Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2021 (All up)

[DoleINGout]

On 5/2/2021 at 7:06 PM, stl4life07 said:

Idk as I really was zoned in on the Rams draft. It’s going to be interesting to see who you rank ahead of the Rams though. 

Every team besides the Texans.

[J-ALL-DAY]

On 5/8/2021 at 12:58 AM, goldfishwars said:

18. San Francisco 49ers  

This Class In One Sentence:
In retrospect, the funniest run-up to a draft I can remember.  

Pre-Draft Needs 
QB, EDGE, IOL, CB, S

Selections
1. 3. Trey Lance - North Dakota State | QB |
2. 48. Aaron Banks - Notre Dame | OG |
3. 88. Trey Sermon - Ohio State | RB |
3. 102. Ambry Thomas - Michigan | CB |
5. 155. Jaylon Moore - Western Michigan | OG |
5. 172. Deommodore Lenoir - Oregon | CB |
5. 181. Talanoa Hufanga - USC | S |
6. 195. Elijah Mitchell - Louisiana | RB |

Picks Heading In
3. 
43.
102. 
117. 
155.
172. 
181. 
195.
230. 

What I Liked
I like that they turned in the card for Lance at 3. The dual threat aspect makes the pick really interesting, it's somehow what we always associate with that Shanny offense, yet we have only actually seen it once. Lance hasn't played a lot, but yet he’s also a quarterback who is further along mentally having played under center at NDS. The accuracy is a mild concern, but clearly that can be off-set by the space he could open up with his legs. 

Outside of Lance, the draft was a little ‘oh yeah, that guy’ – no idea why they need so many running backs in town and that feels odd. Sermon is probably the most well-rounded guy they’ve rostered at running back in a while. He's not got that game breaking speed you associate with 49ers backs, but he does have work-horse potential and arrived with fairly low mileage.  I also like the Talanoa Hufanga pick in the 5th. He’s not particularly rangy, but thrives in the box and is a fantastic second level blitzer if his brittle collar bone can hold up. Elijah Mitchell is a wild card pick at running back, he really is a blazer who will either flame out or carve out a Raheem Mostart-esque career. 

What I Didn’t Like
Aaron Banks was a surprise selection at 43, not because he’s a bad player (he’s good!). It was a little higher than I saw him and he’s also not an obvious scheme fit as being more of a Man/GAP/Power monster. The fact he has never played center either is slightly notable, which might have been useful for a team about to start a 35-year-old man there.

I suppose there's also a question as to whether solid-ish prospects like Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir (awesome name) can help enough right away to fill those needs at corner. The edge depth also looking a little light right now and that might have been somewhere to look later on. 

Man, as very much a sidenote - not a fan of the ‘OF COURSE LANCE WAS THE PLAN ALL ALONG’ post draft takes. I'm more than happy to be a sceptic on that one. Sure, the guy who threw ten career passes in college and didn’t play in 2020 was the guy you 100% were selling the franchise’s future was the guy all along. The dude from the tiny school was the chose one, before a ball was thrown at a pro-day and any pre-draft interview could take place. Maybe I’m crazy, but it just seems more likely, that the 49ers decided they couldn’t handle another season of Jimmy G's injuries tanking their chances, liked a few of the prospects and then went to work out who they liked best.

Not that this matters, it doesn’t. It doesn’t matter at all. We could all be dead by next Sunday. 
 

Good stuff as always.

I don't think it was a done deal by any means that it was Lance for sure at the day of the trade but there is a lot of evidence to suggest he was the likely favorite all along and the trade up to #3 was made to prevent the Falcons from having a chance to draft him as there was a lot of buzz linking the Falcons to Lance during that time. 

I think a lot of 49ers fans had the same thoughts as you when Banks was selected but I also think the team will be adding a power element to the offense with the selections of Lance and Sermon. Banks can still move and get in space but the RZ offense and short down situations has been a problem for this offense for some time and I think Shanny wanted to change that. Simms mentioned on his podcast that he talked to Shanny after the draft and he wanted to get more versatile and take advantage of the trend of smaller/quicker defenses throughout the league.

