Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[naptownskinsfan]

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

i mean, its a tougher problem and more nuanced than that.  my mother in law is a nurse at a memory unit in  nursing home that is doing well.  they cant have visitors in and they are doing well at her particular nursing home, but the one that was more lax that she used to work at has a lot of cases.  almost gotta treat these nursing homes like hermetic containers, cant risk anyone bringing the virus in, cause once its in anywhere enclosed it spreads like wildfire, whether it be a nursing home or a navy ship.  you still cant really bring in anyone from the outside to help cause, what if they cause more damage.  tough situation for sure.  

Oh no, I agree with keeping them shut in to start.  But once the virus hits?  I think we can do more to help them snuff it out than just keeping the doors locked and letting them spread.  

Your MIL does fantastic work by the way.  It has to be a hard job to work in a nursing home, much less the memory unit and seeing people go downhill and not recognizing their families.  

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Now, I don't know of anyone doing this and I would never jeopardize someone's livelihood that way, but no one can tell me with a straight face it isn't happening.  

Yeah I know of like a dozen people who have either gone to a barber shop with the shades closed or had a barber or hair dresser come to their house to cut their hair in the past couple of weeks (mission is not one of them).

And these are all white collar workers who are working from home and realistically have no reason yet to need a haircut and live in a hot spot.  So I've gotta imagine this is pretty rampant in areas where cases are lower and more people are working or socializing.  And when we start to go back to work and seeing people socially in the harder hit areas, does anyone really think this is going to hold?  Nobody is gonna put up with it. 

[mission27]

7 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Since that is most likely the case, let's just open up with restrictions.  Have to wear masks in that close proximity, and they can deny service if not.  Six feet distance minimum between customers and other employees.  Sanitize the seat and get a new smock (or don't have smocks) for the next person.  I would be more than happy to get my hair cut in an old t-shirt and ball it up and put it in a bag to handle when I get home to eliminate the need for the smock. 

 

It could be a little tough to cut someones hair with a mask on

Maybe they need to provide surgical masks that are a little easier to work around.  Because the big cloth masks it would be basically impossible sine they wrap around your head.

[naptownskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, mission27 said:

It could be a little tough to cut someones hair with a mask on

Maybe they need to provide surgical masks that are a little easier to work around.  Because the big cloth masks it would be basically impossible sine they wrap around your head.

I have ones with the ear hole cut out, those would work.  The haircut might be rough around the ears but that's fine with me.  

[Xenos]

Florida is also opening up again:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/850057046/florida-enters-1st-phase-of-reopening-as-some-restrictions-lift-in-all-but-3-cou?utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1uFDOK6uRZLeSWdYe7MDNZac4hVBSVqpo5FFEvpdRaGPHmPsz_d89_x-8

Quote

Under the new order, restaurants and retail stores can reopen starting today. Outdoor seating at restaurants can be used, though restaurants can use only 25% of their indoor seating capacity.

Large venues such as movie theaters remain closed for now, as are barbershops and hair salons. Gyms and bars are still closed, too. It's not clear when they'll reopen.

 

[Shanedorf]

gotta start testing wastewater for hints

Coronavirus found in Paris sewage points to early warning system

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/coronavirus-found-paris-sewage-points-early-warning-system

By sampling sewage across greater Paris for more than 1 month, researchers have detected a rise and fall in novel coronavirus concentrations that correspond to the shape of the COVID-19 outbreak in the region, where a lockdown is now suppressing spread of the disease. Although several research groups have reported detecting coronavirus in wastewater, the researchers say the new study is the first to show that the technique can pick up a sharp rise in viral concentrations in sewage before cases explode in the clinic. That points to its potential as a cheap, noninvasive tool to warn against outbreaks, they say.

“This visibility is also going to help us predict a second wave of outbreaks,” says Sébastien Wurtzer, a virologist at Eau de Paris, the city’s public water utility.
Wurtzer and his colleagues posted the study, which has not been peer-reviewed, on the preprint repository medRxiv on 17 April.

