Falcons Pick at 4

[CWood21]

15 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Well, it sure helped the 9ers to have rookie Nick Bosa....

Is there a Nick Bosa in this year's draft?

[scar988]

 

13 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

along with 7 other good players on D. Put Joey and Nick Bosa on the Falcons, they'd still need some work.

The Falcons have some good pieces. CB A.J. Terrell, DL Grady Jarrett, LBs Deion Jones and Foye Oluokun all showed they were at minimum above average starters last year. This doesn't include average players like Dante Fowler, Tyeler Davison and Fabian Moreau. Add in potential from guys like Mykal Walker, Marlon Davidson, John Cominsky, Kendall Sheffield and Isaiah Oliver, and they have some solid pieces. But they do need like 4-5 good players. Mainly 2 S and some edge rushers. But it's not a defense completely devoid of talent.

Just now, CWood21 said:

Make that a '22 SRP, and that's probably closer.  Based on the TVC, 9/40 is worth more than 4, and then throwing on a 4th seems like overkill even when taking into account that QB premium.

Bills traded #9, a 4th and 1st the next year to move to 4 for Sammy Watkins. Switching the 4 to a 2 IS the QB premium.

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Bills traded #9, a 4th and 1st the next year to move to 4 for Sammy Watkins. Switching the 4 to a 2 IS the QB premium.

And that put the Bills' future FRP as worth the ~51st/52nd pick.  But you also are upgrading from the 4th round pick the Bills sent out (#115) to the Broncos' SRP (#40).  That's an extra 2nd round pick worth of value.  That's insane value for that 4th pick.  Go back and look at the teams who traded up into the top 5 for a QB, and let's compare packages.

SF/MIA (#3): '21 FRP (#12), '21 3rd Round Pick, '22 FRP, '23 FRP
NYJ/IND (#3): '18 FRP (#6), '18 SRP, '18 SRP, '19 SRP
LAR/TEN (#1): '16 FRP, '16 SRP, '16 SRP, '16 3rd, '17 FRP, '17 3rd
PHI/CLE (#3): '16 FRP, '16 3rd, '16 4th, '17 FRP, '18 SRP
WFT/LAR (#2): '16 FRP, '16 SRP, '17 FRP, '18 FRP

With all of those trades, the QB taken was either the first or second QB off the board.  Not what is likely going to be the 4th QB off the board.  None of those trades except the RG3 trade had a FRP and SRP of the current year PLUS a FRP in the following year.  And I'd argue that those values of pre-draft trades are likely higher than they would have been on draft day since the team giving up those picks don't have the luxury of seeing a team panic with the clock ticking.  If you want that future FRP, then that SRP needs to be a 3rd round pick.  Maybe even a 4th round pick.  You're not getting premium on top of another premium.  And citing what was largely viewed as a massive overpay almost a decade ago doesn't seem like sound logic.

[Heinz D.]

18 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

Problem with that is our new GM decided to fully keep the Ryan era open by restructuring his contract.   Even if we cut him in 2022 we owe him 40 mil in dead cap space and like 20 to 25 mil dead cap space in 2023.   Either way were screwed with the cap with no extra money to add to the defense and help the young QB out.   

It's only a problem if you're dead set on drafting Ryan's replacement. I don't think that's the best idea. I'm confused as to why so many Falcons fans believe that their GM does. I think it's incredibly clear it's just the opposite. 

6 hours ago, scar988 said:

But they do need like 4-5 good players. Mainly 2 S and some edge rushers. But it's not a defense completely devoid of talent.

Which is why I brought up Eddie Jackson earlier. 😁

[FalconFan13]

8 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

It's only a problem if you're dead set on drafting Ryan's replacement. I don't think that's the best idea. I'm confused as to why so many Falcons fans believe that their GM does. I think it's incredibly clear it's just the opposite. 

Which is why I brought up Eddie Jackson earlier. 😁

Were down to 1 safety needed now we grabbed a very solid one in Duron Harmon.  Also im with you on thinking with the moves made we don't target a QB at all.  To me personally it doesn't make sense based on what Fontenot has done this offseason whatsoever.  But i also don't know how Fontenot and company drafts or does things so im scared theirs a option he still might do it lol.     All im saying is if he does end up taking a QB at 4 please let it be one of Fields or Wilson if they fall to us there and please don't let it be Lance or Mac who to me neither are worthy of a top 10 pick.   Atleast at that point where as i won't like the decisions made by the GM of screwing our cap over by restructuring ryan + taking a QB but atleast i'll be happy with the QB we did take and its not a total L on my end lol.

