The Carr dilemma in 2021

[Frankie2Gunz]

12 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I agree with this but just see it from the other side.  This whole Carr argument is mostly, 95% of the posters, two groups seeing the argument from a risk averse or risk seeking point of view.  Almost nobody is arguing what Carr is but rather if they want to to build around him or someone else.  This argument has dragged on for years now.  Carr will be our QB next year and I am 99% certain he gives us our best chance to win next year but I also believe 3 years from now we have a chance to be drastically better or worse team if we move on from him now.  I do not think Carr is a good fit for Gruden's offense and believe for us to win a championship one of them needs to go or adapt.  As far as QBs to replace Carr the best options would be to keep Mariota, try a reclamation project like Trubisky, or sign a vet like Fitzpatrick for two years and let Gruden draft a QB that best suits his system.  It would take at least 2 years to get back to were we are now unless we are insanely lucky but we could focus on building the team around the QBOTF before we throw him to the wolves or give him a large contract.  Maybe we have a 2-3 win season and get a QB in the top 5 but it is still going to suck as fans for a couple year.  We can play it safe and be a playoff or take a chance to be a top 5 drafting team to a Super Bowl contender.

A few things.  All of the QB's you mentioned are bums, Fitz is at best average and will be 39 next season.  Drafting a QB in the top 5 is always a risky proposition just ask Miami who just drafted and elite, generational, can't miss talent according to all the talking head shills and 99.9 percent of you posters on this website.  Now look what they're stuck with and more than likely the move to insert him as the starter cost them a playoff spot this year and every year they continue to stick with him will be a waste because he in not a good QB.

I have said in numerous posts Carr has 5 or 6 very good years left and he is currently on a friendly contract.  I would not be opposed to drafting a project QB in the 4th or beyond for the next few years until we can find someone to replace Carr when his skills start to diminish or if that late round pick turn out to be Russell Wilson.  Investing late round picks in order to find a replacement QB is not much ventured in terms of draft capital as most players from the 4th and beyond turn out to be bums 95 percent of the time, so missing and moving on from them is not an issue.  If we draft a QB late and he sucks, you move on to the next until you find one that is good. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[Jerry]

 

[MrOaktown_56]

12 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I keep saying this but we are going to look stupid if we give him a good contract.  The top players are going to get paid but the 2nd 3rd 4th tier guys are going to take less.  We are going to loss 15% of the expected cap if it goes down to $175 million.  Every team is losing enough money to sign 2-3 quality players and you think Agholor is going to get $10 million.  That would make him close to a top 20 WR which he is not.  If Williams does not go down or we draft Lamb then Agholor does not have half the season he just did.  He played well for us and I am not against bringing him back but he is not close to being worth $10 million to use.

He is one of the best deep threats in the NFL right now and can be even better. I don't want to give him 2-20, but if you think the offense will be better without him, you have more faith than I do.

[Humble_Beast]

I definitely want Nellie back unless we upgrade to Kenny G or Robinson... if Nellie is gone, putting pressure on Ruggs and Edwards to perform. Sign Agholor to a 2-3 year deal, by 2023-24 Ruggs and Edwards should be hitting their prime. 

[drfrey13]

42 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

He is one of the best deep threats in the NFL right now and can be even better. I don't want to give him 2-20, but if you think the offense will be better without him, you have more faith than I do.

I do not think the offense would be better without him because clearly there is a connection between him and Carr but I think the team would be better without him if he we have to sign him for $8-10 million and when we could use the money on defense.  Now this is assuming that Bradley and Mayock can succeed in FA.  We need to cut Williams to free up cash but if we just role most of it to Agholor then we are staying the same as last year.  Now I would like to resign Agholor but at a reduced rate.  I would not be surprised if he signs a reduced 1 year deal in hopes of repeating what he did this past year and teams having an extra $30 million in cap to spend next year.  2022 will most likely be the year to cash in and there will be a lot of good talent taking 1 year deals this year.  I am not against Agholor but also think that if Carr does not have him he will be forced to give the ball to Edwards and Ruggs.  They both will be better equipped to fill in the gap in year 2.  Also I do not think many in here realized that Ruggs had a higher catch rate and close to the same Y/C as Agholor.  He just had half the opportunities.  If Ruggs could duplicate Agholor's production, which he should, and we cut Williams then we are half way to signing LW.  

