Week 15 Covid List Discussion

[Uncle Buck]

We are now entering the time of the season where multiple teams start to regret not stumping up that first rounder to the Jags for Gardner Minshew. 

[BullsandBroncos]

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

To be fair NO had a TE play QB they’re just used to it. 

True but yes they are used to it. 

[Kiwibrown]

We are going to learn a lot about the nfl.

 

Will they let asymptomatic players play? If so will this lead to a wild fire of covid?

[BullsandBroncos]

12 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

We are going to learn a lot about the nfl.

 

Will they let asymptomatic players play? If so will this lead to a wild fire of covid?

As much as some of us want to say yes, doing so may cause a Dakota Dozier situation and that is the last thing any player needs. Asymptomatic players should be given 3 tests on the spot in case it's a false positive. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by BullsandBroncos

[Tk3]

3 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

We are going to learn a lot about the nfl.

 

Will they let asymptomatic players play? If so will this lead to a wild fire of covid?

This would be extraordinarily shocking

The solution is going to have to be bringing in guys off the street to play on 2 days notice - and dealing with the consequences of that

[BobbyPhil1781]

People gonna be scrambling for fantasy football playoff waivers. 

[Matts4313]

Covid in the NFL this year feels worse than last year. There were ~250 players who got covid last year. There were 36 players diagnosed on Monday alone. I thought I read it was up to 75 or something in one week in the past month, but I dont remember the source to take that with a huge grain of salt.

 

EDIT1: Found it, it was over 2 days and it was this week: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/14/two-days-75-positive-player-covid-tests/

 

EDIT2: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/covid-19-list-tracker-for-players-nfl-policies/

^^^Somebody count that and see how many weve had this year.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Matts4313

[Matts4313]

4 hours ago, Xenos said:

NFL needs to go back to the enhanced protocols from last season to salvage this one. Obviously they’ll still play the games regardless but is it worth it if it’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers?

Im so disappointed my Cowboys havent done this on their own. The teams that do will have a competitive advantage. 

[Broncofan]

33 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Covid in the NFL this year feels worse than last year. There were ~250 players who got covid last year. There were 36 players diagnosed on Monday alone. I thought I read it was up to 75 or something in one week in the past month, but I dont remember the source to take that with a huge grain of salt.

 

EDIT1: Found it, it was over 2 days and it was this week: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/14/two-days-75-positive-player-covid-tests/

 

EDIT2: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/covid-19-list-tracker-for-players-nfl-policies/

^^^Somebody count that and see how many weve had this year.

It's Omicron.   FAR more transmissable (while vaxxes still prevent serious disease, against Omicron, not as effective in preventing getting the virus).  The good news is that the severity also appears to be far less in otherwise healthy ppl.    But from a pure football perspective (which is the focus,  I'll regret posting this if this post leads to OT talk, but figure ppl should understand why things are changing now),  when it comes to players missing games, Omicron is a game-changer.   Since positive cases take them out a minimum 5 days (TJ Watt's amazingly short time to 2 negative tests) on average for >7 days, this means a missed game. 

There's no surprise the NFL & NFLPA are talking about enhanced protocols.   The teams that do this will have a definite competitive advantage.  And the NFL is likely considering shortening the window a player has to wait before returning, especially if vaxxed.    The 10-day window probably doesn't apply to elite athletes who are asymptomatic.    But that doesn't help the teams this week.   

I'll say it again - the fact that players who test positive need 7+ days to get 2 negative tests - don't expect games to get pushed back.   The changes the league is likely to adopt with NFLPA agreement are  changes in testing (back to daily), bubbling by teams, enhanced safety measures (masking indoors), and yes, the league may shorten the time players are out who test positive, ESPECIALLY if vaxxed & asymptomatic (likely both would be required).

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[kingseanjohn]

24 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Somebody count that and see how many weve had this year.

Why count when you can copy and paste and have it done for you?

The answer is 319. Note that I saw a coach or two have their name on the list. But I'm not going to go through the effort of figuring out who is and isn't a coach.

[Matts4313]

3 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

Why count when you can copy and paste and have it done for you?

The answer is 319. Note that I saw a coach or two have their name on the list. But I'm not going to go through the effort of figuring out who is and isn't a coach.

So we are ~25-30% higher than all of last year and we still have 4 games + playoffs left to go. Wild. 

[WizeGuy]

9 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Covid in the NFL this year feels worse than last year. There were ~250 players who got covid last year. There were 36 players diagnosed on Monday alone. I thought I read it was up to 75 or something in one week in the past month, but I dont remember the source to take that with a huge grain of salt.

 

EDIT1: Found it, it was over 2 days and it was this week: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/14/two-days-75-positive-player-covid-tests/

 

EDIT2: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/covid-19-list-tracker-for-players-nfl-policies/

^^^Somebody count that and see how many weve had this year.

The rules were more strict, and people weren't gathering nearly as much last year. Delta also stresses the vaccines, and with Omicron coming- you're going to see a lot more infections. The NFL is going to have to get strict again, or this season may get derailed by outbreaks. This virus is a diligent little bastard.

