Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

5/19/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"And they tell you that you're lucky
But you're so confused
'Cause you don't feel pretty
You just feel used"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL won, as usual tbh, and our beloved Quebec is saved from the fists of the devil 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.4

France: 0.4

Netherlands: 0.4

Portugal: 0.9

Japan: 0.8

Italy: 0.9 (below 1 for Italy, wow, its been a long and winding road for the Italians but great job!)

Belgium: 0.9

UK: 1.3

South Korea: 2.0

Spain: 2.1

Australia: 2.4

USA: 2.3 

Switzerland: 2.2

Czech Republic: 2.4

Sweden: 2.7

Philippines: 2.7

Singapore: 2.8 (tier 1!)

Germany: 3.7

Turkey: 3.7

Hong Kong: 3.8

Austria: 4.3

China: 5.1

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Global: 3.2

Ireland: 3.1

Canada: 3.6 (getting damn close and Quebec is doing well, so who cares about the rest of this country?)

Denmark: 4.4

Russia: 5.2

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 9.7

Iran: 12.6

Brazil: 14.5

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 22.6

USA State Level MoLs

Wow, great job!  Per the state numbers we're even lower.

MoL Deaths

Deaths inched down again today, lets see how we do over the next few days to get a good picture of the MoL, but we've been incredibly accurate. 

Canada

Wow, great job!  Quebec dropping like a rock, great job 

@JBURGE

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[vikesfan89]

59 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Menards.......................

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/03/michigan-attorney-general-accuses-menards-of-coronavirus-price-gouging-calls-price-hikes-on-bleach-face-masks-unconscionable.html

If there is a shortage,  what is so bad about raising the price some?

[naptownskinsfan]

22 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

If there is a shortage,  what is so bad about raising the price some?

Amazon and eBay got ahead of that and put limits on what people could sell things that lot for. Otherwise the toilet paper shortage would be far worse than it ended up being 

[naptownskinsfan]

3 hours ago, theJ said:

I can tell you that my Menards has been absolutely slammed lately. The other day I called in to ask about a return, and they said they had an hour long line out front because they're only letting so many people in right now. And I can confirm that the parking lot is much more busy than I remember every time I've gone previously. 

Must be that everyone has time to work on housing projects lately. 

My friend and fiance work for the largest ACE Hardware franchisee, and they've been slammed.  He runs the Maryland pellet stove/hot tub business, and since they shut down that business (save for emergency repair and install) he is working at their largest store doing their delivery business.  This franchisee will currently deliver anything to customers that they order, so in this community, it's gone crazy.  Every Saturday is a new sales record.  His fiance just took over a smaller store, and she has the best sales growth and margins in the company.  With so many people still working from home or furloughed, the only thing they have left are outdoor work.  I might be the only person on my street who hasn't done anything.  

[naptownskinsfan]

3 hours ago, mission27 said:

mission spends about 60 hours a month on a plane, which is a real challenge. but we will be back in the game shortly. smugness never dies.

Damn, I might have spent 60 hours in a plane my entire life.  I always show up early to the airport too, just so I don't run any chance of missing the flight, although my last travel experience when I got delayed a day because of weather might make me change that.  Delta was super accommodating to reschedule my flight from Dallas to Atlanta, then from Atlanta to home.  Even took care of getting me two seats instead of the first class seat since I'm a bigger guy and needed to get back and couldn't wait for another first class ticket.  

[naptownskinsfan]

5 hours ago, mission27 said:

By the way I totally get how its different if that is where you work and you have to wear it for 8 hours at a time.  I wouldnt want to do that either and its a big sacrifice so the pros and cons need to be weighed, based on your contact with the public. 

But for someone going into the super market for 20 minutes like... come on man... this is not Nazi Germany

Most of the people I work with are working anywhere from 5-9 hours right now.  It's tough.  Even if I bring two, they are both damp after an hour and pretty worthless.  Not to mention, the owner wants a specific make and while he provided them, they don't fit my face at all.  

Thankfully I am mosting working in the office upstairs getting some things caught up so I don't have to worry about it too much, but it still sucks.  I've got a team member who has to have limited hours because their face has started to break out from it.  

[naptownskinsfan]

From the Redskins and Covid-19: Jerry Falwell was just on Fox News and stated that a student who wasn;t on campus when Liberty reopened tested positive for Covid-19, and then went into detail that it was someone who had already left school to pursue the NFL without stating the name.  So Antonio Gandy-Golden had Covid-19 and recovered.  

Meanwhile, reports that Dexter Manley has it and was not doing well, but those have changed to he is recovering.  Considering how much Manley has been through in his lifetime, it's no surprise that he is looking to beat this. 

[acowboys62]

17 hours ago, ET80 said:

Bingo. Watching people argue that masks don't keep them safe is entertaining.

No duh, Karen - it's not protecting you from the Rona, it's protecting others from you.