[true2form]

19 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Jack Del Rio's 3 seasons: 25-23 (52% win) 

2015 - Offense: 333 ypg (17th), 22.4 ppg (17th) | Defense: 363 ypg (22nd), 24.9 ppg (22nd)

2016 - Offense: 373 ypg (6th), 26.0 ppg (7th) | Defense: 375 ypg (26th), 24.1 ppg (20th)

2017 - Offense: 324 ypg (17th), 18.8 ppg (23rd) | Defense: 350 ypg (23rd), 23.3 ppg (20th)

Jon Gruden's 3 seasons: 19-29 (39% win)

2018 - Offense: 336 ypg (23rd), 18.1 ppg (28th) | Defense: 381 ypg (26th), 29.2 ppg (32nd)

2019 -  Offense: 363 ypg (11th), 19.6 ppg (24th) | Defense: 354 ypg (19th), 26.2 ppg (24th)

2020 - Offense: 383 ypg (8th), 27.1 ppg (10th) | Defense: 389 ypg (25th), 29.8 ppg (30th) 

Understanding is key.  My point was we have improved from year 1 with Gruden to year 3 with Gruden.  That is reflected in the offensive stats and win/loss record. I wasn't comparing Gruden to Del Rio or Tampa days or previous run with the Raiders.  Focused on the here and now.

You also left out the second part in the quote about the defense, which clearly hasn't improved. Everyone knows that.

Since you stated nothing, but stats, I have no clue if you're agreeing or disagreeing or what.

[Turnobili]

there's no dilemma here. Carr has played at a high level the last couple of years. Gruyock has just failed at building the team. and you dont even have to look to the defense to see that.

Even the run game on offense underperformed this year.

All the resources we've put into the WR position since Gruden took over:

- multiple draft picks used to trade for receivers.. AB, Martavis Bryant, Zay Jones, Trevor Davis
- money spent on FA wide receivers (Jordy, Tyrell Wililams)
- multiple draft picks (Renfrow, Ruggs, Edwards, Ateman)

and the best guy we've come away with from all that is Nelson Agholor and Darren Waller who were low end fliers at the time. not to mention featuring Jason Witten as much as they did.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Turnobili

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

there's no dilemma here. Carr has played at a high level the last couple of years. Gruyock has just failed at building the team.

Failed at building the defense. They've done just fine putting the pieces around Carr for him to succeed in Gruden's offense. 

[Turnobili]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Failed at building the defense. They've done just fine putting the pieces around Carr for him to succeed in Gruden's offense. 

i edited my post. they've even bungled the offense in large part

Edited January 22, 2021 by Turnobili

[drfrey13]

12 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

A few things.  All of the QB's you mentioned are bums, Fitz is at best average and will be 39 next season.  Drafting a QB in the top 5 is always a risky proposition just ask Miami who just drafted and elite, generational, can't miss talent according to all the talking head shills and 99.9 percent of you posters on this website.  Now look what they're stuck with and more than likely the move to insert him as the starter cost them a playoff spot this year and every year they continue to stick with him will be a waste because he in not a good QB.

I have said in numerous posts Carr has 5 or 6 very good years left and he is currently on a friendly contract.  I would not be opposed to drafting a project QB in the 4th or beyond for the next few years until we can find someone to replace Carr when his skills start to diminish or if that late round pick turn out to be Russell Wilson.  Investing late round picks in order to find a replacement QB is not much ventured in terms of draft capital as most players from the 4th and beyond turn out to be bums 95 percent of the time, so missing and moving on from them is not an issue.  If we draft a QB late and he sucks, you move on to the next until you find one that is good. 

I said it will suck for a couple years but hopefully  we will be better in 3 years in a previous post.   I do not think those 3 QBs are better than Carr but are better fits in Gruden's system.  We may not win a lot but the games would be entertaining especially with Fitz.  I am not against drating a mid round pick to develop behind Carr.  It is a safe way to hedge our bets but less likely to produce a QB better than Carr.  Brady, Cousins, Wilson, Carr, Mullens, Minshew, Fitzpatrick, and Prescott where taken outside the first.  How many of those are you taking over Carr?  I would take 2 for sure and possibly Dak.  If you count Dak you average 1 QB every ten years that is better than Carr taken outside the first.  I am not against trying but the chances are slim.

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

Even the run game on offense underperformed this year.

