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Week 17 Gameday Thread (New Years Day Edition) - Green Bay Packers (7-8-0) vs Minnesota (12-3-0)


Striker

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2 hours ago, Striker said:

By record, the Vikings are the better team. By stats (and probably by personnel) the Packers are a better team who spent too much of the early part of this season ******* around and finding out.

Both teams have been absurdly lucky in different ways this season. The Vikings with a number of their wins and the Packers that the other Wild Card teams decided to screw up as much as they did to even have a shot. 

For the record, the Vikings are fools gold. 

They have a crap defense and basically depend on extreme luck and/or 12pm Kirk lobbing the ball up to JJ.

The vikes have been absolutely blown out by Philly, Dallas, and now GB. They really lack quality wins too.

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5 hours ago, Striker said:

DVOA as a measurement of a team is utilized in a lot more places than just this subforum. As a note, it's also been used by folks here against the Packers to show they were fraudulent AND lucky (2019 being the most obvious example).

Plus, the Packers current record/playoff standing (which you keep bringing up as if it's relevant) really has no bearing in terms of whether or not it's a valid set of stats to use. It also doesn't invalidate any commentary folks here may have on the Vikings, who have run awfully lucky in spots this season. In a year of even just above average luck, they'd be in the 10-6 to 8-8 muddled mess of a range that most of the NFC is in right now. 

Sure, DVOA gets tossed around from time to time... and that's fine within reason.. but I think it's especially telling that the frequency has been so high over here in a season where your team has been on the outside looking in (and still is with one game left to play in the regular season). It's an especially convenient stat to cling to with your team currently being out of the playoffs whereas your rival has been pretty well set in terms of being in the playoffs for an extended period of time now. Yet DVOA tells you that your team is a top 10 unit in the NFL while the Vikings (who have spent the majority of the 2nd half of the season as the #2 seed) are a bottom 5 team in the entire league despite having been a legitimate contender for the #1 seed in the NFC. It's laughable that this sub sees no grey area and just takes it as gospel while crying out that the Vikings are just getting lucky. It's one thing to make a claim, it's another to substantiate it. I have yet to see any detail put forth to actually describe how they've been lucky as a whole despite a legitimate trend of winning across the entire season. And I mean sure, of course you can point to a handful of very poor performances by the Vikings against Philly, Dallas, and now GB... but I'm not here claiming the Vikings are the best team in the league or even the NFC. Of course they have been fallible at times.. but to give them absolutely no credit for the actual ability they have showcased to win close games is outright absurd. The fact that DVOA would label them as one of the worst units in the entire league, a worse team than average, is outright absurd. I think it bears mentioning that this team that is ranked 28th in DVOA marched right into the home of the team ranked #1 in DVOA and handed them a loss. These games are not played on the stat sheet -- there are so many more nuances than that. I can appreciate what DVOA tries to accomplish in a lot of ways, but it still an arbitrary set of metrics that doesn't account for everything. If it was a true representation, the Vikings and Packers would likely have reverse fortunes. A team doesn't go 12-4 being one of the worst units in the game. The Vikings aren't a bottom feeder team just because Football Outsiders says so. Their players, Kirk, JJ, Dalvin, and even a handful of others might have something to say about that. You'd have to wonder, too, if GB would have something to say about it. What do you think they'd rather have? A packaged deal including a guaranteed playoff spot, a guaranteed division champ title, and a guaranteed seeding no less than #3.... or simply having their neat DVOA ranking given to them through arbitrary point values assigned to stats by Football Outsiders. I don't think the answer is that difficult. Even if GB ends up somewhere in the 5-10 range for DVOA it won't mean squat if they can't beat the Lions on Sunday... meanwhile the poor little #28th ranked Minnesota Vikings can't fall lower than the #3 spot in the NFC regardless of what happens Sunday, regardless of whatever their DVOA rank is, and maybe could even be fortunate enough to secure the #2 seed again if things bounce their way. 

There is more to the Vikings than DVOA. Just because the Vikings haven't really won pretty in quite a while in addition to having a few truly rough outings this season that doesn't mean we should look down on their season... especially not in comparison to a unit in GB that very well might not even make it into the most meaningful football of the season. Of course their DVOA is going to be shoddy in light of how they've won vs a few truly bad performances, but that doesn't mean you take away from the winning nor do you take away from the actual ability to win. Claiming they're just lucky is not a rational or logical argument -- not when you're talking about a team that has faced the odds again and again and has produced a consistent winning result. While they aren't on the same level as the Cowboys, Eagles, and 49ers, the Vikings 100% belong in the playoff race and they deserve credit for getting the job done. If GB had similarly been able to get the job done they wouldn't be in the predicament that they have been. 

Good luck on Sunday. When you're sitting there watching it all unfold with a pit in your stomach you'll forget all about your DVOA ranking because in the end all that matters is who plays better in that given moment. Meanwhile the Vikings head into the last game of the regular season not needing to feel too nervous -- lucky them, right? If only DVOA were actually reflective of the fortunes and stories of what these two teams have gone through this season. In the end it might not matter at all. 

