mistakey Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, BayRaider said: Yes but that death rate is no where near 3%, unofficial cases or not. SARS de ja vu, man. 2-3% blah blah blah. Ended up being projected at 15% a decade later, with the projected unofficial cases. diamond princess, 10 dead 597 recovered, ~100 outstanding. if every single one of the outstanding die, then youre correct. lets go with assuming 20 more people die. 30/712 = 4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, mistakey said: diamond princess, 10 dead 597 recovered, ~100 outstanding. if every single one of the outstanding die, then youre correct. lets go with assuming 20 more people die. 30/712 = 4% Right now the U.S. has 4,200 closed cases, 2,500 recovered and 1,700 died. They have 99,000 pending cases. In about 14 days, around 28,000 of those will be dead. The math has been the same for just about every country. A ship is a small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, BayRaider said: Right now the U.S. has 4,200 closed cases, 2,500 recovered and 1,700 died. They have 99,000 pending cases. In about 14 days, around 28,000 of those will be dead. The math has been the same for just about every country. A ship is a small sample size. It was 700 people. The power of that sample size is quite high. Im also guessing cruise ships tend older. The US is activelt telling people with mild symptoms to stay home and not get tested which automatically skews the numbers. sk and diamond princess most representative 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, mistakey said: It was 700 people. The power of that sample size is quite high. Im also guessing cruise ships tend older. The US is activelt telling people with mild symptoms to stay home and not get tested which automatically skews the numbers. sk and diamond princess most representative Agreed. That's probably our best sample because we actually know how many caught it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 hours ago, BayRaider said: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 17% Death Rate in Closed Cases now like several people predicted. Original Sars started at 6-7% like this one, went up to 17-18% and settled around 14%. People highly exaggerate the amount of non official mild cases that would make death rate go down. The death was never anywhere close to 3%. Maybe 8-10%. Almost everyone who has mild symptoms is getting checked out of paranoia. The CFR is far below 1% tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Ron Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 hours ago, malagabears said: Howdi all, Spanish Bears fan. Here in Spain de have been hit exceptionally hard in Madrid & Barcelona. My region of Andalucía has been spared but we still have 4277 cases. Keep safe everyone. We have been under a strict curfew for 2 weeks and have 2 more to go. Hopefully there is now light at the end of the tunnel. They are forecasting our curve to flatten in the next few days. Thinking of you and yours buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 16 hours ago, Mega Ron said: My wife started getting ill yesterday afternoon but fortunately, after a fever overnight, seems a bit better today. I've had the cough come along tonight. Great. Feel better, both you and your wife. Dealing with similar things here, no fevers yet, but a persistent (not bad cough started for me last night) and was fairly short of breathe at night...today feel better. Hard to tell allergies, (which I am prone too), stress (live that) or COVID, wife was exposed Wednesday. Not fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Ron Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) Thanks man. Same to you. I've never felt such pressure on my chest before. Or perhaps I've not paid as much attention to the symptoms with previous illnesses. Eat healthy, when you can eat, stay hydrated, get some sunlight. Edited March 28, 2020 by Mega Ron Needed an edit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 15 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: Oh for sure. People leaving the house at all right now unnecessarily is the issue. I don’t think I can be more clear about this, but unless it is absolutely necessary that you be out, you need to keep your silly arse at home. No exceptions. And people don’t get it, plain and simple. ”but this can’t be that big of a deal” is going to be our downfall. A lot of the frustration in my part of NJ and my best friends part of FL right now is there are a lot of NYC individuals still going to their second beach homes and/or winter get aways to escape. A LOT of frustrated people. One of my local eateries actually put up a sign noting they would serve NJ residents only and I kid you not the parking lot had 5 cars with NYC plates jus sitting it with the people congregated at the door waiting. Feels a bit tense in certain parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 11 hours ago, rob_shadows said: So interesting thought...with so many hospitals being at capacity what happens for pregnant women who go into labor if their hospital is over capacity? Capacity does not mean the entire hospital is full. Local hospital here is "at capacity" within the ICU area, however the rest of the hospital is actually quite empty at the moment. Obviously preparing to possibly convert sections. Labor and delivery is in a separate wing...although a lovely couple came in and did not tell anyone they were both COVID positive until AFTER the delivery. There should 100% be criminal charges for things like this. The hospital would have delivered the baby just taken extra precautions now tens of people have been exposed for no reason. Selfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acowboys62 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Mega Ron said: Thanks man. Same to you. I've never felt such pressure on my chest before. Or perhaps I've not paid as much attention to the symptoms with previous illnesses. Eat healthy, when you can eat, stay hydrated, get some sunlight. Sunlight is HUGE and yes eating healthy. I am in the same boat, I would never think twice about any current symptoms, chalk it up to allergies and keep it moving. Crazy the mental games something like this can can have on someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, mistakey said: It was 700 people. The power of that sample size is quite high. Im also guessing cruise ships tend older. The US is activelt telling people with mild symptoms to stay home and not get tested which automatically skews the numbers. sk and diamond princess most representative Yeah cruise ships are all old fat people who smoke and hang out at buffets. The average age of a passenger on Diamond Princess was 58. If you apply Diamond Princess CFR to US demographics you get a CFR well below 1%. But folks on the Diamond Princess were also repeatedly exposed to the virus likely resulting in higher viral loads and more serious illness. And not everyone on Diamond Princess was tested at the same time. There could have been other asymptomatic or mild cases out of the 3,700 passengers. So it might be even lower. I think Diamond Princess suggests with proper medical treatment the CFR is well below 1%.. maybe as low as 0.1%-0.2%. Unfortunately not everyone is going to get proper medical treatment because of healthcare system failure and lack of wide availability of therapeutics (some of the more serious DP patients got Remdeisivir and recovered which lowered the CFR potentially by a factor of 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Mega Ron said: Thanks man. Same to you. I've never felt such pressure on my chest before. Or perhaps I've not paid as much attention to the symptoms with previous illnesses. Eat healthy, when you can eat, stay hydrated, get some sunlight. take some zinc and sleep a bunch, feel better bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 46 minutes ago, mission27 said: The CFR is far below 1% tbh Any study of numbers by amateurs at this point is simply a wild guess. Testing was late and not nearly comprehensive enough. In every country there have been deaths due to Covid 19 not counted simply due to a lack of testing. Causes like pneumonia and organ failure in many cases have been categorized wrong. The U.S. seemed to employ a strategy of not testing initially so infection and death figures simply aren’t accurate. I think health organizations have a far more complete picture than any of us and their estimates of CFR are certainly higher than yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Quote NEW: CDC guidance on masks expected to change in next 10 days. Americans will be advised to wear masks in everyday life. Current recommendation is for high-risk groups only. https://mobile.twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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