The Tom Brady Thread

[Hunter2_1]

On 12/4/2020 at 6:33 PM, Saint_James said:

Hey man they are playing dirty so I had to pull a card from the bottom of the deck myself 🤣  Looking back, they clearly made a mistake that year.  My logic is flawless!

Anyway the point is the quarterback that the "experts" said was the most valuable, went down in flames to another quarterback in the biggest game.   Why is pointing that out ridiculous??  

[rich homie]

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Actually can't wait til TB retires. Some of you absolute morons will move on to the next pour soul. 

You'd thinking reading some of this **** that he's now a bad QB

He is a QB now (not even mentioning anything before this season) that;

is 4th in TDs behind Mahomes, Wilson and Rogers....

is 1st in completions

is 2nd in yards 

is 2nd passing first downs behind Mahomes only

is 3rd in 20 + yard completions behind Mahomes, Rogers and Watson

 

So he's behind only the top QBs in all stats really. And he's the only new one to a team. Oh and there was no pre-season.

Nobody thought TB would be better than Wilson, Rogers and Mahomes. Nobody making sense thought that. But seriously, what are some of you watching? He's doing well! 

 

To be more accurate, when you look at the efficiency he's

25th in completion percentage

9th in touchdown percentage

19th in interception percentage

23rd in yards per attempt

20th in adjusted ypa

23rd in yards per completion

15th in passer rating

20th in net yards gained per attempt

16th in adjusted yards per attempt

The reason he is so high in volume stats is because he has thrown for 474 attempts, which is 43 more attempts than the guy at #2 (Roethlisberger).

[7DnBrnc53]

4 hours ago, Saint_James said:

Yeah I can understand that.  It wasn't like I had a lot to be proud about before Drew Brees came around either.  But good lord, the absolute idolatry of Brady before he really even did all that much is absurd.

And yeah wow, I never heard someone call him the GOAT by 2005 but that is ridiculous.  How could anyone being paid to speak on sports even say such a thing?  Oh wait, was it this guy by any chance?

No, it wasn't. I think it was a show where they interviewed him, and the people gave their opinion about him. Bayless wasn't as big of a presence on ESPN then (he just started 1st and 10 the year before on Cold Pizza).

[GSUeagles14]

6 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Actually can't wait til TB retires. Some of you absolute morons will move on to the next pour soul. 

You'd thinking reading some of this **** that he's now a bad QB

He is a QB now (not even mentioning anything before this season) that;

is 4th in TDs behind Mahomes, Wilson and Rogers....

is 1st in completions

is 2nd in yards 

is 2nd passing first downs behind Mahomes only

is 3rd in 20 + yard completions behind Mahomes, Rogers and Watson

 

So he's behind only the top QBs in all stats really. And he's the only new one to a team. Oh and there was no pre-season.

Nobody thought TB would be better than Wilson, Rogers and Mahomes. Nobody making sense thought that. But seriously, what are some of you watching? He's doing well! 

 

context matters man, and hes had the deck stacked in his favor as much as any qb in recent history. ANd thats not only true when it comes to players, but play calling as well, like I doubt the Bucs told him "all we care about is you proving a point to the pats so run your stats up",   but Arians hasnt hidden the fact that Brady has a bigger hand in play calling than he apparently would like, and they are throwing early and often in goal to go opportunities. All that to say its been a friend system to putting up nice TD/yardage totals. But if thats all you look at WInston is a franchise QB.

 

Now Brady is infinitely better as a QB than Winston, but the production isnt that impressive when you include context. He hasnt played bad, but hes hasnt really been a top 10 QB either. Hes clearly aged, and at times he just doesnt look good. Overall hes been a slightly above average QB id say, at age 43 thats pretty darn impressive. 

[Saint_James]

2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

How is he in the sewer when he's literally putting up stats inferior only to Mahomes, Rogers and Wilson? If you don't want to be called a moron, stop acting like one. He's not playing great anymore, but let's not act like his number of yards, TDs, first downs and completions is in the sewer 🤣

Name and shame people on here

 

I called Tampa Bay a sewer....I didn't say what you are saying.  Reading comprehension much? 

