Random Packer News & Notes

[MantyWrestler]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

Ya know that list doesn't include all our first rounders, right?

Hence the title “Day 2 Picks”

[Green19]

26 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

But it also doesn't include rounds 3 (or 4?) - 7 either. It's just day 2 of the draft.

It’s commenting on how GB has been objectively bad in rounds 2 and 3. When typically these should be a higher hit rate.

it’s only slightly being offset with how well GB has been in rounds 4 and 5.

I have been saying for years just trade the 3rd to move up in round 2. They likely hit more on bigger talent.

I get the strategy of volume over what appears as quality. But at this point volume isn’t working… so change it up.

[Green19]

On 2/11/2023 at 7:35 PM, hitnhope said:

Again, the meat of the post goes over your head.

The simple fact is that even though the Packers have invested a ton of draft resources on the defense the picks haven't panned out as needed.  We've let the offensive talent slide trying to get the defense good enough.  There haven't been enough draft hits to keep things going.

And yes, coaching matters.  The Packers leadership has been too slow to react to shortcomings with the coaching staff. 

The issue with defense is injuries. GB lost Gary, Stokes, and Campbell for large chunks of the season.

That’s 30% of you’re starting defense.

Add to that the decline of Amos and Savage… we are up to almost 50%.

And the bench isn’t that deep on talent to make up that much. But most teams aren’t that deep in general either. This is why most view DC as the ultimate hedge for that bet. When that DC has all the talent, the defense is top 3 and when injuries hit or certain players level drop… scheme and defensive knowledge makes it up.

Ultimately the issue for GB is the guys that get paid the most were arguably some of the worse players on the team (in relation to their salaries; think Rodgers… not bad if you look at league wide results, but given his salary he might as well be Sam Darnold). You are never going to win like that.

[R T]

The strike rate for Gutes in the second round is probably above average. He has had 5 picks in that round and come away with Jenkins (home run), Watson (chance to be a home run), Dillon (solid double), Myers (needs to improve) and Jackson (a bust who didn't look like it when he fell to them). People expecting better returns than that probably don't understand the draft and its averages. 

[Striker]

2 hours ago, pgwingman said:

 

Someone in this forum suggested that during the last few years of TT's reign, he faced many health problems. I wonder what level of influence Gute had over the picks before being promoted in 2018. 

Look at the hits:

Fackrell, Burks - Not retained, but bounced around a few more years

Jenkins - home run hit

Dillion - "hit", but is still the 2nd RB on the depth chart as a second round pick, so not really a home run hit

Myers - Below average starter being outshined by Creed Humphrey (PFF's No. 1 ranked Center), taken right after him.

Watson - hit, but still early

I've been a staunch Gute defender for a while, but I'll admit this list gives me pause. One home run (two if you count Watson) in 6 years is not good enough for a draft and develop team.

Eliot Wolf and Alonzo Highsmith also were part of that group and Wolf interviewed for the GM job. I’d imagine they all had some input but who knows if any of them had outsized influence compared to the others.

[ThatJerkDave]

15 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

But it also doesn't include rounds 3 (or 4?) - 7 either. It's just day 2 of the draft.

I think that is just rounds 2 and 3.

 

The exercise now, if anyone wants to do it... find the star players between our 2nd round pick and 4th round pick and see how many hits there actually are.  

I will do 2016 because it has a miss with Spriggs, and a minor hit with Fackrell.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/draft.htm

I will just list the players between the two picks that were better DrAV by pfr, so I am not making any other judgement.  That is the value provided to the team that drafted the player.  There are guys that have higher overall values than listed and a couple that are higher than Spriggs, but not with their first team.  Before really doing this, I suspect there will be quite a few better than Spriggs, and not too many between Fackrell and Blake Martinez. 

