2020 NFC Championship - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

[Shanedorf]

unfortunately, Antonio Brown will not be joining the festivities on Sunday as a result of his knee injury

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, indifference said:

Good luck running on White and David see how that turned out last game.

You'd be lying if you didn't think the back-to-back INTs weren't a HUGE change in the game.  The Packers were 7th in NFL turnover differential this year.  The Pacers were -2 in that category during their game.  Give credit to the Buccaneers for making the plays they did, but that was BY FAR Rodgers worst game of his year.  2 of his 5 INTs came against the Buccaneers, the only game that Rodgers didn't complete 60%+ of his passes, and one of only 2 games in which he didn't average at least 7 YPA.

[brushmyhair]

On 1/17/2021 at 7:30 PM, Plat2 said:

Isn't Rodgers like 0-3 against Brady?

No.

 

He's 1-2

[Shanedorf]

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I mean, Tampa was the #1 ranked run defense in football this year, and Vita Vea might be playing this Sunday...

So, don't be too assured that any gashing will take place.

It will be a struggle to run on that front, no doubt. We were told the same thing vs Rams D and managed 188 on the ground anyways

Saints ran 25 times for 104 yds last week and that was without Murray or Hill available and the Bucs crowding the LOS because noodle-arm was no threat.

IF the Bucs consistently dedicate a safety to Adams, they're vulnerable elsewhere- that's the issue in a zero sum game. Vita Vea is fantastic, but not sure how much you'll get out of him in 1st game back in months. First he has to get up to football speed, and then playoff football speed is one notch up from there.

Good match up

[indifference]

9 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You'd be lying if you didn't think the back-to-back INTs weren't a HUGE change in the game.  The Packers were 7th in NFL turnover differential this year.  The Pacers were -2 in that category during their game.  Give credit to the Buccaneers for making the plays they did, but that was BY FAR Rodgers worst game of his year.  2 of his 5 INTs came against the Buccaneers, the only game that Rodgers didn't complete 60%+ of his passes, and one of only 2 games in which he didn't average at least 7 YPA.

I’m not talking about Aaron Rodgers. im talking your rush attack vs our DL/LB matchup. The speed of our core LB negated those perimeter runs and when tried running N/S got nothing as well.  

Bowles forces teams to be 1 dimensional, we’ll see how they do Sunday.

Edited January 22, 2021 by indifference

[CWood21]

Just now, indifference said:

I’m not talking about Aaron Rodgers. im talking your rush attack vs our DL/LB matchup. The speed of our core LB negated those perimeter runs and when tried running N/S got nothing as well. 

The Packers' offense was coasting up until the two INTs.  They were up 10-0 driving with the ball.  The Packers 7 of their 21 rushing attempts (if you include Rodgers' TD scramble) on their first two drives.  7 of their first 21 plays were rushing attempts, which is 33.3% of the plays.  After that, they had 3 series that lasted 5+ plays.  They had 6 series that were 3 & outs (including Rodgers' second INT).  The Packers offense fell out of rhythm after the INTs.

[ET80]

1 minute ago, Shanedorf said:

It will be a struggle to run on that front, no doubt. We were told the same thing vs Rams D and managed 188 on the ground anyways

Not saying it's not possible, but don't assume it's a foregone conclusion that Jones/Dillon/Williams are going to be running a track meet.

1 minute ago, Shanedorf said:

Saints ran 25 times for 104 yds last week and that was without Murray or Hill available and the Bucs crowding the LOS because noodle-arm was no threat.

...so, all they could rely on was 2nd team All Pro RB Alvin Kamara?

If only we could all be so lucky, IMO.

3 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

IF the Bucs consistently dedicate a safety to Adams, they're vulnerable elsewhere- that's the issue in a zero sum game. Vita Vea is fantastic, but not sure how much you'll get out of him in 1st game back in months. First he has to get up to football speed, and then playoff football speed is one notch up from there.

I would consider his mere presence down there as a keystone - it opens up others to get to the ball. Vea himself won't be making the plays, but he'll allow others to make them.

5 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Good match up

Agreed - it's strength vs strength, neither side should have a definitive advantage in this respect.

[CWood21]

Just now, ET80 said:

Not saying it's not possible, but don't assume it's a foregone conclusion that Jones/Dillon/Williams are going to be running a track meet.

