Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[theJ]

20 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841

And where do people find said masks? There's a known shortage. 

[theJ]

1 hour ago, acowboys62 said:

Capacity does not mean the entire hospital is full.  Local hospital here is "at capacity" within the ICU area, however the rest of the hospital is actually quite empty at the moment.  Obviously preparing to possibly convert sections.  Labor and delivery is in a separate wing...although a lovely couple came in and did not tell anyone they were both COVID positive until AFTER the delivery.  

There should 100% be criminal charges for things like this.  The hospital would have delivered the baby just taken extra precautions now tens of people have been exposed for no reason. Selfish. 

The worst kind of people. 

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, acowboys62 said:

Capacity does not mean the entire hospital is full.  Local hospital here is "at capacity" within the ICU area, however the rest of the hospital is actually quite empty at the moment.  Obviously preparing to possibly convert sections.  Labor and delivery is in a separate wing...although a lovely couple came in and did not tell anyone they were both COVID positive until AFTER the delivery.  

There should 100% be criminal charges for things like this.  The hospital would have delivered the baby just taken extra precautions now tens of people have been exposed for no reason. Selfish. 

That is awful. 

[bucsfan333]

There are gonna be a lot of beards that disappear. And probably even more guys that refuse to shave.

[Shanedorf]

7 hours ago, N4L said:

https://www.biospace.com/article/vir-biotechnology-ids-2-monoclonal-antibodies-against-the-covid-19-coronavirus/

This company has identified an antibody that tags the virus of SARS-1 so that other cells come to kill them and realized it works for SARS-2 as well. That gives them a gigantic head start on developing a treatment / vaccine. I have been told that you cannot make the vaccine without first making the necessary antibodies to imprint it, so to speak. So this is step 1. 

All of these other malaria Ebola drugs are a pipe dream. Tweaked versions or drug cocktails containing those drugs are not / were never the answer. The answer is SARS / MERS drugs. 

3-5 months before human trials. That is very fast. this would be huge.

One thing that is so invigorating about this pandemic is that we have the totality of our collective brainpower focused soley on collectively crushing SARS-2. thats pretty cool. 

thx for posting that one.

From the linked article:

"Vir cites four possible uses of the antibodies. First, for prevention of disease. For example, in health care workers at high risk of becoming infected, or for people at high risk of severe disease or death. Second, to prevent progression of the disease in infected patients during the early phases. Third, for treatment of severe disease. And fourth, to develop vaccines."

Having an anti-virus antibody is a huge first step, but it has to pass tests on specificity, potency, binding affinity and how long it persists in the blood stream
Each of the 4 uses listed above helps and the vaccine is the most potent one of all. If you dose a patient with these anti-SARS Cov2 antibodies, it represents a small army going against a much bigger army because while the virus can replicate and make more - you only have the army you are dosed with. And its hard to give a patient a large enough dose to overcome the viral army without having significant side effects.

The vaccine on the other hand teaches your body how to make its own antibodies and then your body can make enough overcome the viral army.

Tweaked drugs and drug cocktails have an advantage over antibodies in that they are generally small molecules ( read: simple) that are easier to make and can be dosed as a pill. Whereas an antibody treatment must be dosed IV and that's a bigger challenge with an overloaded healthcare system.

There's probably not going to be a one-size- fits- all answer. Its going to be a combination of treatments, preventions etc depending on the situation and the patients. What works at a big- city hospital in Boston may differ from what works in a rural setting or a 3rd world country. We need a full arsenal.

The Gates Foundation along with WHO have rolled out the COVID -19 Therapeutic Accelerator and they are coordinating and funding these as a joint effort which leads to the last comment in your post :

"One thing that is so invigorating about this pandemic is that we have the totality of our collective brainpower focused solely on collectively crushing SARS-2. that's pretty cool"

Yes it is

[mission27]

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

Any study of numbers by amateurs at this point is simply a wild guess.

Testing was late and not nearly comprehensive enough.

In every country there have been deaths due to Covid 19 not counted simply due to a lack of testing. Causes like pneumonia and organ failure in many cases have been categorized wrong.

The U.S. seemed to employ a strategy of not testing initially so infection and death figures simply aren’t accurate.

I think health organizations have a far more complete picture than any of us and their estimates of CFR are certainly higher than yours.

