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2021 ROOKIE QB's---- Who hits, who's OK, who busts?


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Wilson is no better than Darnold. 

If the Jets are still rancid then Wilson will be rancid.

If they become a good team around him then he will win some games but never be special IMO.


Mac Jones at 3 could be the worst pick of the last 25 years. He has all the ability of an NFL backup.

Other picks have flamed out but the logic and consensus was usually sound that the pick had value there.

Very few people see pick #3 value in Mac Jones. He is a reach at 15 and an absolute joke at 3.

People who compare him to Cousins are just plain wrong.

  • Jones has a substandard noodle arm. Cousins hit 59 mph at the combine (only a handful of guys like Josh Allen broke 60 in the last 12 years)

People who compare him to Tom Brady or Drew Brees are actual morons. Its not 'accuracy' if your guy is running away from dudes and you general area the ball


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Impossible to know. Take the 2018 class. Darnold was considered the most surefire starter and he is looking like the biggest bust.  Meanwhile GOING INTO last season, Baker Mayfield was essentially in a prove it year and his coaches said as much and Josh Allen was considered the liability who would hold the Bills back. They both rebounded having great years, but that's how much the difference from year 2 to year 3 made on how we view them. 

You really need 3-5 years to understand how a QB is ultimately going to trend in the NFL. After that they are settled in and are going to have a consistant range of play. Like Even Andrew Luck looked like the future of the league after 3 years. Then in year 4 he had a major injury and kept having injury issues until he retired. Cam Newton had a great rookie 2011, mediocre 2012, fantastic 2013, meh 2014, and incredible 2015. After 5 years it became apparent that he would be an up and down QB and that's been pretty on point. Meanwhile Kaep and RGIII looked like megastars their first year before they fell off. Wilson on the other hand looked good/okay in the early years and looked like he was a solid game manager who was riding a good defense.... then he became elite and it became apparent how much of a burden he could shoulder. 

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Predicting the most successful class since 2004

Lawrence: Similar career to Luck but more consistent/less turnovers. Floats around the Top 7-9 QB’s on a yearly basis. 

Wilson: Toughest one to gauge but I think he’ll be what people wanted Manziel to be, but way more of a better pure QB. Mormon Manziel will have good and bad years, mostly good, and float in and out of the Top 10 QB’s on a year to year basis. 

Lance: Will break Football on the 49ers. Not quite as much as Mahomes broke Football with Reid, but Lance/Shanahan are gonna tear up the NFL. I think Lance after two-three seasons will be hailed as a Top 5-6 QB. 

 Fields: Fields will have a similar career to Matt Stafford. Fringe Top 10 QB some seasons, but most seasons in the 12-14 range. 

Mac Jones and Kyle Trask will both be starters in the NFL but Low-Level Starters. Mac Jones will be around the 24-32 range and be pretty below-average, and eventually an NFL Backup. Trask will find a little more success (especially if he winds up on New England or New Orleans) and will be a QB in the 17-21 range, and stay a starter throughout his career, unlike Mac Jones. 

No one else will be a starter, including Mond. 

(And no, this doesn’t mean I have Lance ahead of Lawrence as a Prospect. Lawrence is my #1 Prospect. His Floor is insane. His Floor is basically Top 15 QB which is pretty absurd for a floor).

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Lawrence - Hit.  The guy is good.  He has been good for a long time, and I think it takes a lot of knit-picking to think it will be different for him in the NFL.

Wilson - Bust.  I know a lot of people are very high on him, but I think he has benefitted a LOT from the whole mania over Patrick Mahomes.  Wilson has a great arm and can throw it from different angles, similar to Mahomes.  The problem is that there is only one Pat Mahomes. 

I also saw a video recently about Wilson where they went over his record  with good vs. bad teams.  He has been great against weak competition, but when he played good teams, his record dropped precipitously.  It's not going to be any easier in the NFL.  I hope I'm wrong on him because you never want to see anyone bust, but that video I watched made sense.  I wish I had the url, but I can't find it.  If I run across it, I will post it.

Fields - Hit.  The way he has suddenly dropped on a lot of boards seems pretty crazy to me.  He looked very good against the best competition in the country.  I think he is going to be a very good player unless he ends up in an absolutely horrible situation, similar to Josh Rosen.

Lance - Hit.  As we all know, he is very young and raw, and he will take a little time, but if he goes to the right place, watch out.  He could be an incredible QB in this league.

Jones - OK.  I won't go so far as to say he will be a bust, but I'm pretty sure he is going to be drafted higher than he should be.  IMO, he is the next Kirk Cousins.  Not bad, but not all that great either.

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Lets make myself look stupid in a few years, 'cause why not.

Lawrence - I'd say a hit but he won't be the GOAT. Will turn into a game managing upper echelon franchise QB that wins based on smarts and exploiting matchups and less with straight up playmaking.

Wilson - If I'm Wilson I'm praying the Jets won't take me but the 49'ers do. Highest ceiling of these QB's imo and with good coaching could become an elite QB. If he ends up in New York I think he will become a Staffordesque player. He will consistently post good/great numbers while playing on a bad team while relying a bit too much on his arm talent to make the step up into elite territory. If somehow the Jets can give him the protection and coaching he needs he will turn into the best QB of this draft.

Fields - Bust. Not sure why but I'm getting an RG3 vibe from him. Will get off too a hot start, then regress and never get his rookie magic back.

Lance - Bust unless he really gets time to sit and develop. Right now he's just too raw and being forced to start year 1 or maybe even year 2 will ruin him.

Jones - I think he'll have a career as that kind of backup QB of whom you will always wonder if he would be good enough to start if the situation he was in was a bit better.

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10 hours ago, Starless said:

Jones is looking more and more like a bust to me. I just don't get a vibe from him that he's gonna work to improve his game once he starts getting NFL paychecks. 

You mean because he seems to really like things involving alcohol?

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