Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[TLO]

19 minutes ago, mission27 said:

someone who clearly has an inferiority complex vis-a-vis the MoL.  

Id argue this is a very justifiable position tbh

[rob_shadows]

Okay who the hell let Sheldon Cooper in this thread? 

[rob_shadows]

One thing I think this whole thing is showing us with our willingness to shut everything down for a virus with a relatively low CFR is that the old addage "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" no longer applies to this world.

[mission27]

37 minutes ago, Xenos said:

West Coast getting ready as well:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-13/coronavirus-restrictions-gavin-newsom-california-washington-oregon-western-state-pact?fbclid=IwAR3Yo9zmZx2L_GW9f-17ipjytIJexJ7bzH3J2eg57fNjxlIl0v6Vtk-9f1k

I think is all great but tbh there needs to be cooperation and coordination between the regions too

[pwny]

1 hour ago, dtait93 said:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

So where does this claim that death certificates are stating cause of deaths are being listed as COVID-19 when they died of something else?

Because this specifically says the exact opposite of that.

 

 

 

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When determining whether COVID–19 played a role in the cause of death, follow the CDC clinical criteria for evaluating a person under investigation for COVID–19 and, where possible, conduct appropriate laboratory testing using guidance provided by CDC or local health authorities. More information on CDC recommendations for reporting, testing, and specimen collection, including postmortem testing, is available from: https://www. cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/guidance- postmortem-specimens.html. It is important to remember that death certificate reporting may not meet mandatory reporting requirements for reportable diseases; contact the local health department regarding regulations specific to the jurisdiction.

 

 

 

 

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When reporting cause of death on a death certificate, use any information available, such as medical history, medical records, laboratory tests, an autopsy report, or other sources of relevant information. Similar to many other diagnoses, a cause-of-death statement is an informed medical opinion that should be based on sound medical judgment drawn from clinical training and experience, as well as knowledge of current disease states and local trends (6).

 

 

 

 

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This section on the death certificate is for reporting the sequence of conditions that led directly to death. The immediate cause of death, which is the disease or condition that directly preceded death and is not necessarily the underlying cause of death (UCOD), should be reported on line a. The conditions that led to the immediate cause of death should be reported in a logical sequence in terms of time and etiology below it.

 

 

 

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Other significant conditions that contributed to the death, but are not a part of the sequence in Part I, should be reported in Part II. Not all conditions present at the time of death have to be reported—only those conditions that actually contributed to death.

 

 

[vikesfan89]

7 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

One thing I think this whole thing is showing us with our willingness to shut everything down for a virus with a relatively low CFR is that the old addage "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" no longer applies to this world.

It concerns me how easy it was. 

[Xenos]

18 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

One thing I think this whole thing is showing us with our willingness to shut everything down for a virus with a relatively low CFR is that the old addage "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" no longer applies to this world.

Watch The Search for Spock instead then. But seriously people take that old Star Trek adage a little too literally when it's not a perfect representation of the moral imbiguity of the world we live in.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Xenos

[Xenos]

11 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

It concerns me how easy it was. 

Watch Star Trek III instead.

Edit: I take that back. Watch The Good Place instead if we're going to take moral lessons from entertainment.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Xenos

[rob_shadows]

1 minute ago, Xenos said:

Watch The Search for Spock instead then. But seriously people take that old Star Trek adage a little too literally when it's not a perfect representation of the moral imbiguity of the world we live in.

Of course it's not a perfect representation, but it does raise some questions and like you said there is some moral ambiguity in this whole thing.

[naptownskinsfan]

US District Court in Maryland just sent me a juror qualification form.  Even though most proceedings are suspended until June 5th, and filings given an 84 day grace period, it seems they are still collecting and processing lists for people to serve on a jury once everything resumes- and having to work through that backlog is going to be a lot of work.  My local circuit court jury commitment from last year just fell under the bar they use to excuse me, too.  

I'm not in need of the money, but I can easily see people ignoring this because they need to work as much as they can once everything opens back up.  I hope that someone there is forward-thinking enough to add another hardship waiver for money.  

[ramssuperbowl99]

@incognito_man the results are in. We go live to Jen Bielema for more:

[kingseanjohn]

2 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

It concerns me how easy it was. 

I think seeing it happen in other places first allowed for that.

[dtait93]

2 hours ago, pwny said:

So where does this claim that death certificates are stating cause of deaths are being listed as COVID-19 when they died of something else?

Because this specifically says the exact opposite of that.

 

"In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely."

In other words, it's okay to guess, even though the, "opinion should be based on sound medical judgement." The amount of subjectivity coming in to play is astounding.

"Ideally, testing for COVID–19 should be conducted, but it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate without this confirmation if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty."

The CDC literally isn't even requiring a test to be conducted in order to report a COVID-19 death. This is a problem. It is so easy for the corrupt to twist these numbers.

