Official 2020 WR Thread

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

I disagree with this, the biggest question with Mims has been nothing athletically, gameplay or character. It's been the amount of busted Baylor receivers that have been drafted. If he was at a college that allowed him to showcase his elite talent in various ways like a Bama linebacker, or a OSU D-Linemen, then I have no doubt in my mind he would be considered for the top 5. 

As @jrry32 already mentioned, there's a completely different coaching staff that's in place.  Prior to Jalen Hurd last year (and I wouldn't even consider him a Baylor Bear), the last Baylor WR drafted was Corey Coleman in 2016.  The HC of Baylor in 2015 was Art Briles.  The HC of Baylor in 2019 was Matt Rhule.  Art Briles is currently the HC of Mount Vernon HS.  Matt Rhule is the HC of the Carolina Panthers.

[Calvert28]

Just now, jrry32 said:

You're living in a fantasy if you think NFL teams care about that. Do you think NFL FOs don't know Matt Rhule? Mims has plenty of issues that are going to result in him being drafted somewhere between the third and sixth WR in this stacked WR class. It's not because he didn't run enough slants, didn't post eye-popping enough numbers, and did play for Baylor. Justin Jefferson posted the best numbers of any Power-Five WR in the country in 2019 (who is draft eligible). He's unlikely to be the first WR taken (and could get drafted after Mims).

Lmao oh you think so? There still are superstitions in the NFL surrounding college's and the positions that they produce. Back in the day you could bet a Miami TE or DB to be a little over drafted where they should just because the university was known for putting out studs at the time. Same went for PSU and LB's, still the same for Wisconsin and Iowa for OLine, etc. But again stigma's linger in the NFL and Baylor receiver's who have had a hard time adjusting to the NFL while being poor route runners and such is most definitely held against him. Although the lack of route is definitely his biggest concern.

Mims does not have "plenty" of issues. Does he have thing's he CAN improve on? Sure, but again aside from his route running he has no glaring weaknesses. Borderline elite burst off the line, great top end speed, terrific COD skills he show cased at the combine and in drills at the senior bowl. His hands are as strong as anyone in the draft class and reminds people of Michael Thomas and Hopkins with how well he makes contested catches, and lets not even bother describing his catch radius. He has all the features of a marquee elite WR physically. He can improve some more on hand eye coordination, route running, and maybe add a little more weight. 

But other then that, he has this class beat in spades in terms of total package. 

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, Calvert28 said:

Mims does not have "plenty" of issues. Does he have thing's he CAN improve on? Sure, but again aside from his route running he has no glaring weaknesses. Borderline elite burst off the line, great top end speed, terrific COD skills he show cased at the combine and in drills at the senior bowl. His hands are as strong as anyone in the draft class and reminds people of Michael Thomas and Hopkins with how well he makes contested catches, and lets not even bother describing his catch radius. He has all the features of a marquee elite WR physically. He can improve some more on hand eye coordination, route running, and maybe add a little more weight. 

But other then that, he has this class beat in spades in terms of total package. 

I don't always agree with Lance Zierlein, but I respect the work he does. In the case of Denzel Mims, I agree with what he lists as weaknesses:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/denzel-mims?id=32194d49-4d62-4399-5aee-b92ce1fc40e6

Although, I do think he showed flashes physicality later in the year. It's something he needs to better harness.

Quote

Lmao oh you think so? There still are superstitions in the NFL surrounding college's and the positions that they produce. Back in the day you could bet a Miami TE or DB to be a little over drafted where they should just because the university was known for putting out studs at the time. Same went for PSU and LB's, still the same for Wisconsin and Iowa for OLine, etc. But again stigma's linger in the NFL and Baylor receiver's who have had a hard time adjusting to the NFL while being poor route runners and such is most definitely held against him. Although the lack of route is definitely his biggest concern.

You didn't name stigmas. You named instances where you felt the NFL respected the program too much. Yes, that occurs. It is typically because NFL teams highly respect the coaching, development, and scheming of that program. That's the opposite of NFL teams holding some sort of stigma against a program after they've brought in new coaches, new schemes, and are developing players differently. The NFL respected Rhule enough for him to be arguably the top HC candidate this off-season. That isn't consistent with a stigma.

[Calvert28]

13 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

As @jrry32 already mentioned, there's a completely different coaching staff that's in place.  Prior to Jalen Hurd last year (and I wouldn't even consider him a Baylor Bear), the last Baylor WR drafted was Corey Coleman in 2016.  The HC of Baylor in 2015 was Art Briles.  The HC of Baylor in 2019 was Matt Rhule.  Art Briles is currently the HC of Mount Vernon HS.  Matt Rhule is the HC of the Carolina Panthers.

