NeptunePenguins Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 the last two years DVOA has never been wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nzd07 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said: Advanced stats are cool but have you tried seeing a play and immediately barfing out a terrible take to fulfill the void of an endlessly growing appetite for immediate gratification ? *Team hires a new coordinator* *Fan watches one press conference* "I don't like this guy, something seems off about him" *One play goes wrong* "See! This guy sucks! Fire him immediately!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Why does any stat matter? Does anything really mean anything? Is all of this truly pointless? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Jakuvious said: Why does any stat matter? Does anything really mean anything? Is all of this truly pointless? None of this is real. Too many people fail to realize it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If the 1991 Eagles are still the best defense then DVOA is awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, SkippyX said: If the 1991 Eagles are still the best defense then DVOA is awesome. Honestly, it's not even that close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) DVOA is a decent stat for offense, but the defensive stat DVDA is an even better predictor of future success Edited January 23, 2022 by Malfatron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awsi Dooger Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Years ago I through it into Excel toward forecasting the playoffs. It was moderate but other foundational angles were superior, namely YPPA Differential. And once again YPPA Differential dominated today. The 49ers were #1 in the league. The two fraud playoff teams were the Titans and Steelers, both at net negative of -0.5. I mentioned that here a couple of weeks ago. The only problem with YPPA Differential is that the league itself is so congested toward good but not great. The 49ers +1.9 is first this season but would have been well down the list in other years. It's like an Grade 2 horse favored to win the Kentucky Derby. You're going to get somewhat arbitrary results. I'm not sure if DVOA is reporting the same thing but I would be very skeptical of any numbers-based approach that wasn't revealing lower caliber teams overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 hours ago, Nzd07 said: Of course. Nothing is going to accurately predict a 16-game season with a one-and-done playoff format. But to say that it "doesn't matter" as the OP stated is kind of silly. It'd be different if it had a really bad track record (multiple teams in the bottom half of DVOA winning the SB, for example). This is indeed the issue. Note the following: https://jaydpauley.medium.com/why-your-favorite-nfl-team-might-win-or-lose-five-more-games-next-year-ff9749145d22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guy Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said: Years ago I through it into Excel toward forecasting the playoffs. It was moderate but other foundational angles were superior, namely YPPA Differential. And once again YPPA Differential dominated today. The 49ers were #1 in the league. The two fraud playoff teams were the Titans and Steelers, both at net negative of -0.5. I mentioned that here a couple of weeks ago. The only problem with YPPA Differential is that the league itself is so congested toward good but not great. The 49ers +1.9 is first this season but would have been well down the list in other years. It's like an Grade 2 horse favored to win the Kentucky Derby. You're going to get somewhat arbitrary results. I'm not sure if DVOA is reporting the same thing but I would be very skeptical of any numbers-based approach that wasn't revealing lower caliber teams overall. DVOA accurately recognized Tennessee this year as the worst #1 seed in NFL history, for example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 DVOA is like any other stat, if it props up your argument, it's excellent, otherwise it doesn't really matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinSting Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 hours ago, SkippyX said: I have no problem with DVOA. I like everything about Football Outsiders. I don't think any stat has strong predictive value. Its one of the reasons the NFL is so great. Plus the football isn't round so it bounces in an unpredictable way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 hours ago, Forge said: It was actually me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 DVOA is a fantastic stat at isolating different units on their quality. It's issue is that it cannot account for symbiotic a football game is and how different units effect others. An amazing DVOA defense can be let down by it's offense. That's why I always so that DVOA is fantastic at telling you if a unit is good, it's mediocre at being a predicative stat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 DVOA was much higher on the Bucs last year than their record, seeding and most fans and pundits. Having said that, I don't view it as predictive. I do view it as a bigger piece to the resume (how good a team is based on what they've done) than their W/L record. Winning and losing games is fluky. Always has been. The Niners needed two pretty rare special teams plays to win yesterday. The Packers beat them in SF this year, had a better record and have a more talented team (opinion there). I do not think the Niners are a better football team than the Packers this morning. And ironically, DVOA is higher on the Niners than I am. The reason that I like DVOA and PFF is because they at least came up with a formula of sorts. This at least puts players and teams on a fairly level playing field and (in theory) removes biases. Fans are wholly incapable of that. So using the "eye test" is going to be heavily tainted in most cases for that reason. So it's easy to trust a combination of stats/record/PFF/DVOA- and then toss in SRS from Pro Football Reference as well - along with the eye test - as opposed to just the eye test. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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