Jason Spriggs pick 48 DrAV 8.  I will notate the player's pick and DrAV as such:  (pick.DrAV)

Jarran Reed DT (49.28), Nick Martin G (50.27), Deion Jones RB (52.39), *MacKenzie Alexander CB (54.8), Tyler Boyd WR  (55.42), Cody Whitehair G (56.40), Sean Davis CB (58.18), Vonn Bell S (61.13), James Bradbury CB (62.16), Adam Gostis DT (63.15), Kevin Byard S (64.51), Maliek Collins DT (67.25), Yannick Ngakoue DE (69.32), Kenyan Drake RB (73.15), Daryl Worley CB (77.11), Joe Thuney G (78.39), Isaac Seumalo G (79.25), Adolphus Washington DT (80.9), Austin Hooper TE (81.18), Le'Raven Clark T (82.10), Jordan Jenkins OLB (83.28), Kendall Fuller CB (84.22), Nick Vigil ILB (87.17)

Kyler Fackrell OLB (88.9), Javon Hargrave DT (89.23), Graham Glasgow C (95.25), Justin Simmons S (98.50), Joe Schobert OLB (99.25), Tavon Young CB (104.14), *BJ Goodson OLB (109.9), Tyler Higbee TE (110.25), Nick Kwaitkowski ILB (113.14), De'Vondre Campbell OLB (115.20), David Onyemata DT (120.33), Andrew Billings NT (122.15), *Antonio Morrison ILB (125.9), DeMarcus Robinson WR (126.14), Blake Martinez ILB (131.29)

I underlined guys that became Packers just for giggles.

The two best players selected were Safeties.  At the time, we had HaHa coming into his third season and making the ProBowl in 2016.  And Morgan Burnett coming into his sixth season, playing as steady as ever with a bunch of tackles and a couple ints.  There are some good OL there, but we had a line of: Bakhtiari-Taylor-Linsley-Lang-Bulaga, all in their 20s, why we took Spriggs is a good question. The biggest holes on the 2016 roster were CB, RB and TE.  Would you guys have been happy at the time with Kendall Fuller and Tyler Higbee? Or Deion Jones and Tavon Young?

 

What I learned:

-We got the 13th best player in the draft (by DrAV) at 27 in Kenny Clark. Dean Lowry was number 22, and Blake Martinez was number 30.  That is one good value, and two very good values.  Jarran Reed was the 32nd best value.  The Chiefs, Cowboys, and Titans got a lot of value from their classes.

-Jason Spriggs was rated a lot higher than I thought he would have been.  He was rated nearly equal to Fackrell, which I thought would be an absurd statement before doing this exercise.  I overrated Fackrell.

-Using this metric definitely has flaws.  For instance, both Jared Goff and Carson Wentz have higher career AV (and drafted AV, I think) than Kenny Clark.  To me that is a million percent incorrect.  But it is still probably more objective than me picking the guys that I think are better than Spriggs, because that would have been a long list.  

-Building a roster is a lot more difficult than we give them credit for.  The best players in this exercise were safeties.  If we didn't know how the story ends with HaHa, there is probably a riot here if we take a safety in the second or third round in 2016.  

 

[ThatJerkDave]

So, let's step back and ask who hits in round 3, and why?

Is it a part of the draft where our department doesn't rate players from 70-110 correctly? 

Or is it just a small enough sample size that it is really meaningless? 

Would you rather trade our third to move up, or get more shots in round 4 or 5?

[TransientTexan]

1 hour ago, pgwingman said:

 

Someone in this forum suggested that during the last few years of TT's reign, he faced many health problems. I wonder what level of influence Gute had over the picks before being promoted in 2018. 

Look at the hits:

Fackrell, Burks - Not retained, but bounced around a few more years

Jenkins - home run hit

Dillion - "hit", but is still the 2nd RB on the depth chart as a second round pick, so not really a home run hit

Myers - Below average starter being outshined by Creed Humphrey (PFF's No. 1 ranked Center), taken right after him.