Not really. Rhule himself said he ran his offense similar to Art Briles style because that's just the kind of personnel they had to work with.

He threw in different flavors to mix it up. But a whole lot of what we saw Mims do there was what we saw Coleman do as well. 

Rhule made it abundantly clear he was going to run w/e it took to win. But he wasn't there long enough to really reshape the offense with an entirely new approach. He went with what he thought would be best for the team. Of course that's probably why he had so much success because of his adaptive coaching. 

[BayRaider]

13 hours ago, tyler735 said:

I suppose that could be an interesting question, but I don't think bench reps are any sort of indication of whether or not he will be able to beat press coverage. I know it's a different position, but I remember just a few years ago many people were freaking out about Christian McCaffrey putting up 10 reps on the bench press. If I had to pick 1 combine event that seems to be useless for skill positions it would undoubtedly be bench press

The point, he had an equal concern with press that Jeudy, Ruggs, and Jefferson do. And he gets a free pass among fans. 

[beekay414]

49 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Since I'm sure nobody has peaked at my draft thread (or me since a few weeks ago), here's my WR rankings in tiers.

The only thing I really disagree with is the 2nd round grade on Jefferson but you probably already figured that.

[Calvert28]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I don't always agree with Lance Zierlein, but I respect the work he does. In the case of Denzel Mims, I agree with what he lists as weaknesses:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/denzel-mims?id=32194d49-4d62-4399-5aee-b92ce1fc40e6

Although, I do think he showed flashes physicality later in the year. It's something he needs to better harness.

Some of his takes are far fetched. Mims as many have said, ran almost exclusively vertical routes in college. But still managed to average around 60 catches a season. Now if you as a defender know a guy is going to run pretty much one route all game. It's easy to play off man and just to be ready to turn and run when he burns it up field. Saying he struggles to sell the route or he struggles to separate is like saying the Dodgers failed to switch it up pitching even though the Astros knew what to expect pretty much every time a hand was waved.

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

You didn't name stigmas. You named instances where you felt the NFL respected the program too much. Yes, that occurs. It is typically because NFL teams highly respect the coaching, development, and scheming of that program. That's the opposite of NFL teams holding some sort of stigma against a program after they've brought in new coaches, new schemes, and are developing players differently. The NFL respected Rhule enough for him to be arguably the top HC candidate this off-season. That isn't consistent with a stigma.

Maybe I should have clarified better, but the stereotypes are there and Rhule still used much of the same offense that Briles left behind to win because that gave Baylor the best chance to win. 

[jrry32]

9 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

Some of his takes are far fetched. Mims as many have said, ran almost exclusively vertical routes in college. But still managed to average around 60 catches a season. Now if you as a defender know a guy is going to run pretty much one route all game. It's easy to play off man and just to be ready to turn and run when he burns it up field. Saying he struggles to sell the route or he struggles to separate is like saying the Dodgers failed to switch it up pitching even though the Astros knew what to expect pretty much every time a hand was waved.

Maybe I should have clarified better, but the stereotypes are there and Rhule still used much of the same offense that Briles left behind to win because that gave Baylor the best chance to win. 

What you're saying isn't accurate.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

15 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I posted this in the Raider Forum, gonna post it here:

 

Can I make a concern about Lamb without being flamed? I know he’s a popular one here. All WR’s have concerns including Jeudy, Ruggs III, Jefferson, and yes, even Lamb. This is not a negative Lamb post. Feel this forum and the media has made him out to be a perfect prospect as of late, so I have to put this disclaimer. I just want to feel as if I can discuss anything. Thank you.

(Disclaimer above is mostly for the Raider Forum lol, they love Lamb with a huge passion).

So I was listening to Jim and Pat today and they said Lamb has by far played the least amount of Press coverage playing in the Big 12, compared to Jeudy, Ruggs III, and Jefferson. Jeudy, Ruggs III, and Jefferson are constantly criticized for their ability to defeat press, when Lamb should have at least equal concerns. And while Lamb has a tough, physical play style, you still need strength to play with that play style. For reference, Lamb had 11 Bench Reps which is quite bad actually. Comparisons: AJ Brown 19 Bench Reps last year, DK Metcalf 27, Jalen Reagor 17, Laviska Shenault 17, Denzel Mims 16.

