Norm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 hours ago, CWood21 said: Might as well bring out a Magic 8 ball at that point. Way too many variables to be critical of his projection of the 2024 cap situation. He's using a bit more projection that I'd personally care to see if you're trying to "report" the state of the Packers' cap. Wait are you him? Is this Michael Rodney posting here 2.0? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Norm said: Wait are you him? Is this Michael Rodney posting here 2.0? lol no. I just want to be able to understand the cap mechanisms. Have no desire to spend that much time on it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, incognito_man said: That's my issue with him. I manage high risk programs, so I work with risk assessment literally every day. It's so damn annoying when either extreme is taken. Show me the ACTUALS and then breakout the likelies. Don't pick and choose 90% of bad-case outcomes and roll that into your projection and ignore significant risk mitigation options in the roll-up. Obviously I understand effective cap and know we can't sign $35mil worth of vet free agents in 2024 (unless we make a lot of other moves). Ken's posts are intellectually dishonest. Time to make the Bertie Boatsman Twitter and go to war with Ken until blocked 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, coachbuns said: Wow, great insight. So you would trade him for what? You willing to have Rodgers for a 3rd rounder? And, of course Gute won't be fired on the spot if he does that, he won't. Of course I have green and gold glasses and won't be happy to give him away for a bag of donuts. Blah blah blah. You have lots of opinion on mine .. what's your take then? I said two weeks back (this is before many fans had come around to it) that I did not expect the Jets would agree to give up pick 13. I suggested back then that a 2nd this year and a conditional first (hinging on something like the Jets getting to the playoffs and/or Rodgers playing for them in 2024) or something lower if he plays only one year. Now (the Jets having since acquired an extra 2nd round pick) I'd take two 2nds in 2023 or one in 2023 and another in 2024 with little to no conditions attached........not perfect, but not terrible either. Rodgers recent play + his contract + his age and musing on retirement make it difficult for any risk-averse management to give up more......and Rodgers does appear to want to move on. If the Jets wanted a 2nd or 3rd round pick back from the Packers in 2025, if Rodgers retired after one year, the 2024 2nd the Packers get from the Jets becomes a 2024 1st. This way (as I see it), the Jets can call it a good deal as they keep their pick 13 and either still have a first a 2nd round pick in 2023, or they lose both 2nds but have nothing further to pay in 2024. The Packers get two extra good round 2 picks this year or something substantial next year. It just seems like something both sides can live with. There may be some shenanigans around swapping picks 13 and 15, especially if the parties go the route of a 2nd in 2023 and a 2nd in 2024, but essentially I expect the deal to be similar to what I outlined. If you want to look back at earlier comments you can verify what I have said earlier. Edited March 31, 2023 by OneTwoSixFive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 hours ago, Packerraymond said: We have a good enough team? Who is Jordan Love throwing the football to? I think we've got enough anti-awful players so that Gute and MLF won't get fired after this season. We're good enough for them not to be stressing that the next call from Murphy is a "getting fired" call. But it could, hypothetically, be a pretty bad team that gets a top-10 draft pick? Despite MLF pouring tons of resources and attention into the run game, our run game hasn't been more than kinda average the last couple of years. The pass game isn't likely to be especially good. The run-defense isn't likely to be especially good. The pass rush isn't likely to be especially good. Pass coverage Nixon, Savage, and Ford at nickel/safeties probably isn't likely to be especially good. Very high risk of being kinda not-especially-good at every facet of the game. But, of course hope springs eternal. Maybe some guys will step up, maybe Love will be a pleasant surprise, maybe a QB who can scramble a little bit will perk up the offense, and maybe the defense will be a pleasant surprise. Anything is possible, perhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Packerraymond said: I'm not arguing with you there. That's exactly his tactic. I'm just saying functionally we're 5-10m under the cap for next year (before touching any contracts which we've outlined can easily add another 50-60m.) Ken likes to get the Twitter hive swarming against Gute and Russ Ball, like if we was in charge instead of doing the accounting for your local insurance office, the Packers would be in better shape. Hey, hey, hey, slow your roll. No need to knock your local insurance office..