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Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

notthatbluestuff

By notthatbluestuff
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jebrick

jebrick

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The key for a rookie QB success is a good team around him.  When really bad teams grab that QB really high they generally do not have a good team around them.  The caveat would be teams that trade up to get the QB and teams that might have injuries or something else push them into a lot of loses.

Roethlisberger is an example of the later and Mahomes of the former.

IMHO, the best time to get a QB is when you have a good team already.  Either by trading up or getting lucky ( i.e. Seattle and Wilson).  Best thing for the Jags would be to have a stinker of a season and then trade a really high pick for lots of others and get some good players or follow the Rams path and just trade picks for proven players.

 

The Jag fans just have to hope they can build the team quickly around Lawrence before he becomes shell shocked.

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Bearerofnews

Bearerofnews

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Wait what? The Chargers were 17th in the league in rushing yards last season and Herbert was sacked 32 times. He also had Austin Ekeler (over half the season) one of the most versatile RB's in the league, Keenan Allen one of the elite WR's in the league, Mike Williams a former top 10 pick/1,000 yard WR, and Hunter Henry one of the better TE's in the league. It's not like the Chargers were a dumpster fire they went 12-4 in 2018, Rivers declined so they went 5-11 in 2019 and even with Herbert having the greatest rookie season in NFL history they still only went 7-9. 

Herbert is definitely an outlier but when you look back at like the last 20 seasons who have been the two best rookie QB's? Herbert and Luck. What's the one thing they have in common? The team that drafted them was in the playoffs, their veteran QB got hurt which resulted in a down year, then they were able to land another franchise QB and they thrived in the same situation that veteran QB was thriving in previously. 

Sacks are not how you measure an olines performance. Chargers were 31st in pass block win rate and 32nd in run block win rate. Sacks have alot to do with qbs and play calls.

Chargers ran the ball alot, because they led the league in offensive plays. They were 31st in rush DVOA and bottom 3 in ypc and tds.

They had 32nd ranked special teams in DVOA and a defense that was 24th in PPG and set an NFL record for most 16 plus point 2nd half leads given up.

Williams, Allen, Henry and Ekeler all missed a minimum of 2 games each. Herbert threw multiple tds to 4 different UDFAs.

They had a 1st year OC to boot.

 

I dont know how anyone can say Herbert landed in a good situation. That's literally as bad as ive seen.

Edited by Bearerofnews
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buno67

buno67

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11 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

 

A legit team wont go 2-14, period. They were awful.

Weird you look at that 2-14 team, they were one of the worst offenses in the league, where just the year before they were a top 5 offense...hmmm what changed??

So that ‘11 colts team returned their Coaching staff, their top rusher, returned their top5 pass catchers, returned 2-3lineman and added a 1st rd pick at LT. 

weird it’s like all they were missing was a QB...

Edited by buno67
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Daniel

Daniel

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On 9/25/2021 at 8:30 AM, Dome said:

Love this energy. Overreaction thread, but better.

 

Jaycee Horn is injury prone. Draft a CB at #8 cause of his dads name? Dude can't stay on the field for more than 2 games at a time.

 

Someone else go.

Chiefs are 1-2.  Mahomes is a bust.

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FrantikRam

FrantikRam

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5 hours ago, pwny said:

Any team can go 2-14 when they decide to tank and trot out Curtis Painter to play quarterback. That was not a team trying to win football games going 2-14. That was a decent team that quit when things didn’t go their way. 

Meanwhile, the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars are legitimately one of the worst teams in NFL history; a team that dismantled their entire roster heading into the season and set NFL records for bad play.

Trevor has no receiver as good as rookie T.Y. Hilton, let alone Reggie Wayne. Hell, Donnie Averie in his 2012 form might start for this Jaguars team. Rookie Dwayne Allen is a better receiving target than any TE on this Jags roster so far; maybe that changes with our two latest additions when they get acclimated to the offense, but not now. Vick Ballard was no world beater as a RB, but he and Donald Brown were about as effective as our run game has been so far. And Luck’s OL was significantly better than Trevor’s. The Colts defense wasn’t great, but it was 21st in points allowed. Meanwhile the Jaguars are currently, right now, in the middle of an all time record for points and TDs allowed. They are the only team in NFL history to allow 24 points and 3 TDs in 18/19 straight games. 

Like I’m genuinely confused how anyone could think that these two rosters are at all comparable. 

 

 

TY Hilton was a 4th round pick - he wasn't some special talent. He was good early on because Andrew Luck was good.