All the resources we've put into the WR position since Gruden took over:

- multiple draft picks used to trade for receivers.. AB, Martavis Bryant, Zay Jones, Trevor Davis
- money spent on FA wide receivers (Jordy, Tyrell Wililams)
- multiple draft picks (Renfrow, Ruggs, Edwards, Ateman)

The running game underperformed and Jacobs was still 8th in the league in yards and 3rd in the league in TD. IIRC he's like the first RB we've had in 30 years to have back to back 1,000+ rushing yard seasons. Our run blocking took a major step back this year without Richie and Trent plus Jacobs was banged up throughout the year and didn't have nearly as many explosive big runs. 

We've definitely neglected the defense in favor of adding weapons. That was one of Al Davis biggest problems at the end of his time running the team. He tried to build around skill position players as opposed to building in the trenches, especially defensively. Gruden has done the same thing. 

Renfrow was a good investment and Ruggs/Edwards have flashed enough to give me confidence they'll both make a leap next season. 

But yeah it's sad to see how bad we've neglected building the defense. As I've said before we were willing to trade a 3rd/5th for a WR multiple times when we traded for Bryant and Brown. Neither one of them ever even really played or made an impact for us. We were also willing to spend two 3rd's on Tanner Muse and Lynn Bowden, neither of whom played a snap for us, and Muse might not even make the team next year. But we wouldn't pull the trigger on a deal with the Jets for Leonard Williams when the asking price was only a 3rd/5th. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

I said it will suck for a couple years but hopefully  we will be better in 3 years in a previous post.   I do not think those 3 QBs are better than Carr but are better fits in Gruden's system.  We may not win a lot but the games would be entertaining especially with Fitz.  I am not against drating a mid round pick to develop behind Carr.  It is a safe way to hedge our bets but less likely to produce a QB better than Carr.  Brady, Cousins, Wilson, Carr, Mullens, Minshew, Fitzpatrick, and Prescott where taken outside the first.  How many of those are you taking over Carr?  I would take 2 for sure and possibly Dak.  If you count Dak you average 1 QB every ten years that is better than Carr taken outside the first.  I am not against trying but the chances are slim.

I've posted a list of QB's taken in the 1st over the last 10 years that I would take over Carr and there are 3.  Mahomes, Watson and Luck.  

I would rather risk draft capital in the later rounds and develop a Qb rather than spend a 1st on a QB when the odds are clearly in the favor of that player not being an improvement over Carr.  Not only are the odds in favor of that QB not being as good as Carr but risking a 1st on a QB on a team that has massive holes to fill, at multiple positions, is not smart football or business considering the bust rate for 1st round QB's.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[Jerry]

39 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

I've posted a list of QB's taken in the 1st over the last 10 years that I would take over Carr and there are 3.  Mahomes, Watson and Luck.  

I would rather risk draft capital in the later rounds and develop a Qb rather than spend a 1st on a QB when the odds are clearly in the favor of that player not being an improvement over Carr.  Not only are the odds in favor of that QB not being as good as Carr but risking a 1st on a QB on a team that has massive holes to fill, at multiple positions, is not smart football or business considering the bust rate for 1st round QB's.

Tannehill and Josh Allen.  I would honestly be completely okay with them in place of DC.

[Frankie2Gunz]

47 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Tannehill and Josh Allen.  I would honestly be completely okay with them in place of DC.

Tannehill was terrible on Miami where had a similar set of skill players as DC has had with the Raiders. I would put DC ahead of him because of this. 

Allen has looked fantastic this year but this is his first year playing at high level.  There have been many QB's who have shown flashes for one year and fizzled out so I am not ready to put him ahead of Carr quite yet.  I need a larger sample size and to see how Allen plays when faced with adversity.  Carr has played in the face of adversity his whole career with a D that cant stop a high school team and a laundry list of trash weapons on O.  

[Jerry]

12 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Tannehill was terrible on Miami where had a similar set of skill players as DC has had with the Raiders. I would put DC ahead of him because of this. 

Allen has looked fantastic this year but this is his first year playing at high level.  There have been many QB's who have shown flashes for one year and fizzled out so I am not ready to put him ahead of Carr quite yet.  I need a larger sample size and to see how Allen plays when faced with adversity.  Carr has played in the face of adversity his whole career with a D that cant stop a high school team and a laundry list of trash weapons on O.  

I agree with your assessment of Tannehill.  As for Allen, I also agree that he only has one fantastic year and it came with S. Diggs at WR.  I'm just saying that if I had to choose 5 QBs to replace him, those two would be the best of the bunch behind the 3 you listed.