Week 4: Steelers @ Lambeau Field

[BarnettOSU]

11 hours ago, Malfatron said:

36-17 pittsburgh wins

Eye c wut ur doin thur. 

[Shanedorf]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

What is there to really say about this game

Damn- that was a fantastic write up, thx a million for doing it

[AlexGreen#20]

21 hours ago, CrazyJoeDavola said:

I get what you are saying and in my scenario its not anything against Turner. I just see Jenkins as a high end RT maybe a tier above Turner and I see Turner as a tier above Newman (at this stage in their careers). So I don't think Billy has been bad I just think Jenkins can be better and in that top tier of tackles. So if your book ends can both be tier one guys I say go for it. We could go back to the Clifton/Tauscher days with Bakhtiari/Jenkins.

Why are we trying to solve a problem that isn't here? The top 5 at this point is Bakhtiari-Jenkins-Myers-Runyan-Turner.

Jenkins isn't shown me anything to say he's a better Tackle than Turner. If the staff feels differently you might move Turner to RG, leave Runyan at LG, and play Jenkins at RT, but I haven't sent any reason take Turner's RT spot away from him. 

[deltarich87]

No Claypool for the Stillers

 

[packfanfb]

22 minutes ago, deltarich87 said:

No Claypool for the Stillers

 

That'll help. Both teams without their best deep threats.

[Steeler Hitman]

11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

What is there to really say about this game other than to wonder which version of the Steelers shows up?

The one that showed up against the Bengals was so entirely lifeless and toothless that it was a chore to watch. 

The front group on defense was worthless. Joe Burrow threw 18 times, and the story was that the Steelers seasons-long streak of games with at least one sack ended. But they didn't just not get a sack. They didn't get a hit on Burrow, or even a hurry. On 18 attempts, Joe Burrow dropped back and had time to write his memoirs. The loss of TJ Watt and Stephon Tuitt gutted that group, but there was a time a few years ago where Cameron Heyward and Melvin Ingram would be enough to get something going. Both are now 32 and change, and they looked two steps slow last week.

Chris Wormley played 91% of their defensive snaps, and his ideal role in their defense is as a pressure package rusher, not an every down guy, and the Bengals exposed his deficiencies in the run game. Isiah Buggs played 32% of snaps and continues to cement his reputation as a JAG who isn't really a true NT. Derrek Tuszka and Jamir Jones demonstrated the deservedness of their anonymity quite well opposite Melvin Ingram in their other rush spots. Watt will be back, which should help the exterior rush quite a bit even if he is only at 50%

Joe Schobert continues to prove undeserving of the big contract he got, and Devin Bush failed to stand out. This duo is the one that's going to have the most questions to answer if they prove to be very mortal. When the protection in front of the pair was substandard, both looked hesitant and very blockable. 

The run defense from everybody was lacking. Joe Mixon with 90 rushing yards on only one broken tackle means everybody was getting blocked at the first level. 

Similar to the ILB group, the secondary got it handed to them by Boyd and Jamarr Chase in the absence of a pass rush. Granted, Chase is a superstar in the making, but they were getting beat vertically in ways they rarely did when the front group was cooking.

On offense, the OL is horrific. All five starters were penalized last week, which seemingly served as a point of emphasis for how bad this problem has gotten. It's the lowest paid group in the entire league, and it's not even like there's been a lot of high end draft capital invested into it to make up for the lack of money being spent on it, just a lot of middling picks without any real experience. We're likely to see Haeg-Dotson(557 career snaps)-Green(185 career snaps)-Turner-Moore (197 career snaps). That is: a 5th round pick in 2016, a 4th round pick in 2020, a 3rd round pick in 2021, a 3rd round pick in 2014, and a 4th round pick in 2021.

Joe Haeg hasn't been a regular starter in 3 years, back when he was a starting RT on the Colts. Now he's being asked to start at LT in place of the concussed Chukwuma Okorafor. Now 8 years into the league, Trai Turner was a disaster last year for the Chargers. He was injured and out of shape for the whole year and was released following the season. The Steelers picked him off the scrap heap deep into the offseason on a 1/3 deal that was probably best for both hurting parties. He's been the only passable part of the line. 

