When was the last time the NFL MVP race was this wide open?

[StatKing]

32 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Basically right now it's pretty obvious Brady is the clear and decisive favorite. He's ahead by a decent amount in all the core QB stats that typically decide MVP (yards and TD's). Murray missed 3 games and his team won some games without him. Rodgers is barely top 5 in TD's and barely top 10 in yards and had a some memorable bad performances. And Stafford had a stretch of stinkers that stuck in everyones head. 

Right now Brady is ahead in the biggest predicative stats and is 1st in yards, TD's, QBR, is top 5 in rating, has the most game winning drives of the serious contenders. Then he also has the narrative of being on a new time and being 44 for going for a 4th MVP which breaks a 5 way tie with Rodgers, Brown, Unitas and Farve to become only the second player in history besides his rival to have more than 3 MVP's. He also has a pretty light schedule to finish off the season. 

Really barring a complete collapse, it's his to lose. 

Rodgers has a chance if he plays lights out the rest of the season and the Packers secure the one seed. Narratives do matter, it isn't simply a stat based award, or Drew Brees would have multiple MVPs.

[Fray32]

36 minutes ago, StatKing said:

Rodgers has a chance if he plays lights out the rest of the season and the Packers secure the one seed. Narratives do matter, it isn't simply a stat based award, or Drew Brees would have multiple MVPs.

Would he though?

[kingseanjohn]

Right now I’m leaning Brady or Stafford. Stafford has been a lot more efficient. Brady just has the bulk stats right now. 
Brady has 86 more attempts for 236yds and 3 TD advantage.
Give Stafford 86 more attempts with his averages and he’s +477yds and +3TD on Brady. 

[lancerman]

32 minutes ago, StatKing said:

Rodgers has a chance if he plays lights out the rest of the season and the Packers secure the one seed. Narratives do matter, it isn't simply a stat based award, or Drew Brees would have multiple MVPs.

Rodgers would probably still need to Brady to have a dip. Brady could be average the rest of the way and still have it. In fact, Stafford is probably closer overall. 

Rodgers has these things going against him. He's 10th in yards, he's 7th in TD's. So in the two big sexy stats he is likely finishing 10 TD's behind Brady and close to 1000 yards. He just won last year so there is really no excitement over some sort of big comeback and there isn't much hype about it compared it Brady. And since he just won, having what is clearly a step down of a season also hurts alot, he's way off pace in everything to get close to last year. Fairly or unfairly, the whole Covid thing recently narratively made things messy for him. That is going to hurt him if there is any close case he can make for himself. Also in big matchups I think more people are going to remember some of Brady's big tight game wins against Buffalo, New England and Dallas. Meanwhile Rodgers has the total dud in his season opener and then his team getting screwed out of a very winnable game vs the Chiefs are pretty memorable this year.

I think really Rodgers needs to play lights out and Brady and Stafford both need to fall off a lot for Rodgers to get the award. And even then I don't know if the gap will close enough. I think Rodgers loses it to either of them if it's even remotely close.

[incognito_man]

It's a two man show. Brady is the leader. Rodgers needs to make up ground.

That's it.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

Rodgers would probably still need to Brady to have a dip. Brady could be average the rest of the way and still have it. In fact, Stafford is probably closer overall. 

Rodgers has these things going against him. He's 10th in yards, he's 7th in TD's. So in the two big sexy stats he is likely finishing 10 TD's behind Brady and close to 1000 yards. He just won last year so there is really no excitement over some sort of big comeback and there isn't much hype about it compared it Brady. And since he just won, having what is clearly a step down of a season also hurts alot, he's way off pace in everything to get close to last year. Fairly or unfairly, the whole Covid thing recently narratively made things messy for him. That is going to hurt him if there is any close case he can make for himself. Also in big matchups I think more people are going to remember some of Brady's big tight game wins against Buffalo, New England and Dallas. Meanwhile Rodgers has the total dud in his season opener and then his team getting screwed out of a very winnable game vs the Chiefs are pretty memorable this year.

I think really Rodgers needs to play lights out and Brady and Stafford both need to fall off a lot for Rodgers to get the award. And even then I don't know if the gap will close enough. I think Rodgers loses it to either of them if it's even remotely close.

I don't think voters give a damn about the season opener in Jan when they decide the MVP. 

Rodgers is behind Brady in bulk stats and ahead in efficiency and analytical stats, which I feel like are becoming more and more used in voting.

Personally I think it's neck and neck, both teams face a cupcake pass D schedule down the stretch and should put up big numbers.

I'd give the edge to Brady because I think voters try to avoid back to back MVPs and I think a tie will go to Brady so to speak.

[StatKing]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

I don't think voters give a damn about the season opener in Jan when they decide the MVP. 

Rodgers is behind Brady in bulk stats and ahead in efficiency and analytical stats, which I feel like are becoming more and more used in voting.

Personally I think it's neck and neck, both teams face a cupcake pass D schedule down the stretch and should put up big numbers.

I'd give the edge to Brady because I think voters try to avoid back to back MVPs and I think a tie will go to Brady so to speak.

Pretty much the in the same boat. If the whole vaccination fiasco blows Rodgers chance to win it then it is what it is but stat wise the only argument Brady really has is bulk numbers, efficiency wise they are pretty much even. Considering the injuries the Packers have had on their OL and at WR, if the Packers finish with the one seed and Rodgers has roughly 40-45 total tds I don't know how you deny him back to back.