[WizeGuy]

According to Cuomo, the finger lakes region(which includes my city) meets 5 of the 6 requirements needed for entering phase one of opening up. We just need more testing.

Edited May 4, 2020 by WizeGuy

[mission27]

Alright, I'm going to post a supplemental MoL update on the Coronavirus due to everyone's angst today.  To be clear, none of the below is based on the MoL model.  We are purely using publicly available information on trailing 7 day deaths from worldometers.info.

Supplemental Death MoL

My fellow Americans...

It seems like there's been growing unease about US numbers over the last week or week and a half.  Folks are upset that numbers have not come down faster and frankly the MoL was a little bit upset too before they availed themselves of some education.

Bad comparisons: 

A big cause of this angst is coming from comparing US numbers vs numbers in countries such as Spain, Belgium, and Italy.  Given changes in testing rates deaths are probably the best (not perfect) metric for this discussion.  And given the weekly fluctuations in reporting cadence, 7 day trailing averages are better than other periods. 

Below are graphs comparing US deaths vs. deaths in the three countries mentioned above.  We are showing these numbers as a percentage of peak 7 day trailing average deaths in each country (so that it is apples to apples between countries) and centering each countries graph around the day they hit peak cases. 

Looking at Spain, Belgium and Italy there is clearly a steeper growth phase and steeper decline. 

But this isn't particularly surprising.  These are three of the hardest hit countries in the entire world with 2-3x as many deaths per capita as the US.  Were you to compare these graphs to the graph of deaths for the tristate are, you would get a much closer comparison.

Better comparisons: 

What about some countries in Europe that have not been hit quite as hard?  The shape of the curve is a lot more similar to that in the US:

Netherlands for example has about 300 deaths per million vs. 200 in the US, but is a couple weeks ahead of the US so its a decent comparison.  After 12 days of declines in daily deaths Netherlands was at 86% of their peak compared to 85% for the US.  Interestingly, they were at 90% after 13 days (the US is likely to be closer to 83%).

Switzerland is another decent comparison.  As you can see they got down to about 80% of their peak within a couple of weeks, which is where the US will likely be after today. 

Best comparison: 

Of course if we want a good comparison for the US from a population and regional diversity perspective, what better comparison than Europe on the whole?  When you compare the US to Europe, you actually get a pretty decent fit.

Europe was hit harder and put in place harsher lockdowns as a result, so their upward curve is steeper and they peaked earlier (By about two weeks) than we did.  However, when you look at the downslope, Europe is almost identical to the US. 

After 12 days, cases had dropped to 88% vs. 85% in the US.  After 13 days, cases had dropped to 83% (again the US is likely to be similar).

Takeaway: 

None of this is to say the United States will continue to follow the curve we have seen in Europe and countries like the Netherlands.  BUT it is important for those who are anxious right now because of the numbers to understand that, given we are ~2 weeks removed from the peak in deaths (which was always projected to occur around April 20th), the decline we've seen in the death rate has not been bad.  Its largely been in line with what Europe has experienced, just two weeks later because we were hit 2 weeks later.  The next two weeks we should continue to watch this, if US deaths plateau at 80-85% of peak we will start breaking away from Europe's curve.  Given that Europe had a sharper upswing, I wouldn't be surprised if our downswing is also slightly less steep.  But as you can see so far we are tracking closely. 

This also does not tell us anything about what would happen to this curve as a result of re-opening measures.  However, these measures are just now going into effect in most places, so we should not expect to see significant impacts until at least the middle of the month.

