The 2018 Kirk Cousins Megathread

[whitehops]

14 minutes ago, sledgehammer said:

Coming at this from another angle ... I don't think Kirk has the playing style to choke badly. He's not a creative player, he's kind of robotic in the way he plays every play, like an algorithm, following if (then) statements. He's a perfect system player, but not much of an improviser. 

he can choke badly, if he's consistently put in a position where he has to improvise. the main one being if pressure comes before his internal clock goes off, or if coverage holds up on his first read or two. i have no idea how to quantify/verify this, but i feel like he goes through his reads slower than the best QBs which is a problem when there's constant pressure. he just looks so helpless when a play breaks down, like it's a struggle just to throw it away. 

 

 

[Krauser]

PFF grades for QBs, wildcard round (10+ dropbacks):

82.5 Cousins
78.3 Watson
76.7 Wilson
62.5 Brees
61.2 Allen
54.5 Brady
52.8 McCown
45.5 Tannehill

[Worm Guts]

3 hours ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Ahhh the myth of the clutch gene.

I don’t know that the idea people handle pressure differently is myth. In fact I know it’s not.

Of course my point isn’t whether Kirk can handle stressful situations, it’s that he hasn’t played well in important games against good opponents (until yesterday). 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Worm Guts

[Krauser]

53 minutes ago, Worm Guts said:

Of course my point isn’t whether Kirk can handle stressful situations, it’s that he hasn’t played well in important games against good opponents (until yesterday). 

Again, that just isn’t true.

Cousins’ highest graded game last year (93.6) was at Lambeau. Led a comeback from down 3 scores. If Carlson hadn’t missed 2 FGs in OT, they win it.

His next highest graded game of 2018 was home to the Saints (89.0), in primetime. Thielen fumbled, and Diggs stopped his route leading to a pick six. The OL was terrible and the defense couldn’t get off the field. They lost to the eventual NFC top seed and DVOA #1 team,, but not because of Cousins.

His 4th highest game of last year was at the Rams (84.9). He put up 38 points on the eventual NFC champions, on the road, in primetime. But McVay tore apart Zimmer’s cover 3 scheme and the defense got obliterated, leading to another loss.

This year, his best graded game (93.0) was against the Eagles, a division winner who came into the game with a winning record, finished the season with a winning record, and arguably would’ve won a playoff game on Sunday if Wentz hadn’t gotten hurt. The Vikings beat Philadelphia by 18, handing them their 2nd biggest loss of the year.

He also played really well on the road against a Lions defense that hadn’t quit yet (beating a team by 12 that the Chiefs with Mahomes had only beaten by 7), and against a Chargers team with a very good pass defense (which held the Chiefs under 200 passing yards twice, and embarrassed the Packers).

And now this weekend he had the highest graded game by any of the starting QBs in the wildcard round, on the road on national TV against a very good defense, winning the game with his arm in overtime.

Yes, Cousins has also had some mediocre games, and a few terrible ones. And he’s had more trouble with stronger defenses. But basically every QB is like that, at least to some extent.

[wcblack34]

I think that this game probably got Cousins his extension before the draft. I think he is likely our QB for the next four years. Frankly, I think it's the only reasonable thing to do at this point. He had a pro-bowl caliber season, even though, for stretches, he was without 2 of his biggest playmakers and had an OL that was mediocre on its best days. To top it off, he won a playoff game on the road, as a huge underdog, and he did it with his arm and poise. There have been enough flashes of "Good Kirk" this year to be encouraged that he can lead the team to success. Will he win a Super Bowl? Maybe not, but only one team wins every year. 

My only hope is that he's happy with the money he has already made and gives us some flexibility to help put a better team around him. Because I still believe he needs to be surrounded by excellent players to elevate his play.

 

[JDBrocks]

7 hours ago, wcblack34 said:

I think that this game probably got Cousins his extension before the draft. I think he is likely our QB for the next four years. Frankly, I think it's the only reasonable thing to do at this point. He had a pro-bowl caliber season, even though, for stretches, he was without 2 of his biggest playmakers and had an OL that was mediocre on its best days. To top it off, he won a playoff game on the road, as a huge underdog, and he did it with his arm and poise. There have been enough flashes of "Good Kirk" this year to be encouraged that he can lead the team to success. Will he win a Super Bowl? Maybe not, but only one team wins every year. 

My only hope is that he's happy with the money he has already made and gives us some flexibility to help put a better team around him. Because I still believe he needs to be surrounded by excellent players to elevate his play.

 

I would agree with this. I think they should resign him, but no more fully guaranteed contract stuff. If he wants the team to commit to him he needs to give the team some ability to put him in a better position.

[PrplChilPill]

15 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I would agree with this. I think they should resign him, but no more fully guaranteed contract stuff. If he wants the team to commit to him he needs to give the team some ability to put him in a better position.

The fully guaranteed part is a red herring. He wasn't getting cut in three years. Zero chance. Probably true for another three to five years also. 

[Worm Guts]

9 hours ago, Krauser said:

Again, that just isn’t true.

Cousins’ highest graded game last year (93.6) was at Lambeau. Led a comeback from down 3 scores. If Carlson hadn’t missed 2 FGs in OT, they win it.

His next highest graded game of 2018 was home to the Saints (89.0), in primetime. Thielen fumbled, and Diggs stopped his route leading to a pick six. The OL was terrible and the defense couldn’t get off the field. They lost to the eventual NFC top seed and DVOA #1 team,, but not because of Cousins.

