2021 GB Roster & Free Agents

[MacReady]

No help is coming.

It's leaving. 

[HighCalebR]

52 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Watt had 48 pressures last season while being doubled teamed more than any other player on the Edge. Preston had 26 pressures I believe. Facts are facts.

Not to mention Watt would replace Lowry's snaps. Gary would replace Smith. That's called a win win.

Who's the drop backer in this situation? Between what the Rams showed and what Barry coordinated last there's a high probability we're running an over type SAM backer. Preston is the only legit one on the roster ATM.

[packfanfb]

19 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Who's the drop backer in this situation? Between what the Rams showed and what Barry coordinated last there's a high probability we're running an over type SAM backer. Preston is the only legit one on the roster ATM.

Under a "we sign Watt" scenario, in a base 4-3 under look, you're probably looking a Gary (SLB)-Watt-Clark-Keke-Z. 

Again, this all hypothetical and I don't think Watt ends up a Packer anyways. Im just saying if he does, I think Preston is gone for sure.

[packfanfb]

59 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

No help is coming.

It's leaving. 

You could argue our window was 2019-2020. It may be closed. Going to take some real good GMing by Gute to put together a squad capable of getting back there again in 2021. We'll see if he makes the right moves.

[Norm]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Watt had 48 pressures last season while being doubled teamed more than any other player on the Edge. Preston had 26 pressures I believe. Facts are facts.

Not to mention Watt would replace Lowry's snaps. Gary would replace Smith. That's called a win win.

How many did Gary have last year?

Why can't he take that role? Isn't that there he was effective from?

Your endless obsession with outside players knows no bounds. I just hope you know that. You only see the good in outsiders and only the bad in our guys. 

Also Pettine is a dumbass so there's that too. 

[Norm]

5 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

I'll be the guy to say it, I absolutely think King can be a #1 CB in the NFL, he's just a lot more scheme dependent.  He wasn't even bad this year; 488 yards and 1 TD on 57 attempts isn't back-breaking no matter how you try to spin it.  Here's a question: anyone think Watt has exactly the same numbers if he isn't playing on a defense with Tuitt/Heyward/Dupree that blitzes 40+% of the time?  This isn't a commentary on Watt; he's absolutely elite.  But your play is always going to be determined by what the defense asks of you and the help they give you.  Watt is an elite player on a defense that consistently gives him as good a match-ups as a player that good can get.  King is a solid player on a defense that consistently asks him to do what he's worst at with no help whatsoever.  They aren't going to have similar levels of performance.

You said it already but I just told my old man today that signing King back on a decent deal with a new DC has a better shot of looking great than terrible.

I'm not against Watt but this idea he's going to come be Reggie is so overblown.

[packfanfb]

2 hours ago, Norm said:

How many did Gary have last year?

Why can't he take that role? Isn't that there he was effective from?

Your endless obsession with outside players knows no bounds. I just hope you know that. You only see the good in outsiders and only the bad in our guys. 

Also Pettine is a dumbass so there's that too. 

According to PFF, Gary had 46 pressures. He played around 44% of the snaps. Preston had 26 pressures, playing around 79% of the snaps. 

This raises the first issue. Forget about Watt for a second. Just focus on Gary. Are we going to play him only 44% of the snaps against next season? If we agree Gary should basically replace Preston and play +75% of the snaps, and therefore, we assume Preston drops down to around 50% of the snaps, is it the best use of our limited resources to pay Preston $16m to be on the bench 50% of the time? Gary is ready to be a "starter" or every down player. He was arguably our best pass rusher down the stretch last season and had the highest pressure rate (18.7%) of any pass rusher in the NFL from Week 10 onward. He's not a "role" player in 2021. So, regardless of whether we keep Preston or not, he's our No. 3 guy going into the season. That's A LOT of money for a No. 3 EDGE player, especially for a team that is currently $10m over the cap. 

So, let me state this another way: the consideration of letting Preston walk has a lot more to do with Gary's progression than it does with potentially adding Watt. This is not a "hey, I like this guy better than this guy." Watt and Preston help the Packers in completely different ways. 