Watson - hit, but still early

I've been a staunch Gute defender for a while, but I'll admit this list gives me pause. One home run (two if you count Watson) in 6 years is not good enough for a draft and develop team.

Their hit rate in R2 is pretty typical of R2 picks. Odds say ~50% chance of getting a consistent starter. Jenkins, Watson, & Meyers technically check the box, and Dillon is probably starter-caliber even if not starter.

The main struggles are in R3, where typical odds in the league are that 25-30% become a consistent starter. GB is technically 0-fer in that stretch, though I agree that Fackrell was a very solid player.

But avg and worse-than-average obviously leaves room for improvement. However, the whole premise seems a bit cherry-picky. Their phenomenal success in R4 (50+%) makes up for alot of the R3 problems. In fact, if you just pretended that their R4 picks had been taken in R3 and vice-versa, ppl probably wouldn’t complain. They’ve also done decently in R1. 

 

[Refugee]

23 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I think that is just rounds 2 and 3.

 

The exercise now, if anyone wants to do it... find the star players between our 2nd round pick and 4th round pick and see how many hits there actually are.  

I will do 2016 because it has a miss with Spriggs, and a minor hit with Fackrell.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/draft.htm

I will just list the players between the two picks that were better DrAV by pfr, so I am not making any other judgement.  That is the value provided to the team that drafted the player.  There are guys that have higher overall values than listed and a couple that are higher than Spriggs, but not with their first team.  Before really doing this, I suspect there will be quite a few better than Spriggs, and not too many between Fackrell and Blake Martinez. 

Jason Spriggs pick 48 DrAV 8.  I will notate the player's pick and DrAV as such:  (pick.DrAV)

Jarran Reed DT (49.28), Nick Martin G (50.27), Deion Jones RB (52.39), *MacKenzie Alexander CB (54.8), Tyler Boyd WR  (55.42), Cody Whitehair G (56.40), Sean Davis CB (58.18), Vonn Bell S (61.13), James Bradbury CB (62.16), Adam Gostis DT (63.15), Kevin Byard S (64.51), Maliek Collins DT (67.25), Yannick Ngakoue DE (69.32), Kenyan Drake RB (73.15), Daryl Worley CB (77.11), Joe Thuney G (78.39), Isaac Seumalo G (79.25), Adolphus Washington DT (80.9), Austin Hooper TE (81.18), Le'Raven Clark T (82.10), Jordan Jenkins OLB (83.28), Kendall Fuller CB (84.22), Nick Vigil ILB (87.17)

Kyler Fackrell OLB (88.9), Javon Hargrave DT (89.23), Graham Glasgow C (95.25), Justin Simmons S (98.50), Joe Schobert OLB (99.25), Tavon Young CB (104.14), *BJ Goodson OLB (109.9), Tyler Higbee TE (110.25), Nick Kwaitkowski ILB (113.14), De'Vondre Campbell OLB (115.20), David Onyemata DT (120.33), Andrew Billings NT (122.15), *Antonio Morrison ILB (125.9), DeMarcus Robinson WR (126.14), Blake Martinez ILB (131.29)

I underlined guys that became Packers just for giggles.

The two best players selected were Safeties.  At the time, we had HaHa coming into his third season and making the ProBowl in 2016.  And Morgan Burnett coming into his sixth season, playing as steady as ever with a bunch of tackles and a couple ints.  There are some good OL there, but we had a line of: Bakhtiari-Taylor-Linsley-Lang-Bulaga, all in their 20s, why we took Spriggs is a good question. The biggest holes on the 2016 roster were CB, RB and TE.  Would you guys have been happy at the time with Kendall Fuller and Tyler Higbee? Or Deion Jones and Tavon Young?

 

What I learned:

-We got the 13th best player in the draft (by DrAV) at 27 in Kenny Clark. Dean Lowry was number 22, and Blake Martinez was number 30.  That is one good value, and two very good values.  Jarran Reed was the 32nd best value.  The Chiefs, Cowboys, and Titans got a lot of value from their classes.

