What to do at QB?

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

They may not end up taking a QB, but it’s not just smoke. I don’t think they’re going to pull the trigger on a trade up but if Fields/Lance is there at 9, I’d be floored if they don’t take one of them. 

My impression with Paton is you’re not going to catch him in a desperate move. He may miss out on some opportunities by not being overly aggressive, but he’s also going to be rewarded for his patience a lot of the time and get players he wants without giving up value. We saw this with the Kyle Fuller and Kareem Jackson signings. I would have traded a Day 3 pick for Fuller. Paton didn’t have to. 

Yeah, I think Denver is taking a QB at 9.  Which one is there, I don’t know, but I think all of Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Jones, and Lance are all top 10 prospects.  Lance scares me the most, however.

Edited April 20, 2021 by germ-x

[AKRNA]

I think if we'd drafted Drew at #10 the conversation would be much different. More like "make or break year", that sort of thing. 

Talking about how Josh Allen sucked for his first two years and finally got it in his third season would be common. How common the sophomore slump is. How committed Drew seems this off season as compared to last.

We'd be pointing out things like, only 18 starts, different OC's and systems, porous OL for much of the time, and focusing on 2nd year in the system, great "non-rookie" weapons around him, an OL showing signs of being good to very good. There'd be a lot of agreement that if he doesn't turn the corner this year we move on. 

We just wouldn't be willing to dump him yet.

Anyway, I don't see us drafting a QB at all. Staying put and picking "BPA" or trading down seem far more likely to me.

[BroncoBruin]

38 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I think if we'd drafted Drew at #10 the conversation would be much different. More like "make or break year", that sort of thing. 

Talking about how Josh Allen sucked for his first two years and finally got it in his third season would be common. How common the sophomore slump is. How committed Drew seems this off season as compared to last.

We'd be pointing out things like, only 18 starts, different OC's and systems, porous OL for much of the time, and focusing on 2nd year in the system, great "non-rookie" weapons around him, an OL showing signs of being good to very good. There'd be a lot of agreement that if he doesn't turn the corner this year we move on. 

We just wouldn't be willing to dump him yet.

Anyway, I don't see us drafting a QB at all. Staying put and picking "BPA" or trading down seem far more likely to me.

But they didn’t view him that way, or they would have taken him at 10. Now it’s a new regime and they’ve been looking at QBs all offseason. 

But I can’t say this enough, drafting a QB doesn’t mean dumping Lock. In all likelihood, the rookie would not be ready to start from Day 1. If Lock can’t win a competition against a rookie as a third year player with experience in the offense, we know without a doubt he wasn’t the guy. And if he does win the job, he’ll keep it as long as he plays well. Nothing changes except you have another plan in place, at a position where it’s pretty important to have a plan. Drafting a QB means they wouldn’t be desperate next year when it will be much more difficult to acquire one both from a draft position standpoint (roster is too good to pick this high again) and cost perspective (2018 guys have new deals coming up).

[anewdawn]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

I think if we'd drafted Drew at #10 the conversation would be much different. More like "make or break year", that sort of thing. 

Talking about how Josh Allen sucked for his first two years and finally got it in his third season would be common. How common the sophomore slump is. How committed Drew seems this off season as compared to last.

We'd be pointing out things like, only 18 starts, different OC's and systems, porous OL for much of the time, and focusing on 2nd year in the system, great "non-rookie" weapons around him, an OL showing signs of being good to very good. There'd be a lot of agreement that if he doesn't turn the corner this year we move on. 

We just wouldn't be willing to dump him yet.

Anyway, I don't see us drafting a QB at all. Staying put and picking "BPA" or trading down seem far more likely to me.

Re the bold.  I think Paton making an attempt to get Stafford is the setting of the table so to speak.  Paton clearly recognizes that this team is very good and one qb away.  He won't be desperate, he won't pay too much but one way or another I see him pulling out that chair for our new head of the table - our new qb.

[AKRNA]

6 minutes ago, anewdawn said:

Re the bold.  I think Paton making an attempt to get Stafford is the setting of the table so to speak.  Paton clearly recognizes that this team is very good and one qb away.  He won't be desperate, he won't pay too much but one way or another I see him pulling out that chair for our new head of the table - our new qb.

Stafford would have improved this team from day 1, no question. Comparing him to any of the rookies is however apples and oranges.

I don't see another Stafford out there, leading me to believe Drew is the guy this year. One thing not talked about much is the backup. I think Rypien might have the best job security of all. By now he understands the offense better than Drew ever will and will be a great asset on the sidelines. 

Perfect change of pace also if you need to bring him in. I really like smart QB's. 

[BroncoBruin]

I like Rypien...as a practice squad guy who is essentially an extension of the coaching staff. 4 interceptions in 5 quarters of play does not inspire confidence. 

[broncosfan07]

Yeah Rypien is someone that could be cut and I doubt it would be a big deal, everyone loved Dysert for years and that went exactly nowhere. 

Really not sure where the narrative that because we drafted him in the first few rounds we have to give him time. Why? This isn’t 2007 where we have millions of dollars invested in him and have to feel obligated to hold onto him. How many starts does he get before we determine whether he’s trash or going to be a franchise QB?  Could he show improvement this year? Sure, but so did Blake Bortles. That shouldn’t prevent you from getting a QB *IF* one can be got. 

[thebestever6]

Lance is believed to be needed not sit a year and absorb things idk whether that makes Denver ideal or not.  Drew Lock wouldn't have to look over his shoulder, and we'd have a plan ready to hit the ground running.

[BroncoBruin]

17 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Lance is believed to be needed not sit a year and absorb things idk whether that makes Denver ideal or not.  Drew Lock wouldn't have to look over his shoulder, and we'd have a plan ready to hit the ground running.