The draft grade or rankings really don't matter to me at all as the entire class will be determined by how good Lance is or isn't. If he ends up being the real deal and the majority of the picks flail out, it won't really matter....and vice versa.

[49ersfan]

6 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

The draft grade or rankings really don't matter to me at all as the entire class will be determined by how good Lance is or isn't. If he ends up being the real deal and the majority of the picks flail out, it won't really matter....and vice versa.

Agreed. 

Case in point - Watson & Mahomes alone make the Texans & Chiefs 2017 drafts an A+ grade. Yet, Most non texans or chiefs fans can't name a single other player from those draft classes off the top of their head.

Edited May 9, 2021 by 49ersfan

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Agreed. 

Case in point - Watson & Mahomes alone make the Texans & Chiefs 2017 drafts an A+ grade. Yet, Most non texans or chiefs fans can't name a single other player from those draft classes off the top of their head.

Especially considering what we gave up for Lance, nothing else really matters. That's pretty harsh but it's the truth. Like Banks will be the starter for the next five years and Sermon will almost surely be a big factor in the run game, and then if you get one more contributor.....In most years that is great. But not the case this year. You used three first round picks and a 3rd round pick on a QB and ultimately only think people will remember years down the line is if Lance works out or not. 

[Thelonebillsfan]

We signed Matt Breida to fill out the speed role at RB so it's not super surprising we didn't target one in the later rounds to fill out the room. I  also think Brown just based off his athletic profile has a chance to be a real HR pick but other than that it's the same as we've been doing, build slowly with depth and get guys who will rotate in over the next couple years.

[goldfishwars]

15. Minnesota Vikings 

This Class In One Sentence:
A chaotic assortment of prospects with wide-ranging possible outcomes

Pre-Draft Needs 
IOL, EDGE, CB, S, WR, OT

Selections
1. 23. Christian Darrisaw - Virginia Tech | OT |
3. 66. Kellen Mond - Texas A&M | QB |
3. 78. Chazz Surratt - North Carolina | LB |
3. 86. Wyatt Davis - Ohio State | OG |
3. 90. Patrick Jones II - Pittsburgh | DE |
4. 119. Kene Nwangwu - Iowa State | RB |
4. 125. Camryn Bynum - California | CB |
4. 134. Janarius Robinson - Florida State | DE |
5. 157. Ihmir Smith-Marsette - Iowa | WR |
5. 168. Zach Davidson - Central Missouri | TE |
6. 199. Jaylen Twyman - Pittsburgh | DT |

Picks Heading In
14.
78. 
90.
119. 
125.
134.
143.
157.
168.
199. 

What I Liked
Credit to Rick Spielman man, the Vikings aren’t always challenging for Super Bowls – but this guy is rarely on the hot seat because he does the most to put them into positions to win. He's also one of a few GMs in the league to accept an approach to the draft as being about taking multiple shots where you can. He's the anti-Mike Mayock, the dealer - someone who isn't overconfident in the assessments when there's a sniff of a deal. 

Getting Christian Darrisaw after a trade down feels like a miracle considering he was probably their most mocked prospect heading into the draft. Perhaps Darrisaw doesn’t fit that scheme like a glove, but he’s got more than enough tools and athleticism to make it work. Apparently the league didn't like him as much as analysts, but it's hard to not think of this trade as a win for the Vikings. 

Elsewhere, I love the Wyatt Davis pick-up providing he isn’t completely banged up. He was hugely impressive in the 2019 season where he showed off his unlockable grip strength and had a dominant stretch of games. Kellen Mond too, I kind of like as a dart throw at an important position, even if he looked robotic at Texas A&M. It's something you can do with you've created picks. 

Scanning down the eleven total picks, I really love that landing spot for Janarius Robinson. Zimmer loves his lengthy defensive ends and Janarius has 36-inch pipes and a lot of untapped physical potential to dig into. Ihmir Smith-Marsette in the 5th is pretty sweet too. At the least he should give the team a top kick returner, he’s also a surprisingly good route runner and didn’t always get the chance to show that off at Iowa.  Zach Davidson is also intriguing as someone who put up gaudy numbers at a small school, it's also not every day you get a dude who can play tight end and can back-up as the team's punter if needed. 

