Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2021 (All up)

[DirtyDez]

Where does Rondale Moore go with a clean Bill of health?

[BayRaider]

@pwny I agree the Jags are too low here, they deserve 14th or 15th purely for the Lawrence factor. However, outside of that, many non-Jag fans view it as a pretty underwhelming draft. Eth at 25 screams “meh” although “ok” value. Tyson Campbell is a total Boom or Bust pick at 33. He’s not gonna be good, average, or bad. He’s gonna be a superstar or a complete 100% bust. And if you had to bet money on it, it’s a bust. A bit over drafted as well, more of a Mid 2nd Rounder. As for Walker Little, he went where he was suppose to go, but another huge Boom or Bust prospect, and if you had to bet your house on it, I bet most would bet bust, even though I like Little. 

Andre Cisco, anotherrrrr Boom or Bust guy that leans heavily bust. Also quite over drafted. 
 

This could be a case where 5 years from now, Lawrence is the only member of this draft class on the Jaguars with Eth being an alright back, but you don’t pay RB’s. 
 

Could also be one of the best classes if Walker and Campbell fully “boom”. Time will tell. 
 

Edited May 7, 2021 by BayRaider

[pwny]

18 hours ago, BayRaider said:

@pwny I agree the Jags are too low here, they deserve 14th or 15th purely for the Lawrence factor. However, outside of that, many non-Jag fans view it as a pretty underwhelming draft. Eth at 25 screams “meh” although “ok” value. Tyson Campbell is a total Boom or Bust pick at 33. He’s not gonna be good, average, or bad. He’s gonna be a superstar or a complete 100% bust. And if you had to bet money on it, it’s a bust. A bit over drafted as well, more of a Mid 2nd Rounder. As for Walker Little, he went where he was suppose to go, but another huge Boom or Bust prospect, and if you had to bet your house on it, I bet most would bet bust, even though I like Little. 

Andre Cisco, anotherrrrr Boom or Bust guy that leans heavily bust. Also quite over drafted. 
 

This could be a case where 5 years from now, Lawrence is the only member of this draft class on the Jaguars with Eth being an alright back, but you don’t pay RB’s. 
 

Could also be one of the best classes if Walker and Campbell fully “boom”. Time will tell. 
 

I don’t even necessarily know if it’s too low. 20th seems kinda fine as a preliminary overview. I’d put it a bit higher, but I don’t see any reason to argue too fervently.

I’ve said in the Jaguars sub-forum that I too can totally see a situation where Trevor and ETN are the only successes and think that like somewhere like 12-15 is probably where I’d put it as of right now with the possibility it shoots up the list as time goes on, but overall I’m fine with his assessment of it being a little below average class. 

I also did a deep dive into a review of Trent Baalke’s history with guys with knee injuries, so I’m well aware of the risks with guys like Little and Cisco. Campbell has to develop his skills when the ball is in the air or he’s not gonna work out. With Jordan Smith it seems like he might have tested poorly because he tried to bulk up too fast/dirty, but there’s concerns with his size and if he can play explosively even if he puts on the mass correctly. Tufele is completely underdeveloped as a pass rusher, and it might be that his measurables never develop into the pass rush skills that his athleticism would lead one to hope for. He should still be an effective run stopper, but there’s only so much value fans put in guys who can only play the run. There’s a lot of boom/bust, and I’m not gonna complain too much if the assessment for many is leaning towards the bust on them; especially since he put Campbell in the positives. 

The only real discernible issue I have is the pervasive misunderstanding of ETN’s role on the team and the high level value that role is going to have in creating the offensive system that Urban Meyer wants to run. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I'm fine with all of it

As always GFW, you rock for doing all these!

[Deadpulse]

I think the Jags at 20 is right on point. Lawrence was a no brainer, any team at #1 overall takes him or trades out if they have an established franchise QB. They don't get points for taking him IMO. I think you have to consider their ranking outside of him. 

[Jakuvious]

Back when I posted more around the draft and paid more attention to all the pre-draft stuff, I always personally found it very difficult to grade drafts like the Jaguars. Because if you're grading the quality of the draft class, yeah, Jacksonville would be way up there purely from the existence of Trevor Lawrence in that group. But that grading, in theory, should almost always fall relatively in line with just draft capital anyways. Most teams had no chance to draft a Lawrence or Pitts or Sewell. But if you're grading like, the value they got relative to the picks they had, or if you're grading how well they actually did at the process of drafting, you don't really want to give them a ton of credit for just not screwing up when everyone would've done what they did there.

[pwny]

13 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Back when I posted more around the draft and paid more attention to all the pre-draft stuff, I always personally found it very difficult to grade drafts like the Jaguars. Because if you're grading the quality of the draft class, yeah, Jacksonville would be way up there purely from the existence of Trevor Lawrence in that group. But that grading, in theory, should almost always fall relatively in line with just draft capital anyways. Most teams had no chance to draft a Lawrence or Pitts or Sewell. But if you're grading like, the value they got relative to the picks they had, or if you're grading how well they actually did at the process of drafting, you don't really want to give them a ton of credit for just not screwing up when everyone would've done what they did there.

