Trey Lance might be the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft...

[Tetsujin]

4 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

My thoughts as well.  I think Lance could really be a great NFL QB, but he's not a guy you can expect to be there right out of the gate.  He's gonna take some time.  That wait very likely could be worth it, though.  I like him a lot more than Jordan Love last year, as a similar kind of "tooled-up but raw" QB prospect.

He needs to go to a quality franchise. 

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2020/10/03/trey-lance-is-not-a-1st-round-pick-in-the-2021-draft/

I'm interested in feedback on this take...

It’s more about Lance’s tools to be honest, his toolset is right there with guys like Josh Allen. Even better toolset tbh, slightly lesser arm (rocket arm though) but definitely better with his legs. 
 

Plus it’s not like Lance hasn’t balled out and shown what he can do. He had 28 TDs, 0 INTs, super nice deep ball, and great with his legs in 2019. Yes it was Division II, and he needs development in the NFL, but the guy has proven he is a very smart football player and understands football. 

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, BayRaider said:

It’s more about Lance’s tools to be honest, his toolset is right there with guys like Josh Allen. Even better toolset tbh, slightly lesser arm (rocket arm though) but definitely better with his legs. 

The only concern I have is that while there's a chance he can be the next Josh Allen or Cam Newton, there's also a chance he can be the next Jake Locker or Josh Freeman. 

[sp6488]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

The only concern I have is that while there's a chance he can be the next Josh Allen or Cam Newton, there's also a chance he can be the next Jake Locker or Josh Freeman. 

One difference on these comparisons is that Locker and Freeman were guys at middling teams in power conferences who people overlooked flaws in their games/production due to circumstances around them. For example, in their best seasons, Freeman and Locker had YPAs of 7.7 and 7.1, respectively. For comparison, Lance was at 9.7 in 2019. 

[sp6488]

11 hours ago, OkeyDoke21 said:

McLance 

Really hope he doesn't turn into ONLY Donovan McNabb...

[NYRaider]

23 minutes ago, sp6488 said:

One difference on these comparisons is that Locker and Freeman were guys at middling teams in power conferences who people overlooked flaws in their games/production due to circumstances around them. For example, in their best seasons, Freeman and Locker had YPAs of 7.7 and 7.1, respectively. For comparison, Lance was at 9.7 in 2019. 

That's true but we at least had a ton of film of those guys going up against top competition. And the YPA doesn't really show much because Freeman/Locker both had mediocre supporting casts around them in Power 5 conferences while Lance has the most talented supporting cast in D2 football playing against sub par competition. 

When you look at how he wrapped up his final 5 games of the 2019 season and his lone game in 2020: 

69/121 (57%), 894 yards (7.3 ypa), 7 TD, 1 INT 

That's only 149 passing yards per game over his last 6 starts. And in each of those games he had one explosive play that accounted for a huge chunk of his production: 23 yard pass against Central Arkansas, 22 yard pass against JMU, 75 yard pass against MTST, 55 yard pass against ILST, 43 yard pass against NICH, and a 20 yard pass against SIU. 

If you remove those 6 throws his numbers drop to: 

63/115 (55%), 656 yards (5.6 ypa), 109 yards per game 

Edited October 6, 2020 by NYRaider

[OkeyDoke21]

10 hours ago, NYRaider said:

That's true but we at least had a ton of film of those guys going up against top competition. And the YPA doesn't really show much because Freeman/Locker both had mediocre supporting casts around them in Power 5 conferences while Lance has the most talented supporting cast in D2 football playing against sub par competition. 

When you look at how he wrapped up his final 5 games of the 2019 season and his lone game in 2020: 

69/121 (57%), 894 yards (7.3 ypa), 7 TD, 1 INT 

That's only 149 passing yards per game over his last 6 starts. And in each of those games he had one explosive play that accounted for a huge chunk of his production: 23 yard pass against Central Arkansas, 22 yard pass against JMU, 75 yard pass against MTST, 55 yard pass against ILST, 43 yard pass against NICH, and a 20 yard pass against SIU. 

If you remove those 6 throws his numbers drop to: 

63/115 (55%), 656 yards (5.6 ypa), 109 yards per game 

NDSU is D1, not D2.  They’re FCS.  Their wrestling program is a member of the Big12. 

[Danger]

I don't for the life of me understand why NDSU won't just man up and join the FBS already.

[MSURacerDT55]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

I don't for the life of me understand why NDSU won't just man up and join the FBS already.

For the risk of being exposed against superior athletes, superior resources, with superior recruiting pools. Why risk the edge they have to become a middle of the pack program in a higher division, when they can continue to attract FBS talent to dominate on the FCS level?

[MWil23]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

I don't for the life of me understand why NDSU won't just man up and join the FBS already.

 

15 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

For the risk of being exposed against superior athletes, superior resources, with superior recruiting pools. Why risk the edge they have to become a middle of the pack program in a higher division, when they can continue to attract FBS talent to dominate on the FCS level?

It's the same reason that Mount Union won't go from D-III any time soon. 

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, OkeyDoke21 said:

NDSU is D1, not D2.  They’re FCS.  Their wrestling program is a member of the Big12. 

It’s still a step down in competition. 

[NYRaider]

Lance has officially declared for the draft. 

[NYRaider]

I watched 5 games of Lance today: vs Western Illinois (11/9/19), vs South Dakota State (11/16/19), vs Middle Tennessee State (12/21/19), vs James Madison (1/11/20), and vs Central Arkansas (10/3/2020). 

He's a great athlete and effective runner for sure. But he has a long way to go as a passer before he's ready to be an NFL starter. He has a cannon arm and definitely makes some throws that make you go "wow" but his ball placement and accuracy are all over the place. In the 5 games I watched I only saw 3 plays that were high level NFL throws. And the majority of his passes were screens, check downs, or to wide open receivers. 

NDSU's system did an excellent job of scheming guys open. And it was designed so that he could make one read and throw or look to take off scrambling. 

I'd probably put a late 1st/early 2nd round grade on him because of his size, athleticism, and arm strength. But to me he looks more like an athlete playing QB then a developed passer and is going to need to sit for 1-2 years, clean up his mechanics, and learn how to read defenses before he'll ever be successful in the league. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by NYRaider

[Johnny Nix]

I don’t see it. I think he’s an extremely raw prospect. My money is he’s a 3rd rounder. 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

On 10/6/2020 at 8:55 AM, Danger said:

I don't for the life of me understand why NDSU won't just man up and join the FBS already.

I am an NDSU alum and live in ND and this idea is pretty common through the fan base. But as I understand it the choice is not up to NDSU. They would need an invite and even then the media market is small and their stadium is too small. So a lot of things are preventing them from moving up most of which is not in their control. It’s not the big fish in a small pond syndrome some make it out to be.