Edited December 16, 2021 by WizeGuy

[WizeGuy]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's Omicron.   FAR more transmissable (while vaxxes still prevent serious disease, against Omicron, not as effective in preventing getting the virus).  The good news is that the severity also appears to be far less in otherwise healthy ppl.    But from a pure football perspective (which is the focus,  I'll regret posting this if this post leads to OT talk, but figure ppl should understand why things are changing now),  when it comes to players missing games, Omicron is a game-changer.   Since positive cases take them out a minimum 5 days (TJ Watt's amazingly short time to 2 negative tests) on average for >7 days, this means a missed game. 

There's no surprise the NFL & NFLPA are talking about enhanced protocols.   The teams that do this will have a definite competitive advantage.  And the NFL is likely considering shortening the window a player has to wait before returning, especially if vaxxed.    The 10-day window probably doesn't apply to elite athletes who are asymptomatic.    But that doesn't help the teams this week.   

I'll say it again - the fact that players who test positive need 7+ days to get 2 negative tests - don't expect games to get pushed back.   The changes the league is likely to adopt with NFLPA agreement are  changes in testing (back to daily), bubbling by teams, enhanced safety measures (masking indoors), and yes, the league may shorten the time players are out who test positive, ESPECIALLY if vaxxed & asymptomatic (likely both would be required).

I'm not sure if Omicron is wide spread enough in the US, YET. It could just be antibodies waning. We know effectiveness against infection wanes after a certain amount of months, and these guys are constantly in high risk settings. Delta is a beast, too. When Omicron becomes more prevalent then the outbreaks may be even bigger. Crazy. 

You're right, though. They need to tighten ship, or else the playoffs are going to be a cluster f*** because it's likely we'll be knee deep in Omicron as we're entering January. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by WizeGuy

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, WizeGuy said:

I'm not sure if Omicron is wide spread enough in the US, YET. It could just be antibodies waning. We know effectiveness against infection wanes after a certain amount of months, and these guys are constantly in high risk settings. Delta is a beast, too. When Omicron becomes more prevalent then the outbreaks may be even bigger. Crazy. 

You're right, though. They need to tighten ship, or else the playoffs are going to be a cluster f*** because it's likely we'll be knee deep in Omicron as we're entering January. 

The most recent data suggests that's it's over half the new cases in northern states and Canadian provinces this past week.    This is less than 3 weeks after the first official cases were reported.  The R factor is over 4 with Omicron (which 2 is the threshold for spreading quickly - for each person infected, they infect 2 more, with Omicron it's over 4, that's why once here, the numbers explode).   Any area with a high vaxx rate that had a fall increase, then a drop, then a big surge in the past 2-3 weeks - that's not explained by the usual factors of indoor clustering / more exposure, given what we know about the vaxx's effectiveness against Delta.    A surge now in December can't be explained by usual seasonal surge, when we've seen it earlier this fall, followed by dips/plateau.   A 2nd surge in regions, combined with a massive rapid spike in case growth (thankfully almost all mild, unless at-risk individuals <like pre-existing respiratory conditions or immunocompromised state>), can only logically mean Omicron is here.   The whole "antibodies waning" idea is pretty much never seen with pandemic-becomes-endemic viruses in the vaccine era - but more likely new variants that simply break through for infection (but fortunately with vaxxed population, aren't as severe - H1N1 year 2 being the most recent example).

Most importantly, the above was the logical scientific conclusion, but could only be confirmed once variant gene testing was done - which isn't routinely done in all cases, or in all states yet.     But the NFL pays for this testing, and the data now confirms Omicron is already here (see link below).    

Omicron being here is why the NFL & NFLPA are taking a different approach - because being vaxxed isn't enough to prevent infection now (but it does still prevent severe disease in otherwise healthy individuals, all the more reason to get vaxxed), the enhanced measures will need to be with Omicron, for the reasons cited above.   The flip side is that the 10-day can't-play window was determined in the unvaxxed era - data with players and otherwise healthy vaxxed individuals suggests this is longer than needed to prevent spread, and why weather balloons about shortening this window are going out in social media from national beat reporters.  Expect to hear more reports like Batista's below:

 

I'm a little uneasy to go that much in-depth on Omicron - but knowledge is power (but it's hard to get a clear picture, and there's far too much misinformation out there, a sad reality that's not going away), and it helps to have the objective picture to understand why the NFL is changing their approach midseason.   From a football perspective, Omicron's high transmissibility is an absolute game changer, also paired with lower severity in healthy adults, is why the NFL is considering sweeping changes, and the NFLPA is playing ball.   Expect to see enhanced measures, daily testing, and yes, even shortened windows before return to play for vaxxed (or even boostered) / asymptomatic players.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[MWil23]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

Sat game not getting moved.   It’s NO-DEN 2022 ppl.  

He took a dump all over Cleveland twice last year with the Jets in the regular season and Pittsburgh in the playoffs, so why not take a 2021 victory lap? He and Manfred are really vying for that "worst GM in the history of sports" title.