Edited February 20, 2021 by packfanfb

[Nick_gb]

21 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

According to PFF, Gary had 46 pressures. He played around 44% of the snaps. Preston had 26 pressures, playing around 79% of the snaps. 

This raises the first issue. Forget about Watt for a second. Just focus on Gary. Are we going to play him only 44% of the snaps against next season? If we agree Gary should basically replace Preston and play +75% of the snaps, and therefore, we assume Preston drops down to around 50% of the snaps, is it the best use of our limited resources to pay Preston $16m to be on the bench 50% of the time? Gary is ready to be a "starter" or every down player. He was arguably our best pass rusher down the stretch last season and had the highest pressure rate (18.7%) of any pass rusher in the NFL from Week 10 onward. He's not a "role" player in 2021. So, regardless of whether we keep Preston or not, he's our No. 3 guy going into the season. That's A LOT of money for a No. 3 EDGE player, especially for a team that is currently $10m over the cap. 

So, let me state this another way: the consideration of letting Preston walk has a lot more to do with Gary's progression than it does with potentially adding Watt. This is not a "hey, I like this guy better than this guy." Watt and Preston help the Packers in completely different ways. 

That's the thing though, I don't think anyone is expecting him to remain on this team at that price. The argument here isn't whether we should keep him at that price, it's whether we should cut him out right or look to get that cap hit/pay down. Everyone automatically jumps to the conclusion that he should be cut, but he's a valuable piece of this defense even at 50% of the snaps and provides us valuable depth IF you can get that price down. 

[AlexGreen#20]

You don't get out of Preston Smiths 16 million if you cut him. You get out of 8 million. You still pay him 8 million to play for somebody else. People talking about his 16 million number aren't looking at that right. 

There is way more than enough snaps for 3 starters. Guys shouldn't be playing more than 70% of snaps at that position. When you factor in pressure package usage, having 3 OLBs who all play 70% of snaps isn't difficult to imagine. It's fairly easy in fact. 

When you take both of those things into account, the argument for keeping Preston isn't difficult to make. And that's before you invite the looming hypothetical question, what do you do if Gary blows out an ACL in Training Camp.

[beekay414]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

You don't get out of Preston Smiths 16 million if you cut him. You get out of 8 million. You still pay him 8 million to play for somebody else. People talking about his 16 million number aren't looking at that right. 

There is way more than enough snaps for 3 starters. Guys shouldn't be playing more than 70% of snaps at that position. When you factor in pressure package usage, having 3 OLBs who all play 70% of snaps isn't difficult to imagine. It's fairly easy in fact. 

When you take both of those things into account, the argument for keeping Preston isn't difficult to make. And that's before you invite the looming hypothetical question, what do you do if Gary blows out an ACL in Training Camp.

So can we reasonably expect a restructure for P?

[ThatJerkDave]

30 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

So can we reasonably expect a restructure for P?

Just taking a quick glance, they may try to make him a last possible move.  As of now, he becomes a FA in 2022, which would be Gary's 5th year option year.  If he is restructured, he is probably on the payroll for 2022 and beyond.  Bahktiari, Clark, and probably Adams and Jaire will be very expensive at that point and the trajectory of Gary looks like he won't be cheap either.  In my opinion, I don't want Preston Smith in 3 years, but the 2021 Packers will be better with Preston Smith than without him.  I don't mess with it unless I have to (which we probably do).  But what do I know? I am just some jerk on the internet.

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Just taking a quick glance, they may try to make him a last possible move.  As of now, he becomes a FA in 2022, which would be Gary's 5th year option year.  If he is restructured, he is probably on the payroll for 2022 and beyond.  Bahktiari, Clark, and probably Adams and Jaire will be very expensive at that point and the trajectory of Gary looks like he won't be cheap either.  In my opinion, I don't want Preston Smith in 3 years, but the 2021 Packers will be better with Preston Smith than without him.  I don't mess with it unless I have to (which we probably do).  But what do I know? I am just some jerk on the internet.

