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Who gets left out in the AFC?


Slingin' Sammy

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PIT and BUF have nothing left to play for I don't think?

I see BUF beating NE and then losing to MIA (resting starters after a short week, playoff game for MIA).

I also see Cleveland beating a PIT team with nothing to play for.

I see TEN easily dispatching HOU w/o Watson, so they're a shoo-in.

Biggest question is CLE vs PIT. If PIT plays for real, they could gift Indy a seat after they handle JAX.

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7 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

PIT and BUF have nothing left to play for I don't think?

I see BUF beating NE and then losing to MIA (resting starters after a short week, playoff game for MIA).

I also see Cleveland beating a PIT team with nothing to play for.

I see TEN easily dispatching HOU w/o Watson, so they're a shoo-in.

Biggest question is CLE vs PIT. If PIT plays for real, they could gift Indy a seat after they handle JAX.

Week 17 Pit and Buf are playing for the right to NOT face the Chiefs in the 2nd round

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10 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

PIT and BUF have nothing left to play for I don't think?

I see BUF beating NE and then losing to MIA (resting starters after a short week, playoff game for MIA).

I also see Cleveland beating a PIT team with nothing to play for.

I see TEN easily dispatching HOU w/o Watson, so they're a shoo-in.

Biggest question is CLE vs PIT. If PIT plays for real, they could gift Indy a seat after they handle JAX.

Really depends on how much teams value the 2 seed and getting 2 home playoff games this season. Even with no crowds, teams might still value not having to travel, especially when you're trying to balance COVID protocols on top of everything else. And the 2 seed means you avoid KC's side of the bracket - yeah you most likely gotta go through them either way but it's probably preferable to meet them in the AFC Championship Game where you're not playing them off a bye week and you've theoretically picked up a bit of a head of steam from winning 2 playoff games. 

Is that more important than giving yourself a quasi-bye week next week ahead of the playoffs starting? Maybe not - maybe a situation where they put the starters out there for the 1st half and potentially start pulling guys depending on what the scoreboards look like. 

Edited by SalvadorsDeli
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8 minutes ago, Slingin' Sammy said:

So it looks like if the Ravens win this week then they are in. Where are all of their fans crying that their season was over? @AFlaccoSeagulls?

I said our season was over?

We needed help to get in. We got help from the most random of places (the Jets beating the Browns? LOL). It's really that simple. We needed a miracle, and got one.

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2 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Week 17 Pit and Buf are playing for the right to NOT face the Chiefs in the 2nd round

hm, not sure this is right.

PIT can't finish below 3rd seed. If BUF wins tonight, they can't either. So there's positively no way PIT could face them in 2nd round. It would come down to hosting a divisional game if PIT/BUF are the 2/3 seeds. I suspect that's enough to make PIT want to play to win.

In this case, I see PIT knocking CLE out of the playoffs.

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Certainly depends on how they look tonight but McDermott has made it pretty clear he values the 2nd seed. I think we see starters next week against Miami. 

Probably some scoreboard watching and see how the Steelers game is going. I think the Steelers would benefit from resting their starters more (because their bye week was so long ago) than Buffalo would.

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13 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

hm, not sure this is right.

PIT can't finish below 3rd seed. If BUF wins tonight, they can't either. So there's positively no way PIT could face them in 2nd round. It would come down to hosting a divisional game if PIT/BUF are the 2/3 seeds. I suspect that's enough to make PIT want to play to win.

In this case, I see PIT knocking CLE out of the playoffs.

Yes this is correct. Pit and buff fighting for the chance at a 2nd home playoff game...which would come against eachother if they both win round one lol.

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I don't see any scenario the Bills rest their starters next week even if they win or lose tonight.

They want the #2 seed and the 2nd home playoff game if they win their 1st round matchup. 

Playing in Buffalo in January even with minimal fans would not be fun for a dome team like Indy, warm weather team like Miami and to a lesser degree Tennessee. 

Next week sure will be interesting.

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31 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

It wasn't a "miracle", at every point it was always statistically very likely (i.e. >90%) that if the Ravens win all their games, they would get in.

No it wasn't lol we needed to win out and receive help from several other teams. Heck, without the Browns losing to the Jets and the Colts collapsing against the Steelers we'd still be longshots to make it in IIRC. We were never in control of our season until several unlikely things happened.

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8 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

No it wasn't lol we needed to win out and receive help from several other teams. Heck, without the Browns losing to the Jets and the Colts collapsing against the Steelers we'd still be longshots to make it in IIRC. We were never in control of our season until several unlikely things happened.

You're trying too hard to be the objective guy again.

Starting last week, there were 9 potential games that would have gotten the Ravens in the playoffs if we won out (any one of the Colts, Browns or Dolphins just needed to lose one of their remaining 3 games).

The only way we would miss the playoffs if we went 11-5 was that all 9 of those games went against us.

You think it's a miracle that there wasn't a string of games that ended up 0-9 in our favor?

I was nervous heading into the scenarios too but come on man, it's not a "miracle" we ended up getting the help we needed lol. It was always "more likely than not" one of those 9 games would fall our way. I certainly didn't agree with the projections that said we had like a 99.6% chance at the playoffs if we won out, but you're going way too far on the other end of the spectrum.

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