I'm not sure anyone (myself included) is suggesting that.  What we are saying is that you're going to double-bracket Adams the entire game, you're going to be vulnerable elsewhere.  And it's not like the Packers don't have a few options to throw to besides Adams.

[Jaire_Island]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

The Packers' offense was coasting up until the two INTs.  They were up 10-0 driving with the ball.  The Packers 7 of their 21 rushing attempts (if you include Rodgers' TD scramble) on their first two drives.  7 of their first 21 plays were rushing attempts, which is 33.3% of the plays.  After that, they had 3 series that lasted 5+ plays.  They had 6 series that were 3 & outs (including Rodgers' second INT).  The Packers offense fell out of rhythm after the INTs.

Although they were up 10-0, Packers didn’t looked comfortable during those 2 scoring drives either.

That day is humid with the wind. Packers are coming off a 4 straight wins(all one sided games), bye and a bit rusty. 

Bucs lost against sub par team in Chicago and prepared hard for this game and we can see on the field. 
 

This is an entirely different ball game. 

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

...so, all they could rely on was 2nd team All Pro RB Alvin Kamara?

If only we could all be so lucky, IMO.

Aaron Jones: 201 rushing attempts, 1104 rushing yards, 9 rushing TD, 47 receptions, 355 receiving yards, 2 TD receptions
Alvin Kamara: 187 rushing attempts, 932 rushing yards, 16 rushing TD, 83 receptions, 756 receiving yards, 5 TD receptions

I mean, if Alvin Kamara is that good, Aaron Jones isn't far behind.  Give credit to Sean Payton for utilizing Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield, but Aaron Jones isn't a slouch there either.

[Shanedorf]

 

[indifference]

Just now, CWood21 said:

The Packers' offense was coasting up until the two INTs.  They were up 10-0 driving with the ball.  The Packers 7 of their 21 rushing attempts (if you include Rodgers' TD scramble) on their first two drives.  7 of their first 21 plays were rushing attempts, which is 33.3% of the plays.  After that, they had 3 series that lasted 5+ plays.  They had 6 series that were 3 & outs (including Rodgers' second INT).  The Packers offense fell out of rhythm after the INTs.

Bowles dialed up the blitz packages on A Rod after playing off coverage / soft that lead to the 10-0 lead. That change in strategy forced his worst game of the season. The personnel is still the same on both ends. I don’t think A Rod will play like that again but if your OL/backs don’t pick up free runners it’ll be another long day.

[Shanedorf]

https://www.packers.com/news/packers-take-on-bucs-in-nfc-championship

Packers vs Buccaneers:

• All time, regular season: 32-22-1
• All-time, postseason: 1-0
• All-time, at home: 19-7 (16-5 at Lambeau Field)
• All-time, at home in postseason: 1-0 (1-0 at Lambeau Field)
• Streaks: The series is split 5-5 in the last 10 games between the two teams
• Last meeting, regular season: Oct. 18, 2020, Raymond James Stadium, Buccaneers won, 38-10

NOTABLE CONNECTIONS

Packers defensive backs coach Jerry Gray played one season as a defensive back for the Buccaneers in 1993…Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett served as the Buccaneers' quarterbacks coach from 2006-07...Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles spent two years as a college scouting assistant for the Packers from 1995-96

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, indifference said:

Bowles dialed up the blitz packages on A Rod after playing off coverage / soft that lead to the 10-0 lead. That change in strategy forced his worst game of the season. The personnel is still the same on both ends. I don’t think A Rod will play like that again but if your OL/backs don’t pick up free runners it’ll be another long day.

Don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe Rodgers' numbers are vastly superior when you blitz him then when you only rush 4.  That's the key.  If the Buccaneers can get pressure with their front 4 without blitzing, their chances of winning go up.  On top of the 2 INTs, Rodgers was sacked FOUR times against the Buccaneers which accounts for 20% of their sacks given up all season.  The Packers only gave up multiple sacks to Carolina (5) and Philadelphia (2).  If they keep Rodgers' clean and he doesn't throw any INTs, he's going to have a field day on that defense IMO.

[Shanedorf]

 

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

 If they keep Rodgers' clean and he doesn't throw any INTs, he's going to have a field day on that defense IMO.

"The Packers have won four consecutive playoff games at Lambeau Field (one in the 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020 postseasons). Green Bay has turned the ball over once in those four contests, posting zero giveaways in three straight."