2019 Free Agent Discussion

[BrettFavre004]

2 hours ago, Nick_gb said:

I don't know if anyone is interested in the numbers it would cost the Packers on the Salary Cap to get Antonio Brown if a trade were to occur (Disclaimer, I'm not saying I want him here it's just there's a lot of talk in the media about this potential trade) but if you are, here are the figures:

If acquired prior to March 17, 2019:

2019 Cap hit: $14.1 Million

If Acquired after March 17, 2019:

2019 Cap hit: $12.6 Million 

Last 2 years of his contract cap hit: $11.9 Million per year (Top 15 WR in league Salary)

 

 

Seems like March 16th will be the day it happens.  Could see a few teams be willing to add on an extra pick post March 17th in order to save 1.5 million. 

Here's our 3rd, conditional 2020 pick, (4th -6th maybe), but then I'll throw in an extra 6th this year if its post March 17th.

[Chili]

21 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I believe he was set to earn 3 years, $24M before the deal was voided because his foot.  That $8M/year would have made him the 22nd highest paid corner.  Do you think Breeland is a top 22 corner?  I don't.  I don't overpay for solid players.  I overpay for special players.  What's his upside?  That he's a solid #2 CB.  And he's going to get moved to the #3 CB in an ideal world.  He's my #3 CB assuming everyone is healthy.  The only reason we're having this discussion is because Kevin King has struggled to stay healthy.

Preach. It makes little sense to commit #2 corner money on someone who could very potentially become our #3 or #4 corner when all is said and done. All of a sudden you got the problem of too much cap space being devoted to a non starting player and that's never a good situation to be in. King, Alexander and Jackson make up our core group and we always have Tramon Williams to fall back on too. I think we will be ok without Breeland imo - he isn't a must keep kind of talent so we need to be pragmatic here.

If we're smart we will let him sign a big contract elsewhere and we pocket that (hopefully) 3rd (but likely) 4th round compensatory pick. After that we got three options:

1. We can draft someone.

2. Try to sign a FA corner that was CUT from their team so they don't count towards our compensatory pick calculation.

3. or wait till the FA deadline so that any remaining free agents won't count towards our compensatory pick calculation.

[Golfman]

If the price is right I'm still hoping for Dante Fowler and David Irving. I know Irving has some issues, but if he's right he's one of the top two or three interior pass rushers in the NFL. The deal would have to be structured with some protections against his self-destruction. 

Fowler started to look like the guy who was drafted #3 overall in the playoffs. He might be getting right at the right time for the team that gets him. 

 

 

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, Chili said:

Preach. It makes little sense to commit #2 corner money on someone who could very potentially become our #3 or #4 corner when all is said and done. All of a sudden you got the problem of too much cap space being devoted to a non starting player and that's never a good situation to be in. King, Alexander and Jackson make up our core group and we always have Tramon Williams to fall back on too. I think we will be ok without Breeland imo - he isn't a must keep kind of talent so we need to be pragmatic here.

If we're smart we will let him sign a big contract elsewhere and we pocket that (hopefully) 3rd (but likely) 4th round compensatory pick. After that we got three options:

1. We can draft someone.

2. Try to sign a FA corner that was CUT from their team so they don't count towards our compensatory pick calculation.

3. or wait till the FA deadline so that any remaining free agents won't count towards our compensatory pick calculation.

Thank goodness! We can fall back on Tramon Williams to play meaningful snaps at corner! Why do people want to rely so badly on development or a player with history of being injured staying healthy?? Paying a solid starting cb 8m is a no brainer, if he gets outperformed? GREAT! You can cut players before they hit the end of their contracts. Kings contract is the first up after 2020 until then we have ample room to pay someone to help solidify the spot instead of crossing our fingers that Jackson makes a leap. 

3 corners are defacto starters in today's game. With injuries being almost guaranteed for a us at the position having 4 guys who can play it is needed. Tramon is not on the list of people who can play it.

Unless the plan is to bring in another 1st round CB to compete with all of our prospects there's virtually no reason to not hand Breeland a 3 year deal. And as the market dictates, if you've shown the capacity to play the position at starter level and you're under 30 you're almost guaranteed 7+m.

