Official 2020 QB Thread

[BleedTheClock]

14 hours ago, BayRaider said:

His issue is not understanding defensive concepts and getting picked off by a zone. Easily correctable.

Is it though? (Insert Thor meme)

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Is it though? (Insert Thor meme)

[Teen Girl Squad]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Man Fromm made a terrible decision to declare early.   Ironically, Georgia getting Jamie Newman, probably got a blessing in disguise.   But that was a historically bad workout for a guy whose film clearly had major Q's, and whose tool/skill analysis said he was a marginal starter candidate.  Forget being the 4th-5th QB off the board now IMO.   He could easily be a Day 3 / UDFA guy now.

Honestly, his draft stock probably had no where to go but down. I don't know what next years class looks like outside of Lawrence/Fields, but this class isn't super great after the top few and if Fromm can't crack day two this year, I don't see what he could have done next year.

[BucShot]

Did anyone catch Jordan Loves throw velocity? Eason was 62mph and Herbert was 60mph. Just curious how Loves arm compares to those 2.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Honestly, his draft stock probably had no where to go but down. I don't know what next years class looks like outside of Lawrence/Fields, but this class isn't super great after the top few and if Fromm can't crack day two this year, I don't see what he could have done next year.

Once Herbert declared his best shot was 4th - 5th in this draft class - but also paired with an unprecedented amount of stopgap Starter QB available in FA.    No matter the 2nd tier in next year’s  draft the overall QB buyer market looks a lot more friendly for non-elite guys.  
 

Playing another year with Georgia and throwing it to Pickens & co. certainly wouldn’t have hurt him.   And the coaching staff and team pushed hard to retain him.   Not like he was going to face competition if he stayed.  

I say the above as a guy who thinks declaring early is the smart move.   It just seemed this was one of  the few situations where he could have improved his stock, especially given how intangibles play up better with pocket QB’s than any other position. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Broncofan

[Awsi Dooger]

On 2/26/2020 at 1:57 PM, HoboRocket said:

This is extremely eye-opening. Jalen Hurts is a lot more accurate than many of us believed. Good against pressure and on critical downs, as well. Herbert's accuracy issues have been overblown. Eason is going to be a huge project. Love has big-time turnover issues, but we all knew that. Not very good against pressure, either. Jake Fromm... Yikes. Tua threw very few interceptable passes, but the rate at which he threw passes behind the line of scrimmage is also significantly higher than anyone else (64 of 232 passing attempts). He was super clutch, though. Burrow is fantastic across the board.

Love is a project but at least he has touch, unlike Eason. Love also has a season with 8.6 YPA and #2 scoring offense in the nation. I wouldn't want to take on a project like Eason who is a tunnel vision line drive winger without accuracy. He has a college YPA of 7.1 and never in the top 40 in scoring offense. 

Oklahoma schemes guys wide open. That's why the wide windows vs. Jordan Love tight windows stuff undoubtedly has some validity. 

This stuff would be more interesting if we had a chart from Jordan Love in 2018 and also Hurts from Alabama. Hurts was more than 3 yards lower YPA at Alabama than at Oklahoma. Actually closer to 4 yards lower.

I don't know why this stuff is so lazy to include the most recent season only. Fromm was certainly superior in prior seasons.

Actually I'm not certain it's 2019 season only. I don't see it specified anywhere in his tweets. 

[HoboRocket]

41 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said:

Love is a project but at least he has touch, unlike Eason. Love also has a season with 8.6 YPA and #2 scoring offense in the nation. I wouldn't want to take on a project like Eason who is a tunnel vision line drive winger without accuracy. He has a college YPA of 7.1 and never in the top 40 in scoring offense. 

Oklahoma schemes guys wide open. That's why the wide windows vs. Jordan Love tight windows stuff undoubtedly has some validity. 

This stuff would be more interesting if we had a chart from Jordan Love in 2018 and also Hurts from Alabama. Hurts was more than 3 yards lower YPA at Alabama than at Oklahoma. Actually closer to 4 yards lower.

I don't know why this stuff is so lazy to include the most recent season only. Fromm was certainly superior in prior seasons.

