Christian Watson this, Christian Watson that....dude's done NOTHING, literally NOTHING.

[vegas492]

16 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

No takes here. 

Just a video of every throw counted as a "contested catch" here. 

Bonus video at the end of every ball thrown Watson's way against Pittsburgh. 

Judge for yourself if the oft-repeated stat is bullsh*t or not.

Must have been a lot of work for you to put this together, I want to thank you for all that work!

I'm all of one play deep into it and can't wait to see more.

We use motion to identify man on man.  Watson is in the slot and has a lot of green to work with as he is off the LOS.

He runs what I can only describe as the worst out in history.  He runs off the line at an angle upfield, not a straight line.  Then instead of cutting on a 90 degree angle, he opens it upfield some.  He showed no juke at the top of the route to influence the defender.  He just ran a poor route from the snap.

He had to drift about 2-3 yards to the boundary when running to the top of his route.  And after watching it about 5 more times, maybe his out wasn't awful as I first thought.  But he didn't work back to the ball at all.

This is going to be an interesting film study, if I have time to look at much more.

Again, thank you for your time to put this together.

[Leader]

9 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

yeah, i think the correct take is that Watson has been more or less "fine". He's still what he is. The results look even worse because MLF and Love can't figure out how to use him right. And that combined with occasional bad deep balls from Love and occasional bad effort from Watson has resulted in piss poor overall results.

It's a combination of a lot of things. But CW is still a powerful weapon.

Love's gotta be better. CW's gotta be better. The offensive scheme's gotta be better.
It's the definition of a work in progress.

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Leader

[Packerraymond]

29 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

No takes here. 

Just a video of every throw counted as a "contested catch" here. 

Bonus video at the end of every ball thrown Watson's way against Pittsburgh. 

Judge for yourself if the oft-repeated stat is bullsh*t or not.

I see equal parts Watson and Love in there. Love needs to deliver better balls, Watson needs to fight for his QB when the throw is not perfect but catchable. The INTs on some of those are unacceptable results from Watson though. Where Love puts the ball should be a catch for him or incomplete, he lets the DB get in between him and the ball because he's out there trying to shoot fadeaway jumpers when he goes up for a catch.

[packfanfb]

54 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

No takes here. 

Just a video of every throw counted as a "contested catch" here. 

Bonus video at the end of every ball thrown Watson's way against Pittsburgh. 

Judge for yourself if the oft-repeated stat is bullsh*t or not.

My quick assessment (excluding Pitt game):

Play 1 (Det): Lazy/Bad route by Watson. Knows the defender is close and yet drifts up field on the out instead of attacking back to the ball. Tight coverage anyways, but the route is the difference between 5-6 yard gain and an incompletion.

Play 2 (LV): Pretty damn good ball from Love here. Watson fails to track it and barely even touches the ball, let alone “drops it.” Honestly, this should have been a pretty easy completion. Watson has the size advantage and inside leverage on a small CB who really does a pretty poor job of even contesting Watson on the throw. Just bad from 9.

Play 3 (LV INT): This one falls more on Love. While again, it’s a veryyyy lazy route by Watson who doesn’t attack the ball on a stop/comeback which is route running 101, here, Love forced the ball into a throw that had a low probability for a completion because Peters was immediately driving on the ball once Watson reached the top of his route. Poor decision by Love on this one and Watson didn’t do much to help.

Play 4 (LV): Hard to tell who to assign blame on this one. Love’s ball is off-target and more towards the MOF. Defender has inside leverage so either Love missed the throw short and inside or was expecting Watson to run the route like that. Assuming Watson is where he should be, Love just missed this one. Nevertheless, Watson wasn’t really “open” either way and at best, would have been another contested catch opportunity against the safety in coverage.

Play 5 (LV INT): A lot going on here. First, the ball from Love is late, however, hard to tell without the All-22 here whether Love had the chance to get it out earlier because he has to escape the pocket due to pressure. That certainly messed up the timing of this play. By the time he throws it, the CB is in good position, however, from there, Watson (per usual) treats this jump ball like he’s Jordan on a fade-away jumper. He does this pretty consistently where he falls away from the pass instead of working back towards it and using his size/body position to high point the ball. Sure, it would have been a “Moss-like” catch, but his effort is so poor, instead it’s a pretty easy INT and game over.

Play 6 (Den): Another rounded-off route (can pretty much say this on every route Watson runs), however, this play is virtually all on 10. Love was late on the throw and then threw it behind him.

Play 7 (MN): This was actually a better effort by Watson to go up for the ball and pretty decent ball from Love. This play was merely good defense by No. 5. Throw was fine, effort by Watson was fine, just better defense on a low percentage play.

Play 8 (MN): Biggest problem I have this play is just the decision by Love. No pressure, no real reason to force this ball. Watson is covered, period. At this point, it’s a fight for the ball and Watson simply loses the fight as he often does. This ball should go elsewhere.

Play 9 (MN): Again a questionable decision by Love throwing into double coverage but he was getting some pressure on the play. Here, Watson actually does a good job attacking the ball and high pointing it…he just flat out drops it in the endzone. Not the best decision by Love, but actually a good ball that should have been caught. These are the plays Watson HAS to make to help out his QB.

Edited November 15, 2023 by packfanfb

[CWood21]

20 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I see equal parts Watson and Love in there. Love needs to deliver better balls, Watson needs to fight for his QB when the throw is not perfect but catchable. The INTs on some of those are unacceptable results from Watson though. Where Love puts the ball should be a catch for him or incomplete, he lets the DB get in between him and the ball because he's out there trying to shoot fadeaway jumpers when he goes up for a catch.

