SmittyBacall Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, BayRaider said: Can he maintain? Probably not I would say definitely not. He's not going to play like an MVP candidate year in and year out. That's just not realistic. Things are going well right now for the Titans, and he's producing as well as anybody. But I want to see him on the Titans when things aren't going well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownie man Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said: Leads the league in passer rating with a 20.2 agg% 2nd place leader in passer rating has an agg% of 12.1. 😂😂😂 at anyone saying Tannehill's play isnt elite. It's as elite as it gets. Walk away from me. You gotta get him on a 2 or 3 year deal. id rather not franchise him. Get him on a 2 year and a handshake if everything goes well at 1.5 then you’ll go long term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, brownie man said: You gotta get him on a 2 or 3 year deal. id rather not franchise him. Get him on a 2 year and a handshake if everything goes well at 1.5 then you’ll go long term Exactly. His play, while great, likely isn't sustainable. His TD% is higher than any one season Drew Brees ever had. It's in line with a 45-50 TD season, depending on the number of passes you extrapolate to. His YPA is higher than 2018 Mahomes. He's leading the league in most of the efficiency stats, many of which are at or just under some historic seasons like 2007 Brady or 2018 Mahomes. If he can regress to normal levels like 5-6 TD%, 7.5-8.5 YPA, 7-8 ANY/A, etc, he'll be worthy of a longer deal. If he regresses to slightly worse than that (Matt Ryan level), you have to think long and hard. And if he's much worse, then he's Andy Dalton (or Ryan Tannehill) level, and you have to move on. Because make no mistake - he's going to regress from this level, or else he's going to the hall of fame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Hope- Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 39 minutes ago, theJ said: Exactly. His play, while great, likely isn't sustainable. His TD% is higher than any one season Drew Brees ever had. It's in line with a 45-50 TD season, depending on the number of passes you extrapolate to. His YPA is higher than 2018 Mahomes. He's leading the league in most of the efficiency stats, many of which are at or just under some historic seasons like 2007 Brady or 2018 Mahomes. If he can regress to normal levels like 5-6 TD%, 7.5-8.5 YPA, 7-8 ANY/A, etc, he'll be worthy of a longer deal. If he regresses to slightly worse than that (Matt Ryan level), you have to think long and hard. And if he's much worse, then he's Andy Dalton (or Ryan Tannehill) level, and you have to move on. Because make no mistake - he's going to regress from this level, or else he's going to the hall of fame. my dude, if he regresses to matt ryan level i’m taking that deal every damn day. it pains me to think what this team could’ve done the past few years with a matt ryan caliber QB rather than mariota. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, -Hope- said: my dude, if he regresses to matt ryan level i’m taking that deal every damn day. it pains me to think what this team could’ve done the past few years with a matt ryan caliber QB rather than mariota. It's a big improvement, but one has to question whether it's good enough to win a SB. And i'm not talking 2016 Matt Ryan, i'm talking the rest of his career Matt Ryan. Plus you'll have to take into account that Tannehill is already 32, and if you sign him to a 2 year deal now, 34 when you're talking about a larger extension (after Matt Ryan numbers). I don't know if it will be a no brainer or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y*so*blu Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 (edited) Back in Miami, Tannehill was just another good-but-not-great QB that no one got really excited about. He looks like a totally different person in Tennessee. He's playing out of his mind, and his enthusiasm is palpable and contagious. Seeing him run back down the field and flatten the 290-pound defensive tackle who just intercepted him (with his throwing shoulder, no less) was amazing. If he can be anywhere near this good on a regular basis, then he absolutely should be the guy. Edited December 9, 2019 by y*so*blu 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanLegend Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Tannehill won't continue THIS level of success. The only other QB in NFL history who has had a 3 game stretch similar to him is Aaron Rodgers. The only 2 QBs in NFL history who have had a similar 4 game stretch are Wilson and some dude I've never heard of from the 70s and forget the name of. So no, it's not a question of "can he maintain this level of play long term" because no, he can't. Patrick Mahomes, prime Peyton Manning, prime Brady, etc can't maintain production at the level Tannehill is playing at right now. The guy is completing over 73% of his passes while sitting at 9.8 ypa. That is absolutely absurd and numbers you'd struggle to put up even in Madden. If Tannehill were to continue this level of play even for just a few year stretch it'd go down as the greatest few year stretch by a QB in NFL history, by a GIGANTIC margin. It's not happening. The question is when he does come down off this high, what is his level of playing going to be? When Rodgers and Manning and Brady and Mahomes come down off games or a couple game stretch like this, they "regress" to still putting up high end/elite numbers. Does Tannehill's numbers drop to elite? very good? good? just above average? average? below average? bad? Someone mentioned Matt Ryan(and not MVP Ryan, but regular Ryan) in this thread, and I reiterate @-Hope-'s sentiments. If we can get a QB who is consistently completing 65% of his passes at 7.5 ypa and a 26-12 TD/INT ratio/4.7 td% and 2.2int%, then you take that every day of the week. That can absolutely win superbowls, especially paired with a good o-line, good run game and solid defense which is what the Titans have forever and always prided themselves on building(regardless of their success or lack thereof at times doing so). People seem to forget Joe Flacco and Eli Manning and early career/game manager-ish Big Ben and Tom Brady and dead arm Peyton and Nick Foles and so on and so forth have won championships in recent years. You don't need to have an elite QB to win a superbowl. You don't even need anything better than an average one if your other facets are dominant. But putting a pretty good QB like that on a team with a good o-line, run game and defense? You're gonna be a contender every year. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 His OL always held him back from consistently good production. I'm not surprised at the level of success he's having, and I'll be rooting for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vladimir L Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Get a line and wr around him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragevsuall17 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 hours ago, theJ said: His TD% is higher than any one season Drew Brees ever had. It's in line with a 45-50 TD season, depending on the number of passes you extrapolate to. His YPA is higher than 2018 Mahomes. He's leading the league in most of the efficiency stats, many of which are at or just under some historic seasons like 2007 Brady or 2018 Mahomes. I agree that he can't sustain this level of efficiency. But extrapolating him to 50 TDs is assuming we're suddenly a pass happy team. We're not, we wouldn't have been, we won't be. He's started exactly 8 games... Double his numbers up over 16 games and you get 4200 yards, 34 TDs, 9 Ints. That's 264 yards, 2 TDs and half a pick per game, essentially. He's averaging 27 attempts per game, and won't get to 40 in this offense. While I don't expect him to keep those efficiency ratios up, it's not unreal to expect similar bulk stats... as long as he stays healthy. In Miami on back to back seasons right before his injuries, he averaged 4100 yards, 26 TDs and 12 Ints. If he can regress to somewhere in the middle from then and now, I'm ecstatic as a Titans fan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nex_Gen Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 He can be the guy that sends you into mediocre purgatory... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 19 hours ago, Nex_Gen said: He can be the guy that sends you into mediocre purgatory... This is also true, but I think we're at a point to know that Tannehill isn't exactly this "Man on Fire" QB. He's had a great run (a really great run at that) but a 16 game schedule? A few 16 game schedules? It would probably be a diminishing return. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanLegend Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, .Buzz said: I don't think they need an analytics department to tell them that Tannehill isn't going to complete 73% of his passes at a 9.8 yards per attempt rate from here on out, considering no QB in NFL history has ever done that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 RT17 is the truth. I'm a Titans fan for the time being. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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