Actually I'm not certain it's 2019 season only. I don't see it specified anywhere in his tweets. 

It can be surmised by the totals, though. However, as has been specified by this dude before, it's based off of what he deems an accurate pass or not. So some completed passes actually go AGAINST the QB. Likewise, incomplete passes may be counted in favor of the quarterback if the receiver failed to make a play on the ball or dropped it. This generally hurts inaccurate QBs playing in wide-open schemes, because if they throw a bad pass and the target bails them out, it'll be counted as a negative. So Hurts' numbers are more or less legit. The way these passes are charted creates scheme parity - at least partially. I'll get into that next.

Now, with Love, it wouldn't really help him despite his tendency to throw a great football because he's playing while throwing into really tight windows. Now, you may be thinking "Oh, that's okay. The tight-window throws will be listed as accurate even if they weren't completed. Great." However, this isn't the case, because DBs were constantly in position to make plays on his passes. It doesn't matter if your passes are thrown into tight windows that most QBs couldn't DREAM of fitting the ball into if the DB can still intercept or knockdown the pass. That's why this is only partial parity. Even with the assumed penalty to spread and air raid QBs, there's not really a way for the NUMBERS to gauge the accuracy of a QB playing in a situation where they're throwing into tight windows IF the DBs can make a play on the ball. And even if Love is throwing a tight spiral and fitting it into a tight window, it probably doesn't help his numbers that he can't read the field like AT ALL so his passes probably aren't being thrown to the most efficient location.

[jrry32]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Man Fromm made a terrible decision to declare early.   Ironically, Georgia getting Jamie Newman, probably got a blessing in disguise.   But that was a historically bad workout for a guy whose film clearly had major Q's, and whose tool/skill analysis said he was a marginal starter candidate.  Forget being the 4th-5th QB off the board now IMO.   He could easily be a Day 3 / UDFA guy now.

Fromm already had his degree, IIRC. His stock wasn't going to go up next year. He is what he is. He's a backup. He was always a guy who was going to fall in that 3rd to 5th round range. Think A.J. McCarron, Matt Barkley, etc. He was an overhyped college QB. But he's smart, he doesn't make a lot of mistakes, he has enough arm talent, and he knows where to go with the ball.

I have always tried to talk people down on this kid, like I did with Matt Barkley back in the day. However, if people now think he's a late Day 3/UDFA guy because of an underwhelming Combine, they're overcorrecting. He should still go in that range I laid out. He's the same guy he has always been. He's a quality backup. I think somewhere in the range of Cody Kessler to Shaun Hill. If you find the right system and he develops decently, maybe you get a player on par with Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or Teddy Bridgewater. But the kid has never been a top 10 talent. That doesn't mean he has no shot at succeeding. You just can never truly know with QBs.

[Ragnarok]

4 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Fromm already had his degree, IIRC. His stock wasn't going to go up next year. He is what he is. He's a backup. He was always a guy who was going to fall in that 3rd to 5th round range. Think A.J. McCarron, Matt Barkley, etc. He was an overhyped college QB. But he's smart, he doesn't make a lot of mistakes, he has enough arm talent, and he knows where to go with the ball.

I have always tried to talk people down on this kid, like I did with Matt Barkley back in the day. However, if people now think he's a late Day 3/UDFA guy because of an underwhelming Combine, they're overcorrecting. He should still go in that range I laid out. He's the same guy he has always been. He's a quality backup. I think somewhere in the range of Cody Kessler to Shaun Hill. If you find the right system and he develops decently, maybe you get a player on par with Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or Teddy Bridgewater. But the kid has never been a top 10 talent. That doesn't mean he has no shot at succeeding. You just can never truly know with QBs.

Top tier backup a la Matt Cassel.

[warsawian]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Fromm already had his degree, IIRC. His stock wasn't going to go up next year. He is what he is. He's a backup. He was always a guy who was going to fall in that 3rd to 5th round range. Think A.J. McCarron, Matt Barkley, etc. He was an overhyped college QB. But he's smart, he doesn't make a lot of mistakes, he has enough arm talent, and he knows where to go with the ball.

