2019 Draft Discussion

[Golfman]

34 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I was honestly waiting for you to blankly post the stats of the players. WRs produce more yards because they have more targets, doesn't mean they are more valuable to their team. 

Now I'm gonna need to see the targets of the WR's mentioned vs. the TE mentioned. I'm guessing it's within 10%, yet the production isn't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those TE's had more targets but that is just a hunch. 

[vegas492]

54 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

There were 2-3 elite TEs in the NFL last year, Kelce Ertz and Kittle. Gronk was over the hump. I would say there are 4 elite WRs, Antonio, Julio, Odell and Hopkins. I would rather have one of the tight ends, opens up more match-up scenarios imo

I"m thinking Adams is also elite.  Then again, I"m biased.  But, he was the lone GB threat, almost always double covered and he still put up amazing numbers.

[PossibleCabbage]

I think the story on running backs in the end is that there is very little difference in terms of "how much he helps the team" between "Very good RBs who just aren't in that elite tier" and "running backs who are slightly above replacement level."  So if you actually have one of those elite RBs, it's meaningful but if you swing and miss in an attempt to land one (e.g. Richardson in Cleveland) it's extremely painful.

So based on this I would say RBs are very risky picks, since moreso than a lot of positions you are liable to end up with a 4th or 5th round value with a high 1.  Even when you do land an elite one, it's conceivable he will leave for the most money ASAP (perhaps before you are able to compete) or his production will make your team successful enough that you end up in that draft range where you can't land quality pieces at premium positions (c.f. Peterson, Adrian).

[rcon14]

1 minute ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I think the story on running backs in the end is that there is very little difference in terms of "how much he helps the team" between "Very good RBs who just aren't in that elite tier" and "running backs who are slightly above replacement level."  So if you actually have one of those elite RBs, it's meaningful but if you swing and miss in an attempt to land one (e.g. Richardson in Cleveland) it's extremely painful.

So based on this I would say RBs are very risky picks, since moreso than a lot of positions you are liable to end up with a 4th or 5th round value with a high 1.  Even when you do land an elite one, it's conceivable he will leave for the most money ASAP (perhaps before you are able to compete) or his production will make your team successful enough that you end up in that draft range where you can't land quality pieces at premium positions (c.f. Peterson, Adrian).

The replacement level at the position is super high (i.e. it's very easy to find competent RBs who provide pretty similar production virtually anywhere). And when you can get decent production out of RB for day 3 salaries, why would you ever pay a RB decent money or draft a RB early in the draft? Use that money (and/or draft capital) somewhere else where it'd actually make a difference.

[Arthur Penske]

Better but still not great

 

[JBURGE]

44 minutes ago, Golfman said:

1 hour ago, JBURGE said:

I was honestly waiting for you to blankly post the stats of the players. WRs produce more yards because they have more targets, doesn't mean they are more valuable to their team. 

Now I'm gonna need to see the targets of the WR's mentioned vs. the TE mentioned. I'm guessing it's within 10%, yet the production isn't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those TE's had more targets but that is just a hunch. 

I want the tight end for the matchups, and if the tight end is a + blocker, that adds value that rarely any WR can add.

[thrILL!]

Who’s the last player that about fell off the face of the earth after a horrendous leadup to the draft?  Vontaze Burfict?  He had disastrous numbers and even worse red flags.  He’s carved... uhhh... a niche (?) for himself in the league.  If Polite can keep his head on straight, he might put it together and get to that 2nd contract sooner.  

[Leader]

10 minutes ago, thrILL! said:

Who’s the last player that about fell off the face of the earth after a horrendous leadup to the draft?  Vontaze Burfict?  He had disastrous numbers and even worse red flags.  He’s carved... uhhh... a niche (?) for himself in the league.  If Polite can keep his head on straight, he might put it together and get to that 2nd contract sooner.  

Harold Landry didnt fall off the face of the earth (necessarily.....) but he was slated to go to us last year at 14 - but medical reports surfaced late and he dropped to 41 (Round 2)......which represents a couple of bucks out the door. 

[Dubz41]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I went out for lunch and was able to catch an interview with Brian Burns on Sirius XM, Pro Football Channel.  I'm going to summarize the questions and his answers.

