2021 NFL Draft Thread

[MacReady]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

Interesting!  Those were all AND not OR things, as I read you!  :):). So you might already have sworn off Gute and be Outpost312 with 52 hours.  

I said Outpost312.0

The update.

[HighCalebR]

43 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

If the Packers don’t trade up in this draft, extend/restructure Rodgers, make one significant free agent signing after the draft AND make an in-season trade or free agent signing, I will swear off Gute for life and become Outpost312.0

That or I’ll just quit football again.

Throughout his presser he kept talking about the shallowness of the draft, how they're carrying more guys going into the draft this year and how uncertain the later rounds were. I gotta believe we're planning on moving upwards this year and not having 10+ guys incoming.

[CWood21]

44 minutes ago, craig said:

In this one, he's pretty open about his interest to trade up.  For a guy who he really likes, and looks to be a difference-maker for this team.  I don't blame him, really.  Several posters have tossed out numbers like 23 for first-tier players.   *IF* the Packers have that kind of a grouping, and their group is dwindling fast, suppose there's one that they think is both at the high tier AND fits one of our needs (such that the guy may be a difference-maker for us by year two if not sooner).   *If* you can snag that guy by moving up 3-4 spots, at the cost of a 4th, how would I blame him?   But the draft has it's own unique flow, so that may not happen at all; has to be the right player, at the right cost.  

Obviously it's all about the scouting, and scouting accurately.  It always is, whether trading up or down.  Think trading up for Spriggs was smart? oops!  Thought trading up for Matthews was smart; brilliant.  But I think Gute trusts his scouting enough to make those moves.  

There's usually always a few guys that the Packers may not grade as first round talents that end up going before the Packers.  I'd imagine 22-26 is that sweet spot for trade up range.  Their FRP plus 3rd round pick likely gets them into that 22/23 range, but their pair of 4th round picks likely gets them into that 25/26 range.  They usually make draft day deals with Seattle, although they've made one with Miami for Jordan Love.  If they don't trade up in the first round, I'd put good money on them moving up in the second round with Seattle.

[R T]

35 minutes ago, craig said:

https://www.packers.com/video/brian-gutekunst-we-ve-been-knocking-on-the-door-for-two-years-and-we-d-like-to-f

Not sure if this was linked, but the full Gute interview from yesterday.  

In this one, he's pretty open about his interest to trade up.  For a guy who he really likes, and looks to be a difference-maker for this team.  I don't blame him, really.  Several posters have tossed out numbers like 23 for first-tier players.   *IF* the Packers have that kind of a grouping, and their group is dwindling fast, suppose there's one that they think is both at the high tier AND fits one of our needs (such that the guy may be a difference-maker for us by year two if not sooner).   *If* you can snag that guy by moving up 3-4 spots, at the cost of a 4th, how would I blame him?   But the draft has it's own unique flow, so that may not happen at all; has to be the right player, at the right cost.  

Obviously it's all about the scouting, and scouting accurately.  It always is, whether trading up or down.  Think trading up for Spriggs was smart? oops!  Thought trading up for Matthews was smart; brilliant.  But I think Gute trusts his scouting enough to make those moves.  

I was trying to find the tweet I read today craig from someone concerning 1st round grades by teams this year. I thought it was Tom Pelissero, but I could not find it on his account. Whoever the NFL media guy was stated that he had spoke with several GM's and they all had 1st round grades on only 13-17 this year. Also Ian Rapoport reported that trade talks in the 1st round this year is much calmer than most years. Reason? Teams are not interested to trade up to where the top talent is still out of reach. Many teams throughout the 1st round would like to trade back, but there may be few teams wanting to trade up.  

So with that in mind I am thinking Gutes may be sitting still and drafting at 29, especially if he has only 13-17 players with a 1st round grade.     

[craig]

Thanks, RT.  Yeah, if he's got ≤17 guys in his upper tier, the odds that any of them will still be hanging out at pick 25/26 where a 4th rounder might get him, that seems unlikely.  Even if it's 17 for Gute, there's still a fair chance that one of those would be hanging still at 21 or 22, areas where perhaps a 3rd might get you.  But yeah, it's totally about the evaluation.  

Gute was not really all that negative about the draft class.  He said it was a pretty good class.  So he didn't really seem to be reinforcing a narrative that this was a bad class, or a shallow class during the actual draft.  He did acknowledge that it might be thin on UDFA.  