 

There's a lot of disagreement on the CFR and I could be wrong for sure, 100% possible 

I'm not an epidemiologist 

But I am a numbers guy (not amateur, professional) and the models that get to a lower range on the CFR make a lot of sense to me, while the estimates that get to a high range largely rely on reported case totals only which we have very good reason to believe would systemically increase CFR estimates 

I understand the WHO is using an estimate of 3%.  The WHO's job is to raise awareness and coordinate the best possible response to this pandemic.  They are rightfully being conservative here.   But many public health experts and epidemiologists including Fauci think the number is below 1%.

Think about it this way... 

If the true CFR for those infected with the virus is 0.5% with proper medical treatment, for example, then as the sample size grows in countries around the world you might see some countries at 0.5% or a little higher (if they are testing virtually everyone with the virus and providing virtually every serious case with proper medical treatment), many countries above 0.5% (because its very hard to test everyone and some people wont get proper care in areas like Lombardy or NYC that are overwhelmed), and very few or no countries below 0.5% (because that should theoretically be the lower bound... if you're below 0.5%, you are a statistical outlier) 

The data is far from perfect but as the sample size grows in various populations I would tend to look at the lower bound of case fatality rates and assume that countries that are above this number are either a) not testing everyone or b) suffering from some level of healthcare system strain that is preventing some serious cases from getting proper treatment. 

If we look at the countries that are testing the most people and have not suffered failure of the healthcare system, like Germany and South Korea, the CFR appears to be well below 1%.  And even in these countries there is anecdotal reason to believe many asymptomatic or mild cases are not being counted... while most deaths likely are do to the aggressive public health response in these countries. 

So my guess, and it is a guess but an educated one, is CFR is well below 1% with proper treatment, which is still very scary when you consider how much more contagious this is than the flu and the fact that a 0.3% CFR or whatever would still be several times as deadly as a BAD seasonal flu, and that the particular symptoms of serious COVID cases require a lot of ventilators we don't have

[mission27]

17 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

thx for posting that one.

From the linked article:

"Vir cites four possible uses of the antibodies. First, for prevention of disease. For example, in health care workers at high risk of becoming infected, or for people at high risk of severe disease or death. Second, to prevent progression of the disease in infected patients during the early phases. Third, for treatment of severe disease. And fourth, to develop vaccines."

Having an anti-virus antibody is a huge first step, but it has to pass tests on specificity, potency, binding affinity and how long it persists in the blood stream
Each of the 4 uses listed above helps and the vaccine is the most potent one of all. If you dose a patient with these anti-SARS Cov2 antibodies, it represents a small army going against a much bigger army because while the virus can replicate and make more - you only have the army you are dosed with. And its hard to give a patient a large enough dose to overcome the viral army without having significant side effects.

The vaccine on the other hand teaches your body how to make its own antibodies and then your body can make enough overcome the viral army.

Tweaked drugs and drug cocktails have an advantage over antibodies in that they are generally small molecules ( read: simple) that are easier to make and can be dosed as a pill. Whereas an antibody treatment must be dosed IV and that's a bigger challenge with an overloaded healthcare system.

There's probably not going to be a one-size- fits- all answer. Its going to be a combination of treatments, preventions etc depending on the situation and the patients. What works at a big- city hospital in Boston may differ from what works in a rural setting or a 3rd world country. We need a full arsenal.

The Gates Foundation along with WHO have rolled out the COVID -19 Therapeutic Accelerator and they are coordinating and funding these as a joint effort which leads to the last comment in your post :

"One thing that is so invigorating about this pandemic is that we have the totality of our collective brainpower focused solely on collectively crushing SARS-2. that's pretty cool"

Yes it is

Yep this is why we aren't headed to another 1918

We may finally be seeing the full power of the quantum leap in communication that is the internet to have a real impact on historical events, on a global scale

[mission27]

9 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Yep this is why we aren't headed to another 1918

We may finally be seeing the full power of the quantum leap in communication that is the internet to have a real impact on historical events, on a global scale

Although tbh, I'd argue the MoL smugness thread had a bigger impact on the world, all things considered

@TLO

[mission27]

1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841

tbh this is a great of example of what mission has been saying all along

CDC, WHO, etc. are going to tell us what they think will lead to optimal public health response, NOT necessarily what they think is true

I'm not saying they are wrong or do that or that there's some massive conspiracy 

they are just being practical and doing their jobs 

the 'masks dont work at all' line was clearly meant to avoid average people hoarding masks that hospitals need... it was never true

just like the 3% CFR is not true... but if they quote a CFR based on known cases, it makes people take this seriously, in a way they probably wouldnt if we said the number was 0.3% instead

