Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[bucsfan333]

Just now, naptownskinsfan said:

I also want to highlight bringing extra face coverings.  Most face coverings should be changed every couple of hours, especially at work, as the more moisture that accumulates, the less effective the mask becomes.  Each of our team members have two masks per shift for the first part of their shift, and the latter portion of it.  

That makes a lot of sense. The places I've worked that required them, required changing them out every hour or so too. As well as washing and resanitizing your hands.

[naptownskinsfan]

Just now, bucsfan333 said:

That makes a lot of sense. The places I've worked that required them, required changing them out every hour or so too. As well as washing and resanitizing your hands.

Yep, every time you touch your mask you should wash and sanitize your hands.  Or face for that matter.  Every time someone handles cash, they have to change their gloves and wash and sanitize hands as well.  30 minute mandatory glove change and handwashing.  

[bucsfan333]

5 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Yep, every time you touch your mask you should wash and sanitize your hands.  Or face for that matter.  Every time someone handles cash, they have to change their gloves and wash and sanitize hands as well.  30 minute mandatory glove change and handwashing.  

It's actually insane that we all haven't already been wearing gloves in public. We're a disgusting species. And we're prone to basically any and all disease.

[naptownskinsfan]

Just now, bucsfan333 said:

It's actually insane that we all haven't already been wearing gloves in public. We're a disgusting species. And we're prone to basically any and all disease.

I'm going to disagree with you a bit on gloves in public.  Immediately after you touch something, you SHOULD be changing them.  Gloves are pretty impractical on a large scale like grocery shopping.  They would only be to protect you, not others, unless of course you change them after touching one thing. 

I would even argue my company bowed to customer pressure on employees not wearing gloves, and that is why they changed the operating procedures to include them.  Now do some employees need to do so?  Yes, especially if you are handling food in any capacity, from raw to ready to eat or stocking grocery shelves.  But the guy stocking the shelves at Best Buy?  As long as he's washing his hands after touching his mask or washing and sanitizing every 30 minutes, I don't see a problem without gloves.  

I've also found it quite fascinating that so many people are against single-use plastics and now many of those same people are wearing gloves and just throwing them away on the ground outside.  Outside of work and handling meat at home, I can't say that I wore plastic gloves at all.  

[mission27]

As important as this other stuff is (and it is) it would be incredibly short sighted and destructive if we let COVID take a "back seat" the last 3 months has been one of the most damaging periods in human history and we need to be vigilant to prevent a repeat of the lockdowns.  

[vikesfan89]

30 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

The crowds that are gathering have usually worn masks for anonymity. Now it doubles as protection as well.

I've seen pics of hand sanitizer duct taped to telephone poles. And dozens of "reminder" type posts all over twitter about washing hands and bringing extra face covering.

But the current issue is much different from the overall pandemic. And many would argue more important.

So Covid-19 is taking a backseat.

I've seen a lot of people without masks in the pictures and videos and I think the Minneapolis mayor was handing out masks.  Obviously different circumstances but there is quite a different reaction compared to the earlier protests 

[bucsfan333]

13 minutes ago, mission27 said:

As important as this other stuff is (and it is) it would be incredibly short sighted and destructive if we let COVID take a "back seat" the last 3 months has been one of the most damaging periods in human history and we need to be vigilant to prevent a repeat of the lockdowns.  

The other has been going on for hundreds of years?

[Xenos]

Interesting parallel between the US and Japan. Perhaps, we can learn something from them?

https://news.yahoo.com/lessons-from-japan-on-containing-coronavirus-could-help-us-reopen-safely-160105489.html

Quote

In Japan, authorities are advocating a “new lifestyle,” with more than 100 industries having already drawn up guidelines for how they intend to reopen while minimizing the risks of spreading the virus. As the Washington Post recently reported, “The rules vary from the eminently sensible — ensuring adequate ventilation, providing hand sanitizer ... spacing customers apart — to the slightly unusual”:

Customers in restaurants, for example, are encouraged to sit side-by-side rather than face-to-face, to refrain from talking as much as possible, and to consider listening to the background music a little more.  

“The Japanese way of dealing with the epidemic has been quite superior,” Abe said on Monday. “Now we are going to venture into a new arena. Therefore, we need to create a new lifestyle from now on. We need to change our way of thinking.”