Credits:

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[mission27]

5/4/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Say it in the street, that's a knock-out
But you say it in a Tweet, that's a cop-out
And I'm just like, "Hey, are you okay?"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL is smug about death (read our death thing) and also about Singapore and the USA doing very well.  We also debut some new graphics for your entertainment and education.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Hong Kong: 0.2 (3 days of no cases)

South Korea: 0.4

France: 0.6

China: 0.7 (China reaches its lowest level yet, phenomenal job by president Xi)

Czech Republic: 1.1

Israel: 1.1

Netherlands: 1.2 

Portugal: 1.3

Italy: 1.6 (new all-time low for the Italians)

Australia: 1.6 (Shady I know you're bummed but dont let your country keep slipping)

Belgium: 1.7 (all-time low)

Austria: 2.0

Japan: 2.1

Switzerland: 2.2

Germany: 2.5 (all-time low for Merkel)

Spain: 2.8 (congrats to @malagabears and @vikesfan89 on tier 1 and congrats to the MoL as well for making it possible)

Turkey: 2.8 (Turkey too!)

 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Sweden: 3.0 (they call it... the herd)

USA: 3.6 (US on the way back down, see positive state by state numbers below)

UK: 3.7

Philippines: 3.9

Global: 3.9 (nearly matches the all-time low of 4 days ago)

Singapore: 4.5 (#seasonality for #singapore makes MoL smug af)

Ireland: 5.1

Canada: 6.6 (if you adjusted out the blip in cases due to the Quebec thing, they're be around 5.7 tbh, expect they'll be in the 4s in no time flat, maybe even 3s shortly tbh, although they close cases too fast for their own smugness)

Denmark: 5.8

Iran: 7.0* (why dont they just do a fatwah on coronavirus)

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Russia: 10.9 (good call by the MoL to leave Russia in this tier, tbhwy)

India: 11.9 (the big I headed back in the wrong direction unfortunately and testing remains scarce) 

Brazil: 16.4 

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 29.3 (a year ago mission was sitting in a fleabag hotel at the border watching the Kentucky Derby with a bunch of Mexicans drinking straight tequila he bought for a few pesos from some bum on the street corner, oh how times have changed)

USA State Level MoLs

Very good all around numbers, the states the MoL cares about are doing very well

MoL Deaths

US deaths continue to trend down and trend down big league, see our death addendum linked above

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[mission27]

 

 

Important context

[TwoUpTwoDown]

Seems like a situation where headlines were posted with haste, and little thought or background information. Which is way too common nowadays tbh.

 

But who can tell what is truly going on woth anything anymore.

[mission27]

@seriously27

Interesting article...

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/asu-ast050420.php

Quote

Now, using a pool of 382 nasal swab samples obtained from possible COVID-19 cases in Arizona, Lim's team has identified a SARS-CoV-2 mutation that had never been found before----where 81 of the letters have vanished, permanently deleted from the genome.

The study was published in the online version of the Journal of Virology.

Lim says as soon as he made the manuscript data available on a preprint server medRxiv, it has attracted worldwide interest from the scientific community, including the World Health Organization.

"One of the reasons why this mutation is of interest is because it mirrors a large deletion that arose in the 2003 SARS outbreak," said Lim, an assistant professor at ASU's Biodesign Institute. During the middle and late phases of the SARS epidemic, SARS-CoV accumulated mutations that attenuated the virus. Scientists believe that a weakened virus that causes less severe disease may have a selective advantage if it is able to spread efficiently through populations by people who are infected unknowingly.

these are the sort of mutations I'd personally have expected to be  more prevalent in the population of cases because of natural selection factors

[mission27]

Just now, TwoUpTwoDown said:

Seems like a situation where headlines were posted with haste, and little thought or background information. Which is way too common nowadays tbh.

 

But who can tell what is truly going on woth anything anymore.

All you have left to trust is the MoL tbh

We will never mislead you and we will never let you down.  Right @TLO?

[mission27]

IHME made some very positive changes to their model and added some interesting data, like testing rates, estimates of the actual infection curve adjusted for testing (a backwards looking model! and one that confirms whta the MoL said tbh), and adjustments for social distancing

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/

Encourage everyone to poke around tbh

[mission27]

https://www.ansa.it/canale_scienza_tecnica/notizie/biotech/2020/05/04/coronavirus-funzionano-gli-anticorpi-del-vaccino-italiano_8c9c97a9-1f1f-4270-ba4f-b1033419bf28.html