 

So my point here is:

 

1)    Can Lamb play with the physical/tough play style he does in college, and also defeat press coverage? I think he’ll have to add more strength, a lot more actually.

2)    My main point, people criticize the other three: Jeudy, Ruggs III, and Jefferson for their question marks with Press Coverage, but Lamb has the same concerns, in a equal manner, and it should be treated as such. Everyone seems to assume he can beat press because of his “play style” and “demeanor”, he’s gonna need a lot more than that, and it’s an equal concern compared to the other three.

 

Big 12 pass defense is a joke. That is what you are getting at. It has been that way for more than a dozen years. It stands out to me as a sports bettor because pass defense is my #1 complimentary factor to preseason ratings in wagering on college football. As the season progresses nothing dictates outcomes like pass defense, unless the preseason ratings tilt the other way. Preseason ratings are absolute gold in college sports. Incredibly accurate. The goofs fixate on the handful of mistakes instead of the amazing clarity overall.

In 2016 and 2017 not one Big 12 team allowed fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt. That is a comedy act. It means you don't try. It means you don't care. Last season 9 SEC teams allowed fewer than 7.0 and South Carolina was at 7.0. Pass defense per play is a phenomenal category because it links to overall defensive intensity and aggressiveness. Robert Griffin could throw one uncontested tunnel screen after another, and then a deep ball offshoot of that. In other conferences the thought process would have been...we need to wipe that out. In the Big 12 the thought process is we need to emulate that. And so it goes, year after year. Matt Rhule's defensive attitude was such a shell shock to the league that it produced dramatic payoff, all the way down to 6.3 YPA. Gary Patterson had become a bit lazy at TCU in the middle of the decade but once Rhule showed up Patterson's teams also regained some of the defensive ferocity of a decade ago. Last season Baylor and TCU had very good numbers by Big 12 standards at 6.3 and 6.7.

Naturally everyone wants to be a Happy Adjuster and claim that Big 12 offensive caliber prevents top defensive numbers. I laughed at that and appreciated that Rhule essentially laughed at it also. Pass defense is hard work. Not many of the young cupcake offensive coaches want to devote the time and effort requires. That's why it's so impressive to watch Nick Saban standing alongside the defensive backs and emphatically making sure the backpedal technique is correct, etc. I don't think I've ever seen Saban so infuriated as late in that championship game when Texas slipped a couple of bubble screens for big gains. Saban knows those cheap garbage Big 12 type plays should be wiped out at the line of scrimmage.

I would always take Big 12 pass defense into account while evaluating a prospect on either side of the ball. You better be darned sure that guy is extra special. The program's history does not matter. The situational variance of what these quarterbacks and wide receivers and defensive backs are facing compared to what is going on elsewhere in the country absolutely does matter. 

[Awsi Dooger]

Higgins is a difficult evaluation. I can understand the variance of opinion. There's such a fine line with those lanky guys who aren't particularly fast and don't create dependable separation. Some of them are field fast and have special amounts of instincts, timing and tenacity that overcome the deficits elsewhere. Other guys are regulated by what they lack.

I've gone back and forth on Higgins. The disappointing aspect is that he looked like a competitive type until the Ohio State game, where far too often it looked like he quit given the coverage he was facing. Then he preferred to rest instead of doing the combine. In all the decades I've followed the draft I'm not sure I remember a more senseless self-inflicted comment during the testing stage. Other guys are known jerks. Higgins didn't seem to understand what was at stake.

However now I think his slotting has likely slipped top far. If you look at those preseason mock drafts he was within the top half of the first round. I always like to look back at those things. Simmons and Higgins were basically side by side. Now somehow one guy is top 5 or thereabouts and the other guy dropping into round 2.

[tyler735]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Between this and @badgers0821's take, I think you missed a huge scandal...this is the same line of thinking that would have had you guys pass over Saquon Barkley fwiw.

Fair enough for some reason I thought Coleman played some post Briles era I was mistaken.

[beekay414]

53 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

What you're saying isn't accurate.

 

Thank you for this graphic. Makes my man boner for Jefferson that much more...engorged. 

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

What you're saying isn't accurate.

 

Get em 

[Scoundrel]

Also what a nice variance in routes for Ruggs. 

[Chrissooner49er]

Hmmmm......according to that breakdown, Lamb and Jefferson are the only WRs with no 0s on any of the route tendency percentages. Very nice.

Also, Aiyuk's got 30% in screens?  That's got to impact perceptions of him.