You're not just "some jerk" you're "THAT jerk" god damn it. Have some self respect!

[Brit Pack]

I keep going on about this but who did Tampa have beyond JPP and Shaq at OLB? It was William Gholston. 

JPP played close to 90% of the snaps at 943
Shaq played just 80% of the snaps at 822
Gholston played around 60% of the snaps at 606

Beyond those three guys nothing significant in OLB snaps and production. Very similar ratios to what we had in Green Bay with Z.Smith, P.Smith and Gary.

Gholston even put up similar production to P.Smith 3 sacks, 8TFL, 20 QB hits
P.Smith 4 sacks, 7TFL, 11 QB hits and Preston did that on a load more snaps than Gholston

Gholston salary in 2021 will be $5.5m and last season was $4.75m That for me makes sense for your 3rd rusher.

P.Smith last season cost us  $13.5m, this season will cost us $16m and the following season will cost us $16.5m.

I'm sorry that is overpay by 300% for the same production while also taking away snaps from Gary who is on a cheap deal.

As much as we want studs across the board and be three deep on all positions you can't pay that man this much. Especially when we are so tight to the cap. We'll save $12m if we cut him Post June 1st.

I hope he would do a restructure but I find player egos prevent that from happening and more than that what is in it for him to restructure? He is due $33.5m over the next two years.  He only has $8m as a signing bonus left and $4.5m a roster bonus due 3rd day of the league year. He is 28, would probably would prefer to be cut, get a new shinny contract with more guarantee money, maybe hope for a Dante Fowler type deal, 3 year 45m, $29m guaranteed, by a team needy of edge help, while still pocketing a further $8m signing bonus from the Packers. 

I don't see the incentive to do a restructure for him and I see the need for the Packers to make the cut for an overpaid 3rd rusher in a year where there is little cap room. This seems to me a no brainer.

[mikemike778]

1 hour ago, Brit Pack said:

I keep going on about this but who did Tampa have beyond JPP and Shaq at OLB? It was William Gholston. 

JPP played close to 90% of the snaps at 943
Shaq played just 80% of the snaps at 822
Gholston played around 60% of the snaps at 606

Beyond those three guys nothing significant in OLB snaps and production. Very similar ratios to what we had in Green Bay with Z.Smith, P.Smith and Gary.

Gholston even put up similar production to P.Smith 3 sacks, 8TFL, 20 QB hits
P.Smith 4 sacks, 7TFL, 11 QB hits and Preston did that on a load more snaps than Gholston

Gholston salary in 2021 will be $5.5m and last season was $4.75m That for me makes sense for your 3rd rusher.

P.Smith last season cost us  $13.5m, this season will cost us $16m and the following season will cost us $16.5m.

I'm sorry that is overpay by 300% for the same production while also taking away snaps from Gary who is on a cheap deal.

As much as we want studs across the board and be three deep on all positions you can't pay that man this much. Especially when we are so tight to the cap. We'll save $12m if we cut him Post June 1st.

I hope he would do a restructure but I find player egos prevent that from happening and more than that what is in it for him to restructure? He is due $33.5m over the next two years.  He only has $8m as a signing bonus left and $4.5m a roster bonus due 3rd day of the league year. He is 28, would probably would prefer to be cut, get a new shinny contract with more guarantee money, maybe hope for a Dante Fowler type deal, 3 year 45m, $29m guaranteed, by a team needy of edge help, while still pocketing a further $8m signing bonus from the Packers. 

I don't see the incentive to do a restructure for him and I see the need for the Packers to make the cut for an overpaid 3rd rusher in a year where there is little cap room. This seems to me a no brainer.

Like AG20 said, you need to get the 16m out of your head. Its meaningless. We have to pay 8m of it. The only question is whether he is worth 8m.

Sure if you use a Post June designation, you can kick 4m down the road into the 2022 cap but you don't save 12m.  

[VonKarman]

4 hours ago, beekay414 said:

So can we reasonably expect a restructure for P?

We would clear 5.2M.