Edited by NoFlyZone
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8 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

I literally answered you about this once if not twice already in this very thread with direct quotes. I never side stepped anything, you apparently just didn’t get it (shocker). Maybe I’ll copy and paste what I said… though I shouldn’t have to do that. I think I have reiterated my point here a million different times to a multitude of different people.

I don't recall you stating how you measure a team's "grit and battle harder than most".

8 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Think the length of my posts alone should tell you I haven’t been sitting here just saying they have grit.

Using the length of your posts as an indication of your explanation isn't much.  Typing lots of words without answering a question is indeed sidestepping the question.

8 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

I think I used that word twice — if you’d bother to read at all you’d think you would be able to see that. 

You used the word (s) to explain Minnesota success yet say using Minnesota as being lucky is a lazy take.  Until you can explain how you measure/ assess a team's " grit and battle harder than most "...... that would also constitute a lazy take.

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5 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Sure, DVOA gets tossed around from time to time... and that's fine within reason.. but I think it's especially telling that the frequency has been so high over here in a season where your team has been on the outside looking in (and still is with one game left to play in the regular season). It's an especially convenient stat to cling to with your team currently being out of the playoffs whereas your rival has been pretty well set in terms of being in the playoffs for an extended period of time now. Yet DVOA tells you that your team is a top 10 unit in the NFL while the Vikings (who have spent the majority of the 2nd half of the season as the #2 seed) are a bottom 5 team in the entire league despite having been a legitimate contender for the #1 seed in the NFC. It's laughable that this sub sees no grey area and just takes it as gospel while crying out that the Vikings are just getting lucky. It's one thing to make a claim, it's another to substantiate it. I have yet to see any detail put forth to actually describe how they've been lucky as a whole despite a legitimate trend of winning across the entire season. And I mean sure, of course you can point to a handful of very poor performances by the Vikings against Philly, Dallas, and now GB... but I'm not here claiming the Vikings are the best team in the league or even the NFC. Of course they have been fallible at times.. but to give them absolutely no credit for the actual ability they have showcased to win close games is outright absurd. The fact that DVOA would label them as one of the worst units in the entire league, a worse team than average, is outright absurd. I think it bears mentioning that this team that is ranked 28th in DVOA marched right into the home of the team ranked #1 in DVOA and handed them a loss. These games are not played on the stat sheet -- there are so many more nuances than that. I can appreciate what DVOA tries to accomplish in a lot of ways, but it still an arbitrary set of metrics that doesn't account for everything. If it was a true representation, the Vikings and Packers would likely have reverse fortunes. A team doesn't go 12-4 being one of the worst units in the game. The Vikings aren't a bottom feeder team just because Football Outsiders says so. Their players, Kirk, JJ, Dalvin, and even a handful of others might have something to say about that. You'd have to wonder, too, if GB would have something to say about it. What do you think they'd rather have? A packaged deal including a guaranteed playoff spot, a guaranteed division champ title, and a guaranteed seeding no less than #3.... or simply having their neat DVOA ranking given to them through arbitrary point values assigned to stats by Football Outsiders. I don't think the answer is that difficult. Even if GB ends up somewhere in the 5-10 range for DVOA it won't mean squat if they can't beat the Lions on Sunday... meanwhile the poor little #28th ranked Minnesota Vikings can't fall lower than the #3 spot in the NFC regardless of what happens Sunday, regardless of whatever their DVOA rank is, and maybe could even be fortunate enough to secure the #2 seed again if things bounce their way. 

There is more to the Vikings than DVOA. Just because the Vikings haven't really won pretty in quite a while in addition to having a few truly rough outings this season that doesn't mean we should look down on their season... especially not in comparison to a unit in GB that very well might not even make it into the most meaningful football of the season. Of course their DVOA is going to be shoddy in light of how they've won vs a few truly bad performances, but that doesn't mean you take away from the winning nor do you take away from the actual ability to win. Claiming they're just lucky is not a rational or logical argument -- not when you're talking about a team that has faced the odds again and again and has produced a consistent winning result. While they aren't on the same level as the Cowboys, Eagles, and 49ers, the Vikings 100% belong in the playoff race and they deserve credit for getting the job done. If GB had similarly been able to get the job done they wouldn't be in the predicament that they have been. 

Good luck on Sunday. When you're sitting there watching it all unfold with a pit in your stomach you'll forget all about your DVOA ranking because in the end all that matters is who plays better in that given moment. Meanwhile the Vikings head into the last game of the regular season not needing to feel too nervous -- lucky them, right? If only DVOA were actually reflective of the fortunes and stories of what these two teams have gone through this season. In the end it might not matter at all. 

Dude, nice paragraphs but I stopped reading when I realized I'd be wasting a couple minutes of my life reading your thoughts/ideas/misgivings/rantings.  Get a job and move out of your mom's basement .. way to much time on your hands.