That wasn't my argument for or against masks, quite frankly I am not in the slightest bit worried about getting COVID.  I understand the reason for them, but when I constantly go out and you have a lot of people wearing the masks wrong, what protection are they getting?  None?  Like I said earlier, this is just my jaded view and I should focus less on the 30% of people who don't wear them right and more on the 70%.

Also, if masks are a protective measure, why can't a few more businesses open up?  Why does everything have to be curbside, if my mask will protect others, shouldn't small local business be allowed to open?  Shouldn't construction jobs be allowed to be inspected? (NJ Loophole to actually shut down construction without any push back...long story)

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, mission27 said:

I get that its not perfect, but the idea is a double barrier of masks are going to reduce the amount of droplet spread which is the primary vector for the infection.  Look at the success places like Tokyo have had sans lockdown and without the kind of test and trace they have in South Korea.  Tokyo is a bigger, denser city than even NYC and we've all seen the videos of people getting crammed into subways and Japan has actually done a worse job than the US on testing but they have virtually no cases.  The big difference is Japanese people have embraced wearing masks (was already much more socially acceptable over there) and wash their hands more.  Its simple stuff that seems to make a difference. 

I'm 100% with you that wearing a mask while riding a bicycle or running alone / with friends and family you are seeing anyway makes no sense.  But if you are going to go into an enclosed space with strangers for any period of time its the responsible thing to do for now imo.  Maybe at some point we'll have enough surveillance testing in place that we can only take these precautions in hot spots but for now it seems like a low cost to pay to prevent a future lockdown.

About 1,000 page ago, weren't you more on board with a herd immunity approach?  Doesn't masks seem to go 100% against that? I could be remembering very wrong and/or have the wrong poster.  

Not saying that approach would be better, just genuinely asking if you have changed your outlook on this.  And I do agree, low price to pay for sure, but I also have a rather close group of infection disease doctors and nurses who all acknowledge it is stupid but you "just deal with it" and I have never been a fan of that concept/mentality. 

I had to wear a mask at a damn farmers market the other day, 100% outside and the stands were roughly 10ft apart and the personnel behind them were behind plexiglass and the product/fruit all had a chipotle style protective covering over them.  Honestly, I am probably just annoyed at how far my area is taking these measures.  Wearing the mask inside a pharmacy/grocery store I get. 

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Arguing against masks is an idiot’s chore imo.  Just wear them.

Not for you, but the not so healthy fella next to you.  Some day that fella may be you. 
 

Are they a perfect solution? Nah.  But until there is one...

It is hardly an idiots chore, we are all entitled to have our opinion, nothing idiotic about that.  I wear mine, I have no choice and it is not a big enough deal that I am going to die on some hill over it. Does not mean I like it and I think when a lot of people wear them wrong I have a right to question how effective this whole process really is. Is it better than nothing, absolutely agreed, what % of better, who knows.   

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, mission27 said:

But again the reason to wear the mask is to prevent respiratory droplets from being ejected from your mouth toward someone else.  Even if its not on 'properly' it'll still form a barrier that will catch these droplets or even if they get through the mask, they aren't going to travel as far.  Basically just physics.  

Touching the mask and messing with it could potentially make you sick but its not going to make someone else sick unless they aren't following the basic precautions of hand washing, using hand sanitizer, and/or not touching their face while in public.

Just wear snorkle gear then, literally direct that stuff up into the air.

...I joke, but...

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, mission27 said:

Yep

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says

It doesnt have to be everyone.  If 80% of people wear a mask in high risk settings like subways and crowded retail stores, that alone will make a huge difference. 

Again look at Tokyo.  Only difference between Tokyo and NYC is masks tbh.

Then why aren't more businesses allowed to be open in certain areas? 

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Sorry, my arse is a bit chapped after seeing maybe 2/3 of the people at Lowe’s not wearing them. 

Lowe's by me has been reckless too, I sware with so many people home it has been more crowded than normal.  Zero restrictions on amount of people and they only have open the outside checkouts and the self checkouts so the lines are extremely long and of course about 3 ft apart when stacked down the aisles.  

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

The only menards near me is 30 min in the other direction from where I was headed.  Lowe’s was a disgrace.  
 

if my day wasn’t what it was (sump pump bit the dust and basement flooded) I’d have left and went elsewhere.  Just didn’t have the time for it.

Been there too many times, water sensor + batter backup (with emergency pump) well worth the investment if you are in a high flood prone area.  I spent the extra bucks and haven't had the issue since but at a minimum makes me feel better. 

[acowboys62]

16 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Nobody likes them. They suck. All complaining about having to wear them is totally cool with me, as long as we all agree that eventually we wear them.

Hell, even if it becomes "optional" in the future, out of respect for the older people who work at so many of these locations, despite my issues with masks, I will still wear them to local grocery stores and hardware stores.  If I lived in a big city, I would 100% wear them on mass transit...there is certainly a place for them...hopefully when we get to that point it is more "masks" and less "wrap your face in an old shirt"