What Should the Bucs do w/ Jameis Winston?

[N4L]

6 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

the bucs should cut Winston loose and watch 31 other GM's say: No thanks
Then they should draft/acquire a new starting QB for 2020 and beyond

Winston isn't getting any better, in fact his fatal flaw is getting worse as he reached new heights in his INT % this year under Arians
Jameis hit 4.3% on INTs, the worst in his 5 year career. After 68 NFL games, this is who he is: A bad decision maker on and off the field
I'd dump him and not give it a second thought

Arians didn't come to Tampa to draft and develop some rookie. The weapons they have aren't going to be around forever and if they dump Winston they will need to have a veteran coming in. Idk who that would be

Bowles didn't come to coach the defense with the idea that the players they have now are gonna be there for the long run. They have a lot of holes in their secondary that will require resources. 

They are 7-7 and Winston is just as responsible for a lot of their wins as he is for the losses. 

The second year of a system can be the year a QB starts to shine. He might be able to clean up the turnovers somewhat (lol) 

I think they don't really have a choice but to run it back for one year imo. They should either tag him or give him a 3 year contract that they can get out of after 1 or 2 years. I have no idea what their cap looks like, but it's not as if they are 4-10. They are 7-7 and if they were in the AFC they'd be in play for a wildcard spot lol 

[Shanedorf]

10 hours ago, N4L said:

Arians didn't come to Tampa to draft and develop some rookie. The weapons they have aren't going to be around forever and if they dump Winston they will need to have a veteran coming in. Idk who that would be

Bowles didn't come to coach the defense with the idea that the players they have now are gonna be there for the long run. They have a lot of holes in their secondary that will require resources. 

They are 7-7 and Winston is just as responsible for a lot of their wins as he is for the losses. 

The second year of a system can be the year a QB starts to shine. He might be able to clean up the turnovers somewhat (lol) 

I think they don't really have a choice but to run it back for one year imo. They should either tag him or give him a 3 year contract that they can get out of after 1 or 2 years. I have no idea what their cap looks like, but it's not as if they are 4-10. They are 7-7 and if they were in the AFC they'd be in play for a wildcard spot lol 

I get your point in terms of the team, players, coaches. They are ready now
But Jameis isn't going to magically become a good decision-maker. That's not a function of scheme, coaching, system or the surrounding cast
Its a function of who he is and who he has always been - both on the field and off. There is no part of his life or his career you can point to and say:

"He makes good decisions" 

He's never going to string together 4 playoff games to win a Title - so signing him and sticking with him for some incremental improvement is just sentencing the Bucs to 1-3 more years of coming up short in the most excruciating fashion. That wastes Arians, Bowles and the existing talent

Go get Cam Newton or Alex Smith or Teddy B or some other vet QB, marry him with Arians and the existing talent on offense and defense and make a run
Winston is fatally flawed and there isn't anything anybody can do to change that.

IMO, Its time to accept that reality

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

I get your point in terms of the team, players, coaches. They are ready now
But Jameis isn't going to magically become a good decision-maker. That's not a function of scheme, coaching, system or the surrounding cast
Its a function of who he is and who he has always been - both on the field and off. There is no part of his life or his career you can point to and say:

"He makes good decisions" 

He's never going to string together 4 playoff games to win a Title - so signing him and sticking with him for some incremental improvement is just sentencing the Bucs to 1-3 more years of coming up short in the most excruciating fashion. That wastes Arians, Bowles and the existing talent

Go get Cam Newton or Alex Smith or Teddy B or some other vet QB, marry him with Arians and the existing talent on offense and defense and make a run
Winston is fatally flawed and there isn't anything anybody can do to change that.

IMO, Its time to accept that reality

Again the issue is that a game manager QB (Smith / Teddy B) isn’t what Arians’ system calls for.  It needs a gunslinger skill set.  Those guys don’t have it.   Cam pre-shoulder would have been a potential fit but his warning flags are radioactive.  
 

And before ppl think it’s not what Arians & Licht are thinking....

At this stage it doesn’t seem to be a question of whether or not Jameis is returning - but whether it’s a 1-year tag or a  short extension to match Arians’ projected stay with Tampa. 

 

[Shanedorf]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

At this stage it doesn’t seem to be a question of whether or not Jameis is returning - but whether it’s a 1-year tag or a  short extension to match Arians’ projected stay with Tampa. 

thanks for the illumination about Arians system, greatly appreciated.
Also noted: pretty tough to argue with Arians' resounding vote of confidence:

"there's more good than bad"  

Good luck Bucs fans and if Jameis leads your team to the playoffs -  you're welcome to throw this back at me.

[JudeMorrigan]

I'm curious if anyone would be ok seeing their team give Winston a big contract if the Bucs *did* let him test the market.  I'm in an argument with folks on another board who insist that Winston would never sign a shorter-term contract and the team *has* to sign him to a multiyear contract well north of $25m/yr if they want to keep him.  I'm personally skeptical that the market for his services would be all that aggressive given his well-known issues.  But I do have to admit that teams can be stupid.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

thanks for the illumination about Arians system, greatly appreciated.
Also noted: pretty tough to argue with Arians' resounding vote of confidence:

"there's more good than bad"  

Good luck Bucs fans and if Jameis leads your team to the playoffs -  you're welcome to throw this back at me.

Yeah believe me when I say Jameis isn’t a lock to suddenly turn it all around.  He owns 75-80 percent of this year’s TO’s (although the pressure he faces also factors in).    Just that the system Arians puts in creates a high TO risk to begin with compared to other O’s, being so vertical and anticipation / timing based.  People forget Carson Palmer’s first half in the Arians system was baaad.   10 TD - 14 INT vs 14/8 2H his first year.   And the system needs a vertical passer.  So it’s really Jameis or bust for 2020+ in TAM now.  
 

If he’s a 16 TO guy next year (but 35+ TD, 5k yard guy) that’s probably a W for Arians.  The system takes risks.  Having said that 27 TO’s can’t happen next year.   But the lack of true gunslingers in FA & draft makes it Jameis SZN for 2020 barring a major bone headed off-field disaster.     He could absolutely fail but a year 2 improvement with better OL protection (bottom 5-10 unit) and a D that’s actually improving dramatically with its young secondary taking over, is very possible.   
 

And while there are no guarantees it should be noted that’s it’s been 1.5 years he’s been able to keep his nose clean off the field.   By next September if he’s still out if trouble it’s possible that maybe he’s finally learned.   Some young guys take time to learn.  As a DEN fan I can definitely say no one thought Von Miller would figure it out after his 6-game suspension and year 2-3 underachievement and inability to avoid trouble  at age 24.   We’ll see. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Broncofan

[Drained]

The answer is so simple, franchise him and draft a QB to scare him into working a bit harder. Allow him to have a full off-season with Arians and see how he comes back, are we forgetting that Carson Palmer threw 24 TD's and 22 INT's in his first season with Arians? Not as bad as Jameis but he was definitely older than Jameis and had more experience. 

[ravishingone]

39 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah believe me when I say Jameis isn’t a lock to suddenly turn it all around.  He owns 75-80 percent of this year’s TO’s (although the pressure he faces also factors in).    Just that the system Arians puts in creates a high TO risk to begin with compared to other O’s, being so vertical and anticipation / timing based.  People forget Carson Palmer’s first half in the Arians system was baaad.   10 TD - 14 INT vs 14/8 2H his first year.   And the system needs a vertical passer.  So it’s really Jameis or bust for 2020+ in TAM now.  
 

If he’s a 16 TO guy next year (but 35+ TD, 5k yard guy) that’s probably a W for Arians.  The system takes risks.  Having said that 27 TO’s can’t happen next year.   But the lack of true gunslingers in FA & draft makes it Jameis SZN for 2020 barring a major bone headed off-field disaster.     He could absolutely fail but a year 2 improvement with better OL protection (bottom 5-10 unit) and a D that’s actually improving dramatically with its young secondary taking over, is very possible.   
 

And while there are no guarantees it should be noted that’s it’s been 1.5 years he’s been able to keep his nose clean off the field.   By next September if he’s still out if trouble it’s possible that maybe he’s finally learned.   Some young guys take time to learn.  As a DEN fan I can definitely say no one thought Von Miller would figure it out after his 6-game suspension and year 2-3 underachievement and inability to avoid trouble  at age 24.   We’ll see. 

Actually the incident that he was suspended for happened after his rookie season.  I do get what you are getting at though.

Plus, all contracts have comduct claused that give the team protection with guaranteed money involving personal conduct policy.

[ET80]

I'd offer him what the Jags offered Blake Bortles - nothing more than a 3 year deal. That was a moderate deal, with an out for the franchise with minimal cap issues. 

Winston has been more statistically productive than Bortles, but he's got no real team success to leverage and has off field concerns that will always devalue him in the eyes of GMs.

In the meantime, you scout QBs. Try to find a later round guy who can develop... Or hope you find a unicorn in the later rounds. You keep doing this, getting more and more aggressive - by the time you get into Winston's contract year on this "new" deal, you're either looking for a top tier QB prospect or you're extending Winston with a multi year deal.

[bucsfan333]

3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

thanks for the illumination about Arians system, greatly appreciated.
Also noted: pretty tough to argue with Arians' resounding vote of confidence:

"there's more good than bad"  

Good luck Bucs fans and if Jameis leads your team to the playoffs -  you're welcome to throw this back at me.

I mean. We're a missed FG and early whistle on a fumble recovery away from being 9-5 right now, despite the 30 turnovers from Jameis.

[Split the Sticks]

I hear ya, @bucsfan333 - implication being, they are a good team that wins despite the QB

[Nabbs4u]

He's basically Eli Manning. You could do worse. Just have to hope those TO lessen the more familiar he gets in Arians System.

Manning has averaged 16INT per season over his career. So has Famous Jameis!

[bucsfan333]

5 minutes ago, Split the Sticks said:

I hear ya, @bucsfan333 - implication being, they are a good team that wins despite the QB

We also only win games because of Jameis Winston.

Our defense hasn't won us a game. Our running game hasn't won us a game - maybe during Jameis' rookie year. But we haven't had a running game since then.

It's a cruel catch 22.

[Nzd07]

Keep him and try to get a run game going.

[bucsfan333]

16 hours ago, N4L said:

23 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

the bucs should cut Winston loose and watch 31 other GM's say: No thanks
Then they should draft/acquire a new starting QB for 2020 and beyond

Winston isn't getting any better, in fact his fatal flaw is getting worse as he reached new heights in his INT % this year under Arians
Jameis hit 4.3% on INTs, the worst in his 5 year career. After 68 NFL games, this is who he is: A bad decision maker on and off the field
I'd dump him and not give it a second thought

Arians didn't come to Tampa to draft and develop some rookie. The weapons they have aren't going to be around forever and if they dump Winston they will need to have a veteran coming in. Idk who that would be

Bowles didn't come to coach the defense with the idea that the players they have now are gonna be there for the long run. They have a lot of holes in their secondary that will require resources.

BA actually just mentioned today going 15-0 with a rookie Roethlisberger and making the playoffs with a rookie Luck. He doesn't seem to mind having a rookie QB. He said it just depends on the guy.

Our secondary has actually played really well since cutting VHIII. It's a small sample size, sure. But our secondary is starting three rookies and two second year players. Experience has always been our biggest need.