8m will not get you a 3rd round comp. Itll be closer to a 6th or 7th, check out what the Vikings got for Jerick McKinnon.. I really doubt we won't be big enough players in FA to offset any comp Breeland would bring regardless.

[HighCalebR]

QBs are getting 25+m boys. Reset your brains on what starting level players should get paid.

[packfanfb]

1 hour ago, Chili said:

Preach. It makes little sense to commit #2 corner money on someone who could very potentially become our #3 or #4 corner when all is said and done. All of a sudden you got the problem of too much cap space being devoted to a non starting player and that's never a good situation to be in. King, Alexander and Jackson make up our core group and we always have Tramon Williams to fall back on too. I think we will be ok without Breeland imo - he isn't a must keep kind of talent so we need to be pragmatic here.

If we're smart we will let him sign a big contract elsewhere and we pocket that (hopefully) 3rd (but likely) 4th round compensatory pick. After that we got three options:

1. We can draft someone.

2. Try to sign a FA corner that was CUT from their team so they don't count towards our compensatory pick calculation.

3. or wait till the FA deadline so that any remaining free agents won't count towards our compensatory pick calculation.

These days, you have to have 3 solid CBs. Right now we have one actual solid CB under contract, another average/good CB who's hurt all the time and two young unknowns in JJ and Tony B. Letting Breeland walk over $7-8 mil is downright idiotic. 

[CWood21]

On 2/22/2019 at 4:54 PM, HighCalebR said:

@CWood21   Who's that CB we're going to pay though? Have a browse through the CB FA group I've got MAYBE 4 guys I'd have ahead of him, one of those guys is Verrett who's also never stayed healthy. I 100% don't know how Melvin did in OAK. Then there's Bradley Roby or Ronald Darby. With Breeland giving us first right of refusal I'd assume he's the one we have a shot of actually landing. I'd definitely like Breeland ahead of Steven Nelson.

If the Robert Alford # I'm seeing is right Breeland is getting at LEAST 7. Alford was BAD this last year and he just got 3y-22.5? Is that right?

While I don't think Breeland is a top 25 CB without sitting down and actually going though them all I don't think he's THAT far out of it and at least 10 of the top 25 are on rookie contracts.

Look at the structure of the Alford contract.  It's essentially a 1 year deal with an option for two more years.  If that's the kind of 3 year deal that Breeland agrees to, I'm game.  But I don't think that's the kind of deal he's looking for.  I wouldn't be surprised if he pushed for a Prince Amukamara contract.

[ThatJerkDave]

fsehjsk

 

let me try again...

[ThatJerkDave]

I had a long post, but then realized that I had used 2019 cash, and not 2019 cap hit as a reference.  The numbers surprised me and I changed my stance, what do you think?

 

First thing we have to do is rate Bashard Breeland among his peers.  Is he top 32? 64? 96? Worse?  Keep in mind that the CBA dictates that younger players, especially UDFAs and picks after round 2 are going to make a lot less than a veteran, regardless of talent, so my comparison is not without flaw, no I don't think Darius Slay is the best CB in the league, even though his cap hit is the largest.

Giving Breeland 8 million per (his last contract, IIRC), and we won't complicate it, just give him 3 years 24 million, broken in even amounts, would be tied for 25th highest paid CB in 2019.  The Packers currently have Tramon Williams (30), Jaire Alexander (51), Kevin King (63), and Josh Jackson (66) in the top 100 by cap hit.  Tony Brown and Will Redmond are tied with a lot of guys at 137.  Tramon's 1.6 dead cap hit would rank him 65th.

source: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/cornerback/

Doing this by average salary per year, which I just think is interesting.  Obviously when rookie deals are up, some players will jump in.  Breeland's 8 million per would rank him 22nd.  The Packers have: Tramon (30), Alexander (42), King (55), and Jackson (57); with Redmond and Brown tied for 163.  Tramon's 1.6 cap hit would put him on the average, right above Jackson for #57.

source:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/cornerback/

So what are you getting at, Dave?