Similar to how upfront struggles really hurt the defense last week, the struggles with the offensive line have been a millstone around the neck of an offense that is already lacking in places. On his 14 rushes last week, Najee Harris averaged a depressing 1.0 yards before contact last week against a Bengals front that is less than intimidating. Larry Ogunjobi looked unblockable upfront. For comparison, Aaron Jones rushing against the 49ers last week had 2.2 yards before contact against the 49ers. 

The passing game was similarly impacted by the lack of protection. Facing pressure on 19% of his dropbacks, Roethlisberger turned into a checkdown machine. He averaged 5.4 Intended Air Yards Per Throw, one of the lowest averages in his entire career. Nothing demonstrates the lack of downfield aggressiveness than his targeting Najee Harris NINETEEN times. The Steelers top 3 receivers had average yards gained before the catch of: Claypool/6.4, Washington/5.0, Smith-Schuster/3.0. He threw 5 yard curl routes and flare screens out of the backfield the entire game, and it was unwatchable. In contrast, Packers receivers had: Adams/8.6, MVS/13.7, and Lazard/23. 

The Steelers receivers aren't bad, they're a very talented group, but they need to cut out the drops, and they need some help from everywhere else on the field. Claypool in particular is already a baby monster. JuJu Smith Schuster ended up coming back to the team on a one year deal after his market went cold at the end of last year, and that deal has left a lot of people wondering whether that 8 million would have been better spent pulling in a Riley Reiff. 

Ebron has turned back into a pumpkin (1 catch on 7 targets this year) and has already been overtaken by second round pick Pat Friermouth. That says more about Ebron than it does Friermouth. 

Najee Harris is looking tremendous, which sounds like a ridiculous thing to say about a RB averaging 3.1 yards per attempt, but it's rather impressive when you're only getting 1.5 yards per attempt before contact. He does a phenomenal job of getting what's available, and he's been a consistent receiving threat out of the backfield. But he's still a RB and playing the most dependent position in football. 

+++

The Packers received opposite news from the Steelers about their star edge rusher. Zadarius Smith is going under the knife for back surgery which has a chance of knocking him out for the rest of the year. They have two very competent starters in Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, who while only having combined for 1.5 sacks this year, have 9 QB knockdowns. Both are big strong and versatile in what they can do. The problem with the Packers for their edge rushers is their depth, which after the first two gets really really bad. 1 of Jonathan Garvin or Chauncey Rivers played on 33% of snaps, which isn't encouraging if you're a Packers fan who was hoping to see the dregs of the roster banished to the end of the bench.

Kenny Clark on the interior continues to be a wagon. He's provided 6 pressures from his NT position and has kept the Packers respectable in run defense at times. The team's biggest weakness on defense has been the spot next to Clark. Dean Lowry continues to exist there despite being underwhelming there his entire career. Kingsley Keke, Tyler Lancaster, and Tedarrell Slatton all rotate in at times depending on if more run stuffing or pass rush is desired. All 3 are one-dimensional pieces.

De'Vondre Campbell has seemingly locked himself into a starting ILB and is playing adequately. Krys Barnes is questionable to play with a concussion. He'll likely be replaced with a combination of Ty Summers and Oren Burks. Summers will play run downs, and the more athletic Burks is likely to play standard and passing downs. None of the guys listed here move the needle. Losing Barnes hurts, but all four are close to replacement level.

The secondary is where the Packers are showing the most improvement this year, both Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage have looked great at Safety, and Jaire Alexander has continued his extremely high level play. The 1st round rookie, Eric Stokes has shown well in his first game and a half on the boundary, we'll continue to see how that looks. He vs. Claypool should be quite the show. If Kevin King is healthy after his concussion, he'll start in the slot. if not, Chandon Sullivan will get the nod. While it would be nice to have King, slot receivers haven't killed the Packers against Sullivan, so that will be worth a watch. 

On offense, the most glaring issue is Elgton Jenkins being out again. That means Yosh Nijman is going to get another run at LT. He got embarrassed the first two drives against Nick Bosa before settling in, getting more chip help, and running a more sped up offense. It will be interesting to see if the Steelers move TJ Watt over to the right side of the defense to try and exploit this matchup. This will be Nijman's second start and he's only got 77 NFL snaps to his name. Billy Turner at RT has been pretty good so far this year and really throughout his entire contract since signing with the Packers.

