FFMD 20 Writers Room

[jrry32]

23 minutes ago, JIllg said:

52nd Pick of J.K. Dobbins to the Los Angeles Rams:

Grade - C+

Here’s another of the running backs. The analytic models why you shouldn’t invest heavily in them are all over the place. Pick your own white paper! Or take a look at the Los Angeles Rams. They had one of the very best offensive lines in the league and wonked on folks. They had one of the very worst and didn’t. Even in the playoffs, they wonked on folks with old man C.J. Anderson as long as they had the appropriate offensive line. Dobbins was a very fun player to watch in college. He’ll fit pretty well with what they do in the run game (though he’s more of an inside zone/gap guy). But he’s another one that has never run routes or really caught anything. And he’s not the absurd home run threat that Taylor is. Plus, the Rams have very real needs. Like offensive linemen! I’ve heard they open holes for running backs. 

Nothing bothers me more than people who don't know all the different schemes trying to treat the NFL as one size fits all. Yes, the OL matters. But there wasn't a dominant interior OL available to pick. The quality of OL remains basically the same from now until our picks in the 3rd. The 49ers can treat HBs as not being valuable because they aren't in your scheme. It's more about finding a particular skillset than a dominant player. Shanahan can find that skillset pretty much anywhere. It's just about identifying the right player. When he does, they'll produce.

Our scheme is different. Our scheme revolves around versatility at the HB position. McVay's offense works because it doesn't have tells when it is run right. McVay designs his offense so that many of the plays look exactly the same based on pre-snap alignment and the first few post-snap ticks. It causes defenses to be a step slow in trying to anticipate what we do. But the only way that works is if we have versatile players who don't give away what we're doing. It's why we rely on specialists a lot less than the rest of the league. Our WRs and TEs must be able to contribute in both the run and passing games. Our HB must be a dangerous runner, a dangerous receiver, and a capable pass protector. We do not have the sort of scheme where specialist HBs work. 

If you had asked me before the draft started whether we should take a HB with our first pick, I'd tell you no. But you go with value. And the best value there was Dobbins. He fits our scheme beautifully, he fills a need, and he was the BPA. And I disagree that Dobbins doesn't fit the outside zone. He murdered people running off tackle at OSU. And most importantly, he's a major weapon in the passing game (could not disagree more that Dobbins has never really caught anything). Simply put, the HB position in our offensive scheme is quite important, and Dobbins fits exactly what we needed there. Additionally, it should be noted that while C.J. Anderson put up good rushing numbers, his passing game limitations held back our offense.

[Ghostnote]

16 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

I'd take him at 53 for the Eagles and love it. He is S 3 right behind McKinney and Delpit

I dont even have Delpit that high. 

McKinney

Winfield

Dugger

Chinn 

Delpit

[baltimoreRebel]

12 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Nothing bothers me more than people who don't know all the different schemes trying to treat the NFL as one size fits all. Yes, the OL matters. But there wasn't a dominant interior OL available to pick. The quality of OL remains basically the same from now until our picks in the 3rd. The 49ers can treat HBs as not being valuable because they aren't in your scheme. It's more about finding a particular skillset than a dominant player. Shanahan can find that skillset pretty much anywhere. It's just about identifying the right player. When he does, they'll produce.

Our scheme is different. Our scheme revolves around versatility at the HB position. McVay's offense works because it doesn't have tells when it is run right. McVay designs his offense so that many of the plays look exactly the same based on pre-snap alignment and the first few post-snap ticks. It causes defenses to be a step slow in trying to anticipate what we do. But the only way that works is if we have versatile players who don't give away what we're doing. It's why we rely on specialists a lot less than the rest of the league. Our WRs and TEs must be able to contribute in both the run and passing games. Our HB must be a dangerous runner, a dangerous receiver, and a capable pass protector. We do not have the sort of scheme where specialist HBs work. 

