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dll2000

What is Sam Darnold's Trade Value?

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21 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Here's the way I look at it.. There are a couple reasons why you would trade for a QB like this..

1. You are a team without a QB who is looking for a potential franchise guy

This is tricky.. This is where the Dolphins fell when they acquired Rosen. They looked at him and must have thought Rosen still had more upside potential than any rookie they could acquire in the 2nd round. I don't know if that team actually exists. Team like the Jags or Football Team or Broncos probably don't see him as an upside over their current youth prospects and would probably just draft a guy if they were willing to move on. I think Darnold actually has LESS value than Rosen did, because Rosen was still earlier in his career at the time, which left a team like the Dolphins thinking maybe he had more upside than he actually had.

2. You are a team with a veteran QB who is looking for a backup - with the potential for him to take over down the line (think Bucs, Saints, Steelers types)

This is probably the best shot at receiving some actual value. Maybe a late 2nd or 3rd as a draft pick in that range will likely not yield a player with higher upside OR more readiness to fill in now, and they won't have the draft capital to draft a guy in the 1-12 overall range.

I don't mind the concept of going the Cards route and drafting Lawrence and moving Darnold for a day 2 pick - but I think the options are going to be limited which might result in a not so great return. And like someone else said, if you do that, you HAVE to make more of an effort to give Lawrence the tools he needs

Agreed. Especially if you have the surrounding roster/coaching and can afford to stash a guy like that. A 2nd round pick for those teams is usually worth the "gamble". The Saints, Bucs, and Steelers would all fit the bill, as would perhaps a team like the Colts or Bears. The Patriots would also make a lot of sense, but it being a divisional opponent, that's very unlikely if not a dealbreaker altogether.

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2 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

I'd be intrigued with Darnold but I don't see us picking as low as 16. I think we're looking at a top 10 selection.

Right

Let's assume Lawrence and Fields are long gone

But would you prefer the 3rd best QB in the draft, with a full 4 or 5 year rookie contract, or Sam Darnold, who either fails and is a wasted 1st rounder, or succeeds and you immediately have to pay

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Darnold's trade value will be impacted by the other QBs available on the market:


Andy Dalton Depending on how he does in Dallas, he may be a starting option again
Matt Ryan - ATL commences rebuild
Derek Carr -  2020 he either cements his job as starter or delivers his dismissal
Alex Smith- looking for a new home
Trubisky vs Darnold...hmmm...how about neither ?

Stafford ? could be time for a change
Bridgewater - just a bridge or this is their guy ?
Winston/Hill one of them can leave NO
Garoppolo might become available

If several of those guys are available, they will depress the market for Darnold

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52 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Any pick from 20 and beyond in the 1st round. Ironically, if you made it to pick 20 in the draft, you likely do not need a QB.

True, but a team like the Steelers, Saints, or Bucs could be looking for their next guy as well. 

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1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Legit question as I have not really watched him.   Obviously he hasn't had success, but is it him or team?

How good is Sam Darnold in a better situation?  Is he recoverable?  I know he is still young as he entered young.  

Jets fans opinions appreciated.

For others what would you give up for him?   I actually asked this question earlier this year of Jamal Adams and IRL he brought in far more than I and basically any of the thread thought.

What would you trade for your team for Darnold, if anything?

I imagine Jets get #1 pick and take the Clemson QB.   Any Jets fans against this?
 

 

I still believe he is recoverable.  Never mind what outcome of two quarterbacks but I think we should treat Darnold as next Teddy Bridgewater.   Many teams won't rush and reserve Darnold's rookie contract but will wait until he becomes fa and/or gamble on Darnold's value getting lower and lower.

Colts and Steelers may make a trade for Darnold in the mid season if their starting qb isn't able to continue playing for respective team.  Joe Douglas may take an advantage of any team in distress for better trade return during the season. As for off season activity, I don't know if Darnold stays with new HC or will be traded away for certain value or draft positional strategy.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

True, but a team like the Steelers, Saints, or Bucs could be looking for their next guy as well. 

I definitely see the two most likely options being the Steelers or Bucs, but nobody has mentioned Jameis Winston yet. I don't think the Saints picked him up to solely be a backup. I think he could replace Drew Brees at some point, even if it is only for one season. I think it would get too crowded with Brees, Winston, and Darnold, unless Brees retires after this season.

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Just now, UncleAdamz said:

I definitely see the two most likely options being the Steelers or Bucs, but nobody has mentioned Jameis Winston yet. I don't think the Saints picked him up to solely be a backup. I think he could replace Drew Brees at some point, even if it is only for one season. I think it would get too crowded with Brees, Winston, and Darnold, unless Brees retires after this season.

Hill and Winston are why I don't think Saints will want Darnold right now.  After Saints find a way to fix salary cap after this season, Darnold could be a solid option.

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1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Well you have 4 1st round picks in next two years and will get to draft at top of each round.   With a rookie QB you should have a boatload of cap room next 4 years.  Add to that whatever you can recoup from Darnold.   Maybe you trade for 2022 pick(s) to spread out talent base so you aren't re-upping everyone at same time.

If you draft well and upgrade O line with proven FAs you can build a solid team in 2-3 years.

