Cleveland Guardians Thread: CHEAP OWNERSHIP = No Hitting

[FGK]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

Hitting under .240 in AAA this year 

His K and BB rates are still excellent, his exit velocity is excellent, his babip is super low, 70 points lower than any other year in his career, and his mom has been having very serious health problems this year. Nothing is guaranteed but I feel very comfortable betting on a bounce back from Manzardo.

In a vacuum, I think we got a much more valuable asset than we gave up. But it's very frustrating because it's basically throwing in the towel on the season AND admitting that the Bell deal was idiotic from the start which most of us on here called.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Bring a prospect up, work through the bumps, get them developed and start reaping the fruits of your labor only to trade them for a prospect and wash, rinse, repeat.

 

Good times.

[AkronsWitness]

1 hour ago, FGK said:

His K and BB rates are still excellent, his exit velocity is excellent, his babip is super low, 70 points lower than any other year in his career, and his mom has been having very serious health problems this year. Nothing is guaranteed but I feel very comfortable betting on a bounce back from Manzardo.

In a vacuum, I think we got a much more valuable asset than we gave up. But it's very frustrating because it's basically throwing in the towel on the season AND admitting that the Bell deal was idiotic from the start which most of us on here called.

The Guardians have really tried the 'lets catch lightning in a bottle' technique when it comes to FAs for far too long now. This year with Bell was not the first time they have tried this.

Time to actually fix the problems, which is what I feel like this trade today finally was.

You know next season there are going to be 2-3 other random starters they bring up that turn into solid players just like Civale. Its what they do.

Edited August 1, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[MWil23]

7 hours ago, FGK said:

His K and BB rates are still excellent, his exit velocity is excellent, his babip is super low, 70 points lower than any other year in his career, and his mom has been having very serious health problems this year. Nothing is guaranteed but I feel very comfortable betting on a bounce back from Manzardo.

In a vacuum, I think we got a much more valuable asset than we gave up. But it's very frustrating because it's basically throwing in the towel on the season AND admitting that the Bell deal was idiotic from the start which most of us on here called.

TL;DR

We will always be sellers at the deadline. 

[NateDawg]

“Enjoy him while he’s here.”

Theme song here until the end of time under this ownership.

Only reason Jose is still here is because he’s cool with getting ripped off from his market value and is content for whatever reason. 

Other then that, rinse and repeat.

[FGK]

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

TL;DR

We will always be sellers at the deadline. 

The Front Office is amazing. Because they manage to get really good value despite teams having to know that with our ownership we're always selling. But yeah, until ownership changes I think it'll always be "The FO is really, really good but they're so hamstrung by ownership that it typically only leads to us being a first round post-season exit or an okay team rather than a real contender". 

Focusing on this deal apart from that big picture:

Civale is pitching way over his head this year. His stuff doesn't justify his current numbers. His babip against is insane (.242), his strand rate is one of the highest in baseball for starters over 70ip (82.7%), and his HR per FB % is unbelievable (5.2%, he's never been lower than 13% in the last three seasons). And these are all jumps that aren't really in his control, so he's aiming for massive regression. I wouldn't be AT ALL surprised if his ERA is like 3.8-4.2 the rest of the year. That said, that's still a really valuable back of the rotation arm, especially being cost-controlled for two more years after this.

Manzardo was a top 10-15 prospect according to most outlets pre-season. He's a plus player in every area except power, and even there he's slightly above average. He's got a good eye, he makes good contact, and he's a huge plus defensively at 1b. He just turned 23 this past month. He was drafted in 2021 and blew through A+ and AA in his first full year, to the tune of .327/.426/.617 with 22 HR's and 49 total XBH in 400 PA's (an XBH every 8 ABs). Pace him for 600 AB's and he was a 30 HR bat with 300/400/600 or better triple slash. Short story, he was a superstar whose only knock was playing what's seen as the least valuable position defensively speaking.

This year, Manzardo has not been good at AAA. .238/.342/.442 (let's ignore that doing that at the MLB level would make him better than Bell this year. Grrrr.) BUT, despite seeing a jump in his K rate, (16% in '22, 20.8% in '23) it's still very solid. His BB rate is still excellent (13.4%) his average exit velocity actually improved (88.2 in '22, 90.5 in '23), his BABIP is INCREDIBLY low for someone hitting the ball that hard (.269 this year, never been below .333 at any level before), and that BABIP is even more insane when you look at his batter ball percentages. The guys is hitting 30% (!!!) of his balls as line drives! Good grief! He has reduced his ground ball % at every level (35-29-26) while keeping his FB% (dingers) over 44% the whole time. I look at this batted ball data and it is a total mystery to me why he didn't IMRPOVE this year, let alone going downhill. The BABIP is the only numbers explanation I see.

There was buzz about him breaking camp with the Rays his spring was so good. Then he went to AAA and was underwhelming. Part of that is bad luck for sure, but I think we underestimate the role of real life issues for these guys, and Manzardo's mom was put on the heart transplant waiting list during spring training. All of this points to us having gotten a guy with legit offensive star player potential (think a Paul Goldschmidt type guy as far as triple slash and HRs, not an Alonso with 50HR power, but a guy who could legitimately be regularly in the .290/.380/.540 area) for a guy in Civale whose most realistic next 2-3 years is as a very good #5 starter or above average #4. 