The interior is young with Runyan-Myers-Newman playing the inside. Runyan's been real solid at Guard, though he's not always the prettiest. He's coming into his second start with 288 snaps to his name. Myers (2nd round pick) and Newman (4th round pick) are both rookies. Myers has been the exact definiton of Center adequate. No sacks allowed, no penalties, no bad snaps. He's been steady if not spectacular. Newman's the weak point on the line so far, but he hasn't been damning. The Steelers may also move Heyward around to line him up over Newman. 

The offense has been moving fine. Aaron Jones is looking like a strong contributor in every aspect of his game. He's been targeted 10 times in the passing game, and he's caught all 10 targets and gotten 6 first downs and 3 TDs. His blocking has been top shelf, and his rushing has been in line with the run blocking he's received. AJ Dillon coming in behind Jones is a perfectly adequate backup.

Davante Adams obviously is THAT DUDE among the receivers and he's continued to dominate. MVS is out this week, so Allan Lazard will step up into the #2 spot and Randall Cobb will also get reps. One thing to watch is how the Packers use Cobb and Lazard, Lazard does some of his best work blocking in the slot, but Cobb can't really play on the boundary at his age. Losing Lazard in the slot may hurt the Packers running attack.

Robert Tonyan is the receiving TE, Marcedes Lewis is the traditional Y blocking TE, and Josiah Deguara is the H-Back. All three are very good at their respective jobs, but all 3 are both rather specialized. All will get time as situations demand it.

Aaron Rodgers is obviously quite good, and since getting the rust knocked off him in New Orleans has really looked great. If the Steelers can fluster him with pressure early on, he may turtle up, but if the OL can keep him upright, you expect him to have a really good game against a defense that should be close to back to full strength. 

+++

Against the Bengals, the Steelers played with 1.0 QBs, 1.0 RBs, .08 FBs, 5.0 OL, 1.04 TEs, 2.88 WRs. They did suffer a lot of injuries at WR though, so some of the heavier groupings might not have been by choice.

The Bengals played with 1.0 QBs, 1.06 RBs, 5.03 OL, 1.19 TEs 2.63 WRs. The Steelers countered with 2.44 DL, 2.0 Edge Rushers, 1.78 ILBs, 2.77 CBs, 2.09 Safeties. This tells us the Steelers played a little lighter than positional norms would tell us, but not that much lighter.

Against the 49ers, the Packers played with 1.0 QBs, 1.02 RBs, 5.0 OL, 1.40 TEs, 2.58 WRs

The 49ers played with 1.0 QBs, .59 RBs, .69 FBs, 1.25 TEs, 5.0 OL 2.47 WRs. The Packers countered with 2.39 DL, 2.63 CBs, 2.19 Safeties 1.79 ILBs 2.03 OLBs. this tells us the Packers went really light against one of the heavier offenses in the NFL. 

Considering some of the nicks on the Steelers WR group, I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out a little bit heavier this week. Steelers fans have been clamoring for more of Derek Watt for several years now, and that may be the play. 

 

Excellent post ⭐⭐⭐⭐

 

 

[ThatJerkDave]

19 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why are we trying to solve a problem that isn't here? The top 5 at this point is Bakhtiari-Jenkins-Myers-Runyan-Turner.

Jenkins isn't shown me anything to say he's a better Tackle than Turner. If the staff feels differently you might move Turner to RG, leave Runyan at LG, and play Jenkins at RT, but I haven't sent any reason take Turner's RT spot away from him. 

That is exactly where I am at.  I don't think that it is any one person banging the drum either, and I am not being accusatory, but I feel that people are complicating things a little too much.  Jenkins can play any of the 5 line positions, pretty well.  But he is really, really good at LG.  Don't over think it.  And if Nijman can put together a decent game at LT this week, I am probably putting Jenkins back at LG when he returns.  

[OneTwoSixFive]

2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

That is exactly where I am at.  I don't think that it is any one person banging the drum either, and I am not being accusatory, but I feel that people are complicating things a little too much.  Jenkins can play any of the 5 line positions, pretty well.  But he is really, really good at LG.  Don't over think it.  And if Nijman can put together a decent game at LT this week, I am probably putting Jenkins back at LG when he returns.  

Elgton Jenkins value at RT and RG could be expressed as 'value-over-the-incumbent', compared to 'value at LG'. Comparisons are against Bakhtiari, Turner and Nijman. 

We could guess that Jenkins is very likely better than Nijman at LT. He is probably equal or better than Turner at RT..........but Turners stats over 3 games (of which only one game was relatively easy) are 1 sack, 0 penalties. No matter how good Jenkins is at RT, he isn't going to be a very big step-up from that. Therefore you don't insert him at RT because it messes with the continuity of the line more than is necessary. 

