craig Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Hit rate on 2nd rounders is basically 25% and 3rd rounders is around 15%. The chance of 2 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders not contributing on average around the league is around 35%. Thanks, Alex, those are helpful. Not to go crazy detailed, but what constitutes a "hit" in this context? Obviously Jaire, Jenkins, and King are hits. Is "hit" defined by receiving a 2nd contract? Being a starter? Snaps above threshold ABC? Having some DVOA score above XYZ or something? Using a guy like Lowry, for example, would be he included on the "hit" list? 2nd contract, starter, lots of snaps, so probably yes? Or is there something more saber-filtering that would require a "hit" to be more north of average than is Lowry on the continuum from awful-to-great? I'm assuming the answer is yes, Lowry-type guys would qualify as hits, since anybody getting that many snaps is viewed as contributing? To some degree I think the 2019 draft has a chance to be a real difference-maker for the Packers. There are already 4 serious contributors and heavy-snaps guys in Gary, Savage, Jenkins, and Keke. If they come out of that draft with four hits, that could be a really franchise-impacting draft. And it's not impossible that Jace might grow into a contributor, too, he got a dozen snaps so it's premature to preclude his contribution might improve with time. He wasn't a draft pick, but one might add Lazard as a "hit" from that inexpensive player-acquisition year. He had 68 snaps. Maybe Chandon Sullivan too, lots of snaps last year, and 36 on Sunday (~70%). Lots of contributors added apart from the big-ticket FA's last year. Edited September 18, 2020 by craig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 I think the %-success viewpoint from the draft is really helpful and is essential context. At the same time, *if* you want to be an elite team, you probably need some above-average drafting success. I'm an eternal optimist, and it's premature for sure. But I'm hopeful that the Packers are stacking some high-hit drafts/UDFA/street. 2018: Jaire, MVS, hopefully Raven Greene. I'm an EQ agnostic, but I know some on board still love EQ, and perhaps in time he'll turn into a contributor, too? 2-3 hits, possibly 4 if EQ works? 2019: Gary, Savage, Jenkins, Keke, Lazard, Sullivan. Maybe in time Jace. 6 hits, possibly in time even 7? 2020: Obviously way too soon to tell. But Deguara already looks like a snaps guy; and Dillon looks pretty safe to be a share snaps guy. Love we won't know for years, obviously. Martin and Runyan, who knows. But it seems entirely plausible (yes, I'm an optimist), that we might get four contributors from the Dillon-Deguara-Kamal-Runyan sequence. Plus Love as a you-never-know wildcard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Hit rate on 2nd rounders is basically 25% and 3rd rounders is around 15%. The chance of 2 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders not contributing on average around the league is around 35%. So in other words, trade more Day 2 picks for proven players? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Hit rate on 2nd rounders is basically 25% and 3rd rounders is around 15%. The chance of 2 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders not contributing on average around the league is around 35%. What's the definition of a "hit" here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 42 minutes ago, packfanfb said: So in other words, trade more Day 2 picks for proven players? Proven players are expensive. You will in the NFL based on production above resource value. Proven players rarely get over that like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: What's the definition of a "hit" here? Want to say It was a football outsiders article. It might also have been a 5 year sampling where I just went through 5 drafts and labeled them myself. I'd be lying if I said I remembered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Good run blocking + good running creating more yards than expected= gooder running Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 “The Packers and Bakhtiari were about $4 million per year apart on a deal before the season, according to a source familiar the negotiations. Bakhtiari is seeking to match or exceed the $22 million per year that Houston's Laremy Tunsilmakes as the NFL's highest-paid tackle.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thrILL! Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: “The Packers and Bakhtiari were about $4 million per year apart on a deal before the season, according to a source familiar the negotiations. Bakhtiari is seeking to match or exceed the $22 million per year that Houston's Laremy Tunsilmakes as the NFL's highest-paid tackle.” I wanna see Packers players on the bench rush over first and pretend to be the fans spilling beer all over the Packer player who did the leap. Greatest celebration ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 4 hours ago, skibrett15 said: Good run blocking + good running creating more yards than expected= gooder running so explain it to a doofus like me... Are the Panthers or the Texans the best running team, based on that graph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 (edited) So the X axis tells you the percentage of successful run blocks from your team, whereas the Y axis indicates the progress you make for every run. There's a correlation between the two, and the straight line indicates the stimation of the success you should have according to the percentage of run blocks you perform well. Teams above the line perform better than expected, below the line they perform worse. Besides, the more to the right, the better your line run blocks. Panthers (in one game) are the best run blockers, whereas Texans are the ones who got the most success running the football. As you can imagine, with just one game played, the results will strongly depend on who you've played last weekend. Edited September 18, 2020 by VonKarman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 On 9/17/2020 at 2:47 PM, oldmansmell said: With Patrick and Turner limited today, is the Jenkins right tackle thing a long term plan? The athletic podcast guys made it sound like that was a secret they were keeping close to their chest,, and also cited his college coach who thought it was totally possible - that he would play right tackle in practice and deal with guys like Montez Sweat no problem. Would make the Wagner/Bulaga thing make a lot of sense - get someone who can maybe get us through if everything goes downhill. Better numbers than Bakh.. I believe one of his former college offensive coordinators is the Packers QB coach. So I figured they had great insight into him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 On 9/17/2020 at 2:55 PM, packfanfb said: If I'm the Packers, I'm sticking with Bakh-Jenkins-Linsley-Turner-Wagner on Sunday. Wagner held up fine at RT and we're paying the guy to start at RT. It might be a bit early, but I wouldn't mind if they explored what they might have in Runyan, especially if Turner/Patrick/etc are banged up or not 100%, you know, unless they feel that is a huge drop off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted September 19, 2020 Share Posted September 19, 2020 Packers will have to work up a new deal for Davante Adams pretty soon as well. Robert Woods just got paid. Woods and the Rams have agreed to a four-year contract extension with $32 million guaranteed and a maximum value of $68 million, according to multiple reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted September 19, 2020 Share Posted September 19, 2020 54 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said: Packers will have to work up a new deal for Davante Adams pretty soon as well. Robert Woods just got paid. Woods and the Rams have agreed to a four-year contract extension with $32 million guaranteed and a maximum value of $68 million, according to multiple reports. why? He's not a FA until after 2021, and I really don't want to give WRs third contracts. They rarely live up to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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