[lancerman]

5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I don't think voters give a damn about the season opener in Jan when they decide the MVP. 

Rodgers is behind Brady in bulk stats and ahead in efficiency and analytical stats, which I feel like are becoming more and more used in voting.

Personally I think it's neck and neck, both teams face a cupcake pass D schedule down the stretch and should put up big numbers.

I'd give the edge to Brady because I think voters try to avoid back to back MVPs and I think a tie will go to Brady so to speak.

Put it this way. In 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2014, 2013, and 2010 the QB who led the league in passing TD's was the ultimate winner of the MVP. That's 7 out of the last 10 who were QB's (there wasn't a QB winner in 2012). 

In all the other years the MVP winner was someone who was top 3 in TD's. In 2017 there was a 2TD difference between all of the top 3 and one was injured and the other kinda fell apart late. In 2016 it was a 2TD difference, the biggest difference was Rodgers had a slow start to the year and Ryan was excellent throughout. In 2015 there was a 1 TD difference between the league leader in TD's (Brady) and Cam. Cam had the 15-1 schedule and rushing stats to help overcome that. And in 2011 there was a 1 TD difference between Rodgers and Brees, only Rodgers also had the all time passer rating record to go with it.

Rodgers right now is tied for 5th in passing TD's and is like 9 behind Brady who is the leader. 

He's also 915 yards behind Brady in yards and ranks 11th in the league. 

I think just based off big stats that most fans know and jumps out at everybody, that's alot to overcome. Especially with how MVP is historically awarded. There's 4 games left. Brady is likely to easily clear 40 TD's. If he gets close to 45 (which is doable it's 9 TD's in 4 games and one of those games is vs the Jets) he's basically going to wrap this up.

[JonMcC2018]

Don't forget it's also a narrative award. Brady's narrative is stronger than Rodgers especially with all that happened with Rodgers earlier this season.

When you watch Rodgers play though.... wow. When he is on his game there is no-one better.

 

[Warhorse]

19 hours ago, lancerman said:

Basically right now it's pretty obvious Brady is the clear and decisive favorite. He's ahead by a decent amount in all the core QB stats that typically decide MVP (yards and TD's). Murray missed 3 games and his team won some games without him. Rodgers is barely top 5 in TD's and barely top 10 in yards and had a some memorable bad performances. And Stafford had a stretch of stinkers that stuck in everyones head. 

Right now Brady is ahead in the biggest predicative stats and is 1st in yards, TD's, QBR, is top 5 in rating, has the most game winning drives of the serious contenders. Then he also has the narrative of being on a new time and being 44 for going for a 4th MVP which breaks a 5 way tie with Rodgers, Brown, Unitas and Farve to become only the second player in history besides his rival to have more than 3 MVP's. He also has a pretty light schedule to finish off the season. 

Really barring a complete collapse, it's his to lose. 

I get that. I was talking about the correlation of the comment I quoted. It has nothing to do with being a "hipster", other than perhaps the poster doesn't like hipsters. 

"a person who follows the latest trends and fashions, especially those regarded as being outside the cultural mainstream."

[Nabbs4u]

Neither Tom or Aaron should want to win League MVP. Hope for SB victory instead because odds suggest you're not winning both league MVP and a SB in the same year.

Go with the odds Tom, you were still at Michigan last time it occured.

 

Quote

Only ten players have won the Super Bowl and MVP in the same season: Bart Starr in 1966, Terry Bradshaw in 1978, Mark Moseley in 1982, Lawrence Taylor in 1986, Joe Montana in 1989, Emmitt Smith in 1993, Steve Young in 1994, Brett Favre in 1996, Terrell Davis in 1998, and Kurt Warner in 1999.

 

[Malfatron]

18 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

Right now I’m leaning Brady or Stafford. Stafford has been a lot more efficient. Brady just has the bulk stats right now. 
Brady has 86 more attempts for 236yds and 3 TD advantage.
Give Stafford 86 more attempts with his averages and he’s +477yds and +3TD on Brady. 

those back to back to back pick 6s put stafford way behind

[Malfatron]

33 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Neither Tom or Aaron should want to win League MVP. Hope for SB victory instead because odds suggest you're not winning both league MVP and a SB in the same year.

Go with the odds Tom, you were still at Michigan last time it occured.

 

 

And before last year nobody won the superbowl in their home stadium

 

[incognito_man]

18 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

Right now I’m leaning Brady or Stafford. Stafford has been a lot more efficient. Brady just has the bulk stats right now. 
Brady has 86 more attempts for 236yds and 3 TD advantage.
Give Stafford 86 more attempts with his averages and he’s +477yds and +3TD on Brady. 

just imagine if you give those attempts to Rodgers!

373/554 - 4350yds - 36 TDs - 5 INTs

Rodgers is currently #1 in passer rating as well

[lancerman]

14 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

just imagine if you give those attempts to Rodgers!

373/554 - 4350yds - 36 TDs - 5 INTs

Rodgers is currently #1 in passer rating as well

But you can’t retroactively give someone extrapolated stats. Like what’s the argument then, the most valuable player is someone whose team asked him to do less than the other guys? 
 

passer rating is his top argument for MVP