What I Didn’t Like
I as much as I like the volume of picks, I wasn’t completely onboard with all of the selections. Chazz Surratt has his admirers and he's still learning the position in all fairness. He’s quick and rangy, but just got wiped out of too many plays for my liking.  Patrick Jones II had a decent career at Pitt and has genuinely good tape, perhaps he's just a baller. But was just so awful at the Senior Bowl I couldn’t justify spending a third-round pick on the dude. 

Kene Nwangwu was just way off my radar, he wasn’t heavily used at Iowa State but I know he went nuts in testing at his pro day. That’s fairly bold, given the bigger name recognition of players that were chosen directly after him in Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Gainwell (30 picks later!). 
 

[Deadpulse]

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

A chaotic assortment of prospects with wide-ranging possible outcomes

This hits the nail on the head here IMO

Not a name on that list that doesn't have the talent to be a home run hit

Yet almost all of them have a decent dose of bust potential to go with it. 

[goldfishwars]

14. New England Patriots

This Class In One Sentence:
The Pats picked Mac Jones, which was my pre-draft nightmare – but this might still be New England’s best haul in years

Pre-Draft Needs 
QB, LB, CB, WR, S

Selections
1. 15. Mac Jones - Alabama | QB |
2. 38. Christian Barmore - Alabama | DT |
3. 96. Ronnie Perkins - Oklahoma | DE |
4. 120. Rhamondre Stevenson - Oklahoma | RB |
5. 177. Cameron McGrone - Michigan | LB |
6. 188. Joshuah Bledsoe - Missouri | S |
6. 197. William Sherman - Colorado | OT |
7. 242. Tre Nixon - UCF | WR |

Picks Heading In
15. 
38.
46.
96.
120. 
122.
139. 
177. 
188. 
197. 
242. 

What I Liked
I liked that Mac Jones didn’t cost us anything and how often can you say that about a first round quarterback selection? As for the player himself, he was a quick processor and decisive passer at Alabama which is something Cam Newton was not last year. He’s shone under the brightest lights, albeit for an offense which wildly outmatched their opponents in terms of talent. I think the talent around him needs to be there for him to thrive, so we’ll see if that happens, but he’ll have a very good line in front of him, at least. 

I really liked the next two pick-ups. It feels nuts that New England traded up for a DT, but not a QB in this of all years. I wasn’t a fan of Barmore at a mid-first round price, but he feels like excellent value at 38 despite what it took to go up and get him. He’s proven that he can take over games when he’s running hot and gives what should be a much-improved defensive line some star quality. Ronnie Perkins at 96 is sweet, he just feels like a Patriots edge player – stout and physical at the point of attack and can mix it up as a rusher. 

Elsewhere, McGrone actually attacked blockers with relish from linebacker – something glaringly missing in the games of other prospects at the position. He feels like a nice stash for later whilst recovering from his ACL. Rhamondre Stevenson is fine as a back who will be part of a larger than league average committee. He's a hard-nosed unfussy two down back the type of which BB has been looking for and perhaps makes Sony Michel redundant. The remaining three picks all have stuff to like about them, too – Bledsoe could be a third safety and special teams ace, Sherman has versatility to fill in inside and outside and Nixon was a good deep threat option at UCF. 

What I Didn’t Like
Man, getting that close to Fields – even closer than I thought we would, and not pulling the trigger. Everyone had the Patriots trading up, whether it was 4 to the Falcons, 7 to the Lions or 8 to the Panthers – it was happening. But picks kept ticking off and I can only imagine BB had decided he was going to take whoever landed in his lap, not being totally in love with either QB. It’ll certainly be hard not to think about what could have been should Fields go off with the Bears. The prospect of that happening could end up looming over the Franchise if Mac Jones doesn’t hit his ceiling early, or that he does and it's apparent that it won't be good enough.  
 

