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Pettine's Gone, but Outpost is Back


MacReady

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11 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

This doesn't seem to make sense. Is rushing 5 good or bad ?

Rushing 5 is very good, they do it well and what they should be doing  but the Packers don't do it enough as shown by the number of times they send 5.  Stop the run and rush 5 .. victory!

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1 hour ago, coachbuns said:

Rushing 5 is very good, they do it well and what they should be doing  but the Packers don't do it enough as shown by the number of times they send 5.  Stop the run and rush 5 .. victory!

Yeah they need to be in Goffs face every time he drops back. It’s gonna result in sacks, tipped balls and INTs

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15 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

Has Pettine blitzed a lot more the last few games of the season? I feel like he has been. Hopefully that continues in the playoffs.

He had ratcheted up the blitzing in recent weeks, until the Bears game.  Individual game numbers are really difficult to find, but using the season numbers and the number of blitzes accredited to individual players you can at least get an impression of the season.  Since multiple players can blitz on the same play, it's not going to be exact, but unless someone has a PFF subscription and wants to share their numbers, this is the best I can find.

The Packers blitzed 150 times on the season, good for a blitz rate of 24.7%, 21st in the NFL.  If you go by the individual game numbers, PFR has individual players blitzing a total of 237 times.  If you discount pass rushers from that group, off-ball LBs and DBs blitzed a total of 112 times on the season.  Discrepancies between these numbers again are likely due to 6+ man blitzes, resulting in more than one player blitzing each play.

So did Pettine actually get more aggressive toward the end of the season? Sort of, but actually no.

If you break the season into quarters, here's what it looks like:

  • Quarter 1 - 48 total blitzes, 23 non-edge blitzes
  • Quarter 2 - 66 total blitzes, 31 non-edge blitzes
  • Quarter 3 - 64 total blitzes, 25 non-edge blitzes
  • Quarter 4 - 59 total blitzes, 33 non-edge blitzes

Two things to note here: #1, Quarter 4 does include the Bears game, which saw only 5 total blitzes (4 non-edge), the lowest number of total blitzes in a game this season.  #2, while the number of total blitzes was actually lower in Quarter 4 than both 2 and 3, it featured the highest number of non-edge rusher blitzes for a quarter.  It's the only Quarter this year that over half the total blitzes are by non-edge players.

So, I guess the takeaway is that Pettine has definitely started sending his DBs and off-ball LBs more, but it's important to understand how low those numbers are compared to the league leaders.  In the Dolphins-Rams game that the Dolphins won 28-17, they blitzed 78 TIMES.  Again, that's not 78 called blitzes, but 78 times an individual came on a blitz; regardless, that's still more individual players coming in a single game than the Packers had in any individual quarter of a season.  And Miami didn't even finish first in blitz percentage, coming in 4% behind Baltimore (44.1% vs 40.4%).

Pettine really doesn't like to blitz, and it doesn't seem to matter what his personnel is.  Personally I think approaching defense passively like Pettine does should be a non-starter, but it is what it is.  Hopefully he'll prove me wrong this post-season.

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