 

Quote

In contrast, U.S. messaging around reopening is inconsistent, verging on incoherent, with the president defending his decision to lock down one minute and calling on various states to be “liberated” the next. It’s zero-to-60, all or nothing. Meanwhile, as Julia Marcus, a professor of population medicine at Harvard, writes in the Atlantic, “The CDC is not providing enough pragmatic advice”:

Americans have been told to wear masks, stay at least six feet apart, and wash their hands. But that’s not enough. People need to hear that, if they are desperate to see friends, they should do so outdoors as much as possible; that adding one other household to their quarantine group is much safer than adding five; that if a single person needs physical intimacy, having one partner — even if neither considers it a romantic relationship — is safer than a series of hookups; that they can stop disinfecting all their groceries while still avoiding higher-risk situations, such as spending time inside with large groups of people.

 

Quote

As for the rules, there are two clear takeaways from Japan. One is to avoid what experts there call the “Three Cs” — closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings in which people are talking face-to-face — rather than staying away from other people entirely.

“Social distancing may work, but it doesn’t really help to continue normal social life,” Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of public policy at Hokkaido University who has written about Japan’s response, told Bloomberg News. “The ‘Three Cs’ are a much more pragmatic approach and very effective, while having a similar effect.”

Japan’s Three Cs messaging evolved out of its novel approach to containing the coronavirus. While much of the rest of the world has relied on testing, tracing and isolation, Japan focused instead on identifying so-called “clusters” — groups of infections from a single location — and determining their common characteristics. 

 

Quote

The other big lesson from Japan is that masks work. Face coverings have been universal there for months, in large part because “Japanese people [already] feel comfortable wearing masks on a daily basis,” as Shigeru Omi, vice chairman of the Japanese government’s expert coronavirus panel, recently explained. “Many people are allergic to pollen, so they do this during the cedar pollen season from the beginning of the year until spring, as well as to protect against influenza.” As evidence of the efficacy of masks, Japan did not trace any clusters to its notoriously crowded commuter trains, where riders are usually alone and not talking, their mouths and noses fully covered.

 

[WizeGuy]

Well, we're going to see how much of an impact seasonality has on this virus in the coming weeks with the COVID+ person that went to the Lake of the Ozark party over memorial day weekend + all the protesting and rioting throughout this weekend. I'm really hoping we don't ruin all the progress we've made, especially locally.

We're in phase 2 right now in Rochester, and I think we have a good shot of making it to phase three, or thought we did, anyways. Now the city was hit with riots and protests. I'll say the peaceful protest seemed to have a lot of people wearing masks. Not sure how the rioting went. Still, people are screaming at the top of their lungs and are densely packed. Even with 70% of the people wearing masks and seasonality- there's potential for an outbreak.

I completely understand what the protests are for, and agree with them 110%. I'm obviously against the looting, though it seems to be a symptom of deeply rooted issues in this country. It just goes to show you how much racial tension is in this country...in this world. A pandemic isn't going to stop injustices from happening, and it's not going to stop people from feeling the need to be heard. The virus has no political motive, though; it's going to latch on to any body it's capable of. 

Edited June 1, 2020 by WizeGuy

[theJ]

10 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Well, we're going to see how much of an impact seasonality has on this virus in the coming weeks with the COVID+ person that went to the Lake of the Ozark party over memorial day weekend + all the protesting and rioting throughout this weekend. I'm really hoping we don't ruin all the progress we've made, especially locally.

We're in phase 2 right now in Rochester, and I think we have a good shot of making it to phase three, or thought we did, anyways. Now the city was hit with riots and protests. I'll say the peaceful protest seemed to have a lot of people wearing masks. Not sure how the rioting went. Still, people are screaming at the top of their lungs and are densely packed. Even with 70% of the people wearing masks and seasonality- there's potential for an outbreak.

 

I have a feeling we aren't going to see a big surge.  No basis in facts, but it has seemed like the last month has been much more lax in terms of quarantining and such.  You can go back through the last 100 pages or so and find many examples of people pointing out bad social distancing and saying "it'll be interesting to see if there's a big surge in two weeks".  And there hasn't been one.

I suspect that what we're going to see is a low case load that fluctuates mildly throughout the summer, then maybe surges back in the fall/winter.  But at a lower peak than the first time around, since we're expecting it this time.

That's my wild, non-expert, opinion.

[mission27]

5/31/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"We could leave the Christmas lights up 'til January
This is our place, we make the rules"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL hopes everyone is safe.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still!)

Netherlands: 0.4

Belgium: 0.6

UK: 0.7

Italy: 0.8

France: 1.0

Spain: 1.0

Czech Republic: 1.7

USA: 1.9

Japan: 1.9

Israel: 2.2

Portugal: 2.3

Australia: 2.3

Sweden: 2.4

Ireland: 2.5

Switzerland: 2.5

Canada: 2.6

Singapore: 2.8

Turkey: 3.0

Global: 3.1

Germany: 3.8

Austria: 4.1

China: 4.9

Hong Kong: 8.5 (they reported their first local transmission in 2 weeks, which is just one case, but if we see a handful of cases you have to start worrying about another wave)

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Russia: 3.9

Denmark: 4.9

South Korea: 5.6

Philippines: 5.8

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 9.7

Iran: 10.0

Brazil: 11.3

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 22.6

USA State Level MoLs

Minnesota getting close to breaking into Tier 2, which would be nice.