Each team starts 2 CBs, and since ~2010 we can say that there are 3 starting CBs per team, giving a total of 96 starters league wide.  Does anyone disagree with that? What the Packers have currently are four players being paid as if they were starting caliber, and that will be true if Tramon is on the team or released.  Adding Breeland's contract (even at 5 million per, as some suggested) would give the Packers five players being paid as if they were starting level players.  I haven't gone through for any other teams, so I don't know how common this is, we know at least one team doesn't have 3 in the top 96 though. 

Do we want to pay for five starting CBs? I was firmly in the camp of re-sign Breeland, it's a no-brainer.  After looking at these contract rankings, I am less sure.  Tramon is a personal favorite of mine, but that is a bad contract.  Is Jackson so bad that he needs to be replaced already? Do we risk adding another bad contract with Breeland? Do the medical staff think that we will only get 16 games out of the duo of King and Alexander again? Do we pay the 50th best CB as the 20th, and does that matter? I still lean toward signing Breeland, I am just a lot less sure that it is a smart decision.

[HighCalebR]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Look at the structure of the Alford contract.  It's essentially a 1 year deal with an option for two more years.  If that's the kind of 3 year deal that Breeland agrees to, I'm game.  But I don't think that's the kind of deal he's looking for.  I wouldn't be surprised if he pushed for a Prince Amukamara contract.

Yeah, I noticed Alford can basically be cut after the first year with minimal consequences but Breeland is 3 years his younger and we dont really have to worry about him losing his legs in the next contract unless he cant pass a physical. I'd assume we could set up a contract that gave us an out/made him tradable after 2020.  I dont like the idea of letting starter quality players out the door when we have the room.

 

@ThatJerkDave. I'd be interested to see where we rank as a team when it comes to salary allocation to the DB group as a whole.  I'd have to assume about 15 of those teams are paying 1-2 guys more than we're paying all 5 starters sans the new Breeland contract.

My comp is doing an update now and I dont want to research on the phone.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, HighCalebR said:

Yeah, I noticed Alford can basically be cut after the first year with minimal consequences but Breeland is 3 years his younger and we dont really have to worry about him losing his legs in the next contract unless he cant pass a physical. I'd assume we could set up a contract that gave us an out/made him tradable after 2020.  I dont like the idea of letting starter quality players out the door when we have the room.

 

@ThatJerkDave. I'd be interested to see where we rank as a team when it comes to salary allocation to the DB group as a whole.  I'd have to assume about 15 of those teams are paying 1-2 guys more than we're paying all 5 starters sans the new Breeland contract.

My comp is doing an update now and I dont want to research on the phone.

Sorting by DBs as a whole, we are 24th.  Or close enough it is late and that is what I counted to...  We have 16.9 million in defensive backs.  The league average is 27.6.  Adding Breeland at 5 would hop us two spots, adding him at 8 would jump us 7 spots.  

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/

We also only have one top 64 safety contract, Josh Jones is 62nd.  We don't pop back up until 111 with Raven Greene... is he still on the team or is that a cap hit we are eating? I would guess that this will change.

 

I would also like to add that the Ravens have 55.6 million going to defensive backs right now.  They get away with that by having 4.2 in QBs and RBs combined.  For comparison, the Packers have 4.7 in RBs, and Aaron Rodgers wipes his *** with 4.2 million.

[AlexGreen#20]

Step 1. Sign a FA Safety

Step 2. Draft a Safety

Step 3. Cut Tramon Williams.

Step 4. Have Breeland back up both Safety and CB 

[JBURGE]

5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Step 1. Sign a FA Safety - to realistically play 80+% of snaps

Step 2. Draft a Safety - who can realistically play snaps this year

Step 3. Cut Tramon Williams.

Step 4. Have Breeland back up both Safety and CB 

added a couple of my own requirements...

[moretti19]

Who are the high risk high reward 1 year contract types? Maybe someone we can give a contract like we did with Wilkerson and if they blow up we get a good comp pick from.

[Leader]

1 hour ago, moretti19 said:

Who are the high risk high reward 1 year contract types? Maybe someone we can give a contract like we did with Wilkerson and if they blow up we get a good comp pick from.

I'd be one. Certainly high risk...f they could get anything from me it would have to be considered high reward