3rd Overall Pick - Trey Lance vs Justin Fields (with bonus third poll option)

[J-ALL-DAY]

Weirdly enough, I think the lack of talk of Fields from NFL folks is making me more confident he IS the pick. Silly me for thinking the Niners wouldn't leak this pick six weeks out and it is actually clear what is happening. I believe they still think there is a slight chance the Jets may take him so they are intentionally trying to keep his name out. There is NO way Kyle would let Mike leak the actual QB they are interested in and if he is the one talking, then he is probably part of the smokescreen. And like I said on Sunday, I just simply don't think they made a final decision at the time of the trade. 

While I still slightly edge it to Lance, I am by NO means counting out Fields. Still to me it is between Lance and Fields and it's pretty much a toss up....But Lance has always made the most sense since the time of the trade to me so why would I get off that now? 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Quote

 

While Jed York will never be confused with Dan Snyder, what role might he play in the No. 3 pick? Seems like the guy who writes the checks might want somebody who puts the most butts in seats. — Tim M.

My sense is that York likes to know what’s going on but that he’s not going to meddle in the selection process. The only time an owner would/should get involved with a draft pick is if there were character issues — a checkered past — that would need to be reconciled. York truly believes in Shanahan and Lynch. They have his full backing.

 

For those in the media saying no way York would have allowed the Niners to make this trade without knowing who they wanted? Nope, never bought that. York has pretty much let Shanny/Lynch roll from day one and he's going to continue staying in his lane. 

[GW21]

4 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Weirdly enough, I think the lack of talk of Fields from NFL folks is making me more confident he IS the pick. Silly me for thinking the Niners wouldn't leak this pick six weeks out and it is actually clear what is happening. I believe they still think there is a slight chance the Jets may take him so they are intentionally trying to keep his name out. There is NO way Kyle would let Mike leak the actual QB they are interested in and if he is the one talking, then he is probably part of the smokescreen. And like I said on Sunday, I just simply don't think they made a final decision at the time of the trade. 

While I still slightly edge it to Lance, I am by NO means counting out Fields. Still to me it is between Lance and Fields and it's pretty much a toss up....But Lance has always made the most sense since the time of the trade to me so why would I get off that now? 

I said something similar to the lack of Fields talk a while back. After the pro-day there was buzz, but that died out almost immediately. I wouldn't say I am confident that Fields will be the pick, but I feel better about it than I do it being Mac. I could see the reason that they'd like Lance, but to me Fields has, and continues, to make the most sense to me as a fit. 

[GW21]

4 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

For those in the media saying no way York would have allowed the Niners to make this trade without knowing who they wanted? Nope, never bought that. York has pretty much let Shanny/Lynch roll from day one and he's going to continue staying in his lane. 

It is super refreshing to have an owner that isn't sticking his nose in where it doesn't belong. I feel like our ownership and our FO/Coaching staff has an excellent relationship which is awesome. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, GW21 said:

I said something similar to the lack of Fields talk a while back. After the pro-day there was buzz, but that died out almost immediately. I wouldn't say I am confident that Fields will be the pick, but I feel better about it than I do it being Mac. I could see the reason that they'd like Lance, but to me Fields has, and continues, to make the most sense to me as a fit. 

I had my percentages at 50 - Lance, 40 - Fields, and 10 - Jones. I think something to that range is still fairly accurate.

I slightly prefer Lance but I'm BIG on Fields as well so no worries at all if he is the pick. Lance though at 19 did things the others simply didn't at that age and he has more room to grow. Like he's so good at so many things but needs to make a few tweaks to improve his accuracy....And I think that is possible.

All these stats out there showing he is not accurate...Let's throw all those out from last season, where did Herbert rank among QBs? How about Allen in 2018? You have to scout what the player can become and not what he is at the age of 19 or 20. 

[GW21]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I had my percentages at 50 - Lance, 40 - Fields, and 10 - Jones. I think something to that range is still fairly accurate.

I slightly prefer Lance but I'm BIG on Fields as well so no worries at all if he is the pick. Lance though at 19 did things the others simply didn't at that age and he has more room to grow. Like he's so good at so many things but needs to make a few tweaks to improve his accuracy....And I think that is possible.

