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GWT: Week 20 Jaguars @ Patriots


gopherwrestler

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots  

139 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • Jacksonville Jaguars
    • New England Patriots


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Two trends not favoring Jacksonville:

1. The last time the road team won an AFC Championship game when it was the early game was 2005-06 (Steelers at Denver). Since then, only twice has the road team won the first game and both were in the NFC (2010-11 Packers, 2012-13 49ers). The last time a road team won an AFC-CG that did not involve the Patriots (they did it twice, Baltimore did it to them in 2012-13), you have to go back to the Ravens over the Raiders in 2000-01

2. Only once in the 50+ year Super Bowl era has a defending SB champion the following season lost a conference championship game at home, 1990-91, Giants over 49ers

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1 hour ago, CKS97 said:

Two trends not favoring Jacksonville:

1. The last time the road team won an AFC Championship game when it was the early game was 2005-06 (Steelers at Denver). Since then, only twice has the road team won the first game and both were in the NFC (2010-11 Packers, 2012-13 49ers). The last time a road team won an AFC-CG that did not involve the Patriots (they did it twice, Baltimore did it to them in 2012-13), you have to go back to the Ravens over the Raiders in 2000-01

2. Only once in the 50+ year Super Bowl era has a defending SB champion the following season lost a conference championship game at home, 1990-91, Giants over 49ers

NFL history is a purely academic thing.

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5 hours ago, Speedyg said:

Can't believe this poll is that close and even media is starting to pick jags in this match up. what in the what what is going on.

Part of it is that there are ancillary things that make people think the Jags can do it. Like Coughlin, the idea that a strong pass rush with no blitzing is the way to beat the Patriots (it helps but it's a lot more than that), Brady's hand, etc. 

Also part of it is just that the build up is full of people making the case for the underdogs and it's having an impact. 2 years ago a Colts team that the Pats dominated in the regular season ended up upsetting the favored Broncos in the playoffs and for a week the story was about how Luck arrived and this was potentially his year, etc. Even though there was no reason to think they'd do it, there was a story that made people fall in love with picking them. 

Now the Jaguars are a very good defense. However this is the biggest offensive test they will face all season and this is one of the better defenses they will see all season. And while the Jags are a very good team, they are a very beatable team. A team the Pats just rocked beat the Jaguars twice, one of the worst teams in the league with Brady's former back up also beat them. The Jags also lost to a Jets team that the Patriots beat twice. It's sports so I don't guarantee anything because we've seen crazier things happen. However, realistically the smart money is still on the Patriots.

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