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, R T said: I'm with you, it is just information and what you do with it is up to you. I've never read a single Twitter response to anything he has put out either, but it seems people here think they need to be a hater or a fanboy for him. It's ok to just process it for consideration and move on without battling to the death on every hill. ...been a lot of dying on hills around here recently on some pretty insignificant stuff, IMO. Probably that time of the year. Spring, kindda here. Combine, over. Draft, still kindda far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinceAtikevike Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said: I said two weeks back (this is before many fans had come around to it) that I did not expect the Jets would agree to give up pick 13. I suggested back then that a 2nd this year and a conditional first (hinging on something like the Jets getting to the playoffs and/or Rodgers playing for them in 2024) or something lower if he plays only one year. Now (the Jets having since acquired an extra 2nd round pick) I'd take two 2nds in 2023 or one in 2023 and another in 2024 with little to no conditions attached........not perfect, but not terrible either. Rodgers recent play + his contract + his age and musing on retirement make it difficult for any risk-averse management to give up more......and Rodgers does appear to want to move on. If the Jets wanted a 2nd or 3rd round pick back from the Packers in 2025, if Rodgers retired after one year, the 2024 2nd the Packers get from the Jets becomes a 2024 1st. This way (as I see it), the Jets can call it a good deal as they keep their pick 13 and either still have a first a 2nd round pick in 2023, or they lose both 2nds but have nothing further to pay in 2024. The Packers get two extra good round 2 picks this year or something substantial next year. It just seems like something both sides can live with. There may be some shenanigans around swapping picks 13 and 15, especially if the parties go the route of a 2nd in 2023 and a 2nd in 2024, but essentially I expect the deal to be similar to what I outlined. If you want to look back at earlier comments you can verify what I have said earlier. The reported trade ('23 2nd, '24 2nd/maybe 1st, maybe Davis, maybe a '25 give-back if Rodgers retires after 2023) is the fair value because of that contract. If Rodgers were on a pay-as-you-go (no future dead cap) contract the draft pick comp would have been higher, likely more in line with what GB fans expressed throughout this thread prior to the reports of what the comp is likely to be. In some (maybe almost entirely) sense, the market was/is suppressed to just the Jets due to the nature of the option bonus/payment and how it hits a new teams cap if/when Rodgers retires for real. Jets could still end up with a ~45 million dollar dead cap hit of their own in 2024 if Rodgers retires after 2023 + give up a '23 #2 and a '24 #1 (in the scenario where the option is exercised EDIT- option exercised and Jets do well enough for the conditional '24 to be a first). Edited March 31, 2023 by sinceAtikevike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) nm Edited April 1, 2023 by Leader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, Leader said: FU Bubba Lol I didn't mean it as offense. I just don't know why you get mad when someone doesn't agree with a tweet you posted. It's not your tweet. And if anyone else posted the same tweet, you wouldn't care if it got crapped on. But you take copy and paste personal and I don't get it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thrILL! Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 hours ago, HighCalebR said: How absolutely bat **** insane would it be after not taking a WR first round in ever. To not only doing that as soon as Rodgers leaves, but to trade up as well. I'd laugh so hard. Pettiest thing Gute could ever do. That’s how the media will run with it but that won’t be why Gute would draft a WR in the 1st rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) nm Edited April 1, 2023 by Leader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer_ESP Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Sure, it's clear that you post **** you don't even read. Why, nobody knows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Enough of the bickering, it's Friday, go logoff and have a drink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thrILL! Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, vegas492 said: ...been a lot of dying on hills around here recently on some pretty insignificant stuff, IMO. Probably that time of the year. Spring, kindda here. Combine, over. Draft, still kindda far away. Exactly. Very little has happened beyond redundant speculation and yet this thread keeps cranking out additional pages of just that. Truth be told, this thread should be pretty slow until the trade actually happens. But ppl love that fatigue lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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