[JAF-N72EX]

I honestly don't have any problems with the Pats staying put for Mac Jones and not giving up future assets for Fields.  I personally have very mixed feelings about Mac.  Meaning I don't think he will necessarily be a "terrible" QB in the NFL but his ceiling is relatively low IMHO.  Had Fields not been there at 11, I guarantee the Bears would've jumped ahead of the Pats to get him.

That said, if there was one team who I thought could maximize his talents was the Pats simply because of the strong relationship between Belichick and Saban. Two coaches who are real friends and both of whom I have a hard time disagreeing with when it comes to football.

I'm sure Belichick knows exactly what he's getting in Mac from both a personal and physical standpoint. Now it's up to Belichick and Josh McDaniels to get the most out of him. 

[INbengalfan]

On 5/8/2021 at 5:45 PM, goldfishwars said:

17. Cincinnati Bengals

 

This Class In One Sentence:
A solid attempt to re-stock a roster by a team whose pre-draft needs lined up well with the depth at those spots.

Pre-Draft Needs 
OT, IOL, TE, DL, LB, WR

Selections
1. 5. Ja'Marr Chase - LSU | WR |
2. 46. Jackson Carman - Clemson | OT |
3. 69. Joseph Ossai - Texas | DE |
4. 111. Cameron Sample - Tulane | DE |
4. 122. Tyler Shelvin - LSU | DT |
4. 139. D'Ante Smith - East Carolina | OT |
5. 149. Evan McPherson - Florida | K |
6. 190. Trey Hill - Georgia | C |
6. 202. Chris Evans - Michigan | RB |
7. 235. Wyatt Hubert - Kansas State | DE |

Picks Heading In
5.
38. 
69. 
111. 
149. 
190. 
202. 
235. 

What I Liked
I really like the trade down in the second round, netting picks 122 and 139 which were then converted into a potential starting nose tackle and a swing tackle. That’s why I always push back when people say ‘well, we only gave up x’ – you also gave up real football players that can play for your team, especially when you’re actively trying to get better.  I also like the multiple shots at offensive line, I think that was exactly the way to play it - attack with volume and see what hits. 

I really like Chase the player and the fact he is teaming up with his old college teammate. I like that he has prototypical x receiver qualities, in a draft where not many of those guys existed. He’s an explosive boundary receiver with rare athleticism and play strength and played well against the best in the SEC. I quite like Joe Ossai, certainly at 69 as opposed to the first-round attention he was getting earlier in the process. This feels like a decent fit for that new hybrid front on defens as a finesse rusher who is going to have to learn to play better against top tier NFL tackles. 

Cam Sample is really nice at 111 and gets to join his brother Drew in Cinci, which is nice for those guys and the family. He’s kind of the opposite of Ossai, someone who will crash down on the edges and can collapse the pocket. Tyler Shelvin is someone who should help the run defense inside, without offering anything in the pass-rush department. Chris Evans in the 6th is really interesting, a weird history at Michigan – but he’s built like the running back prototype and can impact the game as a runner and receiver. 

What I Didn’t Like
I think whatever you think about this class depends on which side of the Chase versus Sewell debate you sit on and then whether you think Jackson Carman was the right offensive lineman to plump for in the second round once that was settled. Personally, I wasn’t second round big on him. I presume he was an Alex Leatherwood compromise, someone who can play some guard and be groomed to slot in at tackle later. Carman is still young and moves well, he's just a little unrefined which doesn't feel perfect when Cincinnati might need him to hit the ground running. 

I like that they took shots at offensive line, I just wonder whether Cinci would have been better placed bringing in higher floor prospects. Two of their selections have had conditioning questions (Carman and Trey Hill) and one long dude (D’Ante Smith) is talented but needs to hit the weight room. Perhaps that is harsh. 
 

Quite a fair ranking and explanation.  I know Mike Brown is like a 4 year old kid in Walmart who fixates on the shiniest toy on the bottom shelf and won't come off of it.  I love Chase as a prospect, but passing on Sewell still hurts.  A lot of this class's grade will revolve around Carman, but they felt convinced he was their guy, and netted two extra picks in the deal.  That's a win.  They also solidified their depth, something they haven't had in awhile.  We always had a lot of good starters, but never anything behind them.  

