Biggest Threat to Kansas City

[Shady Slim]

7 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

The Chiefs aren’t unbeatable, but some of these teams people are mentioning as a legitimate threat to them are kidding themselves. This stat isn’t quite as sexy as normal because COVID has neutered a bit of home field advantage, but that’s still 5 very quality teams they’ve beat this year.

you feel a bit more fallible than last year, that is for sure.

i think the key to beating KC is flipping the script with points off of takeaways. miami showed what happens when you don't score off a turnover against the chiefs, but imo a pittsburgh or a buffalo has the best chance of doing it.

[JAF-N72EX]

6 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

The Chiefs aren’t unbeatable, but some of these teams people are mentioning as a legitimate threat to them are kidding themselves. This stat isn’t quite as sexy as normal because COVID has neutered a bit of home field advantage, but that’s still 5 very quality teams they’ve beat this year.

I agree the biggest threat to KC is KC but I wouldn't say some of the teams mentioned here are kidding themselves either.  

 

[Archimedes]

Just now, Shady Slim said:

you feel a bit more fallible than last year, that is for sure.

i think the key to beating KC is flipping the script with points off of takeaways. miami showed what happens when you don't score off a turnover against the chiefs, but imo a pittsburgh or a buffalo has the best chance of doing it.

Buffalo yes... Pittsburgh, not sure, because their offense has been inconsistent this year. I’d probably still give the Steelers a punchers chance, but I like their chances less than the Bills.

[Archimedes]

Just now, JAF-N72EX said:

I agree the biggest threat to KC is KC but I wouldn't say some of the teams mentioned here are kidding themselves either.  

 

The Ravens or Browns aren’t beating the Chiefs without some really, really fortuitous luck. Never say never but if we’re talking flukey stuff then anyone can beat anyone. 

The Titans are a stretch too because they’re not slowing down the Chiefs offense, and I don’t think they’re built to keep up in a track meet the with the Chiefs offense.

 

[Shady Slim]

3 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

Buffalo yes... Pittsburgh, not sure, because their offense has been inconsistent this year. I’d probably still give the Steelers a punchers chance, but I like their chances less than the Bills.

i'd say you're probably right - a bit of homerism in me putting the steelers up there. i think they're probably more likely than buffalo to force turnovers, which balances a bit their chances of scoring off them being lower.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, WheatieMan said:

No... 2016. Last year. Even the hideous 2011 playoff game off the bye. He’s had as many big chokes in the playoffs as he’s had wins. I get that the stats looked good in the Cardinal losses, and the SB run obviously, but that was ten years ago.

You're totally right. OMG I completely forgot that Rodgers played D, coached, AND told his staff to play LaDarius Gunter on Julio Jones. 

[Forge]

2 hours ago, WheatieMan said:

No... 2016. Last year. Even the hideous 2011 playoff game off the bye. He’s had as many big chokes in the playoffs as he’s had wins. I get that the stats looked good in the Cardinal losses, and the SB run obviously, but that was ten years ago.

You aren't seriously trying to put last year's game on him, are you? That Packers team was brutally outmatched.  The niners were just a flat out better team and a horrific matchup to boot

[rocky_rams]

Thought it would be the Rams but now I think it’s the Bills 

[Chiefer]

Saints had a good shot if Brees starts the game off playing better

[Archimedes]

Very unusual situation for the Chiefs. The Falcons game doesn’t matter, assuming I used ESPN’s playoff machine correctly.

If the Chiefs beat the Chargers, regardless of what the Steelers or Bills do, they get the 1 seed, even if they lose to the Falcons.

If the Chiefs beat the Falcons and lose the Chargers, but the Steelers win out, the Steelers get the 1 seed.

If the Steelers lose one more game, no matter who to, the Chiefs get the 1 seed, even if they lose their final 2 and the Bills win their final 2.

So the Chiefs could theoretically rest all their starters next week to see how things shake out, and then call in the Calvary to try to close the deal against the Chargers if the Steelers win this week and next week. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team rest their starters in the next to the last game of the season and then play them in the last. Wonder if Andy will go that route?

Edit.

Nvm. There is a very, very small chance the Bills can indeed get the 1 seed if all 3 teams finish at 13-3. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Archimedes

[Awsi Dooger]

As a 1972 Dolphins season ticket holder I now view the Mahomes Chiefs the same way I viewed the Brady Patriots:

I don't care how many Super Bowls they win...as none of them include an undefeated season

Edited December 21, 2020 by Awsi Dooger

[Hunter2_1]

KC down to a patchwork OL, and they still go into NO and win. Did they ever not have a lead as well?

[Magnifico]

45 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

KC down to a patchwork OL, and they still go into NO and win. Did they ever not have a lead as well?

NO lead in the 3rd quarter after the Latavius Murray TD.

I think with Michael Thomas, Smith and a less rusty Brees that NO has a shot.

I just don't trust NO to reach the Superbowl.

[Broncofan]

I don't think NO is getting through the NFC with that O (although that D gives them a shot).

Honestly, with CEH now out - the KC O is more 1-dimensional.   Bell isn't a workhorse RB anymore, and his vision/patience don't translate quite as well in KC.   That means you can start to play KC more on the pass end in neutral situations.   Of course it's still Mahomes - but the point being, their ability to take the run when D's give it to them isn't nearly as strong now.

So, if I look for teams that have a shot:

-Good run game to shorten the ball game, and attack the weakest part of KC's D

-Strong pass D's that can generate TO's

-Someone who's faced Mahomes before in the last 2 years.   The first time facing this O since 2019-20 is a major adjustment.

So, to me that includes 3 teams:

-BUF - their run game isn't quite as conventional, though, but the pass D and Allen/RB's is there.   Plus, they've taken their lumps vs. KC this year.

-IND - better run game, strong pass D / TO potential. 

CLE would be there in 2021 with their secondary returning from injury and the chance to make it a complete D by upgrading LB play, but I don't have them this year.    PIT does not have the run game or any run game - that's too tough of a draw, to then get into extended drives that keep Mahomes & co. on the sidelines.

I have a tough time seeing any team except maybe LAR who fits the bill above - the problem is I also think they have a tough time getting out of the NFC.    BUF has Allen, while IND/LAR QB's don't inspire much confidence.   It's why KC remains the odds-on favorite - even when they are clearly more 1-dimensional on O this year, and the D continues to show its Achilles in run D. 

[soflbillsfan]

In the AFC I think the Bills and Titans will give KC the best fight. Both have been consistent on offense as of lately while both teams can handle long drives. Titans with more ground game while bills have a diverse group of WR including John Brown (who is coming off IR and will be ready for the playoffs who they have had for a couple of games this year) in short to deep passing. Both can chew some clock and keep Mahomes and co off the field for long periods of time as well as wearing out the defense. I think the Bills ability to strike fast is higher then the titans but the titans are higher then the bills when it comes to grinding out the minutes. Both defenses have been fairly good at times of need, with a healthy Bills d they have stepped up the past few weeks keeping the run game down while forcing the opponent to go 3 and out more often. 

On the NFC side of things I think GB and Seattle will be the only teams to be competitive offensively but the defenses arent that great and both teams have major holes. I think a Carrol coach team will react better as he has been there before over a Lafleur coached team but overall I think both will be the best chance against KC in the NFC. 

When it comes down to it I think the AFC Championship Game will be more competitive vs KC then the Superbowl as KC will end up taking it all again this year. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by soflbillsfan