If you had asked me before the draft started whether we should take a HB with our first pick, I'd tell you no. But you go with value. And the best value there was Dobbins. He fits our scheme beautifully, he fills a need, and he was the BPA. And I disagree that Dobbins doesn't fit the outside zone. He murdered people running off tackle at OSU. And most importantly, he's a major weapon in the passing game (could not disagree more that Dobbins has never really caught anything). Simply put, the HB position in our offensive scheme is quite important, and Dobbins fits exactly what we needed there. Additionally, it should be noted that while C.J. Anderson put up good rushing numbers, his passing game limitations held back our offense.

If you have to explain your pick this much, I mean... 

🤷‍♂️

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, BowserBroncos said:

He's a nice way to replace Walker.

We already have Jonnu, whose pro comparison on the combine's website was literally Delanie Walker.  He's been good, and may get extended soon.

This is more about BPA than anything else.  Arthur Smith didn't run a two tight end set very often this past season, but Walker was injured for most of it, so that's probably his problem.  He was a TE coach before that, so I imagine he'd be psyched to get a new weapon at the position.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Daniel

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, baltimoreRebel said:

If you have to explain your pick this much, I mean... 

🤷‍♂️

I wouldn't think I'd have to explain a team that just cut its star HB due to his declining health drafting J.K. Dobbins in the late second round. But here we are. And it all comes back to people not understanding that there is no one-size-fits-all philosophy to team building and positional value.

Edited April 6, 2020 by jrry32

[Forge]

7 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I wouldn't think I'd have to explain a team that just cut its star HB due to his declining health drafting J.K. Dobbins in the late second round. But here we are. And it all comes back to people not understanding that there is no one-size-fits-all philosophy to team building and positional value.

I'm not a fan of paying big money to running backs or drafting them high. I think it's a bit of a mistake. Late second round picks don't really qualify as either of those in my opinion. 

[jrry32]

Just now, Forge said:

I'm not a fan of paying big money to running backs or drafting them high. I think it's a bit of a mistake. Late second round picks don't really qualify as either of those in my opinion. 

In our scheme, it's worth it if we pay them early enough. The key is to have the contract end when their useful life as a NFL player does. Of course, you can never anticipate a guy like Gurley going down before he even hits his athletic prime because of a bum knee. Hopefully, he can bounce back and have a couple more good years before he calls it quits. Regardless, the HB position is very important in our scheme. Much of the offense is designed around the strengths of that position, and it must be one player able to fill all those different roles for it to work.

[FalconFan13]

42 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

I'd take him at 53 for the Eagles and love it. He is S 3 right behind McKinney and Delpit

I think you meant Safety 5 behind  Winfield, Mckinney, Delpit, and Dugger.

[EaglesPeteC]

2 minutes ago, FalconFan13 said:

I think you meant Safety 5 behind  Winfield, Mckinney, Delpit, and Dugger.

[JIllg]

59 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Nothing bothers me more than people who don't know all the different schemes trying to treat the NFL as one size fits all. Yes, the OL matters. But there wasn't a dominant interior OL available to pick. The quality of OL remains basically the same from now until our picks in the 3rd. The 49ers can treat HBs as not being valuable because they aren't in your scheme. It's more about finding a particular skillset than a dominant player. Shanahan can find that skillset pretty much anywhere. It's just about identifying the right player. When he does, they'll produce.

Our scheme is different. Our scheme revolves around versatility at the HB position. McVay's offense works because it doesn't have tells when it is run right. McVay designs his offense so that many of the plays look exactly the same based on pre-snap alignment and the first few post-snap ticks. It causes defenses to be a step slow in trying to anticipate what we do. But the only way that works is if we have versatile players who don't give away what we're doing. It's why we rely on specialists a lot less than the rest of the league. Our WRs and TEs must be able to contribute in both the run and passing games. Our HB must be a dangerous runner, a dangerous receiver, and a capable pass protector. We do not have the sort of scheme where specialist HBs work. 