[candyman93]

18 minutes ago, mission27 said:

tbh this is a great of example of what mission has been saying all along

CDC, WHO, etc. are going to tell us what they think will lead to optimal public health response, NOT necessarily what they think is true

I'm not saying they are wrong or do that or that there's some massive conspiracy 

they are just being practical and doing their jobs 

the 'masks dont work at all' line was clearly meant to avoid average people hoarding masks that hospitals need... it was never true

just like the 3% CFR is not true... but if they quote a CFR based on known cases, it makes people take this seriously, in a way they probably wouldnt if we said the number was 0.3% instead

This is just a counter argument I saw regarding masks:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html#click=https://t.co/TGMn6usbiA

[JDBrocks]

The Army Corps of Engineers is turning McCormick Place in Chicago into a COVID hospital. It's the largest convention center in North America and will provide an extra 3000 beds. It won't be ready until 4/24, and while something is better than nothing, Chicago is probably going to be overwhelmed long before then.

[diehardlionfan]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

There's a lot of disagreement on the CFR and I could be wrong for sure, 100% possible 

I'm not an epidemiologist 

But I am a numbers guy (not amateur, professional) and the models that get to a lower range on the CFR make a lot of sense to me, while the estimates that get to a high range largely rely on reported case totals only which we have very good reason to believe would systemically increase CFR estimates 

I understand the WHO is using an estimate of 3%.  The WHO's job is to raise awareness and coordinate the best possible response to this pandemic.  They are rightfully being conservative here.   But many public health experts and epidemiologists including Fauci think the number is below 1%.

Think about it this way... 

If the true CFR for those infected with the virus is 0.5% with proper medical treatment, for example, then as the sample size grows in countries around the world you might see some countries at 0.5% or a little higher (if they are testing virtually everyone with the virus and providing virtually every serious case with proper medical treatment), many countries above 0.5% (because its very hard to test everyone and some people wont get proper care in areas like Lombardy or NYC that are overwhelmed), and very few or no countries below 0.5% (because that should theoretically be the lower bound... if you're below 0.5%, you are a statistical outlier) 

The data is far from perfect but as the sample size grows in various populations I would tend to look at the lower bound of case fatality rates and assume that countries that are above this number are either a) not testing everyone or b) suffering from some level of healthcare system strain that is preventing some serious cases from getting proper treatment. 

If we look at the countries that are testing the most people and have not suffered failure of the healthcare system, like Germany and South Korea, the CFR appears to be well below 1%.  And even in these countries there is anecdotal reason to believe many asymptomatic or mild cases are not being counted... while most deaths likely are do to the aggressive public health response in these countries. 

So my guess, and it is a guess but an educated one, is CFR is well below 1% with proper treatment, which is still very scary when you consider how much more contagious this is than the flu and the fact that a 0.3% CFR or whatever would still be several times as deadly as a BAD seasonal flu, and that the particular symptoms of serious COVID cases require a lot of ventilators we don't have

Thanks, I understand your view now.

I think this way.

All data currently available is inaccurate and incomplete. Personally I dismiss any data coming out of China. The entire Chinese position seems to be one of politics, not facts.

Deaths that occur due to system limitation are still deaths as a result of the virus. It may increase the CFR but it’s the only measure we have and seasonal flus never overwhelm healthcare systems to the level we see with Covid 19. 

Some countries due to immediate testing were far more successful at containing transmission chains so they are far ahead of the rest from a containment and control aspect.

some countries were/are in denial. It’s allowed deaths to be improperly categorized, increased transmission and created a host of problems.

I’m very skeptical about U.S. numbers right now especially deaths. 

Im enjoying your posts so keep them coming.

 

[vike daddy]

51 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

The Army Corps of Engineers is turning McCormick Place in Chicago into a COVID hospital. It's the largest convention center in North America and will provide an extra 3000 beds. It won't be ready until 4/24, and while something is better than nothing, Chicago is probably going to be overwhelmed long before then.

let's hope part of it does not need to be converted to a morgue, but it could be the case.

[FinneasGage]

is this trending better than two weeks ago or is it still getting worse? 

[PARROTHEAD]

People sat around early at the local Family Dollar here and ambushed the delivery truck. Police were called into action to break it up. Then police spent the rest of the day running mob control so the truck could be unloaded, the shelves stocked and prevent a Black Friday type stamped through the store.