Really, I think you mostly gotta decide first whether you’re grading the staff or the class or how much you weigh each.

To me — and obviously I’m coming at this from a biased perspective — it seems kinda silly to completely discount the impact of what effectively is the only pick that’s going to matter for the team when we look back in a decade. It won’t matter what the other picks do; It won’t even matter whether Urban Meyer works out of any of the other offseason moves do anything of value. If Trevor ends up an all time great, the 2021 offseason will forever be viewed as a franchise altering offseason for this team. If Trevor ends up busting, it also won’t matter whether or not the other picks end up good; this offseason will always be remembered as the time we all bought into hype that never panned out.

And I think that perspective should be apparent *somewhere*. Maybe not in these specific rankings, but it’s gonna be in my viewpoint.

[KhanYouDigIt]

On 5/6/2021 at 5:45 PM, FinSting said:

Etienne has been performing at a high level so long for Clemson, you almost expect the guy to show up to his rookie training camp with grey in his beard. Those wheels have a lot of mileage. 

Not really. You act like he was getting 300 carries a year like Jonathan Taylor.

[onejayhawk]

I'll throw in with the Jacksonville is too low because of how much the team is improved. We have already seen Seattle, who did very well with the tiny amount of draft capital they had left. Value matters and filling needs matters, but total weight of talent matters as well. 

J

[FalconFan13]

23 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Oh wow, would love to see your rankings. 

Sure i'll PM them to ya im not gonna go all out like you and do complete writeups your a monster for doing them every year XD  So mine don't deserve a thread or anything but i'll do a list for ya and send it to ya my friend

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, FalconFan13 said:

Sure i'll PM them to ya im not gonna go all out like you and do complete writeups your a monster for doing them every year XD  So mine don't deserve a thread or anything but i'll do a list for ya and send it to ya my friend

Thanks dude

[goldfishwars]

18. San Francisco 49ers  

This Class In One Sentence:
In retrospect, the funniest run-up to a draft I can remember.  

Pre-Draft Needs 
QB, EDGE, IOL, CB, S

Selections
1. 3. Trey Lance - North Dakota State | QB |
2. 48. Aaron Banks - Notre Dame | OG |
3. 88. Trey Sermon - Ohio State | RB |
3. 102. Ambry Thomas - Michigan | CB |
5. 155. Jaylon Moore - Western Michigan | OG |
5. 172. Deommodore Lenoir - Oregon | CB |
5. 181. Talanoa Hufanga - USC | S |
6. 195. Elijah Mitchell - Louisiana | RB |

Picks Heading In
3. 
43.
102. 
117. 
155.
172. 
181. 
195.
230. 

What I Liked
I like that they turned in the card for Lance at 3. The dual threat aspect makes the pick really interesting, it's somehow what we always associate with that Shanny offense, yet we have only actually seen it once. Lance hasn't played a lot, but yet he’s also a quarterback who is further along mentally having played under center at NDS. The accuracy is a mild concern, but clearly that can be off-set by the space he could open up with his legs. 

Outside of Lance, the draft was a little ‘oh yeah, that guy’ – no idea why they need so many running backs in town and that feels odd. Sermon is probably the most well-rounded guy they’ve rostered at running back in a while. He's not got that game breaking speed you associate with 49ers backs, but he does have work-horse potential and arrived with fairly low mileage.  I also like the Talanoa Hufanga pick in the 5th. He’s not particularly rangy, but thrives in the box and is a fantastic second level blitzer if his brittle collar bone can hold up. Elijah Mitchell is a wild card pick at running back, he really is a blazer who will either flame out or carve out a Raheem Mostart-esque career. 

What I Didn’t Like
Aaron Banks was a surprise selection at 43, not because he’s a bad player (he’s good!). It was a little higher than I saw him and he’s also not an obvious scheme fit as being more of a Man/GAP/Power monster. The fact he has never played center either is slightly notable, which might have been useful for a team about to start a 35-year-old man there.

I suppose there's also a question as to whether solid-ish prospects like Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir (awesome name) can help enough right away to fill those needs at corner. The edge depth also looking a little light right now and that might have been somewhere to look later on. 

Man, as very much a sidenote - not a fan of the ‘OF COURSE LANCE WAS THE PLAN ALL ALONG’ post draft takes. I'm more than happy to be a sceptic on that one. Sure, the guy who threw ten career passes in college and didn’t play in 2020 was the guy you 100% were selling the franchise’s future was the guy all along. The dude from the tiny school was the chose one, before a ball was thrown at a pro-day and any pre-draft interview could take place. Maybe I’m crazy, but it just seems more likely, that the 49ers decided they couldn’t handle another season of Jimmy G's injuries tanking their chances, liked a few of the prospects and then went to work out who they liked best.

Not that this matters, it doesn’t. It doesn’t matter at all. We could all be dead by next Sunday. 
 