If you had asked me before the draft started whether we should take a HB with our first pick, I'd tell you no. But you go with value. And the best value there was Dobbins. He fits our scheme beautifully, he fills a need, and he was the BPA. And I disagree that Dobbins doesn't fit the outside zone. He murdered people running off tackle at OSU. And most importantly, he's a major weapon in the passing game (could not disagree more that Dobbins has never really caught anything). Simply put, the HB position in our offensive scheme is quite important, and Dobbins fits exactly what we needed there. Additionally, it should be noted that while C.J. Anderson put up good rushing numbers, his passing game limitations held back our offense.

Your take is thought out and interesting, even if I still disagree. I will offer a brief rebuttal: 

1. The argument that offensive line drop off between here an the top of the third is sound. 

2. The point about Dobbins’ fit in the scheme is well taken after film rewatch - I had very little need to scout running backs this year and my knowledge was obviously spotty on that front. I have to make pretty quick takes based on what I know, and this was a soft spot. 

3. The point about him as a pass catcher mostly wasn’t. He caught the passes thrown to him, but didn’t run the kinds of zig outs, skinny posts, and more interesting things that the Rams did with Gurley in 2017 and 2018 and that LSU did with Clyde-Edwards Helaire. 

4. Your point about running backs being more important to McVay than Shanahan is specious, in my opinion. We spread out our running backs as wide receivers just as much and use them in similar ways in the running game. We just rely on three or four guys to do the job that Todd Gurley did, which is more financially viable and insures better against injury. 

5. Your point about Gurley’s value to the passing game opening up other options in the 2018 playoffs is well-taken, but it doesn’t undercut that fact that offensive linemen are far more valuable to the running game than running backs are. 

Edited April 6, 2020 by JIllg

[JIllg]

53rd Overall Pick of Julian Okwara to the Indianapolis Colts:

Grade - A

Okwara is quality value here, as he has similar traits to Gross-Matos taken late in the first and was more productive on a per-snap pass rush basis in college. He isn’t the run defender Gross-Matos is, but that really doesn’t matter this late in the game. Good fit, good value, and the Colts end up with a defensive line that can attack 1v1 with quality players in addition to having good coaching making the entire defensive unit work better than the sum of its parts. 

 

54th Overall Pick of Lloyd Cushenberry to the Baltimore Ravens:

Grade - A

Cushenberry is great value here, and even better in the Ravens gap scheme. Under Greg Roman, the 49ers had a bunch of offensive linemen that could wonk on people 1 on 1 in the trenches to open up holes for Frank Gore. Cushenberry will love it, having done mostly duo and other gap-similar stuff in college. Cushenberry can play guard to fill Marshal Yanda’s spot and eventually sink into the pivot. Cushenberry is also a quality pass protector one-on-one, using his excellent anchor to stifle bull rushes and latching on with iron hands.

 

55th Overall Pick of Jordan Love to the Chicago Bears:

Grade - A

I don’t Love the guy as a first round prospect. His final season at Utah State was filled with a bunch of boneheaded mental mistakes. He did have a major change in personnel and coordinator, and that undoubtably hurt him. Either way, he has too much on tape to be comfortable early. But if you get to take him here, his physical upside and arm talent is too much to ignore. He doesn’t have to be good in his first year or two to be possibly immensely valuable to the Bears, cornerbacks and offensive linemen be damned. Reminds me a touch of the Colin Kaepernick pick for the 49ers, and that helped produce a couple of crazy playoff runs. 

 

56th Overall Pick of Cole Kmet to the Tennessee Titans:

Grade - B+

Cole Kmet is going to have a very specific role in the NFL, but I think he’s going to perform it well. He’s very strong and tall with long arms, which makes him difficult to deal with on jump seam passes and makes him a strong blocker in the running game. Just those two things gives you essentially Gronk-lite. Gronk-lite is quality value here. 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by JIllg

[jrry32]

26 minutes ago, JIllg said:

3. The point about him as a pass catcher mostly wasn’t. He caught the passes thrown to him, but didn’t run the kinds of zig outs, skinny posts, and more interesting things that the Rams did with Gurley in 2017 and 2018 and that LSU did with Clyde-Edwards Helaire. 

