Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WizeGuy]

43 minutes ago, seriously27 said:

Those numbers were from last week. 

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/

https://abcnews.go.com/International/sweden-stayed-open-coronavirus-pandemic-model-future/story?id=70666450

Hmm...according to this article they were taken in late April.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says

 

[seriously27]

35 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Hmm...according to this article they were taken in late April.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says

 

There may have been some confusion in the article I read then but a matter of a couple weeks is not really going to make much difference when they said they would be 20% higher by this time and the death rates are already skyrocketing. 

[vikesfan89]

Minnesota is a mess right now with all of the protesters looting and burning buildings down. Obligatory watch for the cases to spike in 2 weeks

[TVScout]

Researchers ponder why covid appears more deadly in the USA and Europe

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/researchers-ponder-why-covid-appears-more-deadly-in-the-us-and-europe-than-in-asia/2020/05/26/81889d06-8a9f-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html

Mapping the worldwide
spread of the coronavirus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/?itid=sn_coronavirus_3

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[TVScout]

Israeli scientists: Gaucher’s disease drugs effective against coronavirus

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-gauchers-disease-drugs-effective-against-coronavirus-629331

[Xenos]

11 hours ago, Slateman said:

I mean, okay. It's a sparsely populated, very homogeneous island with moderate tourism.

Frankly, Vietnam's record with COVID is far more impressive. 

Yes New Zealand does have distinct advantages. I mentioned this already several hundred pages ago. But it also helps that the leadership is doing all the right things.

[Shanedorf]

 

https://xkcd.com/1217/

Edited May 28, 2020 by Shanedorf

[theJ]

10 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Ok dammit what's the alt-text?

[mission27]

8 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

Minnesota is a mess right now with all of the protesters looting and burning buildings down. Obligatory watch for the cases to spike in 2 weeks

And you guys are already getting hit harder than most.  All around ****ty situation.

[mission27]

10 hours ago, seriously27 said:

There may have been some confusion in the article I read then but a matter of a couple weeks is not really going to make much difference when they said they would be 20% higher by this time and the death rates are already skyrocketing. 

To be fair, the death rate has been on an overall flat to downward trend since mid-April although not nearly as steep of a decline as we've seen in most countries, because they aren't taking the same kind of measures.  I agree they aren't at herd immunity clearly but they have managed to "flatten" the curve (albeit at a higher level than some other countries that are banking on getting to a vaccine before they reach herd immunity).

[vikesfan89]

40 minutes ago, mission27 said:

And you guys are already getting hit harder than most.  All around ****ty situation.

I'm glad I don't live too close to that

[mission27]

I do find it kind of interesting that when taking about death rates, folks tend to compare Sweden to Finland and Norway, countries that had almost no outbreaks.  Whereas when talking about antibody levels, they're compared to places like New York, London, and Madrid that had much more serious outbreaks and way more deaths per capita than Stockholm. 

Sweden's strategy all along was to try to avoid lockdown and allow the disease to make its way through the population while avoiding becoming New York.  And I think they've succeeded at that.  You can question the strategy and yes they've made some questionable claims about how quickly they'd get to herd immunity but its not like they ever said they would have the same death rate as a country that didn't have an outbreak or on the flip side that they'd have antibody levels comparable to NYC.  If you accept CFR is more or less constant outside of a healthcare failure scenario, your antibodies and death rate should be related, and all Sweden is trying to do is get to the 70% level or whatever over time to prevent that failure.

[TVScout]

Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Results of Completed Antibody Testing Study of 15,000 People Showing 12.3 Percent of Population Has COVID-19 Antibodies

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200528&instance_id=18902&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=29483&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200528&instance_id=18902&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=29483&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

 

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Results of Completed Antibody Testing Study of 15,000 People Showing 12.3 Percent of Population Has COVID-19 Antibodies

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200528&instance_id=18902&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=29483&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200528&instance_id=18902&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=29483&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

 

20% in NYC

Interesting that these numbers havent moved a ton over the last several weeks, although cases are way down even with more testing, so that could be a good sign that the reported numbers are legit

[mission27]

5/28/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"And it's new

The shape of your body, it's blue
The feeling I've got
And it's ooh, whoa oh
It's a cruel summer"

- Taylor Swift

USA and Canada doing GREAT!

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still!)

Netherlands: 0.4

France: 0.7

Belgium: 0.7

Italy: 0.9

UK: 0.9

Israel: 1.0

Portugal: 1.1

Japan: 1.2

Spain: 1.4

Switzerland: 1.6

USA: 1.9

Australia: 1.9

Czech Republic: 2.2

Sweden: 2.2

Singapore: 2.8

Philippines: 3.2

 

Global: 3.0

Turkey: 3.0

Germany: 3.6

Austria: 4.1

Ireland: 4.1

China: 4.6

Hong Kong: 6.0

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Canada: 3.1 (all-time low! tomorrow could be the day? or at the least this weekend? now @JBURGE put your big boy pants on an open the damn border)

Russia: 4.0

South Korea: 4.4 (A note: the reason we have moved South Korea into Tier 2 and left other countries like Hong Kong and China in Tier 1 is that South Korea's jump is driven by a huge jump in cases (the numerator) which is indicative of a new mini outbreak, rather than a fall in active cases (the denominator) which is a normal part of the downslope, SK has done a great job so far in containing these things and we expect they'll do the same here in which case they'll be back in Tier 1)

Denmark: 4.8

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Iran: 9.6 (gonna need a few more days in the single digits before we move them)

India: 10.2

Brazil: 11.1 (second day in a row Brazil had more new cases than the US, really unfortunate, remember though like the USA Brazil has hundreds of millions of people so their raw case numbers are going to be higher than a country like the UK)

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 26.3

USA State Level MoLs

Minnesota starting to move in the right direction although the (very understandable) protest situation could make matters worse on the Corona front, our thoughts are with the people of Minnesota.  Rest of the country generally seems to be doing better.  PA jump is due to reporting a bunch of recoveries a week ago which raise the denominator (this was mentioned in this thread already) but they're firmly on the downslope. 

MoL Deaths

Deaths went back down today and are now lower on a trailing 7 day average than they were yesterday (actually below 1k for the first time since April 3rd).  Which is great news.  While it looks like there was a small backlog yesterday from the long weekend for the most part the progress appears to be very real!  The same is true in the case numbers we've seen.  We'll see how tomorrow goes because Fridays can be big days too, but so far the mid-week numbers have been very strong.

Canada

Great job @JBURGE

Everyone headed in the right direction now, all-time low for Canada, and may break into Tier 1 tomorrow if not almost certainly will this weekend.  Very encouraging.  

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)