It is very unlikely that Jenkins is better than Bakhtiari, with him having been the top pass protecting LT in the league. So Jenkins won't replace him on merit. However he might be a lot cheaper................except that Bakhtiari has just had a huge 3 year contract with half of it ($30m) guaranteed and won't be going anywhere else anytime soon. So, EJ at LT is very unlikely unless it is to fill in until Bakhtiari is back.

Jenkins playing at LG (and guard is a less highly regarded position than C or OT) is actually a benefit going forward. It makes it easier to move him into another position if an injury hits anywhere along the line in the future (you can get by with just average replacement at LG, compared to C or T).

So, after ignoring the advice of @ThatJerkDave about overthinking it, I have overthought it and still come to the same conclusion he did, leave EJ at LG.............. unless it is to replace a struggling Nijman. If he (Nijman) holds up relatively well, EJ can even come back from injury at LG (which I never thought I'd say before last week).  If Nijman struggles going forward, then its Jenkins at LT until Bakhtiari comes back.

Edited October 3, 2021 by OneTwoSixFive

[Old Guy]

Everybody is real quick to try and keep Nijman in the line up. The question is Runyan better at LG than Nijman is at LT. I think the answer is Runyan has been a lot better at LG than Nijman has been at LT in Nijman's one start. Runyan has been downright solid at LG. A guy you could see as a long term starter if he keeps improving, which he no doubt will with playing time. 

So the bigger question down the road for me is, how much better than Runyan do you perceive Jenkins to be at LG? Is it worth the 18+ million a year you are going to have to pay him. If Billy Turner is Jenkins equal at RT and you can extend Turner for a lot less than Jenkins that is one tough decision. 

Obviously we could flip one of those guards to the RG position if we think Newman's upside is limited. I'm not sure how the coaching staff views him. 

Jenkins is a stud, don't get me wrong, but what he's going to get to play guard has to be questioned if you have solid to above average guys in house who can man those positions. 

When Bak returns I could see a line up of: Bak and Turner at tackles, Myers at center and Runyan and Jenkins at guard. The question for me is who is LG? Probably Jenkins but who knows. 

Sadly, we can't pay them all. 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by Old Guy

[HighCalebR]

Ill bet my house car and life the Jenkins gets a 2nd contract from the packers.

[Leader]

21 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Ill bet my house car and life the Jenkins gets a 2nd contract from the packers.

How exactly would this play out?
I mean....will you be putting this into your Will (?) or will you turn over the car and house just before shooting yourself?
Or will you end it all and just let the paperwork take care of the rest? 

[HighCalebR]

Just now, Leader said:

How exactly would this play out?
I mean....will you be putting this into your Will (?) or will you turn over the car and house just before shooting yourself?
Or will you end it all and just let the paperwork take care of the rest? 

I start picking out my new house and car. I dont worry about losing until it happens.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

That is exactly where I am at.  I don't think that it is any one person banging the drum either, and I am not being accusatory, but I feel that people are complicating things a little too much.  Jenkins can play any of the 5 line positions, pretty well.  But he is really, really good at LG.  Don't over think it.  And if Nijman can put together a decent game at LT this week, I am probably putting Jenkins back at LG when he returns.  

Nijman is not good at LT. You have to compromise your offense as far as your protections and your RB and TE usage. 

Aaron Jones shouldn't be lined up as a wing back. Robert Tonyan should have his full route tree available. You can make it work, but it isn't optimal. 

[Zycho32]

Here's a simplification of the process;

-Jenkins is our version of Bruce Matthews, mainly in that you can conceivably pencil him anywhere and he'll hold his own. That's excellent. For now he's the LG and the #2 guy at LT and C. When Bak's not starting at LT, he is.
-Yosh is really a developing 3rd Tackle with some definite promise. He's got the Don Barclay role going forward, but he's only playing LT if Bak and Jenkins are out, period.
-Turner's the RT by default, leaving RG to Runyan, Newman, or even Patrick going forward. The 2nd place guy in that race is gonna be the backup G/#3 C. 3rd place is likely boned and hunting for another job.

[Reaper]

Looking forward to this game; I’m looking at the DL and Stokes. I was a bit surprised last game at the DL and Stokes is way better than I anticipated so quickly.