What to do at QB?

[jsthomp2007]

3 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

This is the big question - could Watson win the SB with the current roster? - because we are not going to get anything from the draft for three years if we were to trade for him and we would probably have very little cap space for FAs either.

In my opinion the roster is not deep enough - and we need another couple of sold drafts to get into that position. I think this possibility has come a couple of years too early for us.

Now - here is why I could see it happening - selling the team would be more attractive with a franchise QB on the roster.

I don't think this is a Mike Ditka scenario. two to three first where we might waste them on potential QBS for a sure thing seems different to me.

[elliot878]

3 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I don't think this is a Mike Ditka scenario. two to three first where we might waste them on potential QBS for a sure thing seems different to me.

I agree, I think you throw the kitchen sink at Houston and go get Watson.  Here's my rationale.

1. With Lock at the top of this depth chart, we're going to be spending at least one first round pick on a QB in the next year or two.  It could be multiple firsts in order to move into position to get our guy.  So that's potentially two firsts for another unknown.
2. Deshaun Watson is 25 years old, there are 10-15 good years left in his career.
3. The Broncos have 4 of 5 starting OL spots filled for the next 4-5 years.  We're set to stage the best line we've had in a decade.
4. See point 3 and replace OL with WR & TE.
5. If MG3/Lindsay run into a wall, we don't need a premium pick to find a stud back, especially in an offense constructed like this one would be.
6. The defense is well coached and has solid talent.  This is where we might miss a first, but we have had much more luck drafting D than QB.

Whoever the GM ends up being, they would be stupid not to overpay for Deshaun Watson.

[thebestever6]

Off topic but with how valuable QBs are it amazes me the ineptitude of some organizations lol.

Take Detroit for example you got the third pick in the whole freaking draft Stafford is on the older side but you can still get a nice haul. He's been banged up towards the end off the seasons. And with the third pick you go corner lol?? Listen, I'm sure that corner will rebound and have a superb career 

 

But they seemed too pass up on Herbert at 3 because the GM and coach were in the hot seat they didn't have the time or resources to develop a young signal caller I get that's. With that said it's completely egregious that was the right pick for them.

And that guy has already thrown more tds in a season than Watson has prior to this year. He's on a rookie deal and his value is limitless.

[thebestever6]

51 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

Deshaun Watson is 25 years old, there are 10-15 good years left in his career

That's very optimistic guy takes a ton of sacks 50 this year with a rebuilt solidified Oline. 

I also would love too see a breakdown of his numbers this year. I mean his career high before this was 26 tds passing I don't think that's worth the trade value we've been talking. But at least those teams were vying for the playoffs. 

I think Watson is being a bit overrated currently we've seen people on this site kill people for garbage time numbers. He had an uptick this year 33 on a 4-12 football team I'd be curious to see the garbage time stats 

51 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

The defense is well coached and has solid talent.  This is where we might miss a first, but we have had much more luck drafting D than QB

You remove a teams top two round picks for three years it's gonna be significant regardless of how well coached they were. The big gripe this year on D was a lack of turnovers it he hard to see this changing if not getting worse without new talent.

And we saw a crappy Drew Lock led Broncos team destroy Houston just last year so I'm not confident it's a Catalyst to a Championship team. I even saw a Philly team two years ago outduel houston with a journeyman meh Nick Foles at Qb it would be hard getting used to that .

51 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

With Lock at the top of this depth chart, we're going to be spending at least one first round pick on a QB in the next year or two.  It could be multiple firsts in

Making rookie money as well can't understate that it really does handicap a franchise. Seattle has rebuilding that thing for years since Wilson hasn't been on his rookie deal with a mixed bag.

 

 

Allbright has reported that the Texans tried to reach out to Watson before the hire of Caserio. He tweeted there's two sides to every story. If that's the case I want no part and I see Cutler all over again. He's even likee two meteorologist or followed two from Chicago.

[The Helicopter]

Ok, so then throw in Von Miller or trade him for a first and a second.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, thebestever6 said:

That's very optimistic guy takes a ton of sacks 50 this year with a rebuilt solidified Oline. 

I also would love too see a breakdown of his numbers this year. I mean his career high before this was 26 tds passing I don't think that's worth the trade value we've been talking. But at least those teams were vying for the playoffs. 

I think Watson is being a bit overrated currently we've seen people on this site kill people for garbage time numbers. He had an uptick this year 33 on a 4-12 football team I'd be curious to see the garbage time stats 

 

Watson's supporting cast is beyond horrible - the one talent he had left, Will Fuller - is a UFA, and missed 6 games.     Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb (washed), no TE's, a fading David Johnson....and an OL that was 32nd in pass blocking (and you can argue that Watson might add to their problems by hanging on to the ball to make hero plays - but he's not making them 32nd from a league-average baseline, either), and 27th in run blocking.    