A perfect example is the infant that passed in Connecticut. The governor explicitly said, "probably the youngest person ever to die of COVID has died here in Connecticut." The state epidemiologist as well stated that because the baby tested positive it was reported properly as a death connected to a positive COVID-19 result. Yet, officials said it is possible the baby actually died from position asphyxiation or sudden death syndrome. This is why we need medical examiners reporting who is actually dying from COVID-19 because as the article correctly states, "Public health officials report daily the total number of people who have died and have tested positive for the virus, either before or after their deaths. But only the medical examiner determines whether the virus or complications it caused actually led to each of those peoples deaths." https://www.courant.com/breaking-news/hc-br-infant-death-coronavirus-positive-20200404-54z75ceqzfei7ajtwskc4ncrua-story.html

[mission27]

4/13/2020 MoL Scores:

"'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate
Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it of"

- Taylor Swift

After a one day hiatus in honor of TLOs Easter rising and a lot of controversy today re our model, mission is back and better than ever with a bunch of really encouraging MoLs today, a couple new Tier 1 countries, and even a new Tier 1 state

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

South Korea: 0.9 (the first country we've seen fall below an MoL of 1, truly amazing!  LIS earlier today MoL's below 5 are not sustainable without eradication so expect this to drift up as the active case numbers fall but South Korea has done a tremendous job here)

Hong Kong: 1.4 (a new #2!  sorry Shady, you've done nothing wrong, but Hong Kong is killing it the last few days)

Australia: 1.9 

Austria: 2.7 (Austria becomes the first country to jump into Tier 1 and just in time as they get ready to open thousands of shops around the country tomorrow, we're all pulling for you guys)

Czech Republic (NEW): 3.0 (we're also going to debut Austria's neighbor also known as Czechia, although those people are lunatics tbh, another country that's planning to open up soon, mission is hoping to be Prague soon, one of his favorite cities) 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Switzerland: 3.8 (Austria leapfrogged them a week ago but Switzerland continues to be one of the top performers in Europe, which makes sense given proximity to Milan and them getting a head start there)

Italy: 4.2 (almost back to their low, its possible Italy will never get down into the 1s or 2s although I bet they dip down there for a week or two, either way they get cases down a bit more and we can start talking about how they get into Tier 1, they've also expanded testing in a big way)

Spain: 5.1 (another great day of numbers for Spain and many workers returned to work today, let's hope the measures put in place can keep things in check and we don't see a big bump in 5-10 days)

Denmark: 5.1 (a couple days ago the MoL was skeptical of their plans to be among the first in Europe to open back up, but the numbers recently have been very strong, we are believers) 

Israel: 5.1 (lets see if we start to see a Passover bump in the next few days, fingers crossed we will not)

Germany: 5.2 (Germany's also talking loosening restrictions despite a higher MoL than Italy or Switzerland, but the MoL thinks its pretty appropriate give their testing capacity, give this a couple more days and we will upgrade to Tier 1 even if the MoLs stay in the 5s)

Iran: 5.7* (no change today, data still seems way too smooth despite the one day blip that was designed to trick the MoL)

Philippines: 5.9

France: 5.9 

Portugal: 6.0

China: 6.6 (TOL made the call yesterday to move China into Tier 2 which is understandable, they are rightly instituting stricter measures near the northern border with Russia as Russia is at risk of becoming the next epicenter, but need to keep this in perspective... if we are really talking about 100ish cases a day that's a sustainable run rate for China without exponential growth as long as they contain it... unless there is further deterioration over the next week we will move them back up to Tier 1)

Sweden: 6.7 (there continues to be no evidence Sweden is fairing much worse than any other country, which goes to show you lockdown may have been an overreaction tbh)

Netherlands: 7.0 (Netherlands is an interesting case it looked like they peaked and were coming back down but then had another mini-bump the last 5 days or so, sometimes these things happen, we think they're finally headed in the right direction long term) 

Global: 7.2

USA: 7.6 (another day and another low for the USA, take a look at the state by states, very promising numbers across the board)

Canada: 8.6 (great to see our friends up north tracking so close to the US, gotta hope they will pull out of this around the same time and we can have a great continent-wide easing of lockdowns starting in May, just behind our friends in Europe)

Belgium: 8.7

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Brazil: 9.5 (bordering on a Tier 2, we will hold off for a bit given shaky data and potential issues)

UK: 10.4 (nice healthy drop here despite big increases in testing capacity, Boris J is out of the hospital, things are looking up)

Turkey: 12.8 (real signs that Turkey has stabilized over the past week, good job)

Japan: 15.0

Ireland: 15.7 (I think this is due to more testing not a real bump in cases tbh)

India: 17.3 (this one truly keeps me up at night.  could be one of the great humanitarian catastrophes of our time, they cannot feed 1b+ people under lockdown and growth is not slowing, thoughts are with India at this time)

Mexico (NEW): 18.7 (Mexico seems to be stabilizing with more minimal distancing, climate has to help here, my guess is the bump we've seen is largely fueled by imported cases from the US, lets hope this fizzles out)

Note on South America: MoL have considered adding a few South American countries, namely Peru, Ecuador, and Chile that have seen some alarming cases numbers in the past week or two, but the data is still very spotty there, so we're holding off for now

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Russia: 24.1 (Russia numbers are unfortunately tracking with the other hard hit countries a month ago and its looking like Moscow could be the next Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, Paris, New York.  This sort of supports the theory that Coronavirus spread is super charged at 35-50 F.  Moscow in Feb and early March is still quite cold, but they are now firmly in that band.  Very unfortunate situation)

USA State Level MoLs

The first US state reaches Tier 1!  Many of you may have wondered over the past few days why Washington State was not in Tier 1, despite very low numbers.  The issue is there is a lag in Washington's reporting which makes the MoL's look overly low, but its finally at a place MoL is comfortable putting it in Tier 1.

Its incredibly encouraging to see the numbers today in New York, Louisiana, California, and a bunch of other states. 

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

Edited April 14, 2020 by mission27

[theJ]

4 hours ago, mistakey said:

its not juvenile.  its literally what goes on in any paper defense ever.  its rigor.

This is a football forum.