I've been there and lived through it - when the Rams drafted Sam Bradford, lines were drawn and fans stepped to one side or the other. The supporting cast was awful or Bradford was a bust. Nearly tore the fanbase apart as people lined up on either side to either proclaim he was a bust or, more frequently, downplay everything else.

Seems to me that Jaguar fans are starting to do that here. DJ Chark had 1000 yard 8 TD season with garbage QB play. Shenault was a day 2 pick last year and had 600 yards last year with Minshew, whereas Hilton had 800 with Luck. James Robinson had 1400 yards and 10 TDs his rookie year. Luck was sacked 41 times his rookie year. 2.5/game - Lawrence has been sacked 5 times in three games.

Truth is, James Robinson had a better season last year than any RB that Andrew Luck played with. His leading RB averaged less than 4 YPC most years, and only had one 1,000 yard rusher his entire career - Frank Gore.

Urban may be a bad HC, and that could certainly be part of all this.

 

But right now we can definitively say Lawrence has a long way to go. It's not like I'm saying he's a bust - Peyton and plenty of others have sucked their first year and improved.

But he's just not Andrew Luck. And it's possible he is a bust - jury is out and might be out for a while.

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MikeT14

MikeT14

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20 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

I've been there and lived through it - when the Rams drafted Sam Bradford, lines were drawn and fans stepped to one side or the other. The supporting cast was awful or Bradford was a bust. Nearly tore the fanbase apart as people lined up on either side to either proclaim he was a bust or, more frequently, downplay everything else.

Oh boy. Kirk vs RG3 was EPIC in the WFT forum. 

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pwny

pwny

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41 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

Seems to me that Jaguar fans are starting to do that here. DJ Chark had 1000 yard 8 TD season with garbage QB play. Shenault was a day 2 pick last year and had 600 yards last year with Minshew, whereas Hilton had 800 with Luck. James Robinson had 1400 yards and 10 TDs his rookie year. Luck was sacked 41 times his rookie year. 2.5/game - Lawrence has been sacked 5 times in three games.

Truth is, James Robinson had a better season last year than any RB that Andrew Luck played with. His leading RB averaged less than 4 YPC most years, and only had one 1,000 yard rusher his entire career - Frank Gore.

Box score scouting isn’t going to tell you anything about this team.

DJ Chark had a big bulk yardage year two years ago because he was the only receiver on the team that belonged playing. The Jaguars dropped back to pass the ball just under 700 times in 2019. Of course someone was going to catch a bunch of passes. Its the same reason Leonard Fournette had 75 catches when he’s never even had half that many any other year. He isn’t a player *that* talented, and never has. It’s a lot of the same thing with Shenault so far. Who else was going to get targets in 2020? 

And I’ve literally been saying this since Chark had that season while also trashing the QB play at the same time. Jaguars fans literally spent the entire off-season telling you all that you’re all wrong about our receivers and they aren’t as good as you all keep telling us they are and that we need more weapons around Trevor. So, no. This isn’t Jaguars fans trying to save face on our QB, this is Jaguars fans literally telling you the exact same thing we told you all off-season. You all refused to listen to us then, and are now all accusing us of making an about face for literally saying exactly what we’ve been saying all along. You all got hyped up about some box scores of middling players getting a lot of reps on horrendous teams.  

 

And yes, James Robinson had a better season LAST YEAR. How is the running game working this year so far? It’s not 2020, it’s 2021. For a run game to support a QB, it has to actually do that, not have done it the year prior. James Robinson had 5 carries week 1, 11 carries week 2, and 15 carries week 3. Please explain to me how this is the support that a rookie QB needs. 5 carries week 1 while the rookie QB is dropping back 52 times. This week, they mixed Robinson in more, he found success and outside of one terrible throw on a trick play that there was no positive outcome possible, Trevor looked much better across the game.

And have you genuinely watched Trevor Lawrence this year? Going purely by sack numbers is hilarious if you’ve actually watched him and how he’s consistently under pressure but getting the ball out quickly.

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rocky_rams

rocky_rams

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1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Lawrence has screamed bust this entire time for many reasons IMO. His skillset, history and expectations combined with Urban Meyer was an obvious disaster in the making. He might be good one day, I just don't think it will be for the Jaguars.

I agree. It feels like his ceiling went from Peyton Manning to Donovan McNabb (which still isn’t bad) under Meyer 

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Uncle Buck

Uncle Buck

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16 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Lawrence has screamed bust this entire time for many reasons IMO. His skillset, history and expectations combined with Urban Meyer was an obvious disaster in the making. He might be good one day, I just don't think it will be for the Jaguars.

Poor troll attempt.  D-

 

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