical approach and running down the clock we score in under 1:30 giving the ball back to Baltimore with over 2 minutes down by 1.  It was great to take the lead but in close games you do not want to give the ball back with that much time.

Tampa:  The game nobody wanted to win.  Carr's stats look all world but it really was not a good game for anybody.  Just go back and watch the game.  We needed 3 tries in OT and on the last play it was a 4th down that 2 TB players did a better job of tackling each other that allowed Roberts to walk in.  I will give him the comeback win here because we should have been able to kick a short FG but both teams should have taken an L in this game.

Texans:  They score the winning TD with 4:43 left.  Technically a game winning drive but once again I do not consider it that when you leave that much time on the clock.  It should be called a game winning stop by the defense.  Just personal opinion.

Panthers:  We kick a FG after getting to the 5 with 1:43 remaining.  Close enough but it is once again the defense that comes up with a big stop.  Mack with a FF and FR with 1 minute left.

Bills: We go up for good with 14:15 in the 4th.  On the next drive the defense holds them to 2 yards and a punt.  The offense then gets 19 yards and a punt. Then the defense gets a TO in the redzone for Carr to go 17 yards for the go a double digit lead and then cause another TO on the Bills next drive again.  All Carr does for the last 3:20 is hand the ball off and watch the defense.

SD:  The defense gives the offense every chance to score. The game tying FG in the forth was from a FR at the SD 14.  and the GW FG the offense got the ball back at mid field.  The defense held the Charges to 23 net yards in their last 4 drives.

I am not saying any of this to defend the current team.  Just addressing my opinion that Carr, although good, was overrated in 2016.  Like I said the roster difference was not that great.  The biggest difference was TO ratio which went from +1 to +16 in 2016.  Most of which was from Carr having 23 TOs in 2015 and getting that down to 11 in 2016.  The defensive improved but went from 25 to 30.  The scoring difference was from extra FGs(8 extra) and rushing TDs(10 extra).

2017 it is true that the defense could not get TOs they went from 30 to 14.   The offense also increased their TOs by 14 with 9 of those coming from Carr.  As for injuries they happen every year.  As for the OC change that is Carr's fault.  From what I remember Downing was Carr's guy.

I highly doubt JMD teaches to run parallel to the LOS.  Even Brady does not do that.  Sometimes you have to help the WR get open.  One way is to let them know you will run.  Another way is to make the defender come up and stop you leaving your guy alone.

https://heavy.com/sports/las-vegas-raiders/jack-del-rio-fired-bill-musgrave/amp/
 

Jack Del Rio was apparently upset with how much money he was making? Read another article with Del Rio saying he has good reason but never elaborated. I don’t think Del Rio and Musgrave got along.

As for your statement on the additions that made 2016 a 12-4 season. Sean Smith was better than Hayden, Irvin was better than Aldon Smith, and adding KO at LG and moving G Jackson to RG took our line from really good to elite.  I don’t really understand how you can underplay those additions.

Carr led our offense to scoring more points 12x that season. At the end of the day if you’re going to place blame on him for our losses then you should provide him the same blame (credit) for those wins as well.

I’m ready to move on from Carr discussions. It doesn’t matter either way.  Now we get to enjoy Jimmy G time. 

[raidr4life]

29 minutes ago, Jerry said:

https://heavy.com/sports/las-vegas-raiders/jack-del-rio-fired-bill-musgrave/amp/
 

Jack Del Rio was apparently upset with how much money he was making? Read another article with Del Rio saying he has good reason but never elaborated. I don’t think Del Rio and Musgrave got along.

As for your statement on the additions that made 2016 a 12-4 season. Sean Smith was better than Hayden, Irvin was better than Aldon Smith, and adding KO at LG and moving G Jackson to RG took our line from really good to elite.  I don’t really understand how you can underplay those additions.

Carr led our offense to scoring more points 12x that season. At the end of the day if you’re going to place blame on him for our losses then you should provide him the same blame (credit) for those wins as well.

I’m ready to move on from Carr discussions. It doesn’t matter either way.  Now we get to enjoy Jimmy G time. 

Now this I agree with, Del Rio got himself fired getting rid of Musgrave. Year 1 and 2 Carr was growing in that offense and I was like it's about to be year 3 and we were already top 10. Then he kept KNJ those two moves were so backwards.

[drfrey13]

7 hours ago, Jerry said:

https://heavy.com/sports/las-vegas-raiders/jack-del-rio-fired-bill-musgrave/amp/
 

Jack Del Rio was apparently upset with how much money he was making? Read another article with Del Rio saying he has good reason but never elaborated. I don’t think Del Rio and Musgrave got along.