This.  You can see when Love's mechanics break down (the INT to Watson in the end zone against Las Vegas is a good example) that his arm strength doesn't seem to carry like it does when he throws with his feet underneath him.  In that sense, Love doesn't have that same arm talent that guys like Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes has.  He's got the ability to throw the deep ball, but the consistency isn't there.  As for Watson, he just hasn't shown the ability to win those 50/50 balls.  Most of those contested catches involve a DB out-muscling him to the ball.  The Brian Branch PD was a great play by Branch, and Watson doesn't use his body to shield the defender from the ball.  Same thing with that PD the turned into a INT in the Las Vegas game.  He's just not a physical receiver.  You throw a 50/50 ball to either Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams, you're pretty confident that Nelson/Adams comes down with the ball.  I think it's far more likely that the DB gets their hand on the ball.

[HokieHigh]

42 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Must have been a lot of work for you to put this together, I want to thank you for all that work!

I'm all of one play deep into it and can't wait to see more.

We use motion to identify man on man.  Watson is in the slot and has a lot of green to work with as he is off the LOS.

He runs what I can only describe as the worst out in history.  He runs off the line at an angle upfield, not a straight line.  Then instead of cutting on a 90 degree angle, he opens it upfield some.  He showed no juke at the top of the route to influence the defender.  He just ran a poor route from the snap.

He had to drift about 2-3 yards to the boundary when running to the top of his route.  And after watching it about 5 more times, maybe his out wasn't awful as I first thought.  But he didn't work back to the ball at all.

This is going to be an interesting film study, if I have time to look at much more.

Again, thank you for your time to put this together.

On the deep ball against the raiders he clearly tried to slow down and block out the defender. He just didnt get back up to speed with the right timing to get back to the ball.

 

 

[vegas492]

5 minutes ago, HokieHigh said:

On the deep ball against the raiders he clearly tried to slow down and block out the defender. He just didnt get back up to speed with the right timing to get back to the ball.

 

 

I'm only one play into that video.  Doubtful I'll have much more time today to look at it.

But what you said sounds about right.

Watson is going to be a work in progress right up until the last 8 games or so of his rookie deal.  

That is my prediction.  He's just so raw and has no real mentor to lean on in that WR room.  It's just going to take him longer.

I have no doubt that he will be a decoy or deep weapon, even now.  But guys like Wicks, Reed and Doubs are going to be ahead of him in regards to being an NFL receiver and not just a freak athlete.

But, if Watson ever does "get it".  Look out.

[squire12]

59 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Meanwhile, look at Wicks vs. Doubs...

I'd like to see just one game this year where Wicks is treated as the No. 1 guy and see what happens. 

would be interesting to see if the Watson vs Wicks is CB 1/2 vs CB 3/4 coverage?

[NFLGURU]

Watson needs to be a 3rd or 4th WR.  He doesn't have the ability to consistently make catches.  He needs to be the guy who comes in and has to be accounted for with the top 2 wrs getting the work.  Occasionally, you go to him to keep defenses honest, but he's not a go to guy by any stretch.  We need a top go to guy to go with Doubs and Reed with Watson being the field stretcher.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, NFLGURU said:

Watson needs to be a 3rd or 4th WR.  He doesn't have the ability to consistently make catches.  He needs to be the guy who comes in and has to be accounted for with the top 2 wrs getting the work.  Occasionally, you go to him to keep defenses honest, but he's not a go to guy by any stretch.  We need a top go to guy to go with Doubs and Reed with Watson being the field stretcher.

I really can't figure out how to label this WR corp right now.  1-5.  And it doesn't really matter to me.

Watson has elite ability with his speed.  Any good OC or HC should be figure out ways to single him up and get him running away from the defense.  Crossers, and I would love him in those mid crossers.  He needs to be more than just a "go route" kind of kid because he tracks the ball for sh-- and he's even worse when having to jump to get a ball.

But there should be 5-8 times a game where we scheme him to fly across the field into space.

The fact that we haven't seen this yet is very confusing.

[ChaRisMa]

Doubs is possession chain mover. Watson is speed threat. Reed is a combination. Wicks is big target.

Doubs = Adams, Watson = MVS, Reed = Cobb, Wicks = Lazard.

MVS would look exactly like Watson right now. Adams would be complaining like he is in Oakland, Cobb would be on IR, and Lazard would continue to quietly be inconsistent. 
 

Reed over Cobb all day.

[incognito_man]

28 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Doubs is possession chain mover. Watson is speed threat. Reed is a combination. Wicks is big target.

Doubs = Adams, Watson = MVS, Reed = Cobb, Wicks = Lazard.

MVS would look exactly like Watson right now. Adams would be complaining like he is in Oakland, Cobb would be on IR, and Lazard would continue to quietly be inconsistent. 
 

Reed over Cobb all day.

Wicks is more like Adams than Doubs.

Reed is absolutely nothing like Cobb at all.

Watson and MVS are also really nothing alike.

We have no body like Lazard on the team currently.

[StatKing]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:12 AM, ReasonablySober said:

No takes here. 

Just a video of every throw counted as a "contested catch" here. 

Bonus video at the end of every ball thrown Watson's way against Pittsburgh. 

Judge for yourself if the oft-repeated stat is bullsh*t or not.

Love just spraying the ball all over. Some of those misses are comically bad.

Edited November 17, 2023 by StatKing

[MantyWrestler]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:43 AM, Packerraymond said:

I see equal parts Watson and Love in there. Love needs to deliver better balls, Watson needs to fight for his QB when the throw is not perfect but catchable. The INTs on some of those are unacceptable results from Watson though. Where Love puts the ball should be a catch for him or incomplete, he lets the DB get in between him and the ball because he's out there trying to shoot fadeaway jumpers when he goes up for a catch.

He’s soft as ****!  Doesn’t fight for the ball and gets pushed around all day downfield. 

[Lodestar]