I hate what the trade signals for the ownership and our competing this season. But I just can't hate it on the merits because I think Manzardo could be a hugely important piece for our offense starting next year. And because for God only knows what reason, our minor league system can pull serviceable starters out of thin air, but can't develop star level hitters for its life.

[mchjstnk]

1 minute ago, FGK said:

The Front Office is amazing. Because they manage to get really good value despite teams having to know that with our ownership we're always selling. But yeah, until ownership changes I think it'll always be "The FO is really, really good but they're so hamstrung by ownership that it typically only leads to us being a first round post-season exit or an okay team rather than a real contender". 

Focusing on this deal apart from that big picture:

Civale is pitching way over his head this year. His stuff doesn't justify his current numbers. His babip against is insane (.242), his strand rate is one of the highest in baseball for starters over 70ip (82.7%), and his HR per FB % is unbelievable (5.2%, he's never been lower than 13% in the last three seasons). And these are all jumps that aren't really in his control, so he's aiming for massive regression. I wouldn't be AT ALL surprised if his ERA is like 3.8-4.2 the rest of the year. That said, that's still a really valuable back of the rotation arm, especially being cost-controlled for two more years after this.

Manzardo was a top 10-15 prospect according to most outlets pre-season. He's a plus player in every area except power, and even there he's slightly above average. He's got a good eye, he makes good contact, and he's a huge plus defensively at 1b. He just turned 23 this past month. He was drafted in 2021 and blew through A+ and AA in his first full year, to the tune of .327/.426/.617 with 22 HR's and 49 total XBH in 400 PA's (an XBH every 8 ABs). Pace him for 600 AB's and he was a 30 HR bat with 300/400/600 or better triple slash. Short story, he was a superstar whose only knock was playing what's seen as the least valuable position defensively speaking.

This year, Manzardo has not been good at AAA. .238/.342/.442 (let's ignore that doing that at the MLB level would make him better than Bell this year. Grrrr.) BUT, despite seeing a jump in his K rate, (16% in '22, 20.8% in '23) it's still very solid. His BB rate is still excellent (13.4%) his average exit velocity actually improved (88.2 in '22, 90.5 in '23), his BABIP is INCREDIBLY low for someone hitting the ball that hard (.269 this year, never been below .333 at any level before), and that BABIP is even more insane when you look at his batter ball percentages. The guys is hitting 30% (!!!) of his balls as line drives! Good grief! He has reduced his ground ball % at every level (35-29-26) while keeping his FB% (dingers) over 44% the whole time. I look at this batted ball data and it is a total mystery to me why he didn't IMRPOVE this year, let alone going downhill. The BABIP is the only numbers explanation I see.

There was buzz about him breaking camp with the Rays his spring was so good. Then he went to AAA and was underwhelming. Part of that is bad luck for sure, but I think we underestimate the role of real life issues for these guys, and Manzardo's mom was put on the heart transplant waiting list during spring training. All of this points to us having gotten a guy with legit offensive star player potential (think a Paul Goldschmidt type guy as far as triple slash and HRs, not an Alonso with 50HR power, but a guy who could legitimately be regularly in the .290/.380/.540 area) for a guy in Civale whose most realistic next 2-3 years is as a very good #5 starter or above average #4. 

I hate what the trade signals for the ownership and our competing this season. But I just can't hate it on the merits because I think Manzardo could be a hugely important piece for our offense starting next year. And because for God only knows what reason, our minor league system can pull serviceable starters out of thin air, but can't develop star level hitters for its life.

To get a top 40 prospect for a #3 pitcher is amazing. Everyone is looking back and saying we should have traded rosario last year because his value was at an all time high. Well they just did that this year with a mediocre pitcher and got a top prospect. Civale can’t stay healthy at all. This was a fantastic trade. 

[candyman93]

People defend Tito too much. I’m glad a reporter actually pressed him because a lot of our fanbase sure as hell won’t.

 

 

[sdrawkcab321]

 

[candyman93]

16 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said:

 

 

[mchjstnk]

1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

 

Glad to have Josh bell off the team. Was a nice signing at the time but it didn’t work out. Glad to get out of the contract so he couldn’t opt into his next year with us 

[candyman93]

They handled the deadline correctly. Tried to get some value for the contracts they needed to move.

 

The only deal that was bad was the Rosario move. Only because Syndergaard is just a body.

 

So the only contract on the horizon to worry about is Naylor in 2026. Then you obviously have Bieber to worry about next year.

Edited August 2, 2023 by candyman93

[#32]

Cheap is as cheap does.  2023 now is an audition to see what the farm system has and who can play at the major league level.

[candyman93]

I wonder if Bieber gets moved in the off-season or not.

 

Our young pitchers will need a vet in the room.

[brooks1957]

Bingo, 32.

2023 has officially been flushed. Time to play the kids. The only way to see if they can convert from MiLB stars to serviceable MLB players is to play them at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

If, because of how crappy the AL Central is, we happen to stumble into the playoffs this season - that is an added bonus.

Browns season starts in 36 hours.

Edited August 2, 2023 by brooks1957