Anyway, I think I have Zac's draft plan down now (by rounds)

1.  Take an LSU tiger (Burrow, Chase)

2.  Take A Clemson tiger (Higgins, Carman)

Rounds 3, 4, and 7  decide what position needs overhauled and draft three guys at it.  last year, it was LB.  This year it was EDGE

3.  Wilson, Ossai

4.  Akeem Davis Gaither, Sample

7.  Matt Bailey, Wyatt Hubert

[THE DUKE]

I loved what the Pats did on defense in this draft, and as long as Stevenson isn't expected to be a bell cow (which is rarely the case in NE) then I think he fits in well for a rotation of backs.  Barmore and Perkins are really going to bolster the front 7.

[THE DUKE]

1 minute ago, INbengalfan said:

Quite a fair ranking and explanation.  I know Mike Brown is like a 4 year old kid in Walmart who fixates on the shiniest toy on the bottom shelf and won't come off of it.  I love Chase as a prospect, but passing on Sewell still hurts.  A lot of this class's grade will revolve around Carman, but they felt convinced he was their guy, and netted two extra picks in the deal.  That's a win.  They also solidified their depth, something they haven't had in awhile.  We always had a lot of good starters, but never anything behind them.  

Anyway, I think I have Zac's draft plan down now (by rounds)

1.  Take an LSU tiger (Burrow, Chase)

2.  Take A Clemson tiger (Higgins, Carman)

Rounds 3, 4, and 7  decide what position needs overhauled and draft three guys at it.  last year, it was LB.  This year it was EDGE

3.  Wilson, Ossai

4.  Akeem Davis Gaither, Sample

7.  Matt Bailey, Wyatt Hubert

I was good with either side of the Chase vs Sewell debate, so it didn't particularly hurt for me.  Don't get me wrong, I think Sewell is a great prospect and I would have been both fine AND dandy to get him at 5, but i'm not convinced he is this generational prospect like some want to say.

And apparently D'Ante Smith is normally around the 310 range but had trouble keep weight on around Covid protocols.  I heard in podcasts that in the past he was up to almost 330 before he took his diet seriously and now is getting back up with proper training and diet. He was as low as 283, then was 294 at the senior bowl, and is said to be 305 at the time of the draft. I'm feeling better about that pick the more I look into it.

I loved the Tyler Shelvin pick from the jump and haven't moved off that stance.  Look at what happened to the run defense when Reader got hurt last year.  Depth at NT was sorely needed.

If the Carman pick works, then the entire draft kind of falls into place.  You will have added a dangerous weapon with an already existing connection with your #1 overall QB, shored up the offensive line, and took a lot of swings at shoring up depth that was sorely lacking.

[Hunter2_1]

I'm upset!!

 

Actually I'm not, I think that's fair and I predicted about middle/upper middle. I'm higher on the Mac pick than you, due to sheer need. Barmore and McGrone my fav picks, the value is great. I'm lower on Perkins than you.

Overall, best grade I've ever given our draft...

[MWil23]

The Vikings had one of those drafts where I found myself liking a lot of their D2/D3 prospects and the value that they got for each. They clearly want to reload their OL, and that Mond pick screams that they want to continue their legacy of limbo/purgatory quarterbacks...but I don't think that they did anything (on paper) to immediately vault themselves into contending for the NFC North unless somehow Rodgers gets traded, because then by default they'd be the favorites.

Personally, I don't like the Patriots draft at all (because I'm a Mac Jones HATER) outside of the Barmore pick, which I think is going to be a good one.

[49ersfan]

The talk of Mac at 3 was lunacy. But if the Niners were sitting at 12 and the other QB's were gone, i would have been fine with him at that spot. So I think he's a solid choice for the Pats at 15. Worst case he busts, it didn't cost them any other assets and they can move on in 2-3 years. His best case is probably Matt Ryan, best best case is probably Drew Brees, but i think he ends up more like a Kirk Cousins type, which is a very solid QB.