[GSUeagles14]

1 hour ago, rich homie said:

To be more accurate, when you look at the efficiency he's

25th in completion percentage

9th in touchdown percentage

19th in interception percentage

23rd in yards per attempt

20th in adjusted ypa

23rd in yards per completion

15th in passer rating

20th in net yards gained per attempt

16th in adjusted yards per attempt

The reason he is so high in volume stats is because he has thrown for 474 attempts, which is 43 more attempts than the guy at #2 (Roethlisberger).

wow, you actually look at all those and I may have to change my mind a little bit. I said he was slightly above average, now maybe slightly below is more accurate. All those #s are with an absolutely loaded offense. That should ding him even more.

[Saint_James]

10 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

context matters man, and hes had the deck stacked in his favor as much as any qb in recent history. ANd thats not only true when it comes to players, but play calling as well, like I doubt the Bucs told him "all we care about is you proving a point to the pats so run your stats up",   but Arians hasnt hidden the fact that Brady has a bigger hand in play calling than he apparently would like, and they are throwing early and often in goal to go opportunities. All that to say its been a friend system to putting up nice TD/yardage totals. But if thats all you look at WInston is a franchise QB.

 

Now Brady is infinitely better as a QB than Winston, but the production isnt that impressive when you include context. He hasnt played bad, but hes hasnt really been a top 10 QB either. Hes clearly aged, and at times he just doesnt look good. Overall hes been a slightly above average QB id say, at age 43 thats pretty darn impressive. 

 

You make good points and I think I have too, but you can see how they treat anyone who doesn't just worship at the altar of TB12.  Seriously in their minds there's zero argument.  It's Tom Brady best thing ever, and there's not even a second place.

 

[Archimedes]

What Brady is doing this year is amazing from the perspective that he’s 43, and still playing at an above average level. But he hasn’t even been close to elite this year. All of the advanced metrics and the eye test back that up, which make PFF’s 89 grade of him moronic and removes much of their credibility.

[childofpudding]

On 12/4/2020 at 8:07 AM, Saint_James said:

Okay but then you go on to say...

So MVP is about being the best statistical QB...unless you play in a dome.  Then your stats are too good so they don't count as much?   Real consistent argument...

Because Drew Brees has done all that, consistently, and he never got an MVP.  Even when he lead his team to the Super Bowl and won.   He's lead the league in passing 7 times, take your pick.  He's had historically great seasons.  He's broke EVERY record.  He's the only quarterback ever who's had multiple 5k yard seasons, and he's had FOUR.  Let that sink in.  Where's the MVP's?   You said the MVP is about the best QB stats, fine, so you can't walk that back now.

A bunch of sports writers get together and decide the MVP.  So please, please don't tell me it's not a popularity contest and these guys are unbiased.   They've always loved, and I mean LOVED, the Tom Brady story.   Sixth round QB that nobody wanted, came in for an injured Drew Bledsoe, lit the world on fire bla bla bla.   National sports media is biased, we know they are.  Why even try and make such an absurd argument that such a flawed process truly results in the "most valuable" player being picked every year?  Come on, not even you can actually believe that. 

National sports media has always had it out for Drew Brees.  He's not flashy enough, he's not sexy enough, he's too humble, he's not tall enough, he doesn't throw bombs enough - New Orleans isn't a historic successful football city like their favorite teams are in - whatever.  He's never got the respect he's deserved.   The ultimate proof, beyond the MVP discussion, is his utterly disrespectful snub of the NFL All Time 100 team.  Putting trash like Brett Favre on that team while omitting Brees is simply proof positive that personal feelings and bias cloud all these awards and titles.   They ARE popularity contests. 

 LOL!!!  Right, let's just totally throw out the fact that head-to-head in the Super Bowl, Drew Brees DESTROYED Payton Manning while having the 25'th ranked defense in the NFL that season.   Are you serious with this?   No, the Saints asked FAR more from Drew Brees that year.   In fact carrying a horrible defense and still winning games and setting records is the STORY of the mans career.   And that should earn some measure of respect and acknowledgement. 

You love Brady, fine.   Just don't tell me that they ever asked more from him than managing the system while relying on historically good defenses to pull him from the fire over and over. 

TLDR: Brees "fanboi" spends a dozen pages crying about Brady "fanbois"

[childofpudding]

20 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

What Brady is doing this year is amazing from the perspective that he’s 43, and still playing at an above average level. But he hasn’t even been close to elite this year. All of the advanced metrics and the eye test back that up, which make PFF’s 89 grade of him moronic and removes much of their credibility.