MoL Deaths

Slight uptick, back to where we were on Friday.  The good news is we've held relatively steady through the weekend, even going up against a tougher comparison to Memorial Day weekend.  If we can get through the next day or two without a big spike thats good news.

Canada

Great job @JBURGE

Numbers keep getting better

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 hour ago, theJ said:

 suspect that what we're going to see is a low case load that fluctuates mildly throughout the summer, then maybe surges back in the fall/winter.  But at a lower peak than the first time around, since we're expecting it this time.

That's my wild, non-expert, opinion.

And bc it seems the human body develops immunity over it once exposed. We don't know if heat is really hurting this thing. There's an Italian doctor who said it "clinically doesn't exist in Italy any longer" bc of how weakened it's becoming

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-longer-clinically-exists-in-italy-top-doctor-says-11998608

I know it's stuff we've heard it for months now but, really, the next month will be very telling. We are also a week out from the Memorial Day parties so we should have a good indication of how damaging it was now or in a couple more days.

[theJ]

7 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

And bc it seems the human body develops immunity over it once exposed. We don't know if heat is really hurting this thing. There's an Italian doctor who said it "clinically doesn't exist in Italy any longer" bc of how weakened it's becoming

Yeah they're only getting a few hundred cases/day at this point.

I kind of suspect that we'll never get to a point of a vaccine being relevant.  One may still be developed and administered on a large scale, but it'll be more preventative, and not during a huge second wave.  

[WizeGuy]

17 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

And bc it seems the human body develops immunity over it once exposed. We don't know if heat is really hurting this thing. There's an Italian doctor who said it "clinically doesn't exist in Italy any longer" bc of how weakened it's becoming

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-longer-clinically-exists-in-italy-top-doctor-says-11998608

I know it's stuff we've heard it for months now but, really, the next month will be very telling. We are also a week out from the Memorial Day parties so we should have a good indication of how damaging it was now or in a couple more days.

It's going to be interesting to see how the strains differ from area to area since there hasn't been much international travel, so while Italy may have a weaker strain NY may still have a more deadly strain, etc... Hopefully the virus continues to weaken if what the doctor says is true. Obviously the Italian doctor seems to be reputable, but there still isn't a peer reviewed study available, so as of right now it's hard to say how strong his statement is. 

What's crazy about the Spanish Flu from what I've read is the first wave was pretty mild, then a catastrophic second wave, a smaller third wave that didn't hit certain cities nearly as hard, and then it just vanished. It seems as if the virus mutated and eradicated itself and/or some sort of herd immunity was reached. This all happened with no vaccine. Now, influenza mutates at a much higher rate than Coronaviruses, but COVID-19 has been spreading like crazy, so there's no doubt it's had plenty of opportunity to mutate. Could it turn into another cold sooner than expected?

What's interesting is certain areas reached a point where they weren't hit nearly as hard as others at different times. Did certain areas reach herd immunity quicker due to less precaution? Some countries weren't hit nearly as hard during the second wave. Or was the virus mutating and either a) becoming less severe or b) becoming more deadly, but killing off the host too quickly. This may have happened at different times in different areas. 

We *may* see something similar with COVID. Certain areas that were hit hard may have strong herd immunity even if they haven't hit that 60-80% threshold some experts believe to be needed to severely slow the spread, or the virus may mutate to a much milder strain. It's important to note that it's estimated a total of 1/3 of the world was infected with the Spanish flu during its outbreak, which doesn't seem to be nearly enough to reach herd immunity given how fast it was spreading during the second wave. It seems likely that it started mutating or herd immunity was reached at a much lower level. It's important to note that this figure of 1/3 isn't a concrete number, but it's still a reference point. 

This is the first major pandemic in modern time that's had a huge impact on damn near every country in the world. We have better research, resources, and technology to learn a ton not only about Coronaviruses but also virus outbreaks in general. During the Spanish Flu doctors and scientists didn't even know what a flu was. They didn't know about R0 value, and I don't believe herd immunity was coined until the 1930s. There's so much we 're going to learn from the pandemic because it's happening in real time and we don't have to 'study history', which is always mucky.   

[TVScout]

The unrest has drowned out much of the CV-19 reporting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

Plus this: