Jets, Colts Swap 1st Round Picks

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

2 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

Might not have wanted to move down to 6. If they only like 3 QB's, Barkley, and Nelson it doesn't make sense to trade to 6. 

So it was Denver or bust then?  Doesn’t seem like a great way to maximize compensation.

2 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

They also might've been asking for more than the Colts, Jets just decided that going to 3 not 2 is better because they probably have a top 3 at QB as well.

Very possible.

2 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

This puts the Bills in a tough spot. Best shot is to move up from 12 to 4 and then move up from 4 to 2 if they are set on getting "their guy" instead of "settling" for the 4th QB taken

All depends on the Giants.  If they are set on a QB (which I believe they are), 1-3 aren’t moving out. 4 is the only option.

I can’t see that team pass on a prospect like Darnold or Rosen with Eli being as old as he is.

[Dodo]

Wow. I still think it'd be dumb for the Giants to not take a QB at 2, but they're now in a position to tell any trade partners "See that barrel over there? Go lay over it"

[Broncofan]

Are we so sure the Gmen are going QB 1.2?   Serious Q.   I think they would be absolutely certifiably insane to do anything else, given how Eli has clearly declined in play, but GM Gettleman has made this noise of sticking with Eli through and through (although he wouldn't rule out QB 1.2).   On another team, it would be just PR - but remember, after last season, NYG isn't likely to just pay lip service, not after how the prev FO botched Eli's benching.   If they wanted QB, they'd probably not want to commit so hard and so publicly, then have to do a 180 on Draft Night.  Now, before people say "lying season" - but we now know that CLE is pretty much locked into QB 1.1 with the Hyde signing and IND trading out to NYJ 1.3 (although IND moving down was easy to predict).    if anything, Gettleman can only increase the 1.2 pick value by swearing he's locked into QB.  He's certainly not going to fake CLE out either way.   Their decision is already locked in with the Hyde acquisition and IND-NYJ trade - it's just a matter of who they want now.

If NYG doesn't go QB but goes Barkley 1.2, in their situation, I'd say it's a big mistake (unlike CLE, a case could have been made, since they own 1.4 too - but that ship has sailed).   But stranger things have happened, and Barkley's ceiling is so legendary and unique, LT-level ceiling, that it's the only scenario that makes sense.  

Interested to hear the Gmen fanbase take here.   CLE 1.1 and NYJ 1.3 are locks for QB, but 1.2 doesn't seem a lock (IMO that's where I would go in their shoes, but there seems less reason for Gettleman to play games here, the ransom is going to be nuts no matter what - and if he wanted to drive up the price to trade down, he'd just telegraph a QB as his top choice, that would only increase demand).

[ACO]

I hope Giants stay at 2 and take a QB. It would make the most sense and be the best for them in the long run. They can grab a very decent RB at the top of the second round. 

[Kip Smithers]

Interesting. The Giants could trade down on draft day. But I do not see them by any stretch going past 6 unless they get a ransom. I think they don’t wanna move down that puts Barkley, Nelson or maybe a QB they love in jeopardy. Acting like the Giants are definitely taking a QB is being naive.

[ACO]

 

They have a specific player in mind at 6. Someone they think will definitely be there. He all but confirmed it.  Hmm. I wonder who it is after the QB haul. Chubb?

[lancerman]

43 minutes ago, Sepanak said:

This makes the Browns #1 pick that much more interesting. They have Tyrod and Hyde, and now have one more QB (pretty much) guaranteed to be gone by #4. Since Tyrod is only on a 1 year deal, this might force Browns to go QB at #1.

On the other hand, if the Bills trade up for the Giants pick, the Browns could very easily end up with the top QB and top non-QB in the draft.

This pretty much solidified the Browns picks. 

#1 Browns draft QB

#2 Giants draft QB

#3 Jets draft QB

#4 Browns draft Barkley or Chubbs 

There’s no reason to pick anyone besides a QB at 1. You’ll be pushed to the third best QB. Also the best non QB will be there at 4.

[Wyld Stallyns]

1 minute ago, ACO said:

 

Biggest line in there, “we talked to other teams but we wanted to stay in position in the top 10” 

sorry Bills

[lancerman]

36 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

I think it is a guarantee one or both move out. There is no way the Giants pick at 2 and the Browns pick at 4. 

Why? Giants still need the best QB they can get and Browns aren’t going to risk their preference of Barkley or Chubb

[IDOG_det]

@LETSGOBROWNIES if I'm the Giants I call the Bills and tell them I'd trade down to 4 if they can get there from 12. Browns probably target a LT at 12. Then trade from 4 to 5 with the Broncos so they can grab Mayfield. Darnold to the Browns at 1, Allen to the Bills at 2, Rosen to the Jets at 3, Mayfield to the Broncos at 4. Every team gets "their guy". Giants can take Barkley at 5 to try to "win now" with Eli after stockpiling some picks with two trade downs (they can target Jackson, Rudolph, or Lauletta in round 2 to develop behind him). Colts can take Chubb or Nelson at 6. 

[minutemancl]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Are we so sure the Gmen are going QB 1.2?   Serious Q.   I think they would be absolutely certifiably insane to do anything else, given how Eli has clearly declined in play, but GM Gettleman has made this noise of sticking with Eli through and through (although he wouldn't rule out QB 1.2).   On another team, it would be just PR - but remember, after last season, NYG isn't likely to just pay lip service, not after how the prev FO botched Eli's benching.   If they wanted QB, they'd probably not want to commit so hard and so publicly, then have to do a 180 on Draft Night.  Now, before people say "lying season" - but we now know that CLE is pretty much locked into QB 1.1 with the Hyde signing and IND trading out to NYJ 1.3 (although IND moving down was easy to predict).    if anything, Gettleman can only increase the 1.2 pick value by swearing he's locked into QB.  He's certainly not going to fake CLE out either way.   Their decision is already locked in with the Hyde acquisition and IND-NYJ trade - it's just a matter of who they want now.

If NYG doesn't go QB but goes Barkley 1.2, in their situation, I'd say it's a big mistake (unlike CLE, a case could have been made, since they own 1.4 too - but that ship has sailed).   But stranger things have happened, and Barkley's ceiling is so legendary and unique, LT-level ceiling, that it's the only scenario that makes sense.  

Interested to hear the Gmen fanbase take here.   CLE 1.1 and NYJ 1.3 are locks for QB, but 1.2 doesn't seem a lock (IMO that's where I would go in their shoes, but there seems less reason for Gettleman to play games here, the ransom is going to be nuts no matter what - and if he wanted to drive up the price to trade down, he'd just telegraph a QB as his top choice, that would only increase demand).

No one is sure. Here is what we know: Gettleman has said he is sticking with Eli, Shurmur has said he is sticking with Eli and even went as far to say he "could play for 3 more years", Gettleman and Shurmur both want to commit to a run game (Shurmur's offense runs a lot and utilizes play action liberally), Gettleman has drafted a RB early before, and lastly, Gettleman said when you're picking this high, "your expectation is to get a HOF player". Every sign points to Barkley. But then all common sense points to a QB, most likely Rosen, who brings up Shurmur unprompted in every interview he gives. I can't get a real read either way and the pros apparently can't either. 

[IDOG_det]

4 minutes ago, ACO said:

 

They have a specific player in mind at 6. Someone they think will definitely be there. He all but confirmed it.  Hmm. I wonder who it is after the QB haul. Chubb?

They probably would be fine with Barkley, Nelson, or Chubb. One of those 3 will be there with 3 QB's going in front of them. 

[MWil23]

16 minutes ago, Forge said:

I mean, Stafford completed 57% of his passes in college. Not like that is a huge difference. Cutler also completed 57% of his passes in college. 

But like I said earlier Stafford showed major progress and was 61% his junior year.

Allen has showed zero improvement in that area.

[ACO]

4 minutes ago, Kip Smithers said:

Interesting. The Giants could trade down on draft day. But I do not see them by any stretch going past 6 unless they get a ransom. I think they don’t wanna move down that puts Barkley, Nelson or maybe a QB they love in jeopardy. Acting like the Giants are definitely taking a QB is being naive.

I only see Gmen staying at 2 for Barkley, Nelson or a QB. That is it. If they want a QB but pass at 2 by risking someone being there at the top of Day 2 is bold and likely dumb. They could get potential starter RB and Gs in that spot. 

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, ACO said:

 

They have a specific player in mind at 6. Someone they think will definitely be there. He all but confirmed it.  Hmm. I wonder who it is after the QB haul. Chubb?

It's either Chubb/Nelson IMO.  Chubb is their plan A, Nelson their plan B.  Staying at 6 with 3 QB's going in top 5 means one of them will be there (Barkley is the other).  Moving down means they risk losing a guarantee that they are there.  I agree that it would take a ton to move down further, they moved down to get likely 3 top 50 picks and still get their guy.

GM Ballard whiffed on McDaniels, but that's on McDaniels.   I really like what Ballard's been doing.  He's got a clear plan, and is sticking to it - and not throwing $$ at the problem for quick fixes.   That's a better formula to rebuild.  I might have paid 8-9M for CB Melvin, but that's about it (and apparently he was asking for even more, before taking 6.5M from OAK).  But really, that's about it.