Yep, this is a good take. As I said earlier in this thread, he's declining and that has hurt his consistency and will continue to do so. From what I've seen this year from him, the decline is somewhat physical but is mostly in his decision making, which was evident last season with the Patriots as well. For 43 he's doing great. But he's definitely no longer the elite QB that he was a few years ago.

Edited December 6, 2020 by childofpudding

[Troy Brown]

nobody actually thinks brees was a better qb than brady right? 

[Troy Brown]

21 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

TLDR: Brees "fanboi" spends a dozen pages crying about Brady "fanbois"

brady system qb. brees not system qb. duh

[CP3MVP]

3 hours ago, Archimedes said:

What Brady is doing this year is amazing from the perspective that he’s 43, and still playing at an above average level. But he hasn’t even been close to elite this year. All of the advanced metrics and the eye test back that up, which make PFF’s 89 grade of him moronic and removes much of their credibility.

Ehh that’s not true he’s 5th in DYAR and 6th in DOVA

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2020

And PFF adjusts for Drops. For example against the panthers week 2 he had over 100 yards and 2 clear cut touchdowns dropped. They account for that.

Edited December 6, 2020 by CP3MVP

[Archimedes]

1 hour ago, CP3MVP said:

Ehh that’s not true he’s 5th in DYAR and 6th in DOVA

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2020

And PFF adjusts for Drops. For example against the panthers week 2 he had over 100 yards and 2 clear cut touchdowns dropped. They account for that.

Ok, well let’s examine this further.

DYAR, I’m not as interested in, but let’s look at his actual DVOA value. Yes, he’s ranked 6th, but the numerical value for for that is 16.8%. Mahomes at 1 is 40.9%, and Rodgers at 2 is 35.6%. Philip Rivers is sitting at 12th at 12.2%. So his raw rank is high, but his actual value says his play has been much closer to a guy like Rivers, who’s basically been just ok this year, as opposed to Mahomes and Rodgers, both of whom have been elite. So that tracks with other advanced stats and the eye test.

PFF, by contrast, has his grade at a 89.0. They have Mahomes at 2, at 92.0, Rodgers at 1, at 93.1, and Rivers at 18th, at 75.6. So PFF would have people believe that his play has been much closer to Mahomes and Rodgers than Rivers... I’m sorry but that doesn’t remotely track, and factoring in drops doesn’t do it. PFF is basically screaming into the void that Brady is still playing an elite level, which he pretty clearly isn’t.

Brady has been ok this year. At 43, that’s damned impressive, but there’s no reason to make it more than it is.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Archimedes

[Tugboat]

13 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

context matters man, and hes had the deck stacked in his favor as much as any qb in recent history. ANd thats not only true when it comes to players, but play calling as well, like I doubt the Bucs told him "all we care about is you proving a point to the pats so run your stats up",   but Arians hasnt hidden the fact that Brady has a bigger hand in play calling than he apparently would like, and they are throwing early and often in goal to go opportunities. All that to say its been a friend system to putting up nice TD/yardage totals. But if thats all you look at WInston is a franchise QB.

 

Now Brady is infinitely better as a QB than Winston, but the production isnt that impressive when you include context. He hasnt played bad, but hes hasnt really been a top 10 QB either. Hes clearly aged, and at times he just doesnt look good. Overall hes been a slightly above average QB id say, at age 43 thats pretty darn impressive. 

I don't really disagree with any of this.  I think it's a fair assessment of where Brady is at these days.  He's...an above average QB, who is starting to show his age, and in a system that is probably allowing/pushing him to do more than he really should be at this stage of his career.

 

I think it's worth pointing out however, that the difference between a Top-10 QB and an "above average" QB, really isn't that great, or unanimous at this point.  There are the "elite" QBs in the league that most everyone would consider to be up in that top echelon.  But i don't think there are 10 of them right now.  Certainly not 16.  That whole range from 10-16 is such a mushy middle of subjectivity and volatility.  Brady managing to be "above average", puts him firmly in that spread, and i think the track record and doing it with a new team pushes him nearer toward the top end of that "above average" but "not elite" spectrum.  On the whole, right now he's probably still hovering around the fringes of that Top-10 range.  Which is nuts, for an old man deciding to switch teams and coaches and systems, at that late point in his career.  And simultaneously being asked to do, probably more than he's ever done in his career through the air.

 

The reality is...the league still doesn't have a whole surplus of good, reliable Top-10 caliber QBs.  So Brady, even if he's not quite there anymore...just managing to hang around the fringes of that, is impressive, and valuable to a team.