All these stats out there showing he is not accurate...Let's throw all those out from last season, where did Herbert rank among QBs? How about Allen in 2018? You have to scout what the player can become and not what he is at the age of 19 or 20. 

I don't have a problem with Lance either. I have been watching his 2019 tape and as I mentioned earlier in the thread, I think he tires to rocket everything in to his receivers. He shows that in certain situations he could put touch on the ball, but he doesn't do it consistently from that tape. Like you said though, he was 19 and I think that he can learn when to make certain kind of throws. I had similar concerns with Josh Allen coming out, so what do I know. 
 

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Not surprising as NFL folks for the most part have been consistent about this.......However agents who Barrows talked to think it is Fields. Who is usually the first to know? Agents themselves....That's why I was saying the Jones leaks were coming from his agent and his team.

Though I think Clark from The Ringer mentioned the leak is possibly the Dolphins...Now that is certainly possible, but why would Shanahan tell them who they wanted at #3? That makes no sense at all. 

[49erurtaza]

This article breaks down why Mac over Fields makes no sense for us.

https://haydenwinks.com/2021/04/23/does-mac-jones-make-sense-over-justin-fields/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Edited April 23, 2021 by 49erurtaza

[NcFinest9erFan]

 

[NcFinest9erFan]

 

[Ftn49]

Has there ever been a pick with a greater disconnect between fandom, professionals and analysts? I can't think of one that came close to this, at minimum not for us.

Seems like professionals think Lance, analysts Mac and fandom Fields

Edited April 23, 2021 by Ftn49

[49ersfan]

51 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Weirdly enough, I think the lack of talk of Fields from NFL folks is making me more confident he IS the pick. Silly me for thinking the Niners wouldn't leak this pick six weeks out and it is actually clear what is happening. I believe they still think there is a slight chance the Jets may take him so they are intentionally trying to keep his name out. There is NO way Kyle would let Mike leak the actual QB they are interested in and if he is the one talking, then he is probably part of the smokescreen. And like I said on Sunday, I just simply don't think they made a final decision at the time of the trade. 

While I still slightly edge it to Lance, I am by NO means counting out Fields. Still to me it is between Lance and Fields and it's pretty much a toss up....But Lance has always made the most sense since the time of the trade to me so why would I get off that now? 

"Play it cool" - Scranganello to Fields at his 2nd pro day 

Edited April 23, 2021 by 49ersfan

[Dr A W Niloc]

1 hour ago, Ftn49 said:

NCAA production does not indicate or dictate NFL production.

If you don't think success at the NCAA level is an [albeit rough] indicator of NFL success try mapping failure.  How do your charts look when you track the 3rd best, the 20th best, or the 111th best college player?

Quote

"We live in available light." - John Stewart

Oh, and the inability to hit moving targets in flight, as suggested in stats and confirmed on tape, is a trait.  That is what stats do.  They inform review, distinguishing anomaly from trend.

Quote

"Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination." - Andrew Lang

 

[GW21]

1 minute ago, Ftn49 said:

Has there ever been a pick with a greater disconnect between fandom, professionals and analysts? I can't think of one that came close to this, at minimum not for us.

I don’t think so, and I think the last year has a lot to do with it. I said last year that this years draft was going to be crazy because of all the restrictions and players opting out and what not: it has not disappointed. This draft has been far more stressful as a fan than I anticipated, but hopefully we can look back upon it fondly when it’s all said and done. I don’t think we’ll see anything like this again.

[Justone2]

4 minutes ago, Ftn49 said:

Has there ever been a pick with a greater disconnect between fandom, professionals and analysts? I can't think of one that came close to this, at minimum not for us.

I think that mainly comes down to the fact that pre draft the talk usually only centers around 1 and 2 and in most cases there is a pretty clear best QB and a best player or at least the best player at their spot. The biggest differences usually you only see when the draft happens but then most local media will focus on their own team and national media shifts to only the big names and there isn't all that much talk after the draft actually happened.