Edited April 16, 2021 by FalconFan13

[Epyon]

My money is that it's either Pitts (for a win now attempt) Trade back to gain picks for next year when they take a shot on QB.

Drafting a QB is the only option I see being an absolute "no".... They're way to invested in Matty Ice to bring in another QB for a few more years, and I'ma be honest with you Atlanta fans, but you aren't close enough to winning a superbowl with what you've got that Pitts, even if he's elite, is going to get you over the edge. I think yall are in the begining of a slow rebuild phase while you wait out Matt Ryan's contract, so loading up on picks is imo the right play.

[BigTrav]

Is there someone who can bring a bit of testicular fortitude to that team? I'm thinking trade back to 9 - 15 range to get Parsons or Horn. They need something like that to bring an edge. 

[goldfishwars]

Man I get that there are many good reasons why Atlanta should be out on QB, but then I think about what Justin Fields would be like in an Arthur Smith offense and how magical that fit would be.

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, goldfishwars said:

Man I get that there are many good reasons why Atlanta should be out on QB, but then I think about what Justin Fields would be like in an Arthur Smith offense and how magical that fit would be.

If for some reason Fields is available, ATL should draft him and trade Matt Ryan, because they can still get a lot of value in return for him. They have a LOT of holes on their roster IMO, and I think a full out rebuild with dumping Ryan's salary and starting over with a Franchise QB, while getting a lot in return for him makes the most sense.

[BowlesDawgDX]

13 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Man I get that there are many good reasons why Atlanta should be out on QB, but then I think about what Justin Fields would be like in an Arthur Smith offense and how magical that fit would be.

Of the QB's left (given Lawrence and Wilson go 1,2), I think he's the only one we would take at 4. Though we wouldn't trade Ryan for at least one year, and possibly 2

[Heinz D.]

7 hours ago, MWil23 said:

If for some reason Fields is available, ATL should draft him and trade Matt Ryan, because they can still get a lot of value in return for him. 

But...trade Ryan to WHO? And for WHAT? 

[Dr A W Niloc]

8 hours ago, MWil23 said:

If for some reason Fields is available, ATL should draft him and trade Matt Ryan

     I can name 31 franchises who think this would be a great idea.

[Cypher]

As a Carolina fan, I just hope they don't sit still and take Pitts. I feel like Pitts being there at 5/6 could mean Chase/Pitts going back to back, dropping Sewell closer to us. C'mon, Atlanta. Don't do us dirty.

[BigC421/]

11 hours ago, Cypher said:

As a Carolina fan, I just hope they don't sit still and take Pitts. I feel like Pitts being there at 5/6 could mean Chase/Pitts going back to back, dropping Sewell closer to us. C'mon, Atlanta. Don't do us dirty.

I don’t see Sewell getting past the Lions.  I also don’t think the drop from Sewell to Slater is all that much.  The upside gives Sewell the edge but Slater is a phenomenal prospect that just checks so many boxes.  As close to a can’t miss as you’ll find imo.  

[INbengalfan]

Atlanta is in such a great position this year.  The question is how close do they think they are to contending this and next year.  The Saints are the reigning division champs.  And they did it with what, a bout 4-5 great games from Brees?  I don't think they drop that much with Winston, as he can't be much worse than Brees post injury.  Then there's the reigning Super Bowl champs in their division too, and Brady looked like he was having way too much fun to quit anytime soon, barring injury.

Do they build around Ryan for his last 2-3 years (and he isn't going anywhere with that contract/cap hit) and take Pitts?  Do they trade back and use more pieces to build around him now?  Or do they trade back for a future haul to rebuild in the next few years when the Ryan/Julio era ends?

 

They could demand just about anything with  QB hungry team.  A bunch of picks now, or more future picks when they want to completely overhaul the team quickly.  That route won't sit well with fans right now, but will have them in line to turn it over when

a) Ryan and Julio hang it up

b) the Saints finally have to pay the price on the cap

c) Brady retires 

 

TL;DR

I could literally see them go in any of those directions.

1.  Stay put and take Pitts

2.  Trade back with a QB hungry team like Denver and target Parsons

3.  Trade back for future picks (multiple firsts and seconds)

Edited April 18, 2021 by INbengalfan