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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
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1 hour ago, WizeGuy said:

It's going to be interesting to see how the strains differ from area to area since there hasn't been much international travel, so while Italy may have a weaker strain NY may still have a more deadly strain, etc... Hopefully the virus continues to weaken if what the doctor says is true. Obviously the Italian doctor seems to be reputable, but there still isn't a peer reviewed study available, so as of right now it's hard to say how strong his statement is. 

What's crazy about the Spanish Flu from what I've read is the first wave was pretty mild, then a catastrophic second wave, a smaller third wave that didn't hit certain cities nearly as hard, and then it just vanished. It seems as if the virus mutated and eradicated itself and/or some sort of herd immunity was reached. This all happened with no vaccine. Now, influenza mutates at a much higher rate than Coronaviruses, but COVID-19 has been spreading like crazy, so there's no doubt it's had plenty of opportunity to mutate. Could it turn into another cold sooner than expected?

What's interesting is certain areas reached a point where they weren't hit nearly as hard as others at different times. Did certain areas reach herd immunity quicker due to less precaution? Some countries weren't hit nearly as hard during the second wave. Or was the virus mutating and either a) becoming less severe or b) becoming more deadly, but killing off the host too quickly. This may have happened at different times in different areas. 

We *may* see something similar with COVID. Certain areas that were hit hard may have strong herd immunity even if they haven't hit that 60-80% threshold some experts believe to be needed to severely slow the spread, or the virus may mutate to a much milder strain. It's important to note that it's estimated a total of 1/3 of the world was infected with the Spanish flu during its outbreak, which doesn't seem to be nearly enough to reach herd immunity given how fast it was spreading during the second wave. It seems likely that it started mutating or herd immunity was reached at a much lower level. It's important to note that this figure of 1/3 isn't a concrete number, but it's still a reference point. 

This is the first major pandemic in modern time that's had a huge impact on damn near every country in the world. We have better research, resources, and technology to learn a ton not only about Coronaviruses but also virus outbreaks in general. During the Spanish Flu doctors and scientists didn't even know what a flu was. They didn't know about R0 value, and I don't believe herd immunity was coined until the 1930s. There's so much we 're going to learn from the pandemic because it's happening in real time and we don't have to 'study history', which is always mucky.   

What I've heard is that the deadly strain from Italy is the strain that hit NYC/S.  What's interesting is that Covid-19 is adapting.  It could be any number of things.  Seasonality is one.  It could be this is adapting because it is killing off it's hosts too quickly, or it could be because it disproportionately affects the older/vulnerable population who have already been ravaged by it.  

The second wave of the Spanish flu shouldn't be counted in this.  That was primarily the cause of troop movements during WWI and multiple strains of the disease being brought back from the war front, something we won't see at this point unless another world war breaks out.  And even if it does, society has evolved over 100 years so that we can more effectively social distance, especially with the knowledge that there could be an issue.  It's still a good barometer, but I think the Hong Kong flu in the 60's might be a better comparison/case study.  

 

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
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2 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

What I've heard is that the deadly strain from Italy is the strain that hit NYC/S.  What's interesting is that Covid-19 is adapting.  It could be any number of things.  Seasonality is one.  It could be this is adapting because it is killing off it's hosts too quickly, or it could be because it disproportionately affects the older/vulnerable population who have already been ravaged by it.  

The second wave of the Spanish flu shouldn't be counted in this.  That was primarily the cause of troop movements during WWI and multiple strains of the disease being brought back from the war front, something we won't see at this point unless another world war breaks out.  And even if it does, society has evolved over 100 years so that we can more effectively social distance, especially with the knowledge that there could be an issue.  It's still a good barometer, but I think the Hong Kong flu in the 60's might be a better comparison/case study.  

 

I'm not sure if adapting is the right word. Aren't mutations completely random? 

I agree with you second paragraph. Just making a point how intriguing it is that the Spanish Flu died off so quickly with no vaccination. It's a different type of virus, so it may be naive to think COVID will behave likewise, but it interests me. We may finally get an idea of how these pandemic causing viruses evolve and eventually subside. Of course we may have a vaccine before this virus is no longer a huge threat, but it's really intriguing to me. 

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ramssuperbowl99

ramssuperbowl99

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30 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

I'm not sure if adapting is the right word. Aren't mutations completely random? 

I agree with you second paragraph. Just making a point how intriguing it is that the Spanish Flu died off so quickly with no vaccination. It's a different type of virus, so it may be naive to think COVID will behave likewise, but it interests me. We may finally get an idea of how these pandemic causing viruses evolve and eventually subside. Of course we may have a vaccine before this virus is no longer a huge threat, but it's really intriguing to me. 

There are mechanisms for mutation that are completely random, but that's not the case for all of them. Different sections of DNA/RNA can vary in stability, so you can end up with higher rates of mutations in different localized areas of a genome.

As to what special considerations you might need for viral evolution, that's going to be a highly specialized field.

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theJ

theJ

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36 minutes ago, Tyty said:

Stay at home order just got lifted in Michigan so I’m finally heading back to work soon after almost 4 months off

I thought they made it June 12th?  Did they retract it?

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