I liked a phrase he used, "thinking about how they could affect your football team".  There's some acknowledgement of fit, and perhaps of need, in that.  Later on he was asked about need, and he was also OK with acknowledging what Ted had said in years past, that need can factor as a tiebreaker.  That's always my feel, that need works as a tiebreaker; and that sometimes you trade around to position yourself such that BPA can marry need.    

[packfanfb]

He picked Bateman. For once, I wouldn't mind Bob being right.

[R T]

15 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks, RT.  Yeah, if he's got ≤17 guys in his upper tier, the odds that any of them will still be hanging out at pick 25/26 where a 4th rounder might get him, that seems unlikely.  Even if it's 17 for Gute, there's still a fair chance that one of those would be hanging still at 21 or 22, areas where perhaps a 3rd might get you.  But yeah, it's totally about the evaluation.  

Gute was not really all that negative about the draft class.  He said it was a pretty good class.  So he didn't really seem to be reinforcing a narrative that this was a bad class, or a shallow class during the actual draft.  He did acknowledge that it might be thin on UDFA.  

I liked a phrase he used, "thinking about how they could affect your football team".  There's some acknowledgement of fit, and perhaps of need, in that.  Later on he was asked about need, and he was also OK with acknowledging what Ted had said in years past, that need can factor as a tiebreaker.  That's always my feel, that need works as a tiebreaker; and that sometimes you trade around to position yourself such that BPA can marry need.    

I believe his wording on the UDFA's was that 'they would need to be more selective', but I took that as being because their roster is already at 72 players and with 10 +/- draft picks that only leaves 8 potential spots for UDFA signings. Most years they sign 15-20 UDFA's after the draft concludes.  

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, craig said:

 

Gute was not really all that negative about the draft class.  He said it was a pretty good class.  So he didn't really seem to be reinforcing a narrative that this was a bad class, or a shallow class during the actual draft.  He did acknowledge that it might be thin on UDFA.  

 

He literally said its "basically strong at the top" and "there isnt a specifically deep position group like there has been in years past"

He does feel like they have a strong board throughout but will be basically forced to draft players he hasn't watched, specifically the third day guys. And there is an amount of apprehension that comes with that even though he completely trusts his staff.

[cannondale]

To take it one step further, if the draft isn't very deep, is Walker Little really any good ? I was already wondering that to be honest. But at the end of the day, guys at premium spots, we don't really know 

[Rodjahs12]

3 minutes ago, cannondale said:

To take it one step further, if the draft isn't very deep, is Walker Little really any good ? I was already wondering that to be honest. But at the end of the day, guys at premium spots, we don't really know 

If Little is the same player he was the last time he played, he’s going to be a massive steal for whoever gets him day 3. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll look like after the layoff though 

[cannondale]

5 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

If Little is the same player he was the last time he played, he’s going to be a massive steal for whoever gets him day 3. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll look like after the layoff though 

That's what everyone keeps saying and that's the quandry for me. Day 3 LT (premium position) that everyone thinks will be a steal ?? Then he should go on Day 2 if it's a weak draft. And maybe he will. It doesn't feel right to me 

Edited April 28, 2021 by cannondale

[Rodjahs12]

6 minutes ago, cannondale said:

That's what everyone keeps saying and that's the quandry for me. Day 3 LT (premium position) that everyone thinks will be a steal ?? Then he should go on Day 2 if it's a weak draft. And maybe he will. It doesn't feel right to me 

The depth of this tackle class definitely serves to push him down further than he'd otherwise be. I'd be a lot happier with him at 93 than someone like Liam Eichenberg or Brady Christensen at 62. Just my opinion though.

[R T]

Walker Little will probably go much higher than the general public is guessing right now. He was the top HS recruit in the nation coming out and played like it his first season. He has elite feet and may have been the best pass blocker in college. Preseason mocks last August often had him going in the top of the first round. He didn't play a snap and now people think he is day 3? Not happening, if he is still on the board for the Packers at 62 it would be an amazing gift for them. 

[Leader]

And then it was a day away......
Jacksonville is on the clock.

[Brit Pack]

So weird, the day before the draft, I would normally be so pumped and on edge. I would be mentally building up for the draft a few weeks ago and just waiting for the day for it all to kick off. This year, maybe because of no combine, or just that weeks seem to fly bye the older I get, I'm so non-pulsed. The draft could be another four weeks away and I could survive easily without the fix. Strange...