His 4th highest game of last year was at the Rams (84.9). He put up 38 points on the eventual NFC champions, on the road, in primetime. But McVay tore apart Zimmer’s cover 3 scheme and the defense got obliterated, leading to another loss.

This year, his best graded game (93.0) was against the Eagles, a division winner who came into the game with a winning record, finished the season with a winning record, and arguably would’ve won a playoff game on Sunday if Wentz hadn’t gotten hurt. The Vikings beat Philadelphia by 18, handing them their 2nd biggest loss of the year.

He also played really well on the road against a Lions defense that hadn’t quit yet (beating a team by 12 that the Chiefs with Mahomes had only beaten by 7), and against a Chargers team with a very good pass defense (which held the Chiefs under 200 passing yards twice, and embarrassed the Packers).

And now this weekend he had the highest graded game by any of the starting QBs in the wildcard round, on the road on national TV against a very good defense, winning the game with his arm in overtime.

Yes, Cousins has also had some mediocre games, and a few terrible ones. And he’s had more trouble with stronger defenses. But basically every QB is like that, at least to some extent.

Every game you mentioned happened in the first half of the season. Last years Packers team wasn't good. Last years Saints game wasn't particularly close in the 2nd half,.  I'm not going to give you games against 3 and 5 win teams. Basically, we had 1 game where Cousins played well against a winning team and won.

Last week, we finally got a meaningful win against a good team.  Hopefully next week get another.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Worm Guts

[Krauser]

31 minutes ago, Worm Guts said:

Every game you mentioned happened in the first half of the season. Last years Packers team wasn't good. Last years Saints game wasn't particularly close in the 2nd half,.  I'm not going to give you games against 3 and 5 win teams. Basically, we had 1 game where Cousins played well against a winning team and won.

You didn't say "played well against a winning team and won", you said "played well in important games against good opponents". 

Nor were there limits on what week it was, or what quarter of the game it was, or whatever other goalpost-moving you want to do now. 

The Rams game on TNF last year was important. It was a primetime game on the road against a team that went to the playoffs the year before and the Super Bowl that year. Cousins played great, and lost from no fault of his own. 

The Eagles game this year was important. They've been to the playoffs 3 times in a row now. They were relatively healthy at the time. They were a winning team coming into the game, and for the rest of the year, and had the same record as the Vikings (9-6) for the season outside of that head-to-head matchup. Cousins played great, and the Vikings stomped them. Even by your standards, that's "Cousins played well against a winning team and won". 

[JDBrocks]

1 hour ago, PrplChilPill said:

The fully guaranteed part is a red herring. He wasn't getting cut in three years. Zero chance. Probably true for another three to five years also. 

It was less about him getting cut and more about the inflexibility in the contract. While he wasn't going to be cut, he also wasn't going to restructure to help the Vikings balance the cap and jeopardize his guarantees.

[vikesfan89]

1 hour ago, JDBrocks said:

I would agree with this. I think they should resign him, but no more fully guaranteed contract stuff. If he wants the team to commit to him he needs to give the team some ability to put him in a better position.

Wouldn't more guaranteed at a lower rate be better if the goal is to have more money available for other players?

[JDBrocks]

7 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

Wouldn't more guaranteed at a lower rate be better if the goal is to have more money available for other players?

I'm not sure how you guarantee more money at a lower rate? Fully guaranteed contracts are inflexible.

[Cearbhall]

15 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

Wouldn't more guaranteed at a lower rate be better if the goal is to have more money available for other players?

Could be, but not necessarily. A longer term allows more options for how the money is allocated against the cap.

I don't think Kirk's decision had anything to do with any of that though. He has a very good agent that is putting Kirk in position to earn as much money as possible. Kirk's agent insisted on the three year deal because he was looking towards the expiration of the CBA and speculating on a greatly increased salary cap in the new CBA. He wanted to be in a position for Kirk to reap the rewards. He probably still does and likely will not have Kirk sign anything this offseason that isn't a great deal for Kirk. i do not expect a contract extension with team friendly features. Kirk Cousins is not Tom Brady. He is about the bottom line, not how the mantle looks.

[Cearbhall]

1 minute ago, JDBrocks said:

I'm not sure how you guarantee more money at a lower rate? Fully guaranteed contracts are inflexible.

I believe what he is referring to is by having it 100% fully guaranteed it took less total dollars to get Kirk signed. The team could have bought the flexibility of not having some if it guaranteed by including more total dollars. Perhaps it would have taken $90M over the first three years to get Kirk to sign a contract that only had $75M guaranteed rather than getting him to sign for $84M with it all guaranteed. He can correct me if that is not what he means. It is how I interpreted it.

[Worm Guts]

37 minutes ago, Krauser said:

You didn't say "played well against a winning team and won", you said "played well in important games against good opponents". 

Nor were there limits on what week it was, or what quarter of the game it was, or whatever other goalpost-moving you want to do now. 

The Rams game on TNF last year was important. It was a primetime game on the road against a team that went to the playoffs the year before and the Super Bowl that year. Cousins played great, and lost from no fault of his own. 

The Eagles game this year was important. They've been to the playoffs 3 times in a row now. They were relatively healthy at the time. They were a winning team coming into the game, and for the rest of the year, and had the same record as the Vikings (9-6) for the season outside of that head-to-head matchup. Cousins played great, and the Vikings stomped them. Even by your standards, that's "Cousins played well against a winning team and won". 

Apparently if I don't set boundaries you use games against 3 win teams as examples of quality opponents.  The 2nd game of the year is never that meaningful (I did mention early season games earlier in the thread),  use whatever standard you want,  your willing to set the standard wherever it takes for Kirk to be above it.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Worm Guts