Dobbins ran a lot of wheel routes and showed the ability to make catches down the field. He can be taught the route tree and has the quickness to be an effective route runner. The natural receiving skills are there.

Quote

4. Your point about running backs being more important to McVay than Shanahan is specious, in my opinion. We spread out our running backs as wide receivers just as much and use them in similar ways in the running game. We just rely on three or four guys to do the job that Todd Gurley did, which is more financially viable and insures better against injury. 

I don't think it is. One of the things the Shanahans have excelled at for years and years is finding effective runners in their schemes just about anywhere. Breida and Mostert weren't exactly highly touted players. In that system, it's about finding a certain skillset, which makes them far less valuable when it comes to individual players. It's like Pete Carroll and CBs. Why spend a high pick on a CB when you can develop players from the 3rd round on into effective starters? The 49ers' secret isn't that they have three or four guys who can do what Todd Gurley did. It's that the scheme allows those three or four guys to produce like Todd Gurley did.

Quote

5. Your point about Gurley’s value to the passing game opening up other options in the 2018 playoffs is well-taken, but it doesn’t undercut that fact that offensive linemen are far more valuable to the running game than running backs are. 

There are five offensive linemen on the field at any given time. There's only one HB (normally). It's no surprise that 5 OLs are collectively worth more than 1 HB. But our OL situation is a bit odd. We have a ton of question marks but maybe not the need people think. I think we need one interior OL for sure. Beyond that, we may not need anything more. Right now, we have:

LT: Whit

LG: Evans?

C: Blythe

RG: Edwards

RT: Havenstein

Reserve: Noteboom

Reserve: Corbett

Reserve: Brewer

Reserve: Allen

We'll likely only keep 9 OLs. There are 9 OLs right there. Replacing Allen or Brewer with an upgrade is a good idea, but due to all the injuries we had last year, a lot of our young guys were forced to play. That has put us in the position of actually having a good amount of depth. The question is how good guys like Edwards, Corbett, and Evans can be and whether people like Havenstein and Blythe can bounce back to their 2018 form (Blythe looked much better when we moved him to C last year). 

[Daniel]

4 minutes ago, JIllg said:

56th Overall Pick of Cole Kmet to the Tennessee Titans:

Grade - B+

Cole Kmet is going to have a very specific role in the NFL, but I think he’s going to perform it well. He’s very strong and tall with long arms, which makes him difficult to deal with on jump seam passes and makes him a strong blocker in the running game. Just those two things gives you essentially Gronk-lite. Gronk-lite is quality value here. 

 

Since he hasn't filled out his frame yet, he's literally Gronk light right now.  I do expect him to develop more as a blocker with NFL coaches teaching him and with him likely adding more weight in the NFL.  Will be a matchup problem, and between him, Jonnu, AJ, and Henry, Titans would have plenty of big powerful YAC playmakers.

[JIllg]

18 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Since he hasn't filled out his frame yet, he's literally Gronk light right now.  I do expect him to develop more as a blocker with NFL coaches teaching him and with him likely adding more weight in the NFL.  Will be a matchup problem, and between him, Jonnu, AJ, and Henry, Titans would have plenty of big powerful YAC playmakers.

Agreed. I think he’s largely going to end up as Gronk-Lite because Gronk-Classic was a nasty YAC guy in addition to the aforementioned traits. I don’t think that’s ever going to be a part of Kmet’s skill set. But that’s fine! Gronk-Lite is a good place to be. 

Edited April 6, 2020 by JIllg

[PR]

Any grade on the Judon trade Writers room?