I have always tried to talk people down on this kid, like I did with Matt Barkley back in the day. However, if people now think he's a late Day 3/UDFA guy because of an underwhelming Combine, they're overcorrecting. He should still go in that range I laid out. He's the same guy he has always been. He's a quality backup. I think somewhere in the range of Cody Kessler to Shaun Hill. If you find the right system and he develops decently, maybe you get a player on par with Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or Teddy Bridgewater. But the kid has never been a top 10 talent. That doesn't mean he has no shot at succeeding. You just can never truly know with QBs.

Yup, I was saying this just a few weeks ago.  I think everyone got hung-up on the profile and not the actual player.  He's a 5th-6th round guy for me, same as always.  

[BayRaider]

Justin Herbert is a Media Narrative. Just like Haskins was last year with all the Media-Heads having him go 6 to the Giants, until the final few days. I assume almost all teams had Haskins as a 2nd Round Grade. The media was comparing Murray and Haskins as 1a and 1b, and if you watched both their tape, that was laughable. Haskins was a Mid-Late 2nd Round type of talent. Dan Snyder fell in love with the hometown thing and he’s an idiot. 
 

Herbert is not going 6 to LAC like 80% of these mocks indicate (I mean I hope he does, that’d set the Chargers back years). Herberts range starts at 13 to the Colts and ends at 24 to the Saints 

I see his landing spots being:

18. Dolphins (if they don’t get Tua, but they will probably get Tua)

23. Patriots

24. Saints (this is where I currently mocked him, but I might have him go 19-20 with a trade in a future mock)

 

I am also ridiculously confident Love is drafted before Herbert. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by BayRaider

[SteelKing728]

Is Jacob Eason just another Jake Locker?

[BucShot]

48 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

Is Jacob Eason just another Jake Locker?

Don't get the comp. Eason to me is going to be a quality starter in this league. Give him some protection and some playmakers outside and he's gonna make some big time plays for you. Has a way higher floor than guys like Herbert/Love/Hurts. Reminds quite a bit of Carson Palmer. The arm is that rare.

[Fullback]

My initial (lazy) Herbert comp was Josh Allen. I haven't figured Herbert out yet. One rep he gets it and then he doesn't. Something seems wrong when he aims even the easiest passes, but I can't tell what it is yet. Then watching another rep he gets it and is fluid. Maybe he needs to get in a groove. Ultimately, after watching 2 tapes of Herbert I think he can immediately be a more effective passer than Josh Allen was as a rookie. Put Herbert into the right offensive scheme and he can shine. Force him to start early in an old school offense will make him look worse than he is. I was lower on him initially, but ultimately he is a legit 1st round QB. Which nowadays basically means that he is a top 10 lock.

As for Love, I get the "poor man's Mahomes" comp. They have some similarities. But even as a prospect with question marks that Mahomes has been, I got a much better vibe about Mahomes as a prospect in terms of decisions and safe ball placement. Mahomes had to fight against his own defense (worst in the nation) more so than against the defenses he was facing. Yet having to air it out and take high risks on each possession, Mahomes didn't throw as many dangerous balls as pundits claimed. Love couldn't even protect the football in much better circumstances than Mahomes. It's partly a mental thing, but probably one of the single most important traits of the QB position.

Love gets a 2nd round grade from me. No doubt some team will get their hands on him in the 1st. Wouldn't shock me at all if it's in the the low teens. But I'd definitely take Herbert over Love after digging deeper into Herbert. Their ceilings are about the same. Herbert needs refinement as well. But he is at a more advanced stage when comparing mental aspects. Love might never hit that stage.

[Fullback]

14 minutes ago, BucShot said:

Don't get the comp. Eason to me is going to be a quality starter in this league. Give him some protection and some playmakers outside and he's gonna make some big time plays for you. Has a way higher floor than guys like Herbert/Love/Hurts. Reminds quite a bit of Carson Palmer. The arm is that rare.

I have Eason well behind Herbert. Not sure if I like Eason over Love. 1st round wouldn't shock me at all. I think he ends up in Tampa with Bruce Arians. Coach Arians will jump on the table for Eason.