(And I found him to be very well spoken.  Witty.  Intelligent.)

Q: How's your weight?  You cutting weight, putting more on, or keeping the weight you have?

A: I'm keeping the weight on.  It is really easy.  Had a great training program to help me along.  It's good weight.

Q: What would you have run in the 40 had you stayed at 235?

A: I would have beaten Metcalf!

Q: What position do you want to play in the NFL?

A:  I'll play anywhere anyone wants me.

Q:  We aren't NFL teams here, just us talking, what position do you really want to play?

A:  (Pause)  3-4.  On the outside.

Q:  Why?  Do you just want to rush all the time?  We know it is what you do really well.

A:  I want to move around.  I don't want the defense to know where I'm coming from.  I don't want them knowing where I am going to be on every play.

Q:  Do you want to drop and cover?

A:  Absolutely!  I love to drop.  WR's aren't used to seeing guys my size running with them.  I want to get the ball and take it to the house!

Q:  What other positions have you played on the football field?

A:  When I was young, I played Center.  Scored 3 times, all on fumbles.

Q:  What do you look for or at when visiting teams?

A:  I want to get the "feel" of the building.  I want to see all the coaches and get their vibe.  I want to see who is genuine and who isn't.

Q:  What do you do for fun?....I think we have something in common there.

A:  I love the movies.  I have an AMC card, you guys know that.  

Q:  What kind of movies?

A:  Superhero movies.  I'm all about Marvel, I stay away from DC.  I just watched Capt. Marvel.  She's a BAAAAD woman.  Gonna be great to see her in Endgame.  Endgame.  3 hours and 2 minutes of non-stop adrenaline.  I can't wait!

...and that is when I got out of the car.  Just a fun interview.  There was a lot more banter there, but that was the jest of the conversation that I was listening to.  

Burns football IQ and IQ in general get overlooked.  I know he isn't quite the mold Pettine has now, but it doesn't mean Pettine wouldn't just effing love this guy.  Look how much Pettine squeezed out of Fack last year- just imagine what he could do with an uber athletic guy like Burns.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, thrILL! said:

Who’s the last player that about fell off the face of the earth after a horrendous leadup to the draft?  Vontaze Burfict?  He had disastrous numbers and even worse red flags.  He’s carved... uhhh... a niche (?) for himself in the league.  If Polite can keep his head on straight, he might put it together and get to that 2nd contract sooner.  

L'ael Collins

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

 

Q:  What do you do for fun?....I think we have something in common there.

A:  I love the movies.  I have an AMC card, you guys know that.  

Q:  What kind of movies?

A:  Superhero movies.  I'm all about Marvel, I stay away from DC.  I just watched Capt. Marvel.  She's a BAAAAD woman.  Gonna be great to see her in Endgame.  Endgame.  3 hours and 2 minutes of non-stop adrenaline.  I can't wait!

...and that is when I got out of the car.  Just a fun interview.  There was a lot more banter there, but that was the jest of the conversation that I was listening to.  

Off the board for me! These comic book movies are getting old, darn old. 

[PossibleCabbage]

1 hour ago, thrILL! said:

Who’s the last player that about fell off the face of the earth after a horrendous leadup to the draft?  Vontaze Burfict?  He had disastrous numbers and even worse red flags.  He’s carved... uhhh... a niche (?) for himself in the league.  If Polite can keep his head on straight, he might put it together and get to that 2nd contract sooner.  

I mean, Ronald Jones had the worst pre-draft process I can remember and he still went in the 2nd round.

[FinneasGage]

Yeah I feel like Brian Burns has a CWood vibe in terms of commanding a presence and getting guys serious about competing. Love his vibe. Added value there. Trust him to develop more than anyone else in the class probably 

[AlexGreen#20]

3 hours ago, Dubz41 said:

Burns football IQ and IQ in general get overlooked.  I know he isn't quite the mold Pettine has now, but it doesn't mean Pettine wouldn't just effing love this guy.  Look how much Pettine squeezed out of Fack last year- just imagine what he could do with an uber athletic guy like Burns.

Black flagged for liking Captain Marvel imo

[Arthur Penske]