sdrawkcab321 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 7 hours ago, candyman93 said: What field do you work in...? I work at a steel mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Italy and Spain finally seeing decreased death rates. Lock down has worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 8 hours ago, mission27 said: 4/6/2020 MoL Scores: "So I guess all the rumors are true you know I love a London boy, boy, I fancy you (ooh)." - Taylor Swift Get well soon Boris <3 Today the MoL takes the fight to the state level, with a new level of granularity that should make all you nerds pretty damn hard Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures China: 1.5 South Korea: 1.9 Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1 Austria: 3.5 (active cases continue to plummet, we'll see if daily new case numbers follow suit over the next week or two, this is arguably a tier 1 number and Austria is getting ready to partially re-open but cases are still a tad high every day, per capita, for our liking... basically double South Korea, who has 5x as many people and better testing) Australia: 3.6 (@Shady Slim I think your country is also damn near close to being a tier 1, when is your government gonna start getting ready to relax ****?) Hong Kong: 4.8 (as the MoL said there was never a real wave 2 threat, it was travel related, they are close to tier 1 status) Switzerland: 5.4 (the Swiss leapfrog Italy!) Italy: 5.5 (their best day in a long time, they are really getting there, bet we start seeing some days below 1k cases in the next couple weeks, my hope is there isnt pressure to reopen a week or two early which could be crushing) Netherlands: 8.5 Germany: 8.7 Portugal: 8.7 Iran: 8.9 (still not sure I trust their numbers, but very promising if there is any truth to it) Spain: 9.0 (@malagabears the MoL believes you guys are clearly over the hump, welcome to tier 2) Israel: 9.7 (they seem to be getting close to an apex, REALLY important people respect the lockdowns during Passover, good to see government taking this very seriously) Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases Sweden: 9.8 (we're gonna keep them in tier 3 for a couple more days, but just want to point out, the Sweden experiment seems to be working despite all the recent blowback) Ireland: 11.4 Global: 11.8 (global average of these countries is inching downward, may be in tier 2 shortly, i.e. we could be seeing an apex shortly among this group of countries... although India or a few other places could change that for the worse) Philippines: 12.5 Belgium: 12.5 (a laggard in Europe but still in a much better spot than they were a week ago when they were above the US... progress) USA: 15.1 (the numbers look really promising the last couple of days as you'll see with the state by state, but just keep in mind this is still very much skewed by New York peaking and slowing down, we need to be vigilant, but there is reason to be hopeful we are where Europe was a week ago) Brazil: 16.3 (we aren't seeing exponential growth here, looking like #seasonality notches another win, but the numbers are sort of sketchy tbh so who knows) Japan: 16.4 (lets hope yesterdays number was a bilp not a trend, sounds like some form of lockdown incoming, its possible they were doomed by the border rush a few weeks ago but honestly doing a lot better than anyone could expect @Malfatron) UK: 16.4 (a little bit of good news at least, UK seems to be slowing down at the same time as US and Canada even with a bad number Sunday, the lockdowns are working, lets all pray for Boris J) Canada: 17.6 (so great to see our great Canada out of the red) Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down) Turkey: 19.3 (on the border of falling into high tier 3, daily numbers are still concerning but lockdown seems to be slowing things) France: 19.5 (just a day or two more in the dog house, France probably isn't that much different from Spain, I think on April 8th update we will see them fall pretty drastically once the impact of the 23k cases wash out... not a real tier 4 country tbh) India: 31.0 (still my biggest worry, I'm encouraged that we aren't seeing the same explosion of cases we've seen other places yet indicating maybe there isn't a hot spot in India, which would be a disaster, but you never know where testing is here) USA State Level MoLs New York still slowing, Washington breaks into Tier 2, overall good trends across the board, so far no new hot spots developing in the view of the MoL, probably the most concerning state right now is Florida as it is hanging in the high teens but today was a positive set of numbers overall for them The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 and the others who love us so much I would tag Webby as well, who makes this all possible, but I do not want to get banned @TLO Spain spiked again today in deaths. This is going to be a real roller coaster for a while!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 hour ago, sdrawkcab321 said: I work at a steel mill. I thought you were a nurse? Didnt you used to work at the Clinic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: These are billion dollar corporations that allocate money terribly. It's not incompetence, it's deliberate. There's no point to being responsible with your money when the taxpayers bail you out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: It's not incompetence, it's deliberate. There's no point to being responsible with your money when the taxpayers bail you out. @LyndonBJohnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: It's not incompetence, it's deliberate. There's no point to being responsible with your money when the taxpayers bail you out. Feel free to correct on the following, because i'm only 97% sure, BUT ----> There's also very little incentive to keep cash on hand to weather storms like this. Cash is taxed at the corporate tax level, IIRC, while investments back into the company are not. So the current tax laws incentivize companies to run on the edge without a safety net/harness/parachute. It's akin to tell people that they can put money in the bank, but you'll get a -10% interest rate. Well, you'd put your money in illiquid things too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 hour ago, malagabears said: Spain spiked again today in deaths. This is going to be a real roller coaster for a while!! They are normal fluctuations that are occurring after the weekend. Data is still showing good signs. We will be around 600 deaths per day this week and will steadily go down (probably around 450 deaths per day next week). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdrawkcab321 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 52 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I thought you were a nurse? Didnt you used to work at the Clinic? Yes. Left in October. I got burnt out and wanted a new career. Found something with little to no stress and for much more money. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: So at what point are the companies expected to be able to survive a couple months without a bailout? A couple of months of zero revenue while expecting them to continue to pay all of their employees and cover their other costs is a big ask. American Airlines has $45 billion a year of revenue and $44 billion a year of expenses. That's what making a billion dollars a year looks like. People don't seem to get that. You take one side of that equation away and not the other and its going to be ugly. I think its important to remember that shutting down the entire global economy has never happened in the history of human civilization, this isn't something anyone thought was going to happen or could have foreseen. I understand people are hurting but people will be hurting more down the road if we throw the baby out with the bath water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 (edited) http://theconversation.com/heres-how-scientists-are-tracking-the-genetic-evolution-of-covid-19-134201 "Given that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is almost twice as large as the seasonal flu genome, it seems as though the seasonal flu mutates roughly four times as fast as SARS-CoV-2. The fact that the seasonal flu mutates so quickly is precisely why it is able to evade our vaccines, so the significantly slower mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 gives us hope for the potential development of effective long-lasting vaccines against the virus." COVID-19 seems(edit!) to be mutating at a rate 4X slower than the seasonal flu. This is phenomenal news. Most of us assumed this to be the case since Coronaviruses in general mutate much slower than the flu, but now there's actual data to back it up. A vaccine *could* completely eradicate the virus all together given how slow it mutates. Edited April 7, 2020 by WizeGuy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 31 minutes ago, theJ said: Feel free to correct on the following, because i'm only 97% sure, BUT ----> There's also very little incentive to keep cash on hand to weather storms like this. Cash is taxed at the corporate tax level, IIRC, while investments back into the company are not. So the current tax laws incentivize companies to run on the edge without a safety net/harness/parachute. It's akin to tell people that they can put money in the bank, but you'll get a -10% interest rate. Well, you'd put your money in illiquid things too. I started typing a response, but it was too argumentative in style. This quarantine and work are getting to me apparently. There's room for reasonable discussion/disagreement here, and my bet is we each get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 (edited) https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-06/covid19-blood-antibodies-recovered-show-promise This is going to be treatment for the very sick going forward, imo. One person with strong antibodies could, in theory, treat multiple people. The population pool of people with strong enough antibodies should be pretty wide given how contagious this virus is. Mass antibody testing + Antibody treatment= significantly lowering the mortality rate. The issues are cost and producing the treatment. I don't think we'll have much of an issue producing treatment, but cost is a concern. Edited April 7, 2020 by WizeGuy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: Mass antibody testing + Antibody treatment= significantly lowering the mortality rate. The issues are cost and producing the treatment. I don't think we'll have much of an issue producing treatment, but cost is a concern. I would assume this would be given through a blood or serum donation, not a specific treatment. (We can make synthetic (the term is "humanized") antibodies but it takes years and the cost is staggering. If you've heard of million dollar plus cancer treatments, that's likely a specific type of humanized mAb.) EDIT: Sorry, to be clear, I think the difference here is that we may be able to bring the cost concerns down dramatically. If people are willing to quarantine, I think we'd be lining up in droves to big blood to keep people healthy. Edited April 7, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 39 minutes ago, theJ said: Feel free to correct on the following, because i'm only 97% sure, BUT ----> There's also very little incentive to keep cash on hand to weather storms like this. Cash is taxed at the corporate tax level, IIRC, while investments back into the company are not. So the current tax laws incentivize companies to run on the edge without a safety net/harness/parachute. It's akin to tell people that they can put money in the bank, but you'll get a -10% interest rate. Well, you'd put your money in illiquid things too. Yes and no, yes companies have incentive to run lean due to low interest rates and tax structure (which is good for our economy btw, although buybacks arent ideal) but companies who are doing well should 100% behave in a fiscally prudent and responsible way and be able to weather a storm. Its a balance, that's why you have a CFO The real issue is we're dealing with an unprecedented and unforeseeable public health response to a once in a generation crisis. Two months of no revenue + being expected to cover all your costs is a much quicker and steeper liquidity hit than even a year or two of a moderate recession and its not something anyone has prepared before because its never happened before Putting a band-aid in place to protect our economy in the face of an unprecedented, hopefully once in a lifetime situation is reasonable and appropriate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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