-Jason Spriggs was rated a lot higher than I thought he would have been.  He was rated nearly equal to Fackrell, which I thought would be an absurd statement before doing this exercise.  I overrated Fackrell.

-Using this metric definitely has flaws.  For instance, both Jared Goff and Carson Wentz have higher career AV (and drafted AV, I think) than Kenny Clark.  To me that is a million percent incorrect.  But it is still probably more objective than me picking the guys that I think are better than Spriggs, because that would have been a long list.  

-Building a roster is a lot more difficult than we give them credit for.  The best players in this exercise were safeties.  If we didn't know how the story ends with HaHa, there is probably a riot here if we take a safety in the second or third round in 2016.  

 

All this reminded me of was that we tried to corner the market on ILBs from that draft, one way or another. Just needed Joe the Show to shoot the moon and I am upset we couldn’t pull it off. Maybe there’s still time. 

[Green19]

6 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

So, let's step back and ask who hits in round 3, and why?

Is it a part of the draft where our department doesn't rate players from 70-110 correctly? 

Or is it just a small enough sample size that it is really meaningless? 

Would you rather trade our third to move up, or get more shots in round 4 or 5?

Honestly I think it comes down to positions teams are good at scouting and developing. Like GB is clearly good at scouting and developing Oline. It’s why I think most feel Sean will break the bad 3rd rounder luck.

Under Ted GB was great at WR and OL.

Gute looks like he might be pretty good at CB. Maybe even Edge.

I think the problem is value. The positions they tend to be good at haven’t really been there in the 3rd… so they draft LB or a slot WR etc.

 

[Pugger]

Another factor that could be in play is most of the time we were drafting near the end of every round.  

[incognito_man]

11 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

Hence the title “Day 2 Picks”

Yes. I was aware. I asked the question because the other poster did not seem aware so I was pointing it out.

[pgwingman]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

Another factor that could be in play is most of the time we were drafting near the end of every round.  

Yeah that certainly weighs in

35 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Yes. I was aware. I asked the question because the other poster did not seem aware so I was pointing it out.

Yeah I was aware, but this time of year I always try to identify what needs improved the most to get the Packers to the Super Bowl. I'd argue that this front office is:

• Efficient with the salary cap (spends too much, but they are arguably efficient with the dollars spent)
• Does well with free agent scouting. Very few busts there.
• Does good but not great with late round draft picks
• Does pretty good with UDFA development
• Does good with Day 1 picks (if you remove Love since he's incomplete)
• But is below average on Day 2 picks. 

In my mind, the jump from 8-9 to 12-5 will come when the Day 2 picks start making major improvements.

[Leader]

Justis Mosqueda -  The Packers are expected to have five 7th round picks in the 2023 draft.

Only one team has made more 7th round picks since Brian Gutekunst took over as GM.

Don't be surprised if they keep those picks.

• Aaron Nagler -   Gonna need the cheap labor.

[AlexGreen#20]

11 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

Their hit rate in R2 is pretty typical of R2 picks. Odds say ~50% chance of getting a consistent starter. Jenkins, Watson, & Meyers technically check the box, and Dillon is probably starter-caliber even if not starter.

The main struggles are in R3, where typical odds in the league are that 25-30% become a consistent starter. GB is technically 0-fer in that stretch, though I agree that Fackrell was a very solid player.

But avg and worse-than-average obviously leaves room for improvement. However, the whole premise seems a bit cherry-picky. Their phenomenal success in R4 (50+%) makes up for alot of the R3 problems. In fact, if you just pretended that their R4 picks had been taken in R3 and vice-versa, ppl probably wouldn’t complain. They’ve also done decently in R1. 

 

I'm going to need to see your math on that R2 hit rate. The R1 hit rate is about 50%. 

R2 has historically been about 25%