Don't worry about RB or WRs.   Start with a good O line and a good QB.   The rest will come together once those are in place.

I wouldn't mind Jets job with that starting situation as long as I get to run organization way I see fit to start building a program.  

You still run into a situation where your putting a new head coach in there  that needs to establish an entire offense. When the entire team is trying to learn a new system, and the coach is trying to get guys to buy in your going to ask a lot more of a qb. It's a mistake to hope a rookie is going to be the guy to oversee those changes. 

Ideally, you have a foundation in place. A scheme where you have the line upfront that is capable of making line calls to help the young qb. Wrs that know the routes and that can break off them when its beneficial. RBS that can blitz pick up. A qb is far more likely to succeed when they get brought along properly. Asking too much too early forces the development of bad habits because they get overwhelmed and feel like they have to do everything and be perfect.

If the Jets deal Lawrence, conservatively they should be getting like 2 firsts two seconds and two thirds. Sign a guy like Dalton to compete with Darnold next year and use the capital acquire the talent they are sorely lacking.

They'd even have enough capital left over that they could potentially move up for a QB next year if they need to.

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1 hour ago, Tk3 said:

Right

Let's assume Lawrence and Fields are long gone

But would you prefer the 3rd best QB in the draft, with a full 4 or 5 year rookie contract, or Sam Darnold, who either fails and is a wasted 1st rounder, or succeeds and you immediately have to pay

Personally, I'm taking the rookie QB and associated contract no question.

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3rd-4th. No team looking for a starter ASAP is going to trade for him, that wouldn't make sense. What team that doesn't have a franchise QB would take a Sam Darnold whose rookie deal ends in 2 years over drafting a QB and getting them for 5 years? Forget QB evaluation, the economics here just make choosing Darnold in this scenario silly, unless you are really in love with him, which I doubt any GM is.

I would think it will be a competitive team w/ an aging vet. Steelers, Colts, Bucs come to mind.

I'm thinking this would be like the the Saints trade for Bridgewater (which I believe was a 3rd rounder). Obviously Brees ended up proving he's got more in the tank and they opted to roll with him for another year, but I'm pretty sure the idea behind acquiring him was getting a good backup plus potential heir to Brees' throne. That's the type of team I see trading for Sam. Nobody is going to chose 2 years of rookie deal Sam over 5 years of a 2021 prospect, among teams that need a QB now.

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Pretty sure Darnold s cap hit for next season is 9.7 million.  Tyrod Taylor s cap hit this season 7.5 million.    In a flat cap, how many teams want to dedicate that much cap to a back up?    So if a team is a trading for they view him as a starter.  Now a team could trade for him and still draft a Qb 1st rd.  In a round about way that happened with RG3 and Cousins.   

If he s traded, I feel day 3.  I m hoping Darnold gets cut and can go find the right situation for him.  There are at least 5 teams with QBs over 35.  Maybe 1 or 2 will be picking in the top 15.  

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8 hours ago, drew39k said:

I'm a jets fan and 100% against picking Lawrence and trading Darnold. Though that's mostly independent of my belief in Darnold as the guy. Honestly I'm fairly certain the Jets ruined him. Probably gonna need to sit for a year somewhere and get plugged into an offense that has an identity.

The Jets cannot continue to think the answer to building a competitive team is a savior QB. They need to build a team. Get a head coach in there and establish an offense. Build up the offense while Darnold or a veteran take snaps. Once the team has a solid foundation, if Darnold has failed, sign a vet and draft someone to sit and learn for a year. 

To just keep throwing talent young qbs into a dumpster fire of an offense is idiotic.

All that said, I do think the Jets are dumb, so I do think they take Lawrence. I'd hope they could get a 2nd for Darnold but, I'm guessing it would be a third(maybe conditionally rising to a second or even first)

i cant fathom having the take that the Jets with the #1 overall pick should not take Lawrence. every argument you made could easily have been applied to the Cardinals when they had the top pick not too long ago. it wasn't necessarily that people were sold on Rosen, but that it was a disastrous spot for a young QB. 

you take the franchise QB, period.

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2 hours ago, Turnobili said:

i cant fathom having the take that the Jets with the #1 overall pick should not take Lawrence. every argument you made could easily have been applied to the Cardinals when they had the top pick not too long ago. it wasn't necessarily that people were sold on Rosen, but that it was a disastrous spot for a young QB. 

you take the franchise QB, period.

The Jets have done that time and again(as have many other teams, FYI) and it's a strategy the constantly fails and leads to years of franchise struggles.  Teams that are consistently relevant do so by building a team and creating identity then shaping their QB room. 

It's great that the Cardinals may have found a franchise guy in Murray, but let's not pretend there aren't weapons in place for Murray to rely on. He's had Fitz there to bail him out and now has Hopkins too. In fact, I just watched Murray make a bunch of bad throws against a terrible Jets team. The kid has talent but is prone to just as many bad plays as Darnold. The primary difference is that he has player that can bail him out while Darnold doesn't. 

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The league has alot of QBs in it now, even as a Bears fan Trubisky is a solid backup to a team. Darnold is kind of stuck.

Im pretty sure Matt Ryan will be available and I cant really think of a good fit for him even.

Honestly Wash is the only team I can think of that is just completely without a QB.

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