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14 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Ah, glad we have the forum police involved. Can’t have anything as egregious as a triple post… not on YOUR watch. Not even when responding to 2332653 different people on mobile. No sir..

Thank you for getting involved with such an important contribution.

@Packerraymond  @CWood21

At what point are all of these posts simply trolling?  

Like I don't care if he wants to post here.  But this horse was ridden to death, beaten, raised from the dead, run in the Triple Crown, beaten again, turned into glue and now the glue is being used to piece the horse back together again.

No issue with him posting...just the bombarding of posts on the same topic.

Edited by vegas492
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34 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

@Packerraymond  @CWood21

At what point are all of these posts simply trolling?  

Like I don't care if he wants to post here.  But this horse was ridden to death, beaten, raised from the dead, run in the Triple Crown, beaten again, turned into glue and now the glue is being used to piece the horse back together again.

No issue with him posting...just the bombarding of posts on the same topic.

He keeps posting he already said everything lol so stop. You said it already

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53 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

There's a direct correlation between mental peace and length of ignore list.

Both on here and in life.

xkcd: Duty Calls

I will resist my urge to be this meme and let the incredible wrongness perpetuated by the Cowboys fan die.

Edited by Striker
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11 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Sure, DVOA gets tossed around from time to time... and that's fine within reason.. but I think it's especially telling that the frequency has been so high over here in a season where your team has been on the outside looking in (and still is with one game left to play in the regular season). It's an especially convenient stat to cling to with your team currently being out of the playoffs whereas your rival has been pretty well set in terms of being in the playoffs for an extended period of time now. Yet DVOA tells you that your team is a top 10 unit in the NFL while the Vikings (who have spent the majority of the 2nd half of the season as the #2 seed) are a bottom 5 team in the entire league despite having been a legitimate contender for the #1 seed in the NFC. It's laughable that this sub sees no grey area and just takes it as gospel while crying out that the Vikings are just getting lucky. It's one thing to make a claim, it's another to substantiate it. I have yet to see any detail put forth to actually describe how they've been lucky as a whole despite a legitimate trend of winning across the entire season. And I mean sure, of course you can point to a handful of very poor performances by the Vikings against Philly, Dallas, and now GB... but I'm not here claiming the Vikings are the best team in the league or even the NFC. Of course they have been fallible at times.. but to give them absolutely no credit for the actual ability they have showcased to win close games is outright absurd. The fact that DVOA would label them as one of the worst units in the entire league, a worse team than average, is outright absurd. I think it bears mentioning that this team that is ranked 28th in DVOA marched right into the home of the team ranked #1 in DVOA and handed them a loss. These games are not played on the stat sheet -- there are so many more nuances than that. I can appreciate what DVOA tries to accomplish in a lot of ways, but it still an arbitrary set of metrics that doesn't account for everything. If it was a true representation, the Vikings and Packers would likely have reverse fortunes. A team doesn't go 12-4 being one of the worst units in the game. The Vikings aren't a bottom feeder team just because Football Outsiders says so. Their players, Kirk, JJ, Dalvin, and even a handful of others might have something to say about that. You'd have to wonder, too, if GB would have something to say about it. What do you think they'd rather have? A packaged deal including a guaranteed playoff spot, a guaranteed division champ title, and a guaranteed seeding no less than #3.... or simply having their neat DVOA ranking given to them through arbitrary point values assigned to stats by Football Outsiders. I don't think the answer is that difficult. Even if GB ends up somewhere in the 5-10 range for DVOA it won't mean squat if they can't beat the Lions on Sunday... meanwhile the poor little #28th ranked Minnesota Vikings can't fall lower than the #3 spot in the NFC regardless of what happens Sunday, regardless of whatever their DVOA rank is, and maybe could even be fortunate enough to secure the #2 seed again if things bounce their way. 

There is more to the Vikings than DVOA. Just because the Vikings haven't really won pretty in quite a while in addition to having a few truly rough outings this season that doesn't mean we should look down on their season... especially not in comparison to a unit in GB that very well might not even make it into the most meaningful football of the season. Of course their DVOA is going to be shoddy in light of how they've won vs a few truly bad performances, but that doesn't mean you take away from the winning nor do you take away from the actual ability to win. Claiming they're just lucky is not a rational or logical argument -- not when you're talking about a team that has faced the odds again and again and has produced a consistent winning result. While they aren't on the same level as the Cowboys, Eagles, and 49ers, the Vikings 100% belong in the playoff race and they deserve credit for getting the job done. If GB had similarly been able to get the job done they wouldn't be in the predicament that they have been. 

Good luck on Sunday. When you're sitting there watching it all unfold with a pit in your stomach you'll forget all about your DVOA ranking because in the end all that matters is who plays better in that given moment. Meanwhile the Vikings head into the last game of the regular season not needing to feel too nervous -- lucky them, right? If only DVOA were actually reflective of the fortunes and stories of what these two teams have gone through this season. In the end it might not matter at all. 

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