As for your statement on the additions that made 2016 a 12-4 season. Sean Smith was better than Hayden, Irvin was better than Aldon Smith, and adding KO at LG and moving G Jackson to RG took our line from really good to elite.  I don’t really understand how you can underplay those additions.

Carr led our offense to scoring more points 12x that season. At the end of the day if you’re going to place blame on him for our losses then you should provide him the same blame (credit) for those wins as well.

I’m ready to move on from Carr discussions. It doesn’t matter either way.  Now we get to enjoy Jimmy G time. 

We can agree to disagree.  It is just our opinions and neither of us had an insider at the facility to know.

I would just like to state that I have never said Carr does not deserve credit for 2016.  I just think he has received to much.  He was a top 6-8 QB.  I would have loved for him to maintain that level but he has not.  As for Jimmy G, I would have rolled with Carr over him because of the injury history.  Even though Jimmy would have made a lot less than Carr, he still might make more per game played.  Jimmy could also lead us to the Super Bowl but I doubt we sniff the playoffs.

[Darbsk]

9 hours ago, raidr4life said:

It's like he handicapped himself, teams didn't even have to practice for Carr running they knew he never leaves the pocket, he would have start making them pay some games look a lot different.

Yep, if he ran once or twice a game, like a designed run for a decent 12 yard gain or something (and he was well capable of doing that) then the defence would have had to respect that and it would have helped him out a lot. 

I didn’t really understand it either, it would have helped so much that as an OC I would have given him a target of at least two runs a game just to keep the defence honest. If we were scared he would get injured then i do understand some,but his big injuries came in the pocket anyway.

[raidr4life]

9 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

Yep, if he ran once or twice a game, like a designed run for a decent 12 yard gain or something (and he was well capable of doing that) then the defence would have had to respect that and it would have helped him out a lot. 

I didn’t really understand it either, it would have helped so much that as an OC I would have given him a target of at least two runs a game just to keep the defence honest. If we were scared he would get injured then i do understand some,but his big injuries came in the pocket anyway.

I always go back and dig up this play because I thought we would see things like this for years to come and literally never again.

 

[Jerry]

9 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

We can agree to disagree.  It is just our opinions and neither of us had an insider at the facility to know.

I would just like to state that I have never said Carr does not deserve credit for 2016.  I just think he has received to much.  He was a top 6-8 QB.  I would have loved for him to maintain that level but he has not.  As for Jimmy G, I would have rolled with Carr over him because of the injury history.  Even though Jimmy would have made a lot less than Carr, he still might make more per game played.  Jimmy could also lead us to the Super Bowl but I doubt we sniff the playoffs.

Other than staying healthy what does Jimmy G need to lead us to the playoffs? What does he need to win the SB?  If he plays all 17 games this season are we in the playoffs?  Do you think he can lead our current roster to the promised land?

[raidr4life]

23 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Other than staying healthy what does Jimmy G need to lead us to the playoffs? What does he need to win the SB?  If he plays all 17 games this season are we in the playoffs?  Do you think he can lead our current roster to the promised land?

All he need to do is worry about leading the offense if he's doing his job moving the offense putting points on the board, not having scoreless 2nd half's, then believe me suddenly the defense won't look nearly as bad. One way to stop comebacks is to score points in the 2nd half of games. Playoffs is a possibility!

Edited June 3, 2023 by raidr4life

[bucksavage1]

12 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

All he need to do is worry about leading the offense if he's doing his job moving the offense putting points on the board, not having scoreless 2nd half's, then believe me suddenly the defense won't look nearly as bad. One way to stop comebacks is to score points in the 2nd half of games. Playoffs is a possibility!

Lots of the tape from last season shows Carr left a fair share of plays that on the field could of been more points. Jimmy G can use his experience in the offense along with Meyers and Adams. We’re gonna tough to stops. Turner and Dorsett give us the speed WR to help open things up

[drfrey13]

59 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Other than staying healthy what does Jimmy G need to lead us to the playoffs? What does he need to win the SB?  If he plays all 17 games this season are we in the playoffs?  Do you think he can lead our current roster to the promised land?

IF IF IF Jimmy G plays and is healthy all 17 games we can make the playoffs.  He will be able to function at a much higher level than Carr in this system.  This does not mean I think Jimmy is a better QB.  They are close but I give the edge to Carr.  We will probably lose round 1 in the playoffs but can make it.  Now if we are opportunistic (2016) and lucky (2021) we could always make a run in the playoffs.  We can greatly increase or chances of making a run in the playoffs by adding some quality DTs and a MLB that can command the defense.  None of it matters if Jimmy is hurt like usual and we are relying on Hoyer.  At that point you are hoping O'Connell is the second coming of Brady.