[goldfishwars]

17. Cincinnati Bengals

 

This Class In One Sentence:
A solid attempt to re-stock a roster by a team whose pre-draft needs lined up well with the depth at those spots.

Pre-Draft Needs 
OT, IOL, TE, DL, LB, WR

Selections
1. 5. Ja'Marr Chase - LSU | WR |
2. 46. Jackson Carman - Clemson | OT |
3. 69. Joseph Ossai - Texas | DE |
4. 111. Cameron Sample - Tulane | DE |
4. 122. Tyler Shelvin - LSU | DT |
4. 139. D'Ante Smith - East Carolina | OT |
5. 149. Evan McPherson - Florida | K |
6. 190. Trey Hill - Georgia | C |
6. 202. Chris Evans - Michigan | RB |
7. 235. Wyatt Hubert - Kansas State | DE |

Picks Heading In
5.
38. 
69. 
111. 
149. 
190. 
202. 
235. 

What I Liked
I really like the trade down in the second round, netting picks 122 and 139 which were then converted into a potential starting nose tackle and a swing tackle. That’s why I always push back when people say ‘well, we only gave up x’ – you also gave up real football players that can play for your team, especially when you’re actively trying to get better.  I also like the multiple shots at offensive line, I think that was exactly the way to play it - attack with volume and see what hits. 

I really like Chase the player and the fact he is teaming up with his old college teammate. I like that he has prototypical x receiver qualities, in a draft where not many of those guys existed. He’s an explosive boundary receiver with rare athleticism and play strength and played well against the best in the SEC. I quite like Joe Ossai, certainly at 69 as opposed to the first-round attention he was getting earlier in the process. This feels like a decent fit for that new hybrid front on defens as a finesse rusher who is going to have to learn to play better against top tier NFL tackles. 

Cam Sample is really nice at 111 and gets to join his brother Drew in Cinci, which is nice for those guys and the family. He’s kind of the opposite of Ossai, someone who will crash down on the edges and can collapse the pocket. Tyler Shelvin is someone who should help the run defense inside, without offering anything in the pass-rush department. Chris Evans in the 6th is really interesting, a weird history at Michigan – but he’s built like the running back prototype and can impact the game as a runner and receiver. 

What I Didn’t Like
I think whatever you think about this class depends on which side of the Chase versus Sewell debate you sit on and then whether you think Jackson Carman was the right offensive lineman to plump for in the second round once that was settled. Personally, I wasn’t second round big on him. I presume he was an Alex Leatherwood compromise, someone who can play some guard and be groomed to slot in at tackle later. Carman is still young and moves well, he's just a little unrefined which doesn't feel perfect when Cincinnati might need him to hit the ground running. 

I like that they took shots at offensive line, I just wonder whether Cinci would have been better placed bringing in higher floor prospects. Two of their selections have had conditioning questions (Carman and Trey Hill) and one long dude (D’Ante Smith) is talented but needs to hit the weight room. Perhaps that is harsh. 
 

[Johnny Nix]

Fair ranking for Cincy. I think we know Chase is going to be good. So the draft hinges on Jackson Carman being a good RG. 

[goldfishwars]

16. Buffalo Bills 

This Class In One Sentence:
A really solid class throughout, headlined by a player who drew very mixed opinions 

Pre-Draft Needs 
Edge, CB, TE, RB

Selections
1. 30. Gregory Rousseau - Miami (FL) | DE |
2. 61. Carlos Basham Jr. - Wake Forest | DE |
3. 93. Spencer Brown - Northern Iowa | OT |
5. 161. Tommy Doyle - Miami (OH) | OT |
6. 203. Marquez Stevenson - Houston | WR |
6. 212. Damar Hamlin - Pittsburgh | S |
6. 213. Rachad Wildgoose - Wisconsin | CB |
7. 236. Jack Anderson - Texas Tech | OG |

Picks Heading In
30. 
61. 
93. 
161. 
174. 
213. 
236. 

What I Liked
There’s a bit to like about every player selected. I like the landing spot for Rousseau and the Basham pick at 61 to bolster the edges. Both have an outside/inside versatility to their games. Rousseau has a strange size and athletic profile, quick but not explosive - but can overwhelm with his length. He doesn't need to start right away and gets the coaching he needs. Basham just has the feel of someone who’ll play in the league for years, stout on the edge and can give you something three-tech - or even transfer there full-time with a little hulking up. 

I really like the back-to-back selections on Spencer Brown and Tommy Doyle, two tackles who aren’t ready to start soon – but both have high-end athletic tools to develop behind the current starters. Hamlin, Wildgoose (awesome name) and Stevenson are all solid dart throws in the 6th. Hamlin is smart and versatile at the back end, and might have the easiest route into playing time. 

What I Didn’t Like
The draft lacks a little stardust, there are no fireworks picks – not that you would expect that from a regime which values steady progress. It’s perhaps a surprise that they didn’t bring in more competition at corner than a 5th round selection. They also might have looked at a speedster at running back to compliment what they have. Other than that, there’s little to complain about other than wanting a bit more juice out of the edge selections.