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Official 2020 QB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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24 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Brissett is not an NFL starter. The Colts need to draft a QB with a premium pick this year.

 

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

They could be in a good spot to get Love... I'd consider it for sure

 

6 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

If it came to the point where Love was the best option, then I feel bad for the Colts. Love is like the 7th-best prospect this year. Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Eason, Fromm, and Hurts are all better (though some of them would be worse than Love in certain schemes). Heck, I wouldn't blame someone for rating Kellen Mond better than Love. He has a body and that's pretty much all I've seen from watching him play extensively this year. Like, yeah he can wow you with an amazing throw every once in a while, but Eason and Herbert both also make the exact same throws and they do it more consistently against better competition (and Eason has probably an even worse supporting cast than Love does... Washington has like zero skill position talent now). From watching eight of his games this seasons, Love just reminds me so much of a less-productice Paxton Lynch that is isn't even funny.

If I'm the Colts and I'm picking low enough that I have to get someone raw at QB, it's either Eason or Hurts. Otherwise, I'd gladly roll with Herbert or Tua. In fact, the primary concern with Tua is that you need to give him a great blocking unit. I think he'd thrive behind the Colts' excellent OL and the type of WR they carry (with T.Y., Parris Campbell, and Deion Cain all being dynamic downfield targets). Honestly, you could even make the argument for Fromm playing in a Frank Reich offense where he could be a more efficient version of Brisset. 

If the Colts HAVE to settle for Love or Mond, one of those clear-cut tier-3 guys, then they might as well roll with Brisset for another year.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

My assumption was that they would do that regardless, given his contract. 

Also, I think a few of those guys you mentioned are going to bust hard, notably Herbert. But that's a convo for the draft forum. 

 

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I redid my quarterback projections this year, working around the chance that a player hits 100 ANY/A+ for his career.

For those who don't know, ANY/A+ is a measure of how much better or worse than the average player in a given year that a quarterback is in terms of Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), where 100 is average. These are the all-time single-season leaders: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_index_single_season.htm

The model values rushing surprisingly highly, because having a dual-threat quarterback is becoming more and more necessary for NFL success. The numbers have started to back that up: from 2006 to 2016 among highly-drafted (Rounds 1-3) quarterbacks, college Total Yards, Total Yards per Attempt, and Total Touchdown Rate, as three examples, all correlate higher to career ANY/A+ in the NFL than their pass-only counterparts (Yards, Y/A, TD%). 

Anyway, as it stands right now, these are the projections for the 2020 class, using Scouts Inc.'s projections as a stand-in for draft position.

Name College ANY/A+ Score*
J. Burrow LSU 35.02%
T. Tagovailoa* Alabama 30.72%
J. Hurts Oklahoma 26.88%
J. Herbert Oregon 20.25%
A. Gordon Washington St. 17.67%
J. Fromm Georgia 16.02%
J. Love Utah State 15.57%
J. Eason Washington 14.82%
N. Stanley Iowa 14.47%
  • Burrow ranks 4th since 2006 (Murray, Mayfield, Mariota) 
  • Eason (28th overall by Scouts Inc.) would be the worst first-round QB since 2006 in terms of projection, with Fromm a close second (27th overall)
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