The "he could get hurt" angle, besides the fact that he's missed only 1 game in the last 3 seasons, would be vastly mitigated by coming to our OL (and for just 1 minute, marvel at the fact that after the last 2-3 years, this statement is actually borne out by actual metrics, lol).   

There are good reasons to question a mega-trade for Watson given the price, and whether we're good enough across the board otherwise (but then again, great QB play masks a lot of team holes elsewhere).   But doubting whether he's elite - sorry, that's a bridge too far.    Unlike some teams where the QB drives an expensive fully decked-out bus - Watson carried the HOU 2020 O on his shoulders.   He's that good, already.  And at age 25.   That's a career path to sustained, elite QB play.    A guy like him at the head of our O, it would be able to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes & co., and would be as promising as Herbert with his LAC weapons.   

The salary commitment argument is fine in a vacuum - but if you are getting elite QB play, it's more than worth it.   And keep in mind, by 2023 onwards, again, it's likely to be bargain-range if we are getting top-5 QB play.  

[thebestever6]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Unlike some teams where the QB drives an expensive fully decked-out bus - Watson carried the HOU 2020 O on his shoulders.   He's that good, already.  And at age 25.   That's a career path to sustained, elite QB play.    A guy like him at the head of our O, it would be able to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes & co., and would be as promising as Herbert with his LAC weapons. 

I'm not doubting whether he's elite or not I'm simply adding to the convo of whether it's worth giving up 3 first round picks plus 3 second round picks.

He had a phenomenal year but that still only got his team to 4-12 I'm trying to see how that translates to here. I mean 33 tds is definitely and outlier for him so I would like to see a closer look at that. His previous career high of 26 isn't shabby but Derek Carr had 27 tds this year to 9 ints  so that production can be had for less.

Now, if the 33 tds is a tip of the iceberg then I'm starting to listen.

[rcpbawler]

10 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm not doubting whether he's elite or not I'm simply adding to the convo of whether it's worth giving up 3 first round picks plus 3 second round picks.

He had a phenomenal year but that still only got his team to 4-12 I'm trying to see how that translates to here. I mean 33 tds is definitely and outlier for him so I would like to see a closer look at that. His previous career high of 26 isn't shabby but Derek Carr had 27 tds this year to 9 ints  so that production can be had for less.

Now, if the 33 tds is a tip of the iceberg then I'm starting to listen.

You kinda are though. How is he overrated yet elite? Is he Rodgers or Mahomes, no, but he's in the next tier for sure. Again, I don't really care what his TD numbers are, if you watch him play he's a killer and has been since his Clemson days. That Texans team had an awful year but still had a chance in the majority of those games and Watson is the sole reason why. BoB dismantled what was a good roster. He mortgaged the future for a LT in a win now move and traded away arguably the best WR in football for a busted David Johnson. 

If you want to question whether Watson is worth 3 #1s and 3 #2s, sure, but the dude is one of the few guys in the league where is something you even mull over.

[thebestever6]

21 minutes ago, rcpbawler said:

He mortgaged the future for a LT in a win now move and traded away arguably the best WR in football for a busted David Johnson. 

If you want to question whether Watson is worth 3 #1s and 3 #2s, sure, but the dude is one of the few guys in the league where is something you even mull over.

I thought BOB traded for Tunsil because Watson was being killed back there don't really view it as a win now move it was necessary not to kill his career via Colts with Andrew Luck they also doubled down and selected Howard.

And no I'm not questioning his eliteness at all. But we can't disregard that we have potentially two other elite QBs in the division. So it's not like boom we get him and most of our problems are solved.

I'm not end all be all on numbers but this year seems like an outlier in his small sample size of his career just pointing that out. 

I think you can be overrated as a QB meaning the impact he brings to a football team. If this was some cake division that you could own for a decade it's a completely different outlook see Houston and the AFC south before last season ., But you have Mahomes and Herbert in the AFC West.

[AKRNA]

From a practical standpoint I think such a trade would be a disaster, especially if we think it would close the gap between us and KC. 

Right now as far as points for and against, KC is 6th on offense, 10th on D. We're 28th on offense and 25th on D. Watson and MaHomes have similar cap numbers so not much difference there. The problem is, how do we close that gap on both sides of the ball if we have to wait 4 years before we've got a draft pick in the first 2 rounds.

We're no where near talented enough to take that kind of leap.

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by AKRNA

[thebestever6]

42 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

From a practical standpoint I think such a trade would be a disaster, especially if we think it would close the gap between us and KC. 

Right now as far as points for and against, KC is 6th on offense, 10th on D. We're 28th on offense and 25th on D. Watson and MaHomes have similar cap numbers so not much difference there. The problem is, how do we close that gap on both sides of the ball if we have to wait 4 years before we've got a draft pick in the first 2 rounds.

We're no where near talented enough to take that kind of leap.

 

Theoretical if we were there and needed a plug and play guy and Watson was it. You gotta account for injuries, players dropping off. This is a tough sport. 

[jolly red giant]

Such a trade would come down to one question - Would a Watson led team win the SB?

I am sure that we would make the play-offs consistently (probably as a wildcard) for the next 10 years - but I doubt very much that, with this current roster, without any top 60 draft picks for 3 years, the need to rebuild the defence and with very little wiggle room in the salary cap we would win the SB. If we did manage to pull it off then the new GM would be a miracle worker.

For that reason I am against trading for Watson - there would be no point in selling the future if it did not result in a SB win.

Lock may not be the future - and we may need to draft a future QB (a hit or miss) - but I could see us getting the same results as with Watson and still have the opportunity to put us over the top.

[jolly red giant]

14 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I think Watson is being a bit overrated currently we've seen people on this site kill people for garbage time numbers. He had an uptick this year 33 on a 4-12 football team I'd be curious to see the garbage time stats 

Nerd that I am I decided to look at some of Watson's stats for the year - and in relation to garbage time.

The Texans won 4 games - comfortable wins V Jags and Lions - one score wins V Jags and Patriots

Against the Jags they were leading 27-16 with 6mins left in the 3Q - Watson went 3-4 for 14yds, a fumble and a sack - Watson then went 0-2 and 1-3 on the next two possessions before the Jags scored a TD - W 27-25

Against the Pats they were leading 21-10 at H/T. The Texans had 4 possessions in the 2nd half - Watson went 0-1 - then 6-8 for 61 yds and a FG - then 4-5 for 42 yds and a FG - before 3 runs on the last possession - W 27-20

Three close losses -

Bengals - losing 24-27 with 10 mins left - Watson went 4-4 for 64 yds and a TD - Bengals responded with a TD - score 31-34 - Watson then went 1-1 for 15 yds a sack and a fumble - Bengals kick a FG - on the last possession Watson went 2-2 for 20 yds with the last pass leading to a series of laterals to end the game - L 31-37

Colts - losing 20-27 with 1.47 left - Watson went 6-7 for 60 yds with a receiver fumbling on the final play - Colts took a knee to win.

Steelers - Texans were leading 21-20 at the start of the 4Q - Watson went 3-6 for 42 yds  and an INT - the Steelers used 7 mins scoring a TD off the INT - next possession Watson sacked for -16 went 1-2 for 16 and on 4th&10 the Texans punted - L 28-21.

Six games were there were gaps in the 4Q

Closest game was the Browns - Browns were leading 10-0 with 13mins left  - Watson went 0-2 and a punt - then 6-7 for 75 yds and a TD - Browns ran out the clock with a 5 min drive - L 7-10. Watson's stats 20-30 for 163 and a TD.

Chiefs - losing 7-24 at the start of the 4Q - Watson threw an INT that led to a TD 6 plays later - then 4-6 for 52 yds and a TD - then 3-4 for 56yds and a TD and then 1-2 for 6yds to end the game. Watson's stats 20-32 for 253 yds 1TD and 1 INT.

Ravens - losing 13-23 at the start of the 4Q - Ravens scored a TD 13-30 - Watson went 4-6 for 52yds and a FG - Ravens responded with a FG - Watson went 1-1 for 8 and was sacked to force a punt. L 16-33. Watson's stats 25-36 for 275 yds 1TD and 1 INT

Viking - losing 16-31 with 11mins to play - Watson went 4-4 for 46 yds and a TD - then 3-5 for 54 yds. Texans had 1st&goal on the Vikings 4 - Watson fumbled on 4th&1 and the Texans turned over on downs - L 23-31. Watson's stats 20-33 for 300yds and 2TD

Packers - losing 7-28 with 3mins left in the 3Q. Watson went 4-4 for 53 yds and a FG - then following a blocked punt 2-5 for 2 yds and a FG - the Texans then punted after a 3 and out - then 6-8 for 75yds and a TD. - Texans recovered the onside kick - Watson threw an 8yd pass and the receiver fumbled - L 20-35. Watson's stats 29-39 for 309yds and 2 TDs

Bears - losing 7-30 at HT - Watson went 6-7 for 54yds, Watson was injured on 3rd&goal from the Bears 1 and was replaced by McCarron who was sacked on the next play. Watson then went 0-1 and was sacked twice, turnover on downs - Watson went 0-1 and was then sacked leading to a punt - Watson went 5-6 for 42 yds and was sacked to run out the clock- L 7-36. Watson's stats 21-30 for 219 and 1TD.

[thebestever6]

So Elway passed on Josh Allen because he was like we got Case Keenum we're good lol

[broncosfan_101]

What to do at QB? 
 

Taylor. Heinicke.

(Mostly joking. Although it looks like he can play some.)

Edited January 10, 2021 by broncosfan_101