If he’s so raw you don’t want him stepping on the field at all in 2021, it would create the need for a buffer like Bridgewater or Minshew. Because this is still a team that needs to be competitive and there’s a chance Lock just doesn’t figure it out. And that will create other weird dynamics. Is the veteran going to be tasked with helping along a rookie while Lock is just focused on starting and playing well? That almost makes sense on paper but seems kind of awkward. Maybe none of that is necessary and we overstate how raw Lance is. 

On the other hand I’m not sure Fields will be ready to take the job immediately but I think if he’s thrown into the fire, he’s got a shot to do some good things. So you may not need the playable veteran. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by BroncoBruin

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

If he’s so raw you don’t want him stepping on the field at all in 2021, it would create the need for a buffer like Bridgewater or Minshew. Because this is still a team that needs to be competitive and there’s a chance Lock just doesn’t figure it out. And that will create other weird dynamics. Is the veteran going to be tasked with helping along a rookie while Lock is just focused on starting and playing well? That almost makes sense on paper but seems kind of awkward. Maybe none of that is necessary and we overstate how raw Lance is. 

On the other hand I’m not sure Fields will be ready to take the job immediately but I think if he’s thrown into the fire, he’s got a shot to do some good things. So you may not need the playable veteran. 

I thik a guy like nick Foles at 4 mill would help Lance and Lock tremendously I mean he had a career year under Shurmer.

[jsthomp2007]

If the Broncos draft Lance I'd trade Lock for Foles and also would expect a draft pick back for Lock.  But then I would start Foles and let Lance learn behind him.  I wonder if you had a great team around Foles if he could win a Super Bowl?  Oh yeah...you can, he's proven it. 

[broncos67]

16 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Stafford would have improved this team from day 1, no question. Comparing him to any of the rookies is however apples and oranges.

I don't see another Stafford out there, leading me to believe Drew is the guy this year. One thing not talked about much is the backup. I think Rypien might have the best job security of all. By now he understands the offense better than Drew ever will and will be a great asset on the sidelines. 

Perfect change of pace also if you need to bring him in. I really like smart QB's. 

Gotta disagree with you here AK. Rypien is a PS guy, and maybe with time he becomes a backup QB who you could use in a one-off way, but he's no more than that. Denver has the worst QB room in the league, IMO. No legitimate veteran backup + an unproven starter.

Lock might figure it out this year, I don't discount that possibility. Hell, it would be great if he did. But we should realistically ask ourselves what "figuring it out" means for him. Is it top 15 QB play? If it is, is that good enough? I could see Lock making that jump, but I cannot see him making a jump to a Top 10 QB this year. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

Gotta disagree with you here AK. Rypien is a PS guy, and maybe with time he becomes a backup QB who you could use in a one-off way, but he's no more than that. Denver has the worst QB room in the league, IMO. No legitimate veteran backup + an unproven starter.

Lock might figure it out this year, I don't discount that possibility. Hell, it would be great if he did. But we should realistically ask ourselves what "figuring it out" means for him. Is it top 15 QB play? If it is, is that good enough? I could see Lock making that jump, but I cannot see him making a jump to a Top 10 QB this year. 

That’s the issue in a nutshell.  The floor is that he’s never making the leap.   The ceiling is more of a top 11-15 guy.   His talent isn’t off the charts - that’s part of the problem he thinks he’s got more arm skills than he actually has, which leads to the TO’s.  
 

If he fulfills his 60-70th percentile potential he’s an average QB.   Beat case he’s maybe around top 10-ish ceiling but a lot of things have to go right.  More likely 13-18 range.   Here’s the kicker - in other divisions maybe you get away with that.   In the AFCW - that’s just not good enough to be a sustainable legit contender.   There’s a reason why LV kicked the tires on trading Derek Carr.   His level outcome can’t compete with Mahomes (duh) but also even Herbert’s ceiling / floor.    It also doesn’t factor Lock’s bust potential.  

Edited April 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[The Helicopter]

15 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That’s the issue in a nutshell.  The floor is that he’s never making the leap.   The ceiling is more of a top 11-15 guy.   His talent isn’t off the charts - that’s part of the problem he thinks he’s got more arm skills than he actually has, which leads to the TO’s.  
 

If he fulfills his 60-70th percentile potential he’s an average QB.   Beat case he’s maybe around top 10-ish ceiling but a lot of things have to go right.  More likely 13-18 range.   Here’s the kicker - in other divisions maybe you get away with that.   In the AFCW - that’s just not good enough to be a sustainable legit contender.   There’s a reason why LV kicked the tires on trading Derek Carr.   His level outcome can’t compete with Mahomes (duh) but also even Herbert’s ceiling / floor.    It also doesn’t factor Lock’s bust potential.  

Well, none of this matters so long as Brady is playing. Plus, if Mahomes is the Kidd to the GOAT, then the AFCW will be the new AFCE, meaning KC will continuously win the division and represent until Mahomes retires. If this is the future scenario, I say let's stock the D.

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, The Helicopter said:

Well, none of this matters so long as Brady is playing. Plus, if Mahomes is the Kidd to the GOAT, then the AFCW will be the new AFCE, meaning KC will continuously win the division and represent until Mahomes retires. If this is the future scenario, I say let's stock the D.

That can work the odd year when you create the perfect D or a no-holes roster (and no key injuries occur).    But for sustained contention top QB play is how teams repeatedly get back to the Final 4.   A lot of ways you can win 1 SB.  To